Ed Steer this morning
posted on
Jul 23, 2011 01:11PM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Coming Gold Mania Will Dwarf That of '70s - Pierre Lassonde
"I'm not sure what kind of reaction we're going to get in the gold and silver markets once the U.S. 'resolves' its budget deficit ceiling issue."
The minor sell-off that occurred in gold shortly after the London open yesterday morning, proved to be the low of the day. From there the gold price rose about $22...before getting sold off and closing a hair above the $1,600 price mark. Volume was down a lot from previous days.
Silver's path was very similar...with the lows and the high following gold's right to the minute. Silver's high of the day, along with gold's high, came minutes after 10:30 a.m. Eastern. Silver then got sold off a bit, closing a few pennies over the $40 mark. Volume was pretty decent.
With closing prices of $1,600.30 and $40.07 respectively...you didn't need a calculator to figure out the gold/silver ratio at the close yesterday.
The U.S. dollar didn't do a whole heck of a lot...but managed to finish above the 74 cent mark. Here's the 5-day dollar graph for the week that was...and it's not a happy looking chart, is it?
The gold stocks pretty much followed the gold price for the entire trading day...and the HUI finished up 1.17%. Here's the 5-day chart. The 1:30 p.m. Eastern time bullion bank bear raid on Tuesday, July 19th is the only reason why the HUI didn't finish up on the week.
Despite the fact that the silver price did well yesterday, the stocks themselves turned in a rather lackluster performance...with most closing well off their highs of the day. But Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index rose 1.95% regardless.
(Click on image to enlarge)
The CME's Daily Delivery Report for Friday showed that 21 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Tuesday. Jeffries issued 20 of these contracts...and the Bank of Nova Scotia and JPMorgan stopped/received 18 contracts between them.
The GLD ETF showed a smallish decline on Friday, as 29,219 troy ounces were withdrawn...and there was no reported change over at SLV.
The U.S. Mint had a good sized sales report yesterday. They sold 4,500 ounces of gold eagles...2,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...along with 347,500 silver eagles. Month-to-date the U.S. Mint has sold 40,000 ounces of gold eagles...10,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 2,317,000 silver eagles. Ted Butler says that the mint is stamping out silver eagles at its maximum capacity.
The Comex-approved depositories reported receiving no silver at any of their warehouses on Thursday...but shipping out 639,844 ounces of the stuff. The link to that action is here.
Friday's Commitment of Traders report was pretty much as expected...with the bullion banks increasing their short position in both metals for the reporting week that ended on Tuesday, July 19th at the close of Comex trading.
The bullion banks increased their net short position in silver by 2,023 contracts...which is a hair over 10 million ounces...and they increased their net short position in gold by a chunky 19,565 contracts, or 1.96 million ounces of gold. Price-wise, both gold and silver didn't do a lot during the week that was...and Ted Butler says that the COT report is mostly market neutral...and prices could go either way. Next week's COT report will be educational as well.
Here's a link to the visual graphs of each COT report for the last twelve months. You can see how the Commercial traders are increasing their short positions against the Non-Commercial and Nonreportable traders in both metals during the last couple of weeks. The gold graphs are here...and the silver graphs are here. They're worth a few minutes of your time.
Here's a new graph that Nick Laird sent me yesterday...and it certainly says a lot. There are three things on this chart...the U.S. Debt, the increasing debt limit...and the gold price. One has to wonder how high the new U.S. debt ceiling will drive the gold price.
(Click on image to enlarge)
Since it's the Saturday edition...I've got a lot of reading material for you today, so I hope you have the time to wade through all of it over the weekend.
Football fields, soccer fields...and the Statue of Liberty figure prominently in this most excellent graphic display which is an absolute must view.
I thank Peter Handley for sending this 'picture'. It's posted over at theinformedbroker.com website...and the link is here.
Reader Ken Metcalfe sent me this op-ed piece posted over at Bloomberg yesterday. I stole the above headline from the GATA release...but the Bloomberg headline to the story reads "Default Now, or Suffer a More Expensive Crisis Later: Ron Paul".
This is a longish read...but a must read for you sometime over the weekend...and the link is here.
High Frequency Traders are trying to spruce up their image a bit...
For years they have operated in the shadows, often far from Wall Street, trading stocks at warp speed and reaping billions while criticism rose that they were damaging markets and hurting ordinary investors.
After quietly growing to account for about 60 percent of the seven billion shares that change hands daily on United States stock markets, the firms are trying to stave off the regulators who are proposing to curb their activities.
Well, the SEC can start with JPMorgan's high frequency traders in the silver market.
This story was in Monday's edition of The New York Times. It's very much worth the read...and I thank Mike Smith for sharing it with us...and the link is here.
Here's a story that appeared in the on-line edition of The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday.
When the Dodd-Frank financial-regulation overhaul became law last July, Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Gary Gensler raced to implement new rules assigned to the agency.
But as the landmark law nears its first anniversary on Thursday, Mr. Gensler's zeal has triggered a backlash.
Republicans in Congress have moved to cut the CFTC's budget, curb its power and request time-consuming analyses for every proposal. Some commissioners are irked by Mr. Gensler's aggressive approach. And crucial parts of the $600 trillion global market for derivatives, which many observers believe played a central role in the financial crisis, remain free of new regulations.
The story is subscriber protected, but is printed in the clear in this GATA release...and the link is here.
Here's another subscriber-protected story that appeared in Thursday's edition of The Wall Street Journal...this one about the secretive 'banker's bank'...the BIS. The WSJ headline reads "Where Buenos Aires Hides its Cash".
In December 2001 the Argentine state was finally served the bill for decades of economic Peronism. The government decided to default on a debt worth some $81 billion—the largest debt default in international monetary history. Now, 10 years later, international investors who lost significant sums still have no way of knowing whether they'll ever get their money back -- thanks in part to the Argentine government's unwitting accomplice, the Basel-based Bank for International Settlements.
I'd say this is a must read...and I thank Washington state reader S.A. for bringing this story to my attention. The link to the GATA release is here.
Products get knocked off all the time -- designer bags, Oscar-night dresses, watches. But entire stores? That's something new. Which is why the Internet is going crazy over a blogger's report that three fake Apple stores have popped up in her neighborhood in Kunming, China.
In a post dated Wednesday on the blog BirdAbroad, the citizen reporter (an employee of an international public health organization) said she was initially duped by the quality of the fake Apple store. It had the iconic clean wood interior, the Apple branded posters on the walls, the employees with those tell-tale blue polo shirts and chunky name tags hanging around their necks. The store appeared to sell real Apple products.
Her husband bet it was a fake, she bet it wasn't. When they got home they looked online and found that Apple doesn't have any stores in Kunming. A few days later she walked down the street and bumped into two more Apple store knock-offs!
I bet you get a free 'ROLEX' watch with every 'Apple' computer! I thank reader Joseph Weiler for sending along this L.A. Times story from Wednesday...and the link is here.
This is a story that was sent to me a week ago, that just wouldn't fit in a regular weekly column, so here it is today.
Since Deng Xiaoping, China’s leaders have been obsessed with “food security” the same way America’s are haunted by not having enough oil. And as Chinese diets become more meat centric, fears of the dangers in the fluctuation of pork prices led China to establish a top-secret “strategic pork reserve” in 2007, the only one of its kind. But maintaining all those pigs has led to a massive dependence on corn and soybean imports for animal feed, which in turn is leading China’s agribusinesses to fan out abroad in a quest to control the means of production. China's attempts to control the means of production in other countries just rising out of developing world is causing tension with its natural allies, and could be just the first step in an ever-escalating series of resource-based conflicts.
This rather longish read posted over at fastcompany.com was sent to me by reader U.D. last Saturday...and the link is here.
Egypt has given the nod to plans for a gigantic bridge across the Red Sea. It would provide the first direct road link between Arab North Africa and the Middle East -- but the project could upset Israel and Jordan.
Egypt and Saudi Arabia hope to construct a giant bridge spanning the Gulf of Aqaba for road and rail traffic. Officials at Egypt's Ministry of Transportation have confirmed to SPIEGEL that the project, under discussion since 1988, has finally been approved.
The Gulf of Aqaba runs along the eastern edge of the Sinai Peninsula. Plans call for the 32-kilometer (20-mile) bridge to cross the narrow Strait of Tiran from Ras Nasrani, near the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, to Ras Hamid in northwestern Saudi Arabia. Parts of the bridge would be suspended.
I would suspect that Saudi Arabia is going to foot virtually the entire bill for this project.
This story was posted over at the German website spiegel.de on Monday...and didn't really fit with the rest of my weekday stories, so here it is in my Saturday column. I thank Roy Stephens for sending it along...and the link to this very interesting read, is here.
Banks will voluntarily agree to write down the value of their Greek securities by 21 percent as part of the bond exchange and debt buyback program, the Institute of International Finance said in a statement today. Europe’s 90 biggest banks hold about 98 billion euros of Greek debt, according to the European Banking Authority.
“Banks should be able to digest any haircuts on Greek debt, and it is already priced in to their shares,” said Andreas Plaesier, a Hamburg-based banking analyst at M.M. Warburg. “What was really key was supplying capital to Greek banks and stopping the possible chain reaction to lenders outside the country that hold Greek banking assets.”
Of course they can write it off. The money came out of thin air in the first place...and has now gone to money heaven. What the banks lose is the income stream from the money they created out of thin air. They'll make all of that back, plus more, during the subsequent bailouts.
This is another Roy Stephens offering...this one from Bloomberg yesterday. It's very much skimming...and the link is here.
Euro-zone leaders have acted, and a package of new aid for Greece has calmed financial markets. But Thursday's emergency summit raises new questions about the future of the euro -- and the structure of the euro zone itself.
Jürgen Matthes, at the Cologne Institute for Economic Research, says the danger still isn't over just because the ratings agencies have agreed to cooperate. "It can't be a guarantee that the financial markets reject," he said, adding that investors may yet react to Greece's short-term default with irrational speculation against other debt-ridden nations. "This could be playing with fire. It could still start a conflagration," he said.
They're kicking this problem can of theirs just a little further down the road. I thank Roy Stephens for sending me this story that was posted yesterday over at spiegel.de...and the link is here.
Thursday night’s eurozone bail-out was commonly described as a “last chance saloon”. This paper captured the mood succinctly by describing Thursday as the “Euro’s 11th hour”.
After yesterday morning’s brief euphoria, the cracks started to show and by tea time we had resumed the now familiar pattern of Italian and Spanish bond yields rising, while those in Germany and the UK were falling. Gold pushed through new highs.
Market reaction to the bail-out was predictably immediate, but Merkel & Co. are refusing to add any more detail to, say, the rules surrounding how the European financial stability facility will work. This is the key vehicle for stemming the contagion in Greece, Ireland and Portugal from spreading to Spain and Italy. Incredibly, that won’t happen until after the continent’s summer break. Angela Merkel won’t put the package to the German legislature until September.
Here's a really honest assessment of all this...and it's a posting from late last night in The Telegraph...and, once again, I must thank Roy Stephens for sharing it with us. It's not a long read, but it's a must read...and the link is here.
Here's another op-ed piece...this one from last Sunday's edition of The New York Times...and it's another commentary that's worth your while.
It is no wonder that young Greeks reacted so harshly when their deputy prime minister, Theodoros Pangalos, referring to all the European Union loans and subsidies that propelled the Greek credit binge after 1981, said, “We ate it together” — meaning the people and the politicians. That was true of the baby boomer generation of Greeks, now in their 50s and 60s, and the baby boomer politicians. But those just coming of age today will never get a bite. They will just get a bill. And they know it.
Reader Roy Stephens sent me this early last Sunday...and dovetails nicely with the previous three stories on the bailout of Greece et al, above...even though almost a week has past since it was written. I consider this story well worth your while...and the link is here.
If you remember from yesterday's column, I ran a Casey Daily Dispatch commentary on this very issue...and how it would affect mining in that country.
Hard on the heels of that, came this UPI story yesterday...also courtesy of Roy Stephens.
With a week to go before his inauguration Peruvian President-elect Ollanta Humala rushed through Cabinet appointments likely to reassure investors he wouldn't emulate Venezuelan peer Hugo Chavez when reforming the Latin American country's economy.
Peru is showing healthy growth but critics want more substantive changes to legislation and regulatory frameworks to embed the benefits of that growth. Peru's investor community and international partners also have hinted they want assurances Humala won't embark on state interventionism or extreme measures such as nationalization.
The story, filed from Lima, is well worth the read...and the link is here.
Here's an interesting gold-related story that popped up in Friday's edition of Casey's Daily Dispatch. BIG GOLD editor, Jeff Clark has written a piece about gold stocks...and their future prospects. Needless to say it's very positive...and well worth the read. You have to scroll down a bit to get to the story...and the link is here.
Silver has always been seen as less precious than gold, but it has certainly proved itself worthy of investors’ attention — and demand for it as a hedge against the world’s financial woes is likely to grow. Year to date, silver prices have gained about 26%. Gold’s 12% rise pales in comparison.
Silver is known as a “poor man’s gold,” so as gold prices rise and begin to price out many investors, “silver becomes a good and cheaper alternative,” said Mark Leibovit, chief market strategist at VRTrader.com.
This marketwatch.com story filed from San Francisco yesterday, was sent to me by reader Scott Pluschau. It's well worth your time...and the link is here.
Silver may more than double to $100 an ounce if the current bull market follows similar patterns seen between 1971 and 1980, according to technical analysis by Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
Needless to say, this article is a must read...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for sharing it with us...and the link is here. The photo, which you must click to enlarge, is worth the trip all by itself.
If these are the summer doldrums for gold, mining entrepreneur Pierre Lassonde tells King World News, bring on the fall and the Indian wedding season. Mining shares are hugely undervalued, Lassonde says, and the coming mania in gold will be much greater than that of the 1970s because only Americans were buying gold then. Today gold is much more a worldwide phenomenon, according to Lassonde.
The audio interview is a must listen...and I thank Chris Powell for doing all the heavy lifting with the title and introduction. The link is here.
Sponsor Advertisement |
Prophecy Coal Corp (TSX-V: PCY) is a Mongolian thermal coal producer with over 1.4 billion tonnes of surface minable thermal coal resources. Prophecy’s primary coal assets are the Ulaan Ovoo coal mine and the Chandgana coal property. Ulaan Ovoo has 209 million tonnes of resources and is operational (only the second mine in Mongolia to be commissioned by a Canadian company). The Chandgana coal property has 1.2 billion tonnes of resources and will feed the Chandgana 600 MW mine-mouth power plant, which Prophecy is developing. Prophecy also owns significant equity interests in Canadian nickel and PGM assets through a 45% interest in Prophecy Platinum Corp (TSX-V: NKL) and a 9.8% interest in Victory Nickel Inc (TSX-VI) and an 8% equity interest in a Canadian metallurgical coal exploration company, Compliance Energy Corporation (TSX-V-CEC). Overall, Prophecy’s Mongolian coal assets are strategically located to being a key supplier in meeting Asia’s growing energy needs. Please click here to learn more about Prophecy Coal. |
The most fascinating aspect of the debt limit "debate" is the contention by all the authorities that the US government can "preserve, protect and defend" its full faith and credit merely by increasing the amount they are giving themselves permission to spend. This is a wondrous argument. All that it necessary to preserve one's "solvency" is to borrow more money, preferably MUCH more money. One wonders why it hasn't worked in other countries, like Greece or Spain or Portugal or Ireland or Italy for example. - Bill Buckler, Gold This Week, July 16, 2011
Today's 'blast from the past' is a bit more than 400 years old.
Baroque composer Henry Purcell was born on September 10, 1659...and died 36 short years later on November 21, 1695. He has almost 700 works credited to his name.
Below are two short works from his 5-part semi-opera The Fairie Queen that he composed in 1692...just three years before he died. This is the London Classical Players performing under the baton of Roger Norrington. The Prelude and Hornpipe are from the beginning of Act I...and probably played on period instruments. The link is further down.
The version I own of these two works is by the double reed ensemble...The New York Kammermusiker...and The Prelude is played at a much more leisurely pace than this baroque orchestra plays it. This is one of my 'desert island' recordings...and The Prelude is my favourite piece on the entire CD.
This is dedicated to the memory of J. Douglas Steinke...the brother of John Steinke...one of my readers. His brother was an oboe player for The Orchestra of the 18th Century directed by Frans Brüggen and based in the Hague.
They made numerous recordings of Mozart, Rumeau and other composers of the era in the late 1970s, all on period instruments. Here's the orchestra playing the Menuetto from Mozart's Gran Partita with Brüggen on the podium. [Time - 9:19]
Steinke also played for the San Francisco Baroque Orchestra...and started the Portland Baroque Orchestra. He was a renowned builder of oboes, flutes and even bassoons. Sadly he passed away in 1985 at the age of thirty-six, the same age as Mozart...and Henry Purcell...the composer of the two works you are about to hear. Here's the link to the two Purcell pieces...which I'm sure J. Douglas Steinke played many times in his music career...and it will only take 3:04 out of your life. They're worth it.
Friday's volume in gold was a much-reduced 100,000 contracts net of all roll-overs...and the decent rally in the gold price only showed up as an increase of 2,522 contracts in the preliminary open interest number. I would think some short-covering was involved in yesterday's trading...but we won't know for sure until the final o.i. number is posted on Monday morning.
As expected, the final open interest number in gold for Thursday's trading day showed a big decline of 8,007 contracts...and is the big reason I'm looking forward to Friday's final o.i. number, because it will show a decline as well...it's just a matter of how much.
Silver's net volume yesterday was 'only' 48,000 contracts...but the preliminary open interest number was up a chunky 3,603 contracts...which I wasn't happy to see.
Silver's final open interest number on Thursday showed a smallish decline of 320 contracts...but I have the feeling that the number was actually much larger than that, but was hidden by spread trades. Next Friday's COT report should shine more light on that.
July open interest for silver was actually up one whole contract yesterday, to 315 for the July delivery month...and the short holders/issuers must deliver all these contracts to the long holders/stoppers during the next four business days. Going down to the wire in the big silver delivery months has now become the norm...rather than the rare exception.
I'm not sure what kind of reaction we're going to get in the gold and silver markets once the U.S. 'resolves' its budget deficit ceiling issue. One would naturally be inclined to think that they would jump up substantially in price [but by no more than 2%]...however JPMorgan et al may have other plans...so we'll just have to wait and see.
This coming week is the last week for traders to roll out of the August delivery month in gold...and it's a good bet that gold volume will be extremely heavy going into the final few days before first notice day, which is next Friday. The numbers will be posted late Thursday night...and I'll have them for you in my Friday column.
Here's one last chart for today...and it's also courtesy of Nick Laird over at sharelynx.com. It shows that although the number of ounces is still down [and it's all silver ounces]...the total dollar value of all known inventories of all four precious metals is now higher than it was when the 'drive by shooting' occurred on the Sunday evening of May 1st. I hope that you are buying your share, dear reader.
(Click on image to enlarge)
With virtually every gold analyst of note beating the drum for sharply higher share prices in both gold and silver, there's still time left to either re-adjust your portfolio...or get fully invested in the continuing major up-leg of this bull market in both silver and gold...and I respectfully suggest that you take a trial subscription to either Casey Research's International Speculator [junior gold and silver exploration companies], or BIG GOLD [large producers], with all our best [and current] recommendations...as well as the archives. A subscription to the International Speculator also includes a free subscription to BIG GOLD as well. And don't forget that our 90-day guarantee of satisfaction is in effect for both publications.
I'm done for today...and for the week. Enjoy what's left of your weekend...and I'll see you here on Tuesday.