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Message: Ed Steer this morning

End Price Suppression and Let Gold Rise to Re-liquefy the World: Murray Pollitt

"The dollar has fallen off a cliff [almost 3%] in the last six trading days...and the gold price has barely budged."

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

It was no great surprise to see gold price explode right of the chute when the precious metal markets began to trade early Monday morning in the Far East. And it was also no great surprise to see it get capped, as it was about to run away to the upside.

The pressure on the gold price lasted until shortly after 11:00 a.m. Hong Kong time, before it began to recover...and by 11:10 in London, it was knocking on the door of its opening high price in Far East trading, before it came under selling pressure once again.

This selling pressure lasted until half past lunchtime in New York before the seller backed off and the price gained back about five bucks going into the close of electronic trading at 5:15 p.m. Eastern time. Volume was pretty heavy for a Monday trading session at the height of summer in the northern hemisphere.

It was pretty much the same story in silver, except the selling pressure that began around 11:30 a.m. in London, didn't see a bottom until the price was below Friday's closing price in New York. However, the silver price rallied to finish higher on the day. From its high tick, to its low tick, silver was down more than a dollar. Volume was very heavy.

If you examine the gold and silver charts above, you'll note the three sell offs that occurred in both metals early in the New York trading session. The first occurred the moment that Comex trading began...and the second one came at the moment the equity markets opened...and the third just before lunch Eastern time. This is the second time in less than a week that both gold and silver have been hit at 9:30 a.m. in order to affect how the precious metal stocks react at the open. Here's the New York trading day on its own for gold...and the three sell-offs stand out like sore thumbs.

The dollar fell 25 basis points the moment the markets opened in New York on Sunday night, but there was someone there to catch a falling knife the instant it fell below the 74 cent mark...it bounce off that price level a couple of times during the Monday trading session, but managed to close the day around 74.10 cents...which was down about 15 basis points from Friday's close. Not much to see here.

Even though gold was up during the entire Monday trading day...and silver closed in positive territory...and well off its lows, it was obvious [at least to me] that the shares had some help to the downside yesterday, over and above the sell-offs in the metals themselves. The HUI finished down 0.56% on the day.

The silver shares fared no better...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index was down 0.93%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME's Daily Delivery report showed that only 11 silver contracts were posted for delivery tomorrow...and of those 11 contracts delivered, the Bank of Nova Scotia and JPMorgan received/stopped 10 of them. The link to the action is here.

There were no changes in GLD on Monday...but SLV reported receiving 1,364,325 troy ounces.

There was a sales report from the U.S Mint as well. They sold another 5,000 ounces of gold eagles...along with 193,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date, the U.S. Mint has sold 45,000 ounces of gold eagles...10,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 2,510,000 silver eagles.

Friday's action over at the Comex-approved depositories showed that 58,108 troy ounces of gold were received at their warehouses...and a smallish 8,087 troy ounces were shipped out the door. The link to the action is here.

Here are a couple of paragraphs that I borrowed from silver analyst Ted Butler's weekly commentary to his subscribers on Saturday.

"It’s always necessary to put things in perspective. Although the net short position of the big 4 in silver, despite the recent increase, is among the lowest in recent years, at 37,352 contracts, [but] it is still so excessively large and concentrated as to be manipulative, in and of itself. First, it is the equivalent of almost 187 million ounces of silver or 25% of annual mine production. It is also more than 26.5% of all the known silver bullion in the world (704 million oz) and almost 19% of the one billion ounces of silver bullion thought to exist in the world. By comparison, the big 4 net short position in COMEX gold of 16.5 million oz is only around 0.5% of the total 3 billion ounces of gold bullion in the world. In other words, the concentrated short position of the big 4 in COMEX silver is more than 30 times greater than that in gold compared to equivalent above ground metal in existence."

"Most importantly, the concentrated short position of the big 4 in silver represents almost all, or 95%, of the entire commercial net short position. In recent times, it has not been rare to witness the concentrated big 4 position in silver to exceed the entire total commercial net short position. In other words, was it not for the concentrated short position of the big 4, there would be no commercial net short position in silver at all. Please think about that. Four entities are responsible for the entire commercial net short position in silver. How much more concentrated can you get than that?"

Here's a nifty 1-month graph of the gold price vs. the U.S. dollar that Nick sent me in the wee hours of this morning. The gold price has been rising against regardless of what the U.S. dollar has been doing. But with the dollar down over 2 cents in the last week, gold is up less than $15. I wonder why that is?

(Click on image to enlarge)

Being Tuesday and all, I have a fair number of stories for you today.

¤ Critical Reads

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Return of Mass Layoffs a Grim Sign for U.S. Workers

Here's a finance.yahoo.com piece from late last week that I stole from yesterday's King Report.

Putting pressure on an already lousy job market, the mass layoff is making a comeback. In the past week, Cisco, Lockheed Martin and Borders announced a combined 23,000 in job cuts.

Those announcements follow 41,432 in planned cuts in June, up 11.6% from May and 5.3% vs. a year earlier, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Meanwhile, state and local governments have cut 142,000 jobs this year, The WSJ reports, and Wall Street is braced for another round of cutbacks. This week, Goldman Sachs announced plans to let go 1000 fixed-income traders.

Yep, it should be obvious to all that the economic recovery is well under way. There's also a 5:36 minute video that you can watch as well, if you wish...and the link to all this is here.

The great Australian real estate crash begins

Sitting smugly 'down under' and watching the U.S. real estate market head for the nether reaches of the earth over the last few years, reality has finally struck the Australian housing market. It is now at the beginning of an ugly retrenchment in housing prices that will shake the very foundations of both the real estate market, Australia's financial system...and its dollar.

You have to wonder why they didn't see it coming, as all the usual signs were there...and the U.S. U.S housing market was a blueprint for what was about to happen to them. As a 27-year veteran of residential real estate here in Edmonton, I can tell you from first-hand knowledge that people just never learn.

This 5:55 minute video from Channel 7 in Australia on Friday tells you all you need to know. I thank reader Matthew Nel for sharing this with us. It's a must watch...and the link is here.

Vietnam’s Inflation Accelerates to 22%, Highest Among Economies in Asia

Here's a Bloomberg story from last Friday that I ripped out of a GATA release yesterday.

Vietnamese inflation accelerated for an 11th month in July after the central bank cut a key interest rate even as the nation faces the fastest price gains in Asia.

Consumer prices rose 22.16 percent from a year earlier, compared with June’s 20.82 percent pace, data released by the General Statistics Office in Hanoi showed today. Prices climbed 1.17 percent from June.

I guess that's why the Vietnamese people have been buying gold hand over fist for the last few years. The link to this rather short story, is here.

Angry protesters return to Madrid's Puerta del Sol

Thousands of Spain's "indignant" protesters, including hundreds who crossed the country on foot, marched through Madrid Sunday to demonstrate against high unemployment and the economic crisis.

Six columns of more than 500 protesters who marched for weeks from cities across Spain formed the core of the demonstration. They were joined by protesters who arrived in Madrid by bus from over 30 cities and residents of the Spanish capital.

"Cutbacks for the rich first", and "People of Europe rise up", were among the placards on display.

This is an AFP story that was posted over at france24.com website yesterday...and I thank Roy Stephens for sending it to me. The link is here.

Moody's cuts Greek debt rating after second bailout

Greece's second bailout will have a "limited" impact on its massive debt burden, warned credit rating agency Moody's, as it put the country's debt further into "junk" territory.

"Greece will still face medium-term solvency challenges: its stock of debt will still be well in excess of 100pc of GDP for many years and it will still face very significant implementation risks to fiscal and economic reform," said Moody's in a statement.

The warning came as the agency said the €159bn (£140bn) rescue deal thrashed out by eurozone leaders on Thursday means the likelihood of Athens defaulting is "virtually 100pc."

No surprises here in this story that was posted late last night over at The Telegraph. It's another Roy Stephens offering...and the link is here.

Angela Merkel faces revolt in Germany over rescue deal

Here's another story that I borrowed from yesterday's King Report. This is from The Telegraph...and is an Ambrose Evans-Pritchard offering from yesterday morning.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is facing a storm of protest at home after yielding to EU calls for radical action to shore up Spain and Italy, raising doubts over her ability to implement the package.

Frank Schäffler, finance chair for the Free Democrats (FDP) in the ruling coalition, said the summit deal threatened "the castration of Germany's parliament" by shifting budget power to Europe.

Jens Weidmann, the Bundesbank's chief, said the accord exposes Germany and other creditor states to "sizeable risks" and greatly alters the EU's constitutional landscape.

"The euro area has taken a big step toward a collectivisation of risks. This weakens the foundations of a monetary union where each is responsible for its own budget.

I consider this a must read...and the link is here.

Markets could ultimately take the future of euro out of Europe's hands

The British government did not decide to take sterling out of the ERM...the European Exchange Rate Mechanism...on September 16, 1992. It just happened. [This is the day that George Soros broke the Bank of England and made a cool $1 billion dollars...which was big money back in those days. - Ed]

Indeed, not long before that fateful day, the Prime Minister, John Major, spoke of the pound potentially replacing the deutschmark as the strongest currency in the system.

What forced us out was the overwhelming flood of sterling sales on the exchanges. Once it became obvious that the pound would have to leave, the potential volume of sales grew exponentially. Late in the day, the Bank of England gave up the attempt to keep the pound above the lower limit of its fluctuation band.

That evening, various commentators appeared on radio and television to say that the Government still had not decided to leave the ERM. They had completely missed the point.

The Government might not have decided, but the market had. The pound was out, and that was that. Could something similar happen with the euro?

This is a very interesting history lesson from twenty years ago that's well worth your time. This is Roy Stephens last offering for today's column...and the link to the story, posted in yesterday's edition of The Telegraph, is here.

In a gold love-fest, shades of 1980

Here's a story out of Saturday's edition of The New York Times that showed up in a GATA release.

The worse things get, the better it looks for gold. That’s been the pattern this summer.

Worried about Greece, the future of the euro, the debt ceiling in the United States, or maybe even about the entire global economy? Buy gold bullion.

Plenty of investors, at least, have been thinking that way, driving the price of gold to nominal, if not inflation-adjusted, highs.

This is a longish read, but well worth it if you have the time...and the link is here.

How Americans buy gold and precious metals on eBay

Here's a short Reuters story from last Thursday that was sent to me by Washington state reader S.A.

Looking to stock up on gold bullion as gold prices soar to all-time highs? Plenty of Americans are turning to eBay’s Gold and Silver outpost. The company says sales of gold bullion have increased more than 60 percent from 2007 through 2010.

Some notable facts about precious metals sales on eBay:

* The top three states for precious metals sold per capita are Alaska, Wyoming and Nevada.

* Almost half of the silver and gold buyers in the first quarter of 2011 never purchased these items on eBay before.

* There are two silver buyers for every gold buyer because silver is so much cheaper.

* Privately minted bars are purchased more frequently than the American Eagle, the bullion coin issued by the U.S. Mint.

As I said, it's a very short story...and there's not much left to read...and the link is here.

CFTC lets platinum futures 'close-banger' move on to other precious metals

Here's a story out of yesterday's Financial Times that was sent to me by Bron Suchecki from The Perth Mint in Western Australia on Monday.

The FT headline reads "Ex-Moore Manager Given Platinum Futures Ban".

A former portfolio manager at Moore Capital, one of the world's most successful hedge funds, has been barred from trading US platinum and palladium futures after the government said he tried to manipulate the two small commodities markets.

Christopher Pia, now with hedge fund Pia Capital, has been ordered to pay $1 million to settle charges that he frequently tried to drive up closing prices for the precious metals on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

One has to wonder if the CFTC will show this much enthusiasm to the mega-short sellers in the silver futures market.

Chris Powell was only too delighted to post this subscriber-protected story in the clear the moment I sent it to him...and the link to the GATA release is here. It's a short piece, which is a must read.

Asian Buying to Fuel Massive Short Squeeze in Gold: James Turk

Here's a blog that Eric King sent me very late yesterday evening. I haven't had time to read it yet, but I would think it's worth the read...and the link is here.

South Africa's gold miners join coal and diamond miners on strike

More than 200,000 South African gold miners will join coal and diamond mine workers in a strike this week after failing to reach agreement with producers over pay, the country’s National Union of Mineworkers said.

The gold miners are demanding pay increases of 14 percent, the union said today in a statement. Johannesburg-based AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. offered workers 8 percent to 9 percent, the union said. Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. and Rand Uranium Pty Ltd. offered 7 percent to 8.5 percent, it said.

This Bloomberg story [which I stole from another GATA release] was filed from Johannesburg very early this morning...and the link is here.

'Great reset' will destroy cash, Marc Faber tells King World News

Newsletter writer Marc Faber told King World News that gold has actually declined against U.S. government debt and the U.S. monetary base since the 1980s...and thus can be considered undervalued. Faber expects what he calls "the great reset" of currencies to adjust them for un-payable debt, which will be no fun for those holding currencies.

I thank Chris Powell for the preamble...and the link to this must read KWN blog is here.

Ted Butler Commentary

It's not often that silver analyst Ted Butler has something posted in the public domain. He has almost become a recluse since he started his subscription service several years back...and I'm very fortunate that he has allowed me to be able to post the odd paragraph from his bi-weekly commentaries...like the ones you read further up in this column.

Here's an article that he's got posted over at Jim Cook's website, investmentrarities.com. I've already read it...and it's a must read. The link is here.

End price suppression and let gold rise to re-liquefy world: Murray Pollitt

I've had this story in my back pocket since late last week...but wasn't allowed to post it until it went up in the public domain yesterday...and here it is. I'll let Chris Powell do the honours...

"In his latest commentary mine financier and stockbroker Murray Pollitt of Pollitt & Co. in Toronto acknowledges decades of gold price suppression by Western central banks and even reproduces commentary from The Economist in 1961 that acknowledges such price suppression, which is wonderful since for years The Economist has refused to examine the issue despite GATA's appeals. Pollitt argues that if price suppression could be ended, a massive upward revaluation of gold could provide central banks and the world economy with the new liquidity they need. His commentary is titled "Sooner Rather than Later".

As you know, this is topic that's near and dear to my heart, dear reader...and it's wonderful to see Murray become a spear-carrier for the cause. Pollitt has been in the mining business for 50 years. This is an absolute must read...and the link is here.

¤ The Funnies

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Gold volume on Monday was a very robust 130,000 contracts net of all roll-overs out of the August delivery month...and everybody holding a gold August futures contract of any type, must sell, roll...or stand for delivery on Friday. They've got three days left to make up their minds.

Preliminary open interest for yesterday's trading day in gold showed a very large increase of 14,857 contracts. This is a lot...but the final number will be much reduced...however it will still show that this rally in the gold price is running into solid opposition from the bullion banks...and the smaller traders [Ted Butler's 'raptors'] in the Commercial category of the Commitment of Traders.

As expected, the final open interest number for gold on Friday showed a decline of 3,962 contracts...so there were no surprises there.

Silver's net volume yesterday was a chunky 58,000 contracts...which is a lot for a Monday in mid-summer. Monday's preliminary open interest number showed an increase of 2,290 contracts...and most of that increase should disappear when the final number is posted on the CME's website later this morning.

Silver's final open interest number for the Friday trading day showed a smallish increase of 1,235 contracts which, considering the price action, wasn't a lot. Yesterday's final open interest number should be even less than that.

There are still 288 silver contracts left to deliver in the July delivery month...minus the 11 contracts that were posted for delivery tomorrow. The shorts [the issuers] have to deliver all these silver contracts to the long holders [the stoppers] by Thursday afternoon at the close of trading...as first day notice for delivery into the August contracts comes a few short hours after that. I'll be more than interested in seeing who all these short sellers are that have been holding out to the bitter end.

Since today is Tuesday, it's also the cut-off day for this Friday's COT report. If you remember the events of one week ago, JPMorgan et al mounted their huge bear raid on the silver and gold markets the moment that Comex trading ended at 1:30 p.m. Eastern time. Ted and I think that the data from that raid wasn't in last Friday's report, because it occurred after the close of floor trading...and will be in this Friday's COT report. What we're most interested in now, is if we have another smack-down in the thinly-traded New York Access Market following the close of the Comex futures market this afternoon. We'll find that out soon enough.

The prices of gold and silver didn't do much in Far East trading...and both were sold off a hair shortly after London opened at 8:00 a.m. BST...which is 3:00 a.m. in New York.

Because the roll-over out of the August gold contract is now down to its last three days, volume is already pretty chunky. But once the roll-overs are removed from that volume...there's not much action worth mentioning. It's certainly lower than Monday's volume, as it took a lot of contracts for the bullion banks to kill the price spike in gold at the open of Far East trading on Monday morning.

Silver's high frequency trading volume is 'average'.

The dollar is down about 50 basis points as of 4:46 a.m. Eastern time but, as usual, there's no sign of it in the gold price action. This sort of fits in with the Gold vs. the Dollar graph that is posted further up in this column. The dollar has fallen off a cliff [almost 3%] in the last six trading days...and the gold price has barely budged. I would suspect that this is not the result of free-market trading action.

As GATA's secretary treasurer Chris Powell now famous quote goes..."There are no markets anymore, only interventions."

I haven't a clue what today's precious metal trading action will bring in New York today but, as usual, I'm ready for anything.

See you on Wednesday.

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