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Message: Ed Steer this morning

All Hell Could Break Loose If Confidence Cracks: Hathaway/Sinclair

"Once the last long that is willing to sell, has sold...then prices can go no lower. That's just the way the futures market works."

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

Despite the fact that the dollar had been on a tear for over twelve hours, the gold price was only down about four bucks by the time the precious metals began to trade on the Comex on Thursday morning.

The gold market basically went 'no bid' the second the Comex opened, as the U.S. bullion banks disappeared as buyers...and the price was down eighteen bucks in less than thirty minutes. From that point, the gold price 'fell' another eight bucks to its absolute low at 2:45 p.m. Eastern in the New York Access Market.

Once that low was in...the gold price recovered that eight bucks by the close of electronic trading at 5:15 p.m. Eastern. Not surprisingly, volume was enormous.

Of course it was silver that JPMorgan was really after...and they got it pretty good...as it was under selling pressure all day long...besides at the Comex open. The low of the day was $34.61 spot...and that low was set at 2:30 p.m. Eastern time right on the button. At that particular juncture, silver was down $1.73 from Wednesday's closing price in new York.

But then the selling pressure disappeared...and silver gained back about sixty cents of its loss in the balance of the electronic trading session in New York, closing down $1.03 spot from Thursday. Volume, net of all July contract roll-overs, was almost double Wednesday's volume.

Both platinum and palladium were also sold off yesterday, but came under selling pressure much sooner than gold and silver. And even though the lows for both metals came in the New York trading session...most of losses that these two metals experienced came long before the Comex open in New York.

As I mentioned in the opening paragraph of this column...and in the closing comments in 'The Wrap' section of yesterday's blog...the dollar was on a tear. This rally began at precisely 10:30 a.m. on Thursday morning...and came to an end about twenty-three and a half hours later at the London p.m. gold fix minutes before 10:00 a.m. New York time yesterday.

During that time period, the world's reserve currency gained about 130 basis points.

From that high, the dollar gave back about 50 basis points of its gain by the close of trading in New York at 5:15 p.m. Eastern.

It was obvious that the dollar's big rally was totally unrelated to what happened to the gold and silver price both yesterday...and Wednesday. The prices of these two metals on those two days, was entirely a U.S. bullion bank [read JPMorgan] driven phenomena.

Here's the 3-day dollar chart to put it all in perspective.

The precious metal stocks gapped down at the open...and stayed down until the miraculous recovery in the Dow that began just moments before 3:00 p.m. Eastern yesterday. The gold stocks gained back over two percentage points by the close...and the HUI finished down only 1.31% which, in the face of what happened to the price, I consider to be a win.

Despite the fact that silver got creamed the worst, the silver stocks finished mixed on the day...as there were a lot of green arrows in my stock list...which [except for one] is all silver equities. I was amazed [and comforted] by this strength in the face of such a ferocious sell-off in the metal itself. Here's Nick Laird's 'Silver Sentiment Index'...which was only down 0.42%.

The CME's Daily Delivery report showed that 94 gold contracts were posted for delivery on Monday. Prudential issued 40 of those contracts...and JPMorgan issued the other 54 from its client account. JPMorgan stopped/received 84 of those contracts in its proprietary [house] account...so JPMorgan was obviously trading against its own clients again. There were no silver deliveries posted...and there will probably be only a handful delivered for the rest of the month.

There were no changes in GLD yesterday, but over at SLV they added another 926,172 troy ounces of silver...despite the fact that the silver price got it in the neck. Go figure.

The U.S. Mint reported selling another 30,000 silver eagles yesterday...2,595,500 so far this month.

The Comex-approved depositories reported a big silver withdrawal on Wednesday. This time it was 1,426,355 troy ounces..all out of Brink's, Inc. They received a miniscule 6,003 ounces on the same day.

Just as a matter of interest, my bullion dealer had a huge sales day yesterday, so the 'buy the dips' crowd is still alive and well.

Here's a interesting look at U.S. Emergency Oil Reserves...and I thank Washington state reader S.A. for sending it along.

¤ Critical Reads

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Weekly U.S. jobless claims climb to 429,000

Here's a very short [one paragraph] story that was posted over at marketwatch.com yesterday...and I thank Florida reader Donna Badach for sending it along...and the link is here.

US man stages $1 bank robbery to get state healthcare

Unemployed and without health insurance, a North Carolina man has himself arrested in order to receive treatment.

It was not perhaps the most obvious way of getting a bad back, arthritis and a dodgy foot seen to. But if you're unemployed in North Carolina with no health insurance, there is no obvious way.

So on June 9th, James Verone left his Gastonia home, took a ride to a bank and carried out a robbery. Well, sort of.

This is a very sad read...and shows you just how bad things have really become. I thank reader Dave Delve for sharing this story out of Tuesday's edition of The Guardian...and the link is here.

The Food-Stamp Crime Wave

The number of food-stamp recipients has soared to 44 million from 26 million in 2007. Not surprisingly, fraud and abuse are rampant.

Millionaires are now legally entitled to collect food stamps as long as they have little or no monthly income. Thirty-five states have abolished asset tests for most food-stamp recipients. These and similar "paperwork reduction" reforms advocated by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) are turning the food-stamp program into a magnet for abuses and absurdities...and the Obama administration is far more enthusiastic about boosting food-stamp enrollment than about preventing fraud.

This is another amazing story...and is from yesterday's edition of The Wall Street Journal. I thank Washington state reader S.A. for sharing it with us...and the link is here.

Why I Was Arrested Yesterday at a D.C. Taxi Commission Meeting

If the last story was sad...this 5:05 minute vide is shocking...but gratifying at the same time.

On June 22, 2011, Jim Epstein attended a public meeting of the D.C. Taxi Commission for a story he was working on about a proposed medallion system in the district.

About 30 minutes into the meeting, he witnessed journalist Pete Tucker snap a still photo of the proceedings on his camera phone. A few minutes later, two police officers arrested Tucker. He filmed Tucker's arrest and the audience's subsequent outrage using his cell phone.

What happened after that is simply amazing to watch. Casey Research's own Dave Galland sent this video out yesterday with the comment that..."The reaction of the audience is great. This sort of thing is now out of control...but not nearly as out of control as it is going to get if this sort of crap continues."

The 5 minute video is posted over at reason.com...and is a must watch. The link is here.

JPMorgan Gets a Break Where Goldman Got Nailed: Jonathan Weil

This is an op-ed piece by Bloomberg reporter Jonathan Weil...and is a follow-up to a story that I ran on JPMorgan in yesterday's column.

"Once again the Securities and Exchange Commission has filed a complaint against a too-big-to-fail bank that hinges on the meaning of one word: “selected.” Last year, the bank was Goldman Sachs, which the SEC accused of intentional fraud. This week, the defendant was JPMorgan, which got far easier treatment.

"Why the different approaches? The agency isn’t saying. Judging by the allegations, both companies in essence did the same thing. Yet JPMorgan caught a break, and Goldman didn’t.

These are questions I was asking myself when I posted that JPMorgan story in my Thursday column...and Jonathan has some rather ugly answers.

The story is worth skimming...and I thank Washington state reader S.A. once again for sending it along...and the link is here.

Max Keiser and Marc Faber - Bernanke Is a Murderer

Here's a short piece that's posted over at thedailybell.com...with a 3:37 minute video with RT's 'Mad' Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert imbedded in it. The short article is worth skimming...but the video is worth your time. I thank Roy Stephens for sending it along...and the link is here.

Trichet Says Risk Signals Are Flashing Red as Debt Crisis Threatens Banks

“On a personal basis I would say ‘yes, it is red’,” Trichet said late yesterday in Frankfurt after a meeting of the European Systemic Risk Board, referring to the group’s planned “dashboard” to monitor risks. “The message of the board is that” the link between debt problems and banks “is the most serious threat to financial stability in the European Union.”

The yield difference, or spread, between 10-year German bunds and Greek securities of a similar maturity was at 1,388 basis points today, up from 1,317 at the beginning of the month. Swaps on Greece rose 25 basis points to 2,012, signalling an 82 percent chance of default within five years, according to CMA.

This Bloomberg story from yesterday is very much worth reading...and I thank Scott Pluschau for sending it. The link is here.

Bad for Business: Euro Crisis Has Decimated Greek Private Sector

Consumption has plunged in Greece and so too have the profits of several small and mid-sized companies in the country. Many say that the government isn't doing enough to help -- and a new round of austerity could make the situation even worse.

This was a story posted over at spiegel.de yesterday...and I thank Roy Stephens for sharing it with us. The link is here.

Papandreou Budget Hole Threatens to Swallow Europe, Defies Fix

Here's another story from Washington state reader S.A...and it showed up posted over at Bloomberg on Wednesday.

The 256 billion euros in aid committed to Greece, Ireland and Portugal have done little more than buy time against a looming default, says Andrew Balls, Pacific Investment Management Co.’s head of European portfolio management. The cost to insure senior debt of 25 banks and insurers has climbed to 162 basis points from 120 on April 8, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. prices. Insurance against a sovereign default, the most expensive in the world, indicates a chance of more than three in four that Greece will be forced to restructure its debt.

Greece will be soon be followed by Ireland, Portugal...and Spain. This is a situation that can't be avoided. Actually it can, but the central banks of the world would have to re-monetize and re-price gold in order to prop up their balance sheets, which is a possibility that still looms large somewhere in the near future. The link to the story is here.

The Emerging New Monetarism: Gold Convertibility To Save The Euro

Writing at the Forbes blog site, Ralph J. Benko, editor of the Lehrman Institute's Gold Standard Now project, notes the steady increase in suggestions about returning currencies to gold convertibility, including one from Nobel Prize winning economist Robert Mundell, regarded as the inventor of the euro.

I stole the above preamble from a GATA release yesterday...but credit for the story goes to reader U.D...and the link is here.

Rising Gold Production Cost, Very Uneven From Miner To Miner

One of the major caveats related to gold mining and gold prices has been the rising cost of production. Higher labor costs, higher energy costs, and lower grade ores have all contributed to boosting costs. The good news has been that rising prices for gold have been at least keeping pace, if not rising faster.

This is a factor that most investors don't take into consideration when purchasing a mining stock. It's an interesting read for the newbie gold investor...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for sharing it with us...and the link to the article [posted over at 247wallst.com] is here.

Frank Holmes Sits Down to Discuss Gold at the Morningstar Investment Conference

Here's a 6-minute video interview with my friend Frank Holmes that's also courtesy of reader Elliot Simon. Frank is CEO and chief investment officer over at U.S. Global Investors. It's posted over at usfunds.com...and the link is here.

Gold encumbrances question elicits only hearsay at Paul committee hearing

GATA's Chris Powell was in attendance at Ron Paul's meeting about U.S. gold reserves yesterday.

The hearing was held in Washington by the House Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy and Technology on legislation proposed by the committee's chairman, U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, to audit the U.S. gold reserve.

Chris has written extensively about this meeting in the GATA release linked here...and it's well worth your time.

Sinclair and Hathaway tell King World News: Hell could break loose if confidence cracks

This is a KWN blog...and Chris Powell has already written the preamble, so why should I re-invent the wheel. It's a longish read but certainly a must read from start to finish...and the link to the GATA release is here.

¤ The Funnies

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¤ The Wrap

As I mentioned in the opening paragraph, gold volume yesterday was very heavy. Once all the roll-overs were removed from the gross volume...the net volume was 225,000 contracts. The gold price finally penetrated its 50-day moving average for the first time...but it wasn't down there for very long. I would guess from the volume, the price action...and the preliminary open interest number [down 6,565 contracts], that there was pretty substantial tech fund long liquidation yesterday. So this morning's final o.i. number for gold should show a hefty decline.

Wednesday's final open interest number showed a very large increase of 9,555 contracts. That will all be negated [and more] after yesterday's price action.

Silver's net volume was around 63,000 contracts, but the preliminary open interest number showed an increase of 3,109 contracts. On a price decline of that severity, I was expecting better than that, so I'm hoping the final number later this morning will shed some more light on what really happened yesterday. The only explanation I can come up with at the moment, is that there was shorting going on...and if that's the case, we won't get a sniff of that until next Friday's Commitment of Traders report.

Silver's final open interest number on Wednesday showed a decline of 879 contracts...and my guess that someone was either covering short positions, or a spread trade was removed.

The July delivery month for silver is coming up hard, so the roll-overs out of that month are coming fast and furious, as everyone has to be out by next Wednesday...or stand for delivery. First Day Notice for delivery into the July silver contract will probably be posted on Wednesday evening on the CME's website...and I will report on it in next Thursday's column.

Here's the 1-year gold chart. The 50-day moving average got penetrated by about six dollars...and knowing JPMorgan et al as well as I do, I would suspect that they're not done to the downside just yet. We'll need a major penetration of that moving average to flush out the balance of the tech fund longs. I've been saying that this has been coming for at least six weeks now...and that moment has finally arrived.

And as I also said, 'da boyz' are going to use that opportunity to beat the silver price down as well. As you can see, everything is going according to Hoyle. This is all out of JPMorgan's playbook, as these sort of engineered price declines have been going on for decades. And, as is always the case, the CME, the CFTC...and your silver companies, will do nothing.

Here's the 1-year silver chart.

The question remains as to how many longs they can get to liquidate before the bottom is reached. Once the last long that is willing to sell, has sold...then prices can go no lower. That's just the way the futures market works.

In overnight trading, gold hasn't done much of anything price-wise...but silver has been under pressure since around noon Hong Kong time...and has already taken out its low from yesterday in early London action this morning...but has recovered quite a bit as of 5:23 p.m. Eastern time.

Volume in gold is already pretty chunky...and silver's volume is getting up there as well. But silver's true volume would be a fraction of what it currently is, if JPMorgan's high frequency traders weren't mucking about.

Since today is Friday, nothing would surprise me when Comex trading begins this morning. I'm prepared for anything...and I hope you are too.

Today we get the latest COT report for positions held at the close of trading on Tuesday, June 21st. At precisely 3:30 p.m. Eastern, sharp...click here, and all will be revealed to you.

It never feels good when we're in the middle of one of these JPMorgan-engineered price declines...but I've been through this many, many times over the last twelve years...and as I keep saying...this, too, shall pass. I'm still 'all in'.

While the blood is running in the streets, there's still time left to either readjust your portfolio...or get fully invested in the continuing major up-leg of this bull market in both silver and gold...and I respectfully suggest that you take a trial subscription to either Casey Research's International Speculator [junior gold and silver exploration companies], or BIG GOLD [large producers], with all our best [and current] recommendations...as well as the archives. A subscription to the International Speculator also includes a free subscription to BIG GOLD as well. And don't forget that our 90-day guarantee of satisfaction is in effect for both publications.

Enjoy your weekend...and I'll see you here tomorrow.

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