Welcome To The Golden Minerals HUB On AGORACOM

Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.

Free
Message: Ed Steer this morning

Expect $5,000 as US Has to Back Currency With Gold: Richard Russell

"The only way that the bullion banks are going to be able to cover any significant portion of their short positions going forward, is to buy on the upside."

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

The gold price sat around unchanged until shortly before the London open on Tuesday morning. From that point, a bit of a rally began that ended at a later than normal London p.m. gold fix at 10:15 a.m. in New York.

That was pretty much the end of the rally, but after the gold price got sold off about five bucks, it recovered a bit going into the close of electronic trading. Net volume was pretty light.

Silver was the star of the day...and pretty much followed the same price path as gold...although after the high at the London p.m. gold fix, the silver price did go on to set a new high for the day in a sharp rally that occurred in the New York Access market after Comex trading was done for the afternoon. Volume was decent.

The dollar's high came in early Far East trading yesterday morning, as it hit 76.35...and then spent the rest of Wednesday declining very unevenly, finishing almost on its low of the day...and down about 45 basis points from its high.

I suppose that a case can be made that the gold price was influenced by the dollar at some time periods during the day...but certainly not for the whole day.

The shares gapped up at the open...and then followed the gold price around for the rest of the day...with gold's highs and lows pretty much reflected in the HUI, which finished up a very respectable 2.43%.

Not surprisingly, the silver shared did better than their gold brethren. Here's Nick Laird's "Silver Sentiment Index".

The CME Daily Delivery Report showed that 3 gold, along with 17 silver contracts, were posted for delivery on Thursday.

The GLD ETF showed an increase for the third day running. This time it was 146,188 ounces. Since its low on May 18th, which is a week ago today, GLD has taken in 731,000 troy ounces of gold.

The SLV ETF headed in the other direction again, as 1,657,993 ounces were reported withdrawn. Since the same May 18th date as gold, SLV has shed 11.6 million ounces.

The U.S. Mint had a smallish sales report yesterday. They sold another 3,000 ounces of gold eagles...and another 52,500 silver eagles.

The Comex-approved depositories showed some decent activity on Monday. They reported receiving 596,469 ounces of silver...and only shipped a smallish 14,878 ounce out the door, for a net increase of 581,591 ounces. The link to that action is here.

¤ Critical Reads

Subscribe

The Hidden Cost of Saving the Euro: ECB's Balance Sheet Contains Massive Risks

While Europe is preoccupied with a possible restructuring of Greece's debt, huge risks lurk elsewhere -- in the balance sheet of the European Central Bank. The guardian of the single currency has taken on billions of euros worth of risky securities as collateral for loans to shore up the banks of struggling nations.

This sounds suspiciously like what's on the books of all the major U.S. banks as well. I thank Roy Stephens for this story which was posted over at the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and the link is here.

Greece crisis worsens amid political stalemate

Antonis Samaras, head of New Democracy, the conservative party that earlier this month called for a renegotiation of the original €110bn (£95bn) bail-out, said he would not support additional austerity measures, totaling €6bn, to reduce the country's budget deficit. His refusal to back the government could jeopardise both payment of the rescue package's next instalment, of €12bn due in June, as well as ongoing talks over a second bail-out, of as much as €60bn.

The political wrangling came as Vince Cable, the Business Secretary, became the first UK politician to admit openly that Greece has no option but to restructure its €330bn of public debt.

This is another Roy Stephens offering...this one from The Telegraph late last night...and the link is here.

Greece should restructure debt, abandon the euro

Here's a UPI story...also courtesy of Roy Stephens...that was posted on Sunday.

Greece is in crisis again. Athens should restructure its debt and abandon the euro to reassert control over its finances and economy.

Just one year after wealthier EU governments and International Monetary Fund extended more than $150 billion in emergency financing, Greece is unable to meet the aid plan's deficit reduction targets and grow fast enough to make its debt payments more manageable.

The alternatives are endless EU bailouts -- something German and French voters are doubtful to allow -- loss of Greek sovereignty and economic collapse.

The link to the story is here.

EU leaders call for agency to monitor Greek sell-off

I'm sure this will go over well in Greece.

European leaders have raised the possibility of setting up an international agency to oversee the €50bn asset disposal programme promised by the Greek government to pay off its debts.

On Monday, the Greek government vowed to fast track the sale of the country’s gaming-to-ports disposal programme. Alternative proposals have now been put forward by the Netherlands and Finland.

The Dutch plan, led by finance minister Jan Kees de Jager, would see responsibility for the sell-off transferred to international experts. The Finnish proposal would transfer all the companies into a giant government-owned company that could be used as collateral for further EU loans.

You can't make this stuff up. This story was posted in The Telegraph in the wee hours of this morning...and it's another Roy Stephens offering. The link is here.

Lawmakers Alert Watchdog on LME Warehousers

Anti-competition authorities may probe activity by large traders on the London Metal Exchange that also own warehouses, including investment bank JP Morgan, after lawmakers raised concerns.

A parliamentary committee said in a report it was concerned that the same firms that trade metals were able to hold large amounts of metal stored on the LME, the world's top metals exchange, and alerted competition authorities.

As Chris Powell said in the GATA release on this Reuters story..."Maybe someday they'll notice JPM's and HSBC's gold and silver custodianships?" We can only dream...and the link to the story [which is about base metals only] is here.

US Sues Big Oil Traders for 2008 Manipulation

U.S. regulators launched one of the biggest crackdowns on oil price manipulation on Tuesday, suing two well-known traders and two trading firms owned by Norwegian billionaire John Fredriksen for allegedly making $50 million by squeezing markets in 2008.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said traders James Dyer of Oklahoma's Parnon Energy, and Nick Wildgoose of Europe-based Arcadia Energy, amassed large physical positions at a key U.S. trading hub to create the impression of tight supplies that would boost oil prices.

Well, the U.S. government had to find a sacrificial lamb somewhere...and these poor schmucks were it. The CNBC/Reuters story, courtesy or reader 'Elliot' is posted here.

Gensler Says Rising Commodity Prices Shows Need for Swaps Rules

Rising market prices underscore the need for Dodd-Frank Act derivatives rules to curb speculation in commodities such as oil, gold and natural gas, CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler told lawmakers.

“Though the CFTC is not a price-setting agency, rising prices for basic commodities highlight the importance of having effective market oversight,” Gensler wrote in response to a May 11 letter from 17 senators seeking a CFTC plan for curbing crude-oil speculation.

The agency’s proposal, approved on Jan. 13, prompted about 12,000 comment letters from supporters including Delta Air Lines Inc. and opponents such as Barclay's Capital and Cargill Inc.

Most of those 12,000 comments were about position limits in the silver market...but you'll note, dear reader, that the word 'silver' never appears in this story. This Bloomberg piece dances all around that issue.

This short, must read item, is courtesy of Florida reader Donna Badach...and the link is here.

QE having failed, gold revaluation is next: Stewart Thompson

The preamble to this next article, which is posted over at goldseek.com, has already been wordsmithed by Chris Powell. There's so much of it, that I will let him do the honours...and the link to the GATA release is here.

Asian Tiger Sinks Teeth Into Gold

Here's a piece by Frank Holmes over at U.S. Global Investors that was sent to me by reader Craig Eubanks yesterday.

Song Qing, director of Shanghai-based Lion Fund Management, told Bloomberg news that, “Gold has taken on a new role in China amid concern about inflation…Just imagine the total wealth in China and even a small percentage of that choosing to buy gold. This demand is going to be enormous.”

This is a terrific article...and the graphs are worth the trip all by themselves. This is another must read item...and the link is here.

Expect $5,000 as US Has to Back Currency With Gold: Richard Russell

Here's a King World News blog that Eric sent me yesterday. Anything that the 'R' man has to say, is well worth your time...and this short read is no exception...and the link is here.

Silver's tightness could take it to $125, Embry tells King World News

Eric sent me this blog yesterday as well...and I'm just going to do what I like to do best...steal Chris Powell's introduction and include the link.

Sprott Asset Management's chief investment strategist, John Embry, told King World News yesterday that silver supplies are tight and the market riggers won't enjoy an infinite harvest of margined investors who are easily devoured through commodity exchange margin increases. Embry sticks his neck out as far as GoldMoney's James Turk, noting that gold has broken out in euros and pounds and predicting that it well might break out in dollars this summer.

The link to the blog is here.

Join GATA at the Vancouver conference in June

In addition to GATA Chairman Bill Murphy, GATA's secretary/treasurer Chris Powell...and your humble scribe; conference speakers will include many GATA favorites: Al Korelin of the Korelin Economics Report, David Franklin of Sprott Asset Management, Ian Gordon of the Longwave Group, newsletter writer Jay Taylor, Peter Grandich of the Grandich Letter, Thom Calandra of Ticker Trax, Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, Peter Spina of GoldSeek.com, and Jon Nadler of Kitco.

The conference highlights are contained in this GATA release...and the link is here.

¤ The Funnies

Sponsor Advertisement

Legend International (OTCBB: LGDI) is pleased to announce positive and robust results from the expanded feasibility study (1.2 million tonnes per annum of mono-ammonium phosphate (MAP) and di-ammonium phosphate (DAP)) for Legend’s Paradise Phosphate Project conducted by Wengfu Group of China. The results of the feasibility study have confirmed that an expanded development scenario of the project is technically and economically viable and reports a stronger internal rate of return and significantly higher net present value than the base case (600,000 MAP/DAP tonnes per annum as reported July 2010). The financial model is robust across a number of market scenarios.

Highlights of the expanded study and updated base case study include:

>>Significantly higher forecast DAP prices out to 2019.
>>Based on the above forecasts the base case pre-tax NPV% 8.0 has increased from US$1.5 billion (July 2010) to US$2.2 billion.
>>The expanded case feasibility study financial results are:
A pre tax NPV%8.0 of US$4.8 billion.
A pre tax IRR of 27.9%
Average annual EBITDA of US$475 million.
Average annual free cash flow after tax of US$329 million.
Capital payback period of 5.3 years

Please click here to visit our website and view the full release.



¤ The Wrap

Gold, meanwhile, is showing an increasing aversion to going down in US Dollar terms. Every time it "trespasses" below the $US 1500 level, it bounces straight back up again. And every time Gold does temporarily slide, the demand for the physical metal - as distinct for the paper claims on sale in the futures markets - grows apace. Over the first two weeks of May, the US Mint sold 85,000 ounces of American Eagle Gold coins. The last time volume reached that level, the $US Gold price rose 21 percent in the ensuing year. Physical demand in China and in India is surging. South African sales have reached their highest level in almost a year. The list goes on. - Bill Buckler, Gold This Week...21 May 2011

Volume in gold on Tuesday was heavy...until all the roll-overs are subtracted from the total. Then the real volume traded dropped down to a hair over 100,000 contracts, which is pretty light. The preliminary open interest number showed a big increase of 15,593 contracts.

The preliminary number for Monday's trading day showed a big increase of 18,469 contracts...and I had my 'fingers crossed' that there would be a huge reduction reported when the final number was posted yesterday morning. Well, the fingers worked, as the final o.i. number dropped all the way down to a small increase of only 2,303 contracts. I hope this works out as well for Tuesday's final o.i. number.

Silver's net volume yesterday was just under 70,000...which was more than double the volume from Monday. But, considering the price action, this should come as no surprise, I suppose. The preliminary open interest number was a surprisingly small 3,057 contracts. Could yesterday's price action have involved some short covering? The CME's final o.i. numbers, when posted on their website later this morning, will tell all.

Silver's final open interest number for Monday also came in as expected. I was hoping for a small decline...as the preliminary o.i. number showed an increase of only 1,346 contracts...and that's what happened, as o.i. declined a smallish 138 contracts, which is better than the alternative.

The silver backwardation in silver showed that the premiums widened out a bit more yesterday...and in some delivery months are showing a premium of five cents per ounce. Only a week or so ago, that premium was down to a fraction of a penny. But does it mean anything?

Well, we had a nice rally in silver yesterday...and I was happy to see that silver was leading gold for a change. I have no idea whether we've seen the bottom of this move down or not. If we haven't, it's hard to imagine how the bullion banks would be able to engineer the price much lower than they have.

Even if they could, the amount of spec long liquidation they would get may not be worth the effort...as this, as I said before, is 'blood out of a stone' territory in spades. It appears to me that the only way that the bullion banks are going to be able to cover any significant portion of their short positions going forward, is to buy on the upside. The very action of doing this will drive prices of both metals higher...and the bullion banks have been at it since last August. Was yesterday the start of that process in silver once again? Don't know...but I'm sure looking forward to seeing what Tuesday's final open interest number in silver is when the CME posts that number later this morning.

Here's the 6-month silver chart...

And the 6-month gold chart...

Gold and silver prices didn't do much of anything during the Far East trading day on Wednesday...and nothing much happened at the London open either, but silver started showing some signs of life around 9:00 a.m. local time...and hit $37 at one point. The dollar, which had been up over 30 basis points earlier, is starting to roll over. Gold volume is very light...but silver's volume is starting to get up there.

There never seems to be a dull moment in the precious metal markets...and based on what's happening in London as of 5:20 a.m. Eastern this morning...it could be another interesting day when the U.S. bullion banks begin trading on the Comex.

See you on Thursday.

Share
New Message
Please login to post a reply