Entirely plausible and quite possible outcome Sinbob. Since the S&P weekend bombshell you can for all intents an purposes toss TA and cyclic analysis out the window, with minor exceptions noted in my last writeup. Clearly these price discovery mechanisms, long used by the cartel as tools to influence the POG, now play a minor role. In fact they've all but ceased to function. That's why Gold is thumbing it's nose at those bozos. They've lost their footing and can't get back up to disturb the natural order of things any more. It's fundamentals that now rules the roost.

At any rate back to your thesis. In the past few cycles Gold turned around when the current cycle ended, but the countertrend typically lasted a few weeks. If this pattern holds true, then NOW is the perfect time for a smackdown in Gold (no later than Monday/Tuesday.) Add 2 weeks to this date takes us to the end of the month and the target bottom price should return to the level you suggest - $1600-$1650 - before resuming a PM market on steroids. Not so sure about your proposed targets for October because like clockwork, October tends to be the yearly launching point for G&S off a bottom, with significant gains in store in the months ahead.

PS. VHF's latest piece only confirms both your suspisions of a looming ATTEMPTed smackdown. Only problem is they're not in the same position to b*tch-slap Silver! Watch for Silver to flatline for a while at $40 like it did at $18, followed by a sharp rise. This may take a few months to play out but October is shaping up to be the most opportune time for a breakout to $75-$80 as it plays catchup to Ole Yeller.