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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Central Banks Pull Most Gold in a Decade From BIS

"As I've said many times in the past, the dollar and gold are only joined at the hip when it suits the financial powers-that-be...and for the moment, it doesn't suit them."

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

The gold price wandered around within five bucks of $1,530 spot for the whole of the Thursday trading day on Planet Earth. Nothing to see here, folks...please move along. Volume was on the light side.

The silver price pattern was somewhat more interesting...but only just. The price was up about a percent by 1:30 p.m. Hong Kong time...and then declined back to about unchanged by noon in London...7:00 a.m. Eastern.

At that point, a rally barely worthy of the name got underway...and the silver price hit its high of $36.75 spot just minutes before 2:00 p.m. in the New York Access Market. From that peak, the price faded a hair into the close. Volume was average.

The dollar opened flat...and starting about 11:00 a.m. Hong Kong time, the dollar began a bit of a rally...and at its peak was up about 45 basis points around 8:30 a.m. in New York.

Then, in the next two and a half hours, the dollar plunged a bit over 50 basis points, with the bottom coming at 11:00 a.m. Eastern time right on the button. It then traded flat for the rest of the day...closing below 75 cents...and almost on its low of the day.

If you can find any co-relation between the dollar price action and the gold price action yesterday...please feel free to e-mail me and point it out.

As I've said many times in the past, the dollar and gold are only joined at the hip when it suits the financial powers-that-be...and for the moment, it doesn't suit them.

Despite the relatively flat gold price, the stocks themselves were doing just fine. This wonderful state of affairs lasted until shortly after 2:00 p.m. Eastern time, when someone decided to mark them down a bit. The HUI closed up, but only by a rather disappointing 0.30%.

The same can be said for the silver stocks...as most of them closed well off their highs...and a fair number were in the red for the day. Nick's Silver Sentiment Index was up only 0.55%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

It sure makes you wonder who would sell a rally so hard...and in such volume...that it would drive the prices down by over a percent while they were doing it.

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that no gold...and 24 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Monday. Only 377 silver contracts have been delivered so far in the July delivery month.

There were no reported changes in either GLD or SLV yesterday.

The U.S. Mint reported selling another 28,000 silver eagles yesterday...and have sold 456,000 of them so far this month.

The Comex-approved depositories reported receiving 1,000 ounces of silver on Wednesday...and shipped 419,942 ounces out the door. The link to that action is here.

Here's the M1 Money Multiplier graph which was sent to me by West Virginia reader Elliot Simon yesterday. In his covering e-mail, Elliot commented that "Anything under 1.0 means that there's no lending, no velocity of money...and indicates [economic] contraction no matter what the government says that GDP is." Elliot is right, this chart shows that paper assets of all kinds are going through a deflationary cycle. This is definitely a chart that's worth following over the months and years ahead.

(Click on image to enlarge)

¤ Critical Reads

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Treasury Officials Weighing Options To Avoid Default

Senior officials, including Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, have repeatedly said there are no contingency plans if lawmakers do not give the U.S. government the authority to borrow more money.

But behind the scenes, top Treasury officials have been exploring ways to prevent a financial meltdown that would be triggered if the government was unable to pay its bills on time, sources told Reuters.

This Reuters piece was posted over a the Huffington Post yesterday...and I thank Roy Stephens for sending it along. The link is here.

A year after Dodd-Frank, CFTC tackles manipulation

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which has been beset by delays as it carries out last year's Dodd-Frank financial reform law, on Thursday finalized five rules, including one that will give it more muscle to crack down on market manipulation and fraud.

"This closes a significant gap as it will broaden the types of cases we will pursue and improve the chance of prevailing over wrongdoers," said Gary Gensler, the CFTC's chairman. "It is a significant rule."

We'll see if it has any effect on JPMorgan's obscene short position in silver, as this will be the acid test of whatever new rules that Gensler is crowing about. Reader Jim Davis sent me this Reuters piece. It's not overly long...and the link is here.

Europe, Free Speech, and the sinister repression of the Rating Agencies

Here's an Ambrose Evans-Pritchard offering from yesterday that was sent to me by Roy Stephens. Ambrose is up on his high horse here...

"Before we all join the chorus of abuse against the robber agencies, let us not lose sight of what is happening in the eurozone. The EU authorities are attempting to muzzle free opinion, first by threatening Fitch, Moody’s, and S&P with vague retribution, and then by drafting restrictive laws to prevent them from publishing unwelcome messages."

"It is financial repression, pure and simple. The same will be done to the press in due course. Then to you, dear reader."

The problem with this piece from yesterday's edition of The Telegraph is that Ambrose forgets one very important detail...and that is that the U.S. financial and monetary situation is just as grave, if not worse...but the U.S. rating agencies are hardly raising a word about it. It's pure hypocrisy...but it's still worth the read...and the link is here.

Fear of Junk Status: Europe Seeks to Free Itself from Rating Agencies' Grip

The "Big Three" credit rating agencies can determine the fate of entire countries, by deciding whether they are creditworthy or not. Now Portugal is under pressure after Moody's downgraded its debt to junk status. European politicians want to create an alternative, even though they helped give so much power to the agencies in the first place.

But why are European politicians and investors still so dependent on the opinions of three private companies based in New York and London? After all, the Big Three were the subject of massive criticism in the wake of the 2007-2008 financial crisis, because they had awarded top ratings to highly risky financial products in the run-up to the crunch. Since then, politicians have repeatedly called for measures to curb the agencies' power.

This story from the German website spiegel.de...and it's another Roy Stephens offering...and the link is here.

ECB tightens noose on Southern Europe

The European Central Bank has raised interest rates a quarter point to 1.5pc to curb inflation and signaled more to come, despite faltering growth in southern Europe and acute stress in peripheral bond markets.

Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB's president, brushed aside warnings that tightening at this delicate juncture might push Spain and Italy into the danger zone, insisting that every eurozone country stands to lose if the ECB fails to anchor price stability. Inflation risks "remain on the upside", he said, using coded language that opens the door to further rate rises over the Autumn.

This is another Roy Stephens offering, this one from yesterday's edition of The Telegraph as well...and the link is here.

Kitco moves into creditor protection

Faced with tax claims of more than $300 million from Revenu Québec, embattled Montreal-based gold trader Kitco Metals Inc. now is officially in creditor protection, until July 27.

Kitco, which is contesting the tax assessments, can continue to carry on business as before under the court ruling.

The company was one of more than 100 targeted in a Revenu Québec investigation that last month resulted in searches and seizures at 70 locations in and around Montreal.

The story appeared in yesterday's edition of The Vancouver Sun...and the link to this must read story is here.

Kitco Precious Metals Approved Dealer Status: Perth Mint News

Gold Corporation (trading as The Perth Mint) wishes to advise that Kitco Metals Inc (“Kitco”) has requested that its Approved Dealer status be suspended temporarily. This action has been prompted by the appointment of RSM Richter Inc, at the behest of Kitco as Interim Receiver to Kitco. Gold Corporation has agreed to Kitco’s request, but stresses that this action should not be interpreted in any way as expressing any opinion whatsoever on the outstanding matter between L’Agence du Revenu du Québec and Kitco.

This two-paragraph news release from The Perth Mint is another must read as well...and the link is here.

Judy Shelton, Lew Lehrman argue for bringing gold back

Here are a couple of stories about a new gold standard that are contained in this GATA release. Since Chris has already provided a preamble worthy of the name...I shan't bother. Both stories are worth your time...and the link is here.

Discrepancies found in Fed and Treasury gold statements

Financial writer Adam Rabie, CEO of GoldNews.com in Toronto, has examined Federal Reserve and Treasury Department statements involving the U.S. gold reserves and reports discrepancies. Rabie concludes:

"There appear to be many gaps in audit work already done. The remaining issues that stand are that past audit work was not thorough or of a strict enough standard to ensure against possible misstatement. In short, independent auditors are often not directly involved in the physical audits and rather are admittedly working off of numbers provided to them by a potentially biased party. Furthermore, there have been no thorough and complete checks on whether the Treasury's use of their gold stock complies with current legislation, in particular the Gold Reserve Act. In addition, a lack of matching between Federal Reserve and Treasury financial statements calls into question some possibly obvious and odd errors. Moreover, there still lacks any audit on the Treasury's gold held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the working stock of gold. Lastly, the issue of encumbrances remains as a major possibility of abuse of the Treasury's gold stock and will be difficult to settle without an extensive audit of all historical government financial dealings."

Rabie's report is headlined "On Auditing the Treasury's Gold" and it's a story [plus the preamble] that I stole from yet another GATA release...and the link is here.

Gold gains an average of 3.4% on currencies in first half of 2011

Here's another interesting GATA dispatch where Chris Powell has already done the heavy lifting for me once again. The intro shows how gold has performed against all currencies for the first six months of 2011. This short piece is well worth skimming...and the link is here.

Gold stocks to out-sparkle gold in post-QE2 world: Analysis

Here's another story from Roy...this one from Reuters yesterday...and the headline pretty much says it all.

Gold's performance has eclipsed that of gold mining stocks this year, but gold equities now are likely to take the upper hand as the flow of cheap U.S. cash slows and miners boast juicy margins and good growth prospects.

Gold's status as a quasi-currency and safe haven has helped pushed the price of the metal up about 20 percent since the start of the year to above $1,520 an ounce, making it one of the top performing asset classes of 2011.

That compares with an 8 percent drop in the ARCA Gold Bugs index, which includes shares in some of the world's largest gold miners.

This story is well worth your time...and the link is here.

Central banks pull most gold in a decade from BIS

Central banks have pulled 635 tonnes of gold from the Bank for International Settlements in the past year, the largest withdrawal in more than a decade.

The move, disclosed in the BIS's annual report, marks a sharp reversal from the previous year, when central banks added to deposits of gold at the so-called "bank for central banks" rather than lending it directly to the private sector amid growing concerns over counterparty risk.

Chris Powell adds the comment that..."Do they want to get it back in their own vaults before the fiat currencies hit the fan?" That's a very good point.

The story is subscriber protected in the Financial Times, but is printed in the clear in this GATA release...and the link is here.

Pennsylvania family's fight for rare coins reaches court

A federal jury in Pennsylvania began hearing a tale Thursday that has long fascinated coin collectors: how a Philadelphia family ended up with a stash of exquisitely rare 1933 Saint-Gaudens "double eagle" $20 gold coins that the U.S. Mint never circulated.

This truly is an amazing story. I have two yahoo.com posting of two AP items...both of them a little different. The first is courtesy of reader Craig Eubanks...and is linked here. The second came from a GATA release late yesterday...and the link to that story is here.

What will replace dollar as global currency?: Matthew Lynn

In London last week some smart businessmen launched the country's first gold ATM. Stick in your credit card or some cash, and the machine will swap your plastic or paper money for a small bar of the real stuff.

That may well tell us that London remains, as it always has been, a place where monetary entrepreneurs flourish.

But it tells us something else as well. The role of money in the global economy is one of the big themes of this decade. Gold is on the up. The euro is falling apart. And, perhaps most importantly of all, the dollar is in long-term decline.

This is a marketwatch.com story that I ripped from another GATA dispatch...and the link is here.

Microcap Trading: Changes on the Way? - MUST READ

A lot of readers have expressed concern to me about the buying and selling of certain over-the-counter [OTC] foreign microcap stocks that trade in the U.S. in American Depository Receipt [ADR] form, including some of the Canadian securities covered in International Speculator and other Casey Research publications. This rule is to kick in on July 15th.

Well, I have some good news for most of those concerned. The issue was addressed fully in yesterday's edition of the Casey Daily Dispatch...and is an absolute must read for all. It's under the sub-heading "Microcap Trading: Changes on the Way?"...and you have to scroll down a bit to find it...and the link is here.

James Dines Predicts Silver to Reach $300 - $500 an Ounce

"What’s going to happen to the price of silver is it’s going to go up, way up. All you had to do was close your eyes and hold it and shut your panicked membrane to all of the fools who say it’s too high. I tell you now that the price of silver is going far higher than anybody realizes. it’s going far higher than $50, it’s going to test the $100 an ounce level, and beyond that somewhere between $300 and $500 an ounce. Believe the unbelievable or not.”

This is a blog posted over at King World News that Eric sent me late last night...and the link is here.

India to import 350 tons of gold, 1200 tons of silver

India’s state-owned trading company—Minerals and Metals Trading Corporation (MMTC)—said on Thursday that it would import 350 tons of Gold and 1,200 tons of Silver in 2011-12 as demand for the precious metals is rising fast.

Prakash said that import of gold by MMTC in the current fiscal is expected to increase by more than 40 per cent with the yellow metal fast emerging as a safer investment option.

The company almost doubled its import of gold at 45 tonnes during the April-June quarter this year compared to the same period last year, he added. He said besides gold, the demand for silver is rising as it gives better returns.

This CommodityOnline.com story was posted from New Delhi yesterday...and I thank Florida reader Donna Badach for sharing this very short must read item with us. The link is here.

¤ The Funnies

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¤ The Wrap

With gold's quiet trading day yesterday, volume was equally light...around 92,000 contracts net of all roll-overs. The preliminary open interest number showed a smallish increase of only 1,717 contracts...so the final number will show a decline for the Thursday trading day. I'm happy about that.

Gold's final open interest number for Wednesday rally showed an increase of 5,545 contracts...which is about a 50% drop from the preliminary number. So what the bullion banks covered during gold's short covering rally on Tuesday, they put back on during Wednesday's rally...plus another 1,300 contracts on top of that.

Silver's net volume yesterday was around 44,000 contracts...but most of that [as it is every day] was made up of high frequency trading by JPMorgan. If they weren't stomping about, I'd guess that total daily silver volume would be well under half of that number. The preliminary open interest number showed a smallish increase of only 1,176 contracts, so I'd guess the final number should show about unchanged for the Thursday trading day.

Silver's final open interest number for Wednesday showed a small decline of 111 contracts. I'm speculating here, but it seems obvious to me that silver's rally since last Friday's lows has had an undercurrent of bullion bank short covering to it. Today's Commitment of Traders Report could prove interesting.

July open interest in silver continues its relentless fall, with another 212 contract decline reported in the preliminary report in the wee hours of this morning. The remaining open interest for July sits at 753 contracts. At this rate, open interest will be at zero by the end of next week.

Both gold and silver did little during the Far East trading day on Friday...but both are down a bit now that London is open for business. Volume in both metals is the lowest I can remember for this time of day. The dollar, as of 4:51 a.m. Eastern time, isn't doing much of anything.

Before signing off for today, I just want to remind you one last time that Casey's Extraordinary Technology newsletter has a new promotion that the gals at CR HQ sent me a week or so ago. Tech stocks are not my bailiwick at all...but if they float your boat, this offer may be of interest to you. To find out more about this promotion, please click here.

I hope you have a great weekend...and I'll see you on Saturday. I hope that this Saturday's report doesn't get 'Lost in Space' like my offering last Saturday did.

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