Today is the option expiry for COMEX July contracts. All contracts must be sold by this afternoon unless the contract holder has the funds to stand for delivery. So this is usually the easy day for shorts to punch the price down as low as possible to ensure as many of those contracts are out of the money as they can, and to motivate specs to roll over into the next contract month.

Expect the usual rally into the close this afternoon as the shorts cover, and then a big move higher tomorrow. I am hopeful that this will represent the lows for the entire summer right here. The COT structure indicates most of the spec long position has been squeezed out of silver so there is less profit motivation to attack the metal further from here. However if this commodity smackdown is intended to be a political statement to suggest that inflation is limited, by attacking oil, metals, and food grains at the same time, then perhaps they will not be finished leaning on the metals.

Also keep in mind that when the best weeks for gold and silver start off, we are usually lower on the monday morning. I have observed that the Cartel likes to start off every new trading year, every new quarter, and the first trading day of each week with a selloff. Look it up on the charts and tell me if I am wrong. Odd for metals that have been in a continuous bull market for 10 years to always start off in selling mode, unless you understand that we do not have free markets.

cheers!

mike