Ed Steer this morning
posted on
May 31, 2011 09:26AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Buy Silver Once Again: Richard Russell
"JPMorgan's not-for-profit selling has always capped silver price rallies in the past...and it remains to be seen if they return in that capacity this time around."
With America shut down for the Memorial Day holiday, there wasn't much in the way of excitement in the gold market yesterday. The low was at the London open...and gold rose about five bucks from there in very quiet trading action. Volume was virtually non-existent.
Silver was a lot busier. Both rally attempts...one in the Far East and the other going into the London p.m. gold fix...got stopped in their tracks. Volume here was light as well.
And it should also come as no surprise that the dollar didn't do a thing yesterday.
With the American exchanges closed, the precious metal stocks [both gold and silver] in Canada were mostly in positive territory...but there wasn't a lot of volume. Because the U.S. markets were closed, there is no HUI index to report.
There were no Daily Delivery Report from The Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the ETFs, the U.S. Mint...or the Comex-approved depositories.
It wasn't a holiday in Europe yesterday...and over at Switzerland's Zürcher Kantonalbank for the week just past, they reported that their gold ETF took in 25,976 ounces...and their silver ETF added 382,394 troy ounces. As always, I thank Carl Loeb for these numbers.
One thing that I completely missed when I was looking at the CME's Daily Delivery Report [for first day notice for the June gold contract] in the wee hours of Saturday morning, was the fact that 178 silver contracts were posted for delivery on June 1st as well. The big issuer [158 contracts] was JPMorgan in their client account...and the biggest stopper [174 contracts] was the Bank of Nova Scotia for their house account. The link to that action is here.
As I'd mentioned last week, there were a large number of silver contracts still open for June delivery, which is not a traditional delivery month for silver, and that it would be interesting to see how things turned out when first day notice rolled around. Well, we just found out. According to the CME's preliminary report, there are still well over 100 contracts left to deliver in silver in June...and the delivery month has barely started. There will, undoubtedly, be quite a few more than that before the month is through.
Here's a paragraph from silver analyst Ted Butler's weekly commentary that he sent out to his subscribers this past weekend...
"The behavior of the big 4 COMEX shorts on the next silver price rally will determine the nature of that rally, so their behavior will be monitored closely. But I will say this in advance – if the big 4 [JPMorgan] dramatically increase their short position on the next silver rally, I will have no choice but to conclude that the CFTC has crossed the line from being merely incompetent and unresponsive in their handling of the silver manipulation, to being clearly in cahoots with the silver crooks. I know many of you feel that way already, but this will be the litmus test for me."
Reader U.D. sent me this very interesting chart over the weekend. What it says in a nutshell is the Goldman Sachs has now become a bigger credit risk than Citigroup...as the cost to insure Goldman Sachs credit default swaps has really blown out. Citigroup was once the poster child of a 'bad bank'. Goldman is waiting for subpoenas...the ones that Rolling Stone magazine's Matt Taibbi are surely on the way.
The main reason that I have a column today is because of the all stories that I've gathered over the last three days. Normally, I wouldn't have a blog the day after a U.S. holiday...but I don't want to overload you with reading material on Wednesday.
Famed fund manager Mark Mobius, one of the pioneers of emerging-market investing and a staunch advocate for the frontier markets, has made some noise with a simple statement of fact: “There is definitely going to be another financial crisis around the corner because we haven’t solved any of the things that caused the previous crisis,” Mr. Mobius told a lunch gathering of foreign journalists in Tokyo.
The main culprit will again be derivatives, whose effective regulation has been repeatedly stymied by the major financial houses. They make a heck of a lot more money designing and peddling these financial tools when the clients can’t quite figure out their true market value or the risks they entail.
This story was posted late yesterday afternoon in Toronto's Globe and Mail newspaper...and I thank reader George Findlay for sending it along. The link to this very short story is here.
Enda Kenny said Ireland did not need to top up the €85bn (£74bn) rescue package provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and European Union in 2010. "The bail-out programme runs to the end of 2013 and Ireland has sufficient money in all circumstances to deal with that."
Mr. Kenny's comments come after Ireland's transport minister, Leo Varadkar, said Ireland would probably be forced to go cap-in-hand to the EU and IMF for an additional loan before 2013.
I would guess that this is a classic example of Mr. Kenny whistling past the graveyard. This is a Roy Stephens offering from yesterday's edition of The Telegraph...and the link is here.
This story was posted in The Sydney Morning Herald earlier today and was sent to me by Australian reader Wesley Legrand.
Germany has become the first big industrialised power to agree on an end to nuclear power following the disaster in Japan, with a phase-out due to be completed by 2022.
The Environment Minister, Norbert Roettgen, announced the decision yesterday by the centre-right coalition, which was prompted by the crisis at Japan's Fukushima plant, calling it ''irreversible''.
The year 2022 is a long way off...and a lot can change between now and then. We'll see if this decision withstands the test of time...and economic reality. The link is here.
The cold war between Berlin and Frankfurt reached a new high last week.
What's best for Greece and Europe -- a soft debt restructuring or billions of euros in loans for years to come? Berlin and the ECB are deeply divided over the best way to handle the crisis. A number of influential Germans fear the threat of austerity measures could be greater than a "haircut" of Greek debt.
This longish story, posted on the German website spiegel.de yesterday, is courtesy of Roy Stephens...and the link is here.
No! Really? Ya figure? Here's a man with a keen grasp of the obvious.
Many in Europe assume that Greece will ultimately have to default on a portion of its debt. In an interview with SPIEGEL, European Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn, however, insists that debt restructuring is not on the agenda. He also discusses reports that Athens is considering a return to the drachma.
This is another Roy Stephens offering...and the link is here.
More than 100 military officials and soldiers have defected from Libya's armed forces in recent days, according to a group of eight military officers, as pressure mounts on leader Muammar Gaddafi to step down.
The high-ranking Libyan army officers appeared at a press conference in Italy on Monday, where they announced that they were part of a group of as many as 120 military officials and soldiers who defected from Gaddafi's side in recent days.
This story was posted over at aljazeera.com in the wee hours of this morning...and it's an interesting read in the fact that it's as far away from the U.S. media spin machine as you can get. Once again I thank Roy Stephens for this story...and the link is here.
More than half of China's trade, or about $2 trillion, is expected to be settled in yuan by 2015, according to Montgomery Ho, head of commercial banking at HSBC China.
Businesses said the major obstacle to switching to settling in yuan is its acceptability outside of China. Overseas firms find it difficult to secure yuan to pay for goods and have too few channels to use the yuan they receive as payment, the survey found. A lack of support from banks and knowledge about the yuan also pose problems.
This story, posted over at marketwatch.com, is courtesy of reader George Findlay...and the link is here.
Zero Hedge's Tyler Durden comments sardonically today about China's efforts to diversify its foreign currency reserves. His conclusion:
"Slowly China is realizing the joy of an interlinked fiat world: At best it can rotate out of one insolvent regime into another. The bottom line is that all regimes are insolvent. So the only question is whether, or rather when, just like back in April 2009, when China dropped the bomb that over the past six years it had accumulated secretly 454 tons of gold, China will announce that while it has been rotating in and out of paper, the ultimate source of its $3 trillion in U.S. dollar reserves will be non-dilutable commodities, which handily double up as currencies."
I stole this story from a GATA release yesterday...and the link is here.
Bull markets do not move in a straight line, nor do the price of gold and silver. Their price advances, and then retreats to ‘correct’ the previous advance. For the past four weeks, gold and silver have been going through one of these periodic price corrections.
This is a piece that just appeared over at Free Gold Money Report. I don't necessarily agree with everything in here...as I consider what happened to the silver price to be a deliberate act...and I consider JPMorgan et al most excellent at painting any T.A. pattern they wish to do, as they just did in silver.
Anyhow, now that the bottom is in, I agree with all the "bullish divergences" that is talked about further down in the article. It's worth the read...and the link is here.
Here's a short blog posted over at King World News from the 'R' Man himself that Eric King slid into my in-box late last night...and the link is here. The graph itself is worth the trip.
For gold miners, success has been anything but fun lately.
Everything these companies prayed for a decade ago, they got. Collapsing global currencies. A gold pricing rising from US$250 an ounce to more than US$1,500. Incredible earnings and cash flow growth. It played out exactly as the gold bugs said it would, and then some.
Yet you won’t find many gold CEOs with smiles on their faces these days, because over the last 12 to 18 months, their share prices have barely responded to the accelerating gold price.
This is a story out of Canada's Financial Post last week...and I thank reader Howard Brown for sending it along. The link is here.
Here's a GATA release that contains four gold-related stories...all of which suggest that the long-term trend for gold remains favourable. The link to the GATA release is here.
The information about the appearance of imitation gold bars filled with tungsten on the market has turned out to be good news because it has helped curb inflation.
Several days ago Vietnamese people got startled at the information that imitation gold has appeared on the market.
Goldsmith shop owners received offers to sell bullion gold from some dealers from Hong Kong. However, when they cut the gold bar samples, they found that the bars contained only 60-75 percent of gold and had some sediment like fine sand particles, which they thought wolfram.
This vietnamnet.vn story was posted in a GATA release yesterday...and the link to this worthwhile read is here.
Here's another item that I stole from a GATA release in the wee hours of this morning.
Egon von Greyerz, managing partner of Matterhorn Asset Management in Zurich, whose market commentaries often have been cited in GATA dispatches, has been interviewed by GoldMoney's James Turk about the prospects for gold. Von Greyerz notes that all currencies long have been declining against gold and that gold is returning to its role as a reserve currency, but he cautions that investors must hold real metal, not paper, and make sure that it is vaulted outside the banking system. The interview is 28 minutes long...and the link is here.
Sponsor Advertisement |
The “New” War That Could Rocket Oil Past $220 in 2011 This shocking war could be eight times bigger than the wars in Iraq or Afghanistan. It could also be lethal enough to at least DOUBLE the price of gas. Bunker down against soaring energy costs with ONE "safe haven" financial plan that could protect you and pay impressive gains.. Full Story Here |
While President Obama regales his G-8 peers with oratorical flourishes appealing to the “strength” and “goodness” of the partnership of the West in leading the world towards democratic nirvana, the US (and the UK) are doing everything in their power to bring on a European financial crash. The treatment meted out to Greece and the rest of the “PIIGS” by US ratings agency-induced angst in the financial markets would instantly collapse US (or UK) government finances. But as long as the focus is “elsewhere”, they can continue to muddle through. The singular focus on Europe as the supposed only home of government debt distress has reached levels of fantasy and hypocrisy seldom equaled in the long history of trans-Atlantic sovereign “relations”. - Bill Buckler, The Privateer, 28 May 2011
The preliminary volume figures were finally posted on the CME's website for the Friday trading day at some point over the weekend. Gold's little rally on Friday increased the open interest by a rather chunky 10,016 contracts...subject to revision later this a.m.
Silver's preliminary open interest on Friday showed an increase of 3,125 contracts, despite the fact that silver didn't do much of anything on Friday. I'm sure the final o.i. number will be much lower.
The backwardation situation in silver on Friday, didn't show any material changes from what it showed on Thursday.
I note that the dollar fell out of bed in early Far East trading this morning [7:00 p.m. New York time last night]...and the gold price headed south as well. But now that London has opened [3:00 a.m. Eastern time]...both metals, especially silver, have caught a bid.
Silver is currently sitting at $38.67 as I write this at 3:36 a.m. Eastern. Silver's 50-day moving average is at $39.19...and it will be interesting to see if silver is allowed to break through this moving average. Here's the 1-year silver chart.
Then, as Ted Butler has pointed out above...and countless times before that over the years...who will be there to go short against all the tech funds that will most certainly return to the market on the long side...or to cover short positions?
In the past, it has always been the U.S. bullion banks. JPMorgan's not-for-profit selling has always capped silver price rallies in the past...and it remains to be seen if they return in that capacity this time around. If they do...then the rally will get capped at some point in the future. If they don't...well, you can just pick some 3-digit silver price.
It's the last day of May...and today's trading activity in both metals could prove interesting. I await the Comex open with great interest.
See you on Wednesday.