Re: further reflection on the merger
in response to
by
posted on
Jun 25, 2011 12:55PM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Hi Jny!
I did read your post. I must respectfully disagree in your opinions, because I think you are looking at the numbers incorrectly. The 'loss' that AUM has reported is because they are an exploration company. There is no way for AUM to generate earnings at their current stage of activity. One must value this company in terms of the results they have gained from this money that has been invested. If they have outlined new resources, that creates value for shareholders, but it does not appear on the balance sheet as a profit. Instead the 'profit' shows up in capital gains for shareholders as the value of the stock rises. ECU also enjoyed this discovery premium a few years ago, rising several hundred percent in value even as the company was losing money by investing in exploration.
Now the long term success will be generated by the ability of management to convert that money burning exploration and development expense into the money earning mine that can run at a profit. I like to use Osisko Exploration as a model for how to do this right. They were 'losing' money for 7 years while the took a property and advanced all the way through the development curve to build a huge new mine. Now the mine is making money, all of that cost will be repaid, and the company is rising in value and generating earnings. So too can we look to AUM for a similar growth path.
Consider ECU for the last few years. The market was telling us that they were a long shot to achieve that ultimate success. If we did not find a partner, either through a merger or a JV, then we were facing yet another painful PP with a discount, new stock dilution, new shorts playing the cheap paper, another sleazy brokerage house skimming millions off the top in fees and commission and then dumping paper after, and weeks of dead money until the deal closed.
I will take a positive merger of equals and be happy to own a chunk of a much stronger company. This deal is 2 + 2 = 5 in my opinion. The Newco will have all three ingredients needed for success: the properities with the potential for a large profitable mine, the people with the skills to build it, and the money to pay for it and raise more money as needed with a strong share structure. Case closed.
In short, rather than considering the situation from the perspective of whether THEY get more or WE get more, think that this Newco is jointly owned, and we all get a better deal than prior to the arrangement. Everyone wins. If you accept the deal and your stock gets rolled into AUM shares, you will probably find that AUM is a fast rising company because the market will value in all of the enhanced potential and the stock will be attractive for investment with a bright future.
One final point: By issuing $15 million to ECU as part of this deal, we can continue to fund development and keep the drills running flat out. Any additonal success from this piont forward will contribute to a higher share price for both companies, because it is a MERGER and not a takeover. If ECU hits a fat MS zone, then ECU itself can run up sharply in value, and drag AUM along with it. IF it was a takeover, say at $1 a share, then there would be no upside for ECU shares from a big discovery subsequent to the closing of the transaction. I hope people understand this very important distinction.
I do not own any shares of AUM at this time. And as everyone knows by now, I am paid a small advertising fee by ECU to run a banner on my website. My comments and opinions are purely my personal views as an individual investor.
cheers!
mike