IMO, this is what is behind the daily suppression of ECU
posted on
Aug 10, 2011 10:53AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Like many others, I watch the trading of ECU 24/7, as well as the suspicious placement of pre-market offers. I had suspected shortly after the merger announcement on 6/24 that the naked shorts, which I estimate to be as much as 15-25 million shares, would begin to cover aggressively in order to completely unwind before the Sept. 2 merger would force them to cover.
Much to my surprise, not only has that not happened, but the naked short campaign has been elevated to an even higher level which accounts for the daily decline in the stock amidst higher gold and elevated stable silver prices. Furthermore, there has suspiciously been no usage of offer "icebergs" during this 6+ week decline--a trading strategy frequently utilized by large sellers determined to not reveal the entire size of their blocks. This tells me that most of the selling is not from the long position but rather fresh naked shorts whom only want to sell short strategically. (The legal "official" short position is only 3.9MM shs= 1.2% of the outstanding float.)
Yes, the "long-metal---short miner" collective hedge fund campaign has remained in full swing, but of course, ECU and AUMN/AUM have significantly outperformed the rest of the sector to the downside over the past 6+ weeks.
In past postings, I have discussed the suspicious trading of brokerage houses like Jitney, CIBC, and whomever disguises under "Anon." I have pointed out with supporting data that the average buying price has usually been higher than the selling price of each firm on the majority of the trading days. I have concluded that these are non profit-motivated entities looking to capture a penny here or there, but rather entities willing to take daily losses in order to maintain pressure on ECU, prevent a squeeze, and protect their large naked short positions. In other words, "lose a little now" but hopefully gain "big" when major shareholders bailed out down low.
Let's focus on the most visible suspect, Jitney(99). Since the merger announcement, "whomever" is trading through #99 has traded the stock on 32 days. On 25 of those 32 days (78%), the firm lost money! On 5 of those days, the firm broke even (16%). On only 2 of those 32 days, were trades through Jitney profitable (6%). NO PROFESSIONAL ENTITY COULD TRADE THAT POORLY, NOR REMAIN IN BUSINESS WITH THAT TRACK RECORD! And, ironically, Jitney has actually bought 2.57 million shares and sold 2.31 million shares during this time, for a net +258,300 long position.
Here is the supporting evidence from Stockwatch (I hope the cut/paste is successful):
Broker Positions for C:ECU Broker #99 from 20110624 to 20110810 |
Date | Bought | $Val | Ave | Sold | $Val | Ave | Net | Position | $Net | $Position |
20110624 | 182,600 | 178,780 | 0.979 | 261,200 | 252,965 | 0.968 | -78,600 | -78,600 | 74,185 | 74,185 |
20110627 | 240,500 | 229,875 | 0.956 | 157,500 | 149,020 | 0.946 | 83,000 | 4,400 | -80,855 | -6,670 |
20110628 | 28,000 | 25,870 | 0.924 | 23,000 | 21,200 | 0.922 | 5,000 | 9,400 | -4,670 | -11,340 |
20110629 | 117,000 | 109,690 | 0.938 | 1,600 | 1,477 | 0.923 | 115,400 | 124,800 | -108,213 | -119,553 |
20110630 | 35,000 | 32,485 | 0.928 | 45,800 | 42,282 | 0.923 | -10,800 | 114,000 | 9,797 | -109,756 |
20110704 | 5,000 | 4,400 | 0.88 | 18,500 | 16,300 | 0.881 | -13,500 | 100,500 | 11,900 | -97,856 |
20110705 | 117,000 | 107,530 | 0.919 | 70,000 | 64,275 | 0.918 | 47,000 | 147,500 | -43,255 | -141,111 |
20110706 | 72,500 | 66,700 | 0.92 | 70,000 | 64,400 | 0.92 | 2,500 | 150,000 | -2,300 | -143,411 |
20110707 | 103,500 | 95,105 | 0.919 | 29,500 | 27,050 | 0.917 | 74,000 | 224,000 | -68,055 | -211,466 |
20110708 | 15,500 | 13,950 | 0.90 | 20,000 | 17,935 | 0.897 | -4,500 | 219,500 | 3,985 | -207,481 |
20110711 | 10,500 | 9,335 | 0.889 | 15,000 | 13,245 | 0.883 | -4,500 | 215,000 | 3,910 | -203,571 |
20110712 | 149,500 | 132,120 | 0.884 | 57,000 | 50,000 | 0.877 | 92,500 | 307,500 | -82,120 | -285,691 |
20110713 | 257,500 | 234,875 | 0.912 | 50,500 | 45,380 | 0.899 | 207,000 | 514,500 | -189,495 | -475,186 |
20110714 | 167,800 | 151,481 | 0.903 | 86,500 | 77,650 | 0.898 | 81,300 | 595,800 | -73,831 | -549,017 |
20110715 | 96,000 | 83,940 | 0.874 | 28,500 | 24,810 | 0.871 | 67,500 | 663,300 | -59,130 | -608,147 |
20110718 | 77,500 | 69,730 | 0.90 | 8,500 | 7,600 | 0.894 | 69,000 | 732,300 | -62,130 | -670,277 |
20110719 | 63,000 | 55,410 | 0.88 | 25,500 | 22,315 | 0.875 | 37,500 | 769,800 | -33,095 | -703,372 |
20110720 | 52,500 | 44,750 | 0.852 | 13,500 | 11,475 | 0.85 | 39,000 | 808,800 | -33,275 | -736,647 |
20110721 | 41,500 | 34,975 | 0.843 | 23,500 | 19,720 | 0.839 | 18,000 | 826,800 | -15,255 | -751,902 |
20110722 | 49,500 | 41,515 | 0.839 | 7,000 | 5,880 | 0.84 | 42,500 | 869,300 | -35,635 | -787,537 |
20110725 | 67,500 | 56,855 | 0.842 | 11,000 | 9,190 | 0.835 | 56,500 | 925,800 | -47,665 | -835,202 |
20110726 | 7,000 | 5,695 | 0.814 | 53,000 | 43,445 | 0.82 | -46,000 | 879,800 | 37,750 | -797,452 |
20110727 | 18,000 | 14,115 | 0.784 | 108,500 | 84,430 | 0.778 | -90,500 | 789,300 | 70,315 | -727,137 |
20110728 | 33,000 | 24,420 | 0.74 | 161,500 | 119,625 | 0.741 | -128,500 | 660,800 | 95,205 | -631,932 |
20110729 | 67,000 | 48,515 | 0.724 | 111,000 | 78,515 | 0.707 | -44,000 | 616,800 | 30,000 | -601,932 |
20110802 | 128,000 | 93,095 | 0.727 | 104,500 | 76,285 | 0.73 | 23,500 | 640,300 | -16,810 | -618,742 |
20110803 | 26,000 | 18,930 | 0.728 | 60,500 | 43,850 | 0.725 | -34,500 | 605,800 | 24,920 | -593,822 |
20110804 | 80,500 | 55,375 | 0.688 | 82,500 | 56,495 | 0.685 | -2,000 | 603,800 | 1,120 | -592,702 |
20110805 | 51,000 | 32,445 | 0.636 | 349,500 | 220,265 | 0.63 | -298,500 | 305,300 | 187,820 | -404,882 |
20110808 | 108,000 | 66,525 | 0.616 | 160,000 | 97,535 | 0.61 | -52,000 | 253,300 | 31,010 | -373,872 |
20110809 | 87,500 | 52,540 | 0.60 | 91,500 | 54,155 | 0.592 | -4,000 | 249,300 | 1,615 | -372,257 |
20110810 | 18,500 | 10,735 | 0.58 | 9,500 | 5,515 | 0.581 | 9,000 | 258,300 | -5,220 | -377,477 |
TOTAL | 2,573,900 | 2,201,761 | 0.855 | 2,315,600 | 1,824,284 | 0.788 | 258,300 | -377,477 |
The only modus operandi I can possibly conclude from all of this is that the entity behind this trading (as well as CIBC/Anon, et al) is determined to protect his massive naked short position by "derailing" the merger with Golden Minerals. Knowing that it will be extremely expensive to cover such a large naked short position with a deadline soon approaching (late August), this entity is desperately trying to break the willpower of ECU shareholders and drive enough of them to a "NO" vote! Or, he is praying that large insitutional shareholders will get frustrated by the price action and "dump" large blocks of stock that the entity will be able to pickup at low prices.
If you believe in ECU and this merger, refrain from feeding this illicit entity and the complicit trading houses. Or better yet, recognize the "gift' that these idiots are now providing and "double down!" The "checkmate" is right around the corner.
Silverbull50