Ed Steer this morning
posted on
Jun 25, 2011 09:45AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Ron Paul Worries That Fort Knox Gold is Gone
"The big story this week was the engineered decline in the gold price below its 50-day moving average by JPMorgan et al "
The gold price did virtually nothing during Far East and early London trading on Friday...and opened in New York unchanged from its Thursday evening closing price.
But that state of affairs didn't last, as the selling began very shortly after that. The slow price decline lasted until the close of Comex trading at 1:30 p.m. Eastern time...and basically traded flat from there until the close of electronic trading at 5:15 p.m. in New York.
Volume was heavy, but not nearly as heavy as Thursday.
As is nearly always the case...the silver price was more 'volatile' yesterday...and the silver price was down about seventy cents shortly before the New York open.
Within fifteen minutes of the New York open, the silver price shot up to within eight cents of Thursday's closing price...but that was silver's high tick of the day, as the price headed lower from there.
But, unlike gold, the selling didn't stop at the close of trading on the Comex. It continued until silver hit its low tick of the day [$34.07 spot] shortly before 4:00 p.m. Eastern time. From there, the bullion banks disappeared...and the price recovered a bit into the close of the New York Access Market. Volume was pretty heavy.
The dollar finished up about 25 basis points on Friday, but never got above its Thursday high price.
Here's the dollar's chart for the week that was. From the Sunday night open until the Friday afternoon close, the dollar gained an underwhelming 35 basis points. But gold got hit for about $39...and silver was down about $1.50.
The gold stocks headed down from the open...but I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the sell-off had to do with the decline in the general equity markets. The HUI finished almost on its low of the day.
The interesting thing to note is that even though gold was down about $39 on the week...the HUI actually finished up about one percent over that period of time.
Virtually all the silver stocks were down on the day...and Nick's Silver Sentiment Index declined by 2.78%...but was still up on the week.
The CME Daily Delivery Report showed that 417 gold contracts were posted for delivery on Tuesday...and it was the same old routine. The Bank of Nova Scotia delivered 372 contracts...and JPMorgan delivered 43 contracts out of its client account. JPMorgan was, once again, the big receiver/stopper with 375 contracts in its proprietary [house] trading account.
The GLD ETF was unchanged once again...but, for the third day in a row, there was another deposit in the SLV ETF. This time it was 1,072,397 troy ounces.
There was a smallish sales report from the U.S. Mint yesterday. They reported selling 3,000 ounces of gold eagles, plus another 500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes. Month-to-date the U.S. Mint has sold 45,000 ounces of gold eagles...2,500 one-ounce gold buffaloes....and 2,595,500 silver eagles.
The Comex-approved depositories didn't receive any silver on Thursday...but they shipped 831,201 ounces of the stuff out the door.
The Commitment of Traders report [for positions held at the close of trading on Tuesday, June 21st] did not make for happy reading in either silver or gold.
In silver, the Commercial traders increased their net short position by 2,340 contracts...and their current short position rose to 177.8 million ounces. The bullion banks did cover some short positions, but Ted Butler said that it was the big 4...and the big 8 bullion banks, and the smaller commercial traders [the raptors] that sold long positions. This is what accounted for the increase in short position.
In gold, the bullion banks increased their net short position by 13,818 contracts...and the Commercial net short position has now blown out to 25.1 million ounces.
Without question, most of these increases in short position have all vanished since the big price smash-down on Thursday and Friday...and we'll have to wait until next Friday's COT report before we see the results of the last two trading days. This particularly applies to gold, as the price is now below its 50-day moving average...and the tech fund long liquidation has been enormous over the last two days.
Here's Ted Butler's "Days of World Production to Cover Short Positions" courtesy of Nick Laird over at sharelynx.com.
Before I get to my stories for today, I want to share this incredible photo that was sent to me by reader 'Rocky R' a few weeks back. It was taken just a few seconds after the magnitude 6.3 earthquake struck Christchurch, New Zealand on February 22, 2011.
Based on Google Earth, I'd say that this photo was taken from the lookout in Victoria Park in the Harbour Hills, which is just a few miles south of downtown Christchurch. In the few seconds following the quake, the concrete and drywall dust got blown into the air from the collapsing buildings...and someone with a camera happened to be in the right place at the right time.
Since it's Saturday, I get to unload my in-box with the stories that just wouldn't fit during the week, so you'll find all of those in today's column.
My first story today is from yesterday's edition of The New York Times...and is courtesy of reader Phil Barlett.
A drumbeat of disappointing data about consumer behavior, factory sales and weak hiring in recent weeks has prompted economists to ratchet down their 2011 economic forecasts to as little as half what they expected at the beginning of the year.
“The likelihood of a negative surprise is bigger than the likelihood of a positive surprise,” said Jerry A. Webman, chief economist at Oppenheimer Funds.
This is a 2-page read...and the link is here.
Bank of Italy Governor Mario Draghi was appointed as the next president of the European Central Bank, avoiding a delay that risked complicating the handling of the sovereign-debt crisis.
Draghi’s appointment was approved at a summit of European Union leaders in Brussels today, an EU spokesman said. The 63-year-old Italian will take over from Jean-Claude Trichet as the head of the Frankfurt-based ECB, beginning an eight-year term on Nov. 1st.
This is a short Matt Taibbi blog that's posted over at rollingstone.com...and the link is here.
Security forces opened fire as thousands of anti-government protesters took to Syria's streets in a weekly ritual of defiance and demands for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's ousting.
Activists said at least 15 people were killed and many more injured in demonstrations following Friday prayers.
People had barely come out of Ibn Affan Mosque in the Damascus suburb of Al Qusweh, chanting for a toppling of the regime when security forces, apparently without warning, opened fire on the crowd killing, six people and wounding 15, Mohammed Suliman, a human rights activist, told Al Jazeera.
This is a story posted over at aljazeera.com yesterday...and the 1:35 minute video clip imbedded in the article is worth looking at as well. I thank Roy Stephens for the story...and the link is here.
Jamil Saeb stared intently into the bluish light of his laptop screen, feverishly editing video as antigovernment chants rose up the hillside from the makeshift refugee camp on the valley floor below.
There have been few outside witnesses to the three-month popular uprising against the Assad family’s 40-year rule of Syria, which has unfolded behind a rolling Internet blackout and efforts to bar foreign journalists from the country. The world has depended largely on online videos of both protests and the government’s violent crackdown, which activists say has left more than 10,000 jailed and over 1,300 dead.
For many, their cameras started to roll at the dawn of the protest movement in mid-March. Mr. Saeb used to record protests and uploaded the video using a dial-up modem. That was until he lost Internet service several weeks ago when the government cut it off in Jisr al-Shoughour and the surrounding countryside, he said.
He and the others then moved to the border zone. Here, people are as likely to speak Turkish as Arabic, and cell phones are as likely to pick up a signal from Turkcell as from Syriatel, a telecom giant owned until recently by a cousin of President Bashar al-Assad, which cut off mobile Internet 3G service here weeks ago.
This very interesting New York Times story is one that I've been saving since last weekend...and it's another Roy Stephens offering. The link is here.
Central banks around the world have started buying gold and this tells the world they believe it has value and it is an important asset to back up their currencies and their economies, Michael Haynes, CEO American Precious Metals Exchange, told CNBC.
This short cnbc.com story was sent to me by Florida reader Donna Badach...and the link is here.
This is the opening Statement by U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, Committee on Financial Services, Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy and Technology Hearing on HR 1495, the Gold Reserve Transparency Act...Thursday, June 23, 2011
Ron's speech is imbedded in a GATA release yesterday...and it's well worth the read. The link is here.
Along with Chris Powell's personal account of the above hearings that I posted yesterday, there are also two more stories on this important event. The link to the CNN story is here...and the report from the Mineweb is here. Both were posted as GATA releases yesterday...and both are must reads...especially the CNN story. It bears the headline "Ron Paul worries Fort Knox gold is gone".
On Friday, Business Insider reported a remark apparently made by bond trader Bill Gross of Pimco suggesting realization that market intervention, by or under the influence of government to suppress inflation indicators, extends to silver.
I stole this preamble from a GATA release yesterday...but the first one through the door with this story was reader 'David in California'...and the link to this very short item is here.
Panel makers consume about 11 percent of the world’s supply of silver, the material in solar cells that conducts electricity. The metal has appreciated 74 percent to $35.30 a troy ounce on average so far this year from $20.24 last year.
Prices for solar cells have dropped about 27 percent this year and would be even lower if each panel didn’t require about 20 grams of silver, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
Roy Stephens sent me this must read Bloomberg story yesterday...and the link is here.
Eric King sent me this [and the interview below] in the wee hours of this morning. I haven't had a chance to listen to either one, but I'm sure both are worth your time. The link to the Ben Davies interview is here.
As you know, anytime Jim Rickards is talking...I'm listening. And, as I said yesterday, I'm looking forward to meeting him at the GATA Conference in London during the first week of August. The link to the interview is here.
Here's a James Turk offering posted over at his goldmoney.com website.
Sir Isaac Newton invented the gold standard circa 1700. The gold standard undoubtedly ranks as one of his greatest achievements given that it became the backbone of the British Empire.
The pound was “as good as gold”, as the saying went, and the pound banknote was accepted around the globe as a substitute for gold itself – but not always. The paper-pound was willingly accepted until there was a banking or financial crisis, which meant the quality of the currency and the reliability of banks became questioned.
At those moments – which occurred with surprising frequency – there was a rush to gold because of its safe haven attributes.
This is an excellent read...and I thank reader 'Charleston Voice' for sharing it with us...and the link is here.
Gold may gain as concern about Europe's debt woes and sustained record-low interest rates in the U.S. spur demand for the metal as an alternative investment, a survey found.
Twelve of 16 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, or 75 percent, said bullion will rise next week. Two predicted lower prices and two were neutral.
Well, dear reader, the gold [and silver] prices will rise as soon as JPMorgan is through doing what it's doing...and not one minute before. The Greek crisis didn't matter one iota when the 'drive by shooting' occurred on May 1st...and JPMorgan's high frequency traders did the dirty late Sunday night on that date.
Interest rates don't matter, the dollars machinations don't matter...and neither does the price of tea of China. It only matters what JPMorgan et al are up to...and if they are on the short side of the trade during the next rally. If it wasn't for them, gold and silver prices would have gone to the moon years ago.
I thank Roy Stephens for this Bloomberg piece...and the link is here.
This is your long read of the day...and it was sent to me by reader U.D. earlier this week.
It's a piece by PFP Wealth Management out of London...and it was posted on their website on June 20th. Here's a snippet...
"The inflationary resolution is impossible within the Euro zone, in no small part because the Bundesbank rightly nurses the collective German race memory of hyperinflation nearly a century ago. So painful debt deflation mixed with the inconsistent application of austerity, spiced with the sporadic threat of outright default, seems to lie ahead for Europe. The US, on the other hand, seems more interested in the inflationary outcome, if monetary and currency policy (if any) are any judge. Hardly an auspicious investment landscape for the bulls."
This 5-page commentary is a must read from one end to the other...and the link is here.
This last item of the day has nothing to do with gold, silver...or finance of any kind...but it's a topic that's near and dear to my heart.
I used to work for NASA at the rocket range in Churchill, Manitoba back in the late 1960s...and this is the sort of high-altitude research we were doing at the time. As a radio operator in those days, what was going on with the sun determined how well we could communicate with the outside world when I was living in the High Arctic. When the sun was acting up, our communication system just sat their useless for days on end...except for line-of-site VHF.
This story is one that I found posted over at spaceweather.com...an Internet site I visit daily. It's an extremely interesting read [at least it was for me] and the link is here.
Sponsor Advertisement |
Since April 2010, Gold Is Up 24.7% Silver has outperformed gold by nearly 500% in the last year, and there is no end in sight. Don’t wait for $60 or $70 silver before you get in – act now to make the most of the steaming bull market, and to protect your assets from runaway inflation. The Casey 2011 Silver Investing Guide tells you all about different kinds of silver bullion and silver proxies… the two things about silver supply and demand you need to know… an astonishing interview with a bullion insider… and much more. |
Last week's 'blast from the past' was from the late 16th century in Italy. Today's 'blast' is somewhat newer...and 'Made in the U.S.A.' The link is here.
Gold volume yesterday was in the neighbourhood of 169,000 contracts once all the roll-overs were removed. Silver's net volume was around 50,000 contracts. These were certainly lower volumes than we had on Thursday, but still up there.
The preliminary open interest numbers for gold yesterday showed an increase of 3,456 contracts...and silver's o.i. was up a very small 674 contracts. I expect the final CME o.i. numbers on Monday morning to show significant reductions in both...unless yesterday's price decline in both metals involved shorting by the tech funds, which has the effect of increasing open interest.
The final gold open interest number for Thursday showed a monstrous decline of 17,689 contracts. As I said in my Thursday column...considering the price action, this drop should be no surprise. In silver, o.i. actually showed an increase of 479 contracts, which I would guess to be shorting by the technical funds. Of course all of this is hidden from us until next Friday's COT report.
The big story this week was the engineered decline in the gold price below its 50-day moving average by JPMorgan et al over the last few days.
As you can see from the 3-year gold chart below, the 50-day moving average has been penetrated many times over the last few years...but the price hasn't even come close to the 200-day moving average...and the last time it did was two and a half years ago. Can they or will they make it this time? Nobody knows...except JPMorgan.
Here's the 3-year silver chart. You can see where JPMorgan began to cover its short position by buying longs in the open market. That began in late August last year...and the effect on the price was immediate.
The silver price is more than three bucks above its 200-day moving average at the moment...and the same question applies to silver as it does to gold. Can 'da boyz' get the price that low...and if they can get it that low, just how many/few contracts are they doing to be able to cover at those price levels, as virtually every speculative long holder in the tech fund category had fled the scene of the crime long ago.
I'm speculating here, but with the July delivery month in silver coming up next week...all the roll-overs out of that month [except those standing for delivery next Thursday] will be complete...so there should be little need for JPMorgan to continue its assault on the silver price. We'll see if that's the case or not.
Just one more time I'd like to mention the fact that Casey's Extraordinary Technology newsletter has a new promotion that the gals at CR HQ sent me earlier this week. Tech stocks are not my bailiwick at all...but if they float your boat, this offer may be of interest to you. To find out more about this promotion, please click here.
That's all for another week...and I'll see you here on Tuesday.