I spoke with Bill Murphy today and I will be posting a commentary about the deal for the Cafe this evening. I just left a VM for Altman so I hope I have a chance to speak with him too and get some answers. I have been buying shares and wrts of ECU all morning in small batches trying to grab some cheap stock. I think this deal is great for shareholders but I also think people do not understand the transition and why it will build a stronger company. When there is confusion people sell. There are several analysts that follow both ECU and AUM and some updated guidance is going to come from them in the days ahead. I think that will be bullish and will help to calm the market and encourage buying.
To me the biggest problem is people think they are losing leverage from a 1:20 swap. My point of view is that AUM can easily go from $20 to $60 if the new merged company can effectively communicate a strategy that will demonstrate aggressive growth, along with a consolidated silver resource that will make it one of the top players in the world. ECU shareholders should also take comfort that we will no longer be hanging under the threat of a share rollback, a death spiral in new cheap shares issued, or a bankruptcy that could have resulted from a default on the debt outstanding. To me that potential uncertainty is why the stock had trouble trading above a buck for the last couple of years.
I think there is a lot of confusion while people try to get up to speed on this deal. I am bullish and look forward to more guidance from management to help resolve some of this.
cheers!
mike