Ed Steer this morning
posted on
May 13, 2011 10:09AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
"I'd sure like to know what Blythe Masters over at JPMorgan is up to in the silver market...but she probably wouldn't take my call."
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Gold traded quietly higher until shortly before 3:00 p.m. Hong Kong time during their Thursday afternoon. The usual not-for-profit seller[s] showed up...and down went the price.
This sell-off lasted until just before lunch in London...and then the price turned higher, but it was obvious from the graph below, that the gold price was not allowed to move as high as it wanted to, as there was a seller there after ever few dollar worth of gains.
The rally ended at the close of Comex trading at 1:30 p.m. Eastern...and then basically traded sideways for the rest of the electronic trading session...but finished up about four bucks on the day. Volume was pretty decent.
The trading pattern in silver was pretty much the same...except that the silver price got sold off shortly after the Comex trading session ended...and the silver price, which had which had made it back into positive territory by that time, got sold off in the electronic market...and closed down about fourty cents on the day. Volume was pretty heavy...but a lot of it was of the HFT variety.
I was encouraged by the price action yesterday. To watch both gold and silver claw their way back into positive territory after being down as much as they were [especially silver] in overnight and early London trading, was very positive.
The dollar didn't do a whole heck of a lot...and its price action had no influence on precious metals prices at all.
The gold stocks pretty much mirrored the gold price action yesterday...but still got sold off for a bit of a loss, despite the fact that the gold price finished in the black, with the HUI down 0.74%.
The silver stocks were definitely a mixed bag yesterday...but it was nice to see some green arrows in amongst the red ones...considering the fact that silver barely poked its nose into positive territory around 1:30 p.m. before getting sold off to close down on the day.
Here's Nick Laird's "Silver Sentiment Index" graph updated with yesterday's numbers.
The CME Daily Delivery Report was pretty much a non-event yesterday...as only 2 gold and 1 silver contract were posted for delivery on Monday.
It was another down day for both precious metal ETFs again. GLD had a chunky 253,424 troy ounce withdrawal...and SLV showed a decline of 780,379 ounces.
The U.S. Mint had no sales report yesterday...and not much happened over at the Comex-approved depositories on Wednesday, either...as only 99,515 ounces of silver were received...and a very tiny 1,959 ounces [two good delivery bars] were shipped out the door.
The Treasury Department auctioned $56 billion in new debt Tuesday and Wednesday, enough to take the U.S. over its federal debt ceiling when the three and 10-year notes settle on Monday.
Treasury officials last month flagged May 16 as the day the government would hit the $14.294 trillion debt limit.
I thank reader Scott Pluschau for this story that was posted over a nasdaq.com yesterday...and the link is here.
This...along with the following two stories...were ones that I lifted from yesterday's King Report.
Sterling advanced versus all but one of its 16 major counterparts, snapping a two-day decline against the shared European currency. “There is a good chance that inflation will reach 5 percent later this year and it is more likely than not to remain above the 2 percent target throughout 2012,” the bank said in its inflation report today. Risks to economic growth are “skewed to the downside,” the report added.
The link to this Bloomberg story is here.
The inflation rate, calculated using a harmonized European Union method, jumped to 2.7 percent from 2.3 percent in March, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. That's an upward revision from the first estimate of 2.6 percent on April 27th. From March, consumer prices rose 0.3 percent, more than the 0.2 percent initially reported.
This Bloomberg piece showed up in the San Francisco Chronicle on Tuesday...and the link is here.
A largely peaceful protest Wednesday by tens of thousands of Greeks against new government austerity measures was marred by violence in central Athens late in the day, when hundreds of youths wearing ski masks hurled water bottles, firecrackers and other objects at police, who responded with tear gas and pepper spray.
This story appeared in yesterday's edition of The Wall Street Journal...and the link is here.
Mr. Soini is the chairman of the 'True Finns Party' in Finland
If that headline seems familiar, it's because I ran this Wall Street Journal story in my Tuesday column. A couple of readers were quick to point out that this version of the story had been given a going-over by the WSJs internal 'thought police'...and several [probably offending] paragraphs were removed.
Here's the complete and unabridged version of this story as it appeared in a posting over a portti.iltalenhti.fi. It's a Finnish newspaper, but this story is printed in English...and, unless your Finnish grammar is first rate, you'll have to scroll down a hair to get to it.
As I said in the preamble to this story on Tuesday..."if you read nothing else in today's column, this would be the story I would choose on your behalf. Europe is about to get a wakeup call."
Since The Wall Street Journal didn't want American readers to see everything that he had to say, that fact alone turns this story into an absolute must read...and I tip my hat to reader Wayne Kompare who dug this up on our behalf. The link is here.
Here's a zerohedge.com piece that I actually managed to find on my own yesterday.
Most have heard by now that Mexico disclosed that back in Q1 it bought 93.1 tonnes of gold, increasing its total gold holdings from 7.1 tons to a whopping 100.2 total tons, a stunning move which was disclosed to have been done "in line with prudent diversification principles of reserves management."
However, what is less known is that many other central banks, chief among them Russia and Thailand were also waving the shiny yellow metal in between January and March. And just as importantly, from the World Gold Council, from where this update comes: "The latest statistics show no significant selling by the signatory central banks in Year 2 of the third Central Bank Gold Agreement.
This is a definite must read...and the nifty graph is worth viewing as well...and the link is here.
Casey Research's own John Grandits sent me this little gem yesterday. Kitco is based out of Montreal here in Canada...but also has warehousing in the USA for its American customers...its major market. If you click on their 'Buy Silver/Gold' tab, they inform you that "Due to [the] recent worldwide surge in the demand for precious metals, we are experiencing extraordinarily high transaction volumes. As a result, you may experience delays in some of our services over the coming days." How about weeks...or months...or indefinitely?
Then if you go in and click on their silver products page...this is what you see. Every item says 'Only shipping to USA'. There's no place on their website to buy silver if you are not a resident of the United States.
Without doubt, all bullion dealers [including my dealer here in Edmonton] are not able to get most silver products in anything remotely resembling a timely manner...and I note that Kitco isn't even advertising 1, 5 or 10 oz. silver products at all. Delivery times for my own bullion dealer is four months on these items.
South Carolina lawmakers are proposing a bill that would give the state another form of legal tender.
Sen. David Thomas, a Republican from Greenville, wants to make gold and silver coins another option in the Palmetto State. Lawmakers are calling it the Sound Money Legislation.
"I'm no financial expert, but I am smart enough to know that you can't keep printing money when it has no backing," says S.C. Republican Representative Mac Toole.
I thank reader Scott Pluschau for his second contribution to today's column, which is posted at the midlandsconnect.com website...and the link to this must read story is here.
With gold over $1,500 and silver around the $35 level, today King World News interviewed one of the top strategists in the world, Robin Griffiths of Cazenove. Cazenove is one of the oldest financial firms on the planet and is widely believed to be the appointed stockbroker to Her Majesty The Queen.
Eric sent me this short must read blog yesterday afternoon...and the link is here.
Here's an audio interview with James Turk that Eric just slid into my in-box just after midnight Mountain Daylight Time. I've had no time to listen to it, as I'm currently writing this column...and have no idea of how long runs...or its contents. But I'll bet some serious coin that the precious metals are discussed at length, so I would think it's a must listen...and the link is here.
"Eric Sprott, one of the most honest financial icons of our time, provides valuable information for your Financial Freedom with this outstanding interview with Max Keiser. Eric was a guest on my show recently and has defined himself as a Freedom Fighter for the public. If only elected officials and regulators had the honesty and courage of Eric. Eric addresses the manipulative take down of the precious metal markets over the past two weeks."
That preamble was written by Dr. Dave Janda over at WAAM Talk 1600 out of Ann Arbor, Michigan...and sent out as a blog yesterday. And as you know, dear reader, I'm quite good at stealing other people's introductions, so I don't have to wordsmith them myself.
The Russia Today interview, posted over at youtube.com, runs a bit over 13 minutes...and is a must watch/listen...and the link is here.
As an aside...the 'good doctor' is having me on his show this Sunday at 4:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time...so if you have nothing better to do, that's where I'll be on that date...and at that time. I'll be posting this interview in my column next Tuesday.
I got an out-of-the-blue e-mail from Bron Suchecki over at The Perth Mint just now...and he provides today's last item for today's column. The title pretty much says it all and, in some ways, I consider this to be the most important precious metals read of the day...as it gives you a real feel for the precious metals market from a refiner's point of view.
In a separate e-mail, Bron had this to say about how The Perth Mint has been sourcing its good delivery bars..."You will be happy to know that with all the demand we are seeing we are pulling silver metal OUT of London, putting more pressure on – by way of explanation, there aren’t really any primary silver mines in Australia, so our direct source of silver is only what we get as a byproduct of gold refining and only amounts to 200 or so tonnes a year and we are selling far more than that, hence to the need to source silver from the bullion banks."
Bron also added this comment...and it comes as no surprise to me..."We have seen increased buying of silver across all business units on this price drop. As you know, retail physical buyers are strong hands, so this is encouraging." My bullion dealer here in Edmonton couldn't agree more.
It's not overly long...but is certainly a must read...and the link is here.
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I'm no financial expert, but I am smart enough to know that you can't keep printing money when it has no backing. - South Carolina Republican Representative Mac Toole...May 10, 2011
Gold's volume on Thursday, net of all roll-overs, was around 180,000 contracts...and the open interest jumped up by a very large 12,347 contracts...and it will be interesting to see what the final number shows later this morning.
Gold's final open interest number for Wednesday's trading day showed a smallish increase of only 393 contracts. This is a dramatic decline from the preliminary number, which showed an increase of 9,174 contracts.
Silver's net volume was in the neighbourhood of 133,000 contracts...which is a very large number...and the preliminary open interest showed an increase of 5,482 contracts.
Silver's final open interest number on Wednesday showed a decline of 416 contracts....a fairly large drop from the increase of 3,216 contracts that the preliminary number showed.
Considering the monster declines in price for both gold and silver on Wednesday, I was expecting better numbers than these for both metals...but there may have been shorting going on...and probably some spread trades placed as well...and maybe some 'raptor' buying. These sorts of activities always hide what's really going on under the hood...and that's why the Commitment of Traders report is so important, as it reveals all. Unfortunately, this won't be in today's COT report...and we'll have to wait until next Friday's report to get some indication of what's really been going on since the Tuesday cut-off for today's report.
Silver's backwardation situation on Thursday was basically unchanged from what it was on Wednesday.
When I posted my Thursday column in the wee hours of yesterday morning, things weren't looking too good for either metal...and I was surprised to see how the landscape had changed by the time I got up in the morning. A big rally back to unchanged was not what I was expecting.
I know that JPMorgan et al are pulling out all the stops to cover their short positions in the silver market, so I guess that this ugly price action of the last two weeks is to be expected...but I'm surprised that the gold price has not 'fallen' more. Is this another shoe that's yet to drop? Beats me, but I'm watching the situation with great interest...and some anxiety. I'd sure like to know what Blythe Masters over at JPMorgan is up to in the silver market...but she probably wouldn't take my call.
Here's the 6-month silver chart...and I must admit that I don't know what to read into the current price action considering the fact that JPMorgan's high frequency traders are stomping about in this market at the moment.
Here's the 6-month gold chart...with an unbroken 50-day moving average staring us in the face.
Neither gold nor silver did much in early Far East trading during their morning...but in the Hong Kong afternoon, both metals had a bit of a rally...and gold is now up about seven dollars...and silver is up a bit over a buck, as of 5:49 a.m. Eastern time. Volume is very decent in both metals.
There's time left to either readjust your portfolio...or get fully invested in the continuing major up-leg of this bull market in both silver and gold...and I respectfully suggest that you take a trial subscription to either Casey Research's International Speculator [junior gold and silver exploration companies], or BIG GOLD [large producers], with all our best [and current] recommendations...as well as the archives. A subscription to the International Speculator also includes a free subscription to BIG GOLD as well. And don't forget that our 90-day guarantee of satisfaction is in effect for both publications.
Since today is Friday...the precious metals trading day in New York could be wild and wooly. I await that with great interest...along with today's COT report...and I'll comment on all this in my Saturday column...and I'll see you then.
Enjoy your weekend.