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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Silver Crash Not a Correction But a 'Drive-by Shooting'

"Volume is the smallest for this time of day that I can remember...especially in gold. So it's obvious that the high-frequency traders are nowhere to be found at the moment."

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

I won't attempt to read anything into Thursday's price action in gold. It spent the entire day within six bucks of $1,493 spot...and closed down about three dollars on the day. Volume was light.

The silver price action had a bit more direction to it...and the standout feature was the high of the day, which came at the London silver fix at noon local time [7:00 a.m. Eastern] which, if you look at the Kitco chart below, also happened on Tuesday as well.

From that high, silver got sold off a dollar, with the low price of the day coming about fifteen minutes after London closed...around 11:15 a.m. Eastern. The silver price then gained half of that back during the rest of the trading day...and closed down about a dime from Thursday. Volume in silver was very light as well.

Once one examines the dollar chart, however...it's plain to see that the gold price mirrored the dollar movements pretty closely yesterday. The dollar trading pattern was all over the map within a very tiny range...and I guess that pretty much explains the gold price action as well...as it followed the dollar almost tick for tick all day long.

The gold stocks followed the gold price like a shadow yesterday as well...and, despite the slightly negative close for gold, the HUI finished up 0.29%. In case you haven't noticed, with the gold price down three out of the last four days, the HUI has finished up every day this week without exception. Let's see how it fares today.

The silver stocks were down slightly on Thursday...but not all of them.

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 35 gold, along with 2 whole silver contracts, were posted for delivery on Monday. The link to that 'action' is here.

The GLD ETF reported no changes yesterday...but it was a different story over at SLV, as a monstrous 7,802,864 troy ounces of silver were withdrawn. Since there was no silver price action to warrant such a withdrawal, it should be obvious to all that a registered participant redeemed their shares and took delivery of their silver, as it was needed more desperately elsewhere.

There was no sales report from the U.S. Mint yesterday...but over at the Comex-approved depositories on Wednesday, they reported receiving 920,915 ounces of silver. They shipped out 502,000 ounces, for a net gain of 418,915 ounces. Wednesday's report is linked here.

¤ Critical Reads

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Goldman Sachs expects U.S. subpoenas soon: report

Goldman Sachs expects to be served subpoenas from U.S. prosecutors seeking more information about the firm's mortgage-related business, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

Goldman's executives expect the Justice Department will ask for documents and other information within days, the Journal said.

This is a Reuters piece from late last night that Washington state reader S.A. sent my way. Two of the three paragraphs contained in this story are posted above...and the last one is not worth your time. But, if you just have to read it, the link is here.

Bullard Says Fed on Hold Until Late ‘11 With ‘Softer’ Data

Well, so much for this much ballyhooed economic recovery. Here's a story that I ripped from yesterday's edition of the King Report.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said the central bank may keep its monetary-policy unchanged until late this year, and that declining inflation expectations have curbed the need to begin withdrawing record stimulus.

"It does take some pressure off the Fed,” Bullard, 50, said in an interview at Bloomberg News headquarters in New York. “I take it seriously that market indicators of inflation have come down. The data has been softer, and these global uncertainties have weighed on markets.”

This is a Bloomberg story that's posted over at businessweek.com...and the link is here.

Bank of Canada's Mark Carney offers a less rosy outlook

Here's a story out of yesterday's edition of Canada's Globe and Mail newspaper in Toronto that was sent to me by reader Richard Murphy.

Mark Carney gave a few members of the public an unusually candid glimpse into his thinking at a private dinner Wednesday night, during which he said people should not judge how well Canada emerged from the recession for years, because the financial crisis is not really over.

Speaking at a fundraising event held by the United Jewish Appeal Federation of Greater Toronto, Mr. Carney, the Bank of Canada Governor, painted a stark picture of the global rebound. He also suggested that America's deficit troubles – which he warned this week could threaten Canada's economy – would probably not be addressed until after next year's presidential election.

This story is definitely worth your time...and the link is here.

QE3 is on its way

Here's a CNBC video out of Hong Kong that's courtesy of Florida reader Donna Badach. It's an interview with Puru Saxena...and he says that QE3 is pretty much baked in the cake...and once the process begins, it will be bad news for the dollar and great news for the precious metals. This is a must watch video...and the link is here.

Tahrir Square in Madrid: Spain's Lost Generation Finds Its Voice

Young people in Madrid have occupied the city's Puerta del Sol square in protest against high unemployment and the political establishment. They are calling for a boycott of the main parties in weekend elections -- and some have begun comparing them to protesters in Egypt earlier this year.

They have been dubbed the "lost generation" with many of them unable to find jobs and forced to live at home as a result of the economic crisis. But now Spain's young people appear to have found their voice -- and they are taking their anger out on their country's politicians.

I thank Roy Stephens for digging this story up yesterday over at the German website spiegel.de...and the link is here.

European Central Bank threatens to pull the plug on Greek lending

The eurozone's central bank has played its "last card" in an attempt to prevent the debt restructuring it fears, said analysts. The cost of insuring Greek sovereign debt rose to more than €1.33m to protect every €10m of bonds as the threat laid bare the divisions in Europe over how to resolve the crisis.

The European Central Bank has threatened to stop lending to banks using Greek government bonds as collateral if Athens changes the terms of the debt, a move which could bring down the country's banking system.

It's absolutely no surprise to me, nor should it be for you, that the ugly threats are starting to fly, as the European financial system [along with its currency] come unglued. This is another Roy Stephens offering from last night's edition of The Telegraph that's well worth reading...and the link is here.

Japan’s economy slips back into recession

Here's another story that I 'borrowed' from yesterday's King Report. This one was posted over at marketwatch.com.

Japan’s economy shrank by almost double the margin economists had expected in the first three months of 2011, as the March disaster pushed the country back into recession.

Gross domestic product contracted by 0.9% during the January-March quarter, marking a 3.7% annualized drop, the Cabinet Office reported Thursday.

This is not an overly long story...and the link is here.


Soros Sells Gold ETF While Paulson Buys - PIMCO Favour Gold as a “Protection Against What Can Go Wrong”

This zerohedge.com story from Tuesday came from Washington state reader Bruce Guthrie. Start reading below the second graph for the information that pertains to the above headline. It's not a big read...and it's well worth it. The link is here.

Silver Shorts Liable to Get Trampled: Richard Russell

Here's a Richard Russell blog that Eric King sent me late last night. The 'R' man has a few things to say about the silver market...and the link to this short, must read blog, is here.

John Embry on why you should buy gold

Here's another interview that was done with John Embry. It was obviously done over at Goldmoney.com...because their logo appears on the video throughout...but the interviewer is neither seen nor heard...and the question are posted in text form.

The video runs 7:55...and is well worth listening to...and I thank Alberta reader B.E.O. for sharing it with us. The interview is posted over at the investmentpostcards.com website...and the link is here.

The Coming Great Inflation: Michael J. Kosares

Since 2001, gold's bull market has been driven principally by systemic risks, not by inflation -- a circumstance that should give us all pause. Add rampant inflation to the mix, and you have the impetus for even stronger demand in the months and years to come. Mexico and the University of Texas are not alone in hoping to shore up their balance sheets with gold. The list in fact grows longer by the day.

Reader U.D. was kind enough to send me this story yesterday that's posted over at Mike's site...usagold.com. It's a longish read...but well worth your time if you have it...and the link is here.


Silver crash not a correction but a 'drive-by shooting'

MineWeb's Lawrence Williams summarizes a discussion of silver conducted last Saturday by Silver-Investor.com's Dave Morgan and including GATA Chairman Bill Murphy, Eric Sprott of Sprott Asset Management, GATA consultant Rob Kirby of Kirby Analytics in Toronto, and James Anderson of GoldSilver.com. The MineWeb story is headlined "Silver Crash Not a Correction but a 'Drive-by Shooting' and 'Criminal Act,' it includes a link to the YouTube audio of the discussion.

I stole 'all of the above' from a GATA release last night. The four videos in question run about fourty-five minutes in total...so I hope you have some on your hands just now...and the link is here.

¤ The Funnies

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¤ The Wrap

A nation that is afraid to let its people judge truth and falsehood in an open market, is a nation that is afraid of its people. - John F. Kennedy

As I mentioned at the top of this column, gold volume was very light yesterday, as a bit under 110,00 contracts net of all roll-overs were traded on the Comex. The preliminary open interest numbers was 4,926 contracts.

Gold's final open interest number for Wednesday's trading showed an increase of 2,844 contracts...and based on the price action, Ted isn't reading much into it, as it could have been spreads put on in the far months. Wednesday's preliminary open interest number showed a healthy increase of 9,910 contracts...so a drop down to 2,844 is quite respectable.

Net volume in silver yesterday was around 55,000 contracts...which is the lowest number I've seen since the 2009 Christmas holidays. The preliminary open interest number for silver was a rather large 3,726 contracts.

Wednesday's final open interest number for silver showed a smallish increase of 1,745 contracts...which is a nice drop from the preliminary number which showed an increase of 5,291. This, too, is probably spread related.

The backwardation situation in silver showed that the premiums widened out by about a penny in the near delivery months yesterday.

Both silver and gold did very little in Far East trading during their Friday...but moments before the London open, both metals got a little friskier...and two attempts by gold to break through the $1,500 price barrier in early London trading were hammered flat by a not-for-profit trader. Volume is the smallest for this time of day that I can remember...especially in gold. So it's obvious that the high-frequency traders are nowhere to be found at the moment.

If this sort of action continues, it could make for a very interesting trading day going forward...so I await the New York open with some interest. Today's Commitment of Traders Report will be of interest as well.

There's still time left to either readjust your portfolio...or get fully invested in the continuing major up-leg of this bull market in both silver and gold...and I respectfully suggest that you take a trial subscription to either Casey Research's International Speculator [junior gold and silver exploration companies], or BIG GOLD [large producers], with all our best [and current] recommendations...as well as the archives. A subscription to the International Speculator also includes a free subscription to BIG GOLD as well. And don't forget that our 90-day guarantee of satisfaction is in effect for both publications.

A note in closing here...I've been as sick as a dog while I've been working on this report. I don't know why I toughed it out when I really should have been in bed. If I feel like this on Friday night...I probably won't be doing a Saturday column. And if there is one, it will be short as I can make it...and very, very late!

I hope your weekend goes well...and I'll see you here tomorrow...maybe.

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