I always like to assume the position of the enemy and try to figure out what their strategy might be. If it is true that a massive ratio trade is going on, where the hedgefunds are long the precious metals and short the PM miners, I assume that they may extend this trade as far as into June. By then the precious metals are bound to correct strongly from overbought levels and that would put a lot of pressure on the PM mining stocks. Surprise, surprise, the result may be that the mining stocks won't go down much, because the hedgefunds will use that opportunity to cover their short positions.

What we need is a lot of fresh money entering the PM mining sector, for instance from former Treasury Bond holders like PIMCO. I am not convinced we will get that event before June, but I am certainly hoping so.