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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Venezuela Wants Its Gold Back: Is the Great Scramble for Physical Metal Starting?

"The silver and gold shorts in the Comex futures market are trapped...and in a very precarious position. They have to cover, deliver, or default...as there are no other ways out."

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

The gold price didn't do anything worthy of comment yesterday. The high came at the London a.m. gold fix at 10:30 a.m. British Summer Time, which is 5:30 a.m. Eastern time...and gold finished up a couple of bucks from its Tuesday close. Volume was decent.

The silver price didn't do much of anything until around 1:00 p.m. in London yesterday...which was 8:00 a.m. in New York. Then, in the space of two and a half hours, silver rallied sixty-five cents to its high of the day...and was in the process of blasting off for the moon and the stars...when a not-for-profit seller showed up, taking the silver price down over seventy-five cents in less than an hour.

Once the serious selling was over, silver recovered in price a bit during the balance of Comex trading...but basically traded sideways from 1:30 p.m. Eastern onwards in the thinly-traded New York Access Market. Volume was light, but much heavier than on Tuesday.

The dollar spent the early part of the Wednesday trading day keeping its head above 74.00. But that all ended at the London open at 3:00 a.m. Eastern time...and by 10:00 a.m. in New York, the dollar had fallen just under 70 basis points. It recovered a bit from there, but closed under 73.80.

None of this dollar activity is anywhere to be found in the gold price chart yesterday.

The gold stocks spiked to their highs of the day around 10:00 a.m. Eastern...then fell all the way back to unchanged before recovering a bit into the close. The HUI finished up 0.89% on the day.

The silver stocks were a pretty mixed bag yesterday...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed up a smallish 0.56% on Wednesday.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 37 gold, along with 20 silver contracts, were posted for delivery on Friday. JPMorgan, the Bank of Nova Scotia...and Jefferies in silver...were all part of the show. The link to that activity is here.

There were reports from both GLD and SLV yesterday. The GLD ETF showed an increase of 292,120 ounces...and over at SLV they took in 681,929 troy ounces.

The U.S. Mint had another sales report yesterday. The sold 3,500 ounces of gold eagles...2,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...along with another 150,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date the U.S. Mint has sold 83,000 ounces of gold eagles...17,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 2,134,500 silver eagles. As I keep reminding you, dear reader, I do hope you're getting your share, as it's my opinion that the clock is ticking.

There was huge activity over at the Comex-approved depositories on Tuesday, as they reported receiving 2,209,572 troy ounces of silver...and shipped 1,754,399 ounces of the stuff out the door. As Ted Butler keeps pointing out, this sort of frantic in/out activity suggests tightness in the physical market, as it appears that no one wants to sell the Comex-held silver they own...at least not at the current price level, so new supplies must be brought in to meet demand. The activity is definitely worth the look...and the link is here.

Reports from the Zürcher Kantonalbank's ETF's have been a little sparse over the past few months...but reader Carl Loeb was kind enough to provide what data they had sent him over the last three weeks. Since July 22nd their silver ETF has taken in 1.35 million ounces...and their gold ETF has added 174,402 ounces.

Quite a number of readers sent e-mails to CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton regarding the ongoing silver price management scheme led by JPMorgan. Everyone got just about the same canned response, but at least it was a reply. Silver analyst Ted Butler's commentary to paying subscribers was on this issue yesterday...and here are two paragraphs that I stole...

"The primary observation I would like to make today is one in which Commissioner Chilton apparently concurs. As he has stated here and previously, Chilton is disappointed with the pace of the ongoing silver investigation, as are we all. Now almost three years old, this is the longest investigation in agency history, to my knowledge. Disappointment, however, is not the right word; outrage is more appropriate. That there is an investigation confirms that something may be wrong in silver; otherwise the agency is just wasting taxpayer funds. There is no good reason for any investigation to take this long. That Commissioner Chilton writes to share his concerns about important matters related to silver also confirms that something may be wrong in silver."

"We don’t need any more confirmations that something may be wrong in silver. We need for it to be decided if something is wrong or not for a very simple and glaring reason. If there is anything wrong in silver (as I allege), then that something wrong is a crime in progress. That’s the critical distinction. That’s what matters most. I’m not merely alleging that something wrong took place in the past that is non-recurring in nature. On the contrary, the silver manipulation is ongoing. It will be ongoing and a crime in progress for as long as the concentrated short position exists and the commercial crooks continue to behave collusively."

I have a fair number of stories for you today...and I hope you have time to a least skim all of them.

¤ Critical Reads

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Jon Stewart Discusses Ron Paul Blackout

It seems that the video clip that I used yesterday got pulled for copyright infringement, so I will try it again.

As I said yesterday...if I hadn't seen this with my own eyes, I wouldn't have believed it. Of course I always knew that the 'fix was in' when it came to the main stream media in the U.S.A...but this is totally off the charts. I hate to use the word 'conspiracy of silence'...but, if the shoes fits....

Jon Stewart over at The Daily Show had a field day with it...and rightly so. I thank reader James Davis for sharing this very hilarious [and very sad] must watch video clip with us. Readers in the U.S.A. can view it by clicking here...and, if you live in Canada, you can watch it by clicking here. From what I've been told, if you live elsewhere in the world, you can't view it at all. Too bad.

Whistleblower Claims Massive Pattern Of Document Destruction At The SEC

Here's a story that showed up in yesterday's edition of businessinsider.com.

The SEC, which recently launched a whistle blower program that offers financial rewards for people who report securities violations, now has one of its own attorneys alleging that the agency destroyed thousands of documents involving banks and hedge funds, Rolling Stone's Matt Taibbi reported.

The allegations come from SEC attorney Darcy Flynn, who is a 13-year veteran with the agency. According to the report, Flynn claims the SEC has been destroying records relating to the investigations of financial criminals since 1993.

I thank reader 'David in California' for sending me this story yesterday...and the link is here.

U.S. Inquiry Eyes S.&P. Ratings of Mortgages

The Justice Department is investigating whether the nation’s largest credit ratings agency, Standard & Poor’s, improperly rated dozens of mortgage securities in the years leading up to the financial crisis, according to two people interviewed by the government and another briefed on such interviews.

The investigation began before Standard & Poor’s cut the United States’ AAA credit rating this month, but it is likely to add fuel to the political firestorm that has surrounded that action. Lawmakers and some administration officials have since questioned the agency’s secretive process, its credibility and the competence of its analysts, claiming to have found an error in its debt calculations.

Roy Stephens sent me this story from The New York Times yesterday...and the link is here.

The upcoming expansion of U.S. bank credit: Alasdair Macleod

I stole this story...and Chris Powell's preamble...from a GATA release yesterday.

Economist and former banker Alasdair Macleod, who spoke at GATA's Gold Rush 2011 conference in London, predicted yesterday that the Federal Reserve is concocting a scheme to finance U.S. government debt with unused commercial bank reserves, a scheme of bank credit expansion, which, he writes, has always been inflationary and would be bullish for precious metals. Macleod's commentary can be found at his Internet site, financeandeconomics.org...and the link is here.

Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy fail to calm markets despite eurozone concord

Traders reacted with exasperation as Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy repeated their "absolute will to defend the euro" and "shore up investor confidence" yet refused to back the shattered currency with eurobonds or a bigger bail-out fund. The failure to address the two measures left many traders ruing what they see as a lack of political leadership.

Edward Meir from MF Global in New York said: "It doesn't look like the two biggest items were seriously discussed -- the potential for a eurobond and the size of the stabilization/bailout fund. At €450bn [the European Financial Stability Facility] could easily be wiped out if one of the larger countries gets into trouble."

This story was posted in The Telegraph late on Tuesday night...and I thank Roy Stephens for sending it along. The link is here.

EMU crisis deepens as slump reaches Europe's AAA core

The German economy slowed drastically over the early summer and may be on the cusp of a double-dip recession, dashing hopes that Europe's industrial engine would eventually lift EMU's southern bloc out of slump.

The grim data came as Chancellor Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy emerged empty-handed from their Paris summit, offering nothing concrete to restore crumbling confidence in the eurozone project.

This is another story from late Tuesday night's edition of The Telegraph. It's an Ambrose Evans-Pritchard offering...and is, once again, courtesy of Roy Stephens. The link is here.

Fund manager David Tice interviewed by James Turk

My very good friend, fund manager David Tice, was interviewed by GoldMoney founder James Turk during GATA's Gold Rush 2011 conference in London, he discussed the failure of Keynesian economics, the difference between real metal and "paper gold," the likelihood of another credit disaster, the prospects for gold shares, and a lot more. The interview is 25 minutes long...and you can watch it at the GoldMoney Internet site. The link is here.

The Sprott Foundation announces sale of units of Sprott Physical Gold Trust

The Sprott Foundation, of which Eric Sprott is a director, announced today that as part of its long-term investment strategy, it is diversifying its holdings by selling 2,000,000 units of the Sprott Physical Gold Trust (the "Trust") and re-investing the proceeds from such sale into the silver sector.

I thank reader George Findlay for alerting me to this story...and I also thank Sprott's Sarah Zsiros for sending me the story. The link is here.

Chavez to nationalize Venezuelan gold industry

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said on Wednesday he plans to nationalize the gold sector, including extraction and processing, and use the production to boost the country's international reserves.

The socialist leader said he would carry out the nationalization through a decree to be issued in the coming days and called on the military to help control the sector.

"I have here the laws allowing the state to exploit gold and all related activities. That is to say, we're going to nationalize the gold and we're going to convert it, among other things, into international reserves because gold continues to increase in value," he said in a call to state television.

Once again I thank reader George Findlay for sending me this Reuters story, which showed up in a GATA release a few hours later. The link to this must read story, is here.

As Chavez Pulls Venezuela's Gold From JP Morgan, Is The Great Scramble For Physical Starting?

In addition to the nationalization of his gold industry, Chavez earlier also announced that he would recover virtually all gold that Venezuela hold abroad, starting with 99 tons of gold at the Bank of England. As the WSJ reported earlier, "The Bank of England recently received a request from the Venezuelan government about transferring the 99 tons of gold Venezuela holds in the bank back to Venezuela, said a person familiar with the matter.

I thank Washington state reader S.A. for this zerohedge.com piece. Needless to say, it's a must read...and the link is here.

Venezuela also wants gold back from Morgan, Barclays, Standard Chartered, and Scotia

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez ordered his government to repatriate $11 billion in gold held in banks abroad to safeguard the country from the economic crisis and said he will nationalize the local gold industry.

Venezuela has about 211 tons of its 365 tons of gold reserves held abroad at institutions including the Bank of England, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Barclays Plc, Standard Chartered Plc, and the Bank of Nova Scotia, according to a government document.

The link to this must read Bloomberg story, which showed up in a GATA release yesterday, is here.

Miner Gold Resource Corp. starts treating gold and silver as money

Mineweb.com's Lawrence Williams reports today that miner Gold Resource Corp. has begun minting its own gold and silver coins, is holding some of its cash balance in metal, and aims to pay dividends in metal as well. (There's another name to scratch off the Fed's Christmas party list.) Williams' story is headlined "Gold Miner Minting Its Own Gold and Silver Coins, Looking to Pay Dividends in Kind".

I thank reader 'John' for the story...and Chris Powell for the preamble...and the link is here.

Gold and Fiat Currency: Forty Years Later

Here is a really excellent essay on the U.S. default on the dollar's convertibility into gold. It's written by Nick Barisheff over at Bullion Management Group in Toronto.

Today, Monday, August 15, 2011, marks the 40th anniversary of the US default on the dollar’s convertibility into gold. It was the world’s de facto reserve currency and thus began an experiment with a reserve fiat currency that was doomed to failure before it began, because there has never been a successful fiat currency in all of history.. August 15, 1971 was just like any other day for most people, and President Nixon’s unprecedented decision to cut the US dollar’s gold international convertibility was largely ignored by the public. The majority of citizens didn’t understand the implications for their financial future. Contrast that to today, where a historic downgrade of US debt and a very public $2-trillion increase of the debt ceiling dominated headlines and the television news.

I know I've posted others, but this one is a real standout...and I urge you to read it when you can find the time. The story is posted over at their website bmgbullion.com...and the link is here.

Mass Psychology Moving Towards Gold & Silver: James Dines

Eric King sent me this short James Dines blog yesterday afternoon. It's posted over at his KWN website...and the link is here.

Gold has become 'substitute currency,' Jean-Marie Eveillard tells King World News

Jean-Marie Eveillard of the First Eagle Funds today told King World News yesterday that gold has become more than a hedge against inflation -- a "substitute currency." (Looks like he's not going to get invited to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's Christmas party.) An excerpt from the interview has been posted at the KWN website...and the link is here. I thank Chris Powell once again for his excellent introduction.

Precious metals now poised for next move up: John Embry

Writing for the August edition of Investor's Digest of Canada, Sprott Asset Management's chief investment strategist, John Embry, has this to say...

"Granted, no market ever moves in a straight line. But the violence and depth of the corrections in the face of strong positive fundamentals, are nothing but paper manipulations, pure and simple."

"The good news is that the correction has sent both the nervous Nellies and Johnny-come-latelies packing, while creating remarkably negative sentiment."

"Both results are preconditions for the next move up...something I believe will not only be imminent, but powerful to boot."

I know you may find this hard to believe, dear reader, but I actually dug this story up on my own over at the sprott.com website yesterday. It's a fairly long must read...and the link is here.

¤ The Funnies

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¤ The Wrap

Gold volume on Wednesday was down a bit from Tuesday. Net of what few roll-overs there, the volume was 156,000 contracts, give or take...and the preliminary open interest number showed an increase of 6,665 contracts.

Net volume in silver yesterday was around 30,000 contracts...about a 40% jump from Monday and Tuesday volume. The preliminary open interest number showed an increase of 2,717 contracts.

The low volume numbers in silver over the last four days was something that stood out like a sore thumb...and it was only when I mentioned it to Ted yesterday morning that he pointed out that it appeared that the high frequency traders are no longer in the silver market. That would certainly explain this new low level of trading activity...which is now back to the normal volume levels that I'm used to seeing. Let's see if it lasts.

The final open interest numbers for the Tuesday trading session in gold showed an increase of 3,376 contracts. The preliminary number was over 10,000 contracts, so I'm happy with the size of the decline. In silver, I was expecting a decline in Tuesday's final open interest number, mainly because the preliminary number was very tiny. That was not to be, as it came it at an increase of 148 contracts. Since Tuesday was the cut-off...all this data will be in tomorrow's Commitment of Traders Report.

Here's the 3-year silver chart. The 200-day moving average in silver is now safely over $34 the ounce...and the Relative Strength Indictor [RSI] is in neutral territory. After silver's huge drop in the Commercial net short position last week, Ted Butler says that silver is now firmly back in bullish territory. Both Ted and I are of the opinion that tomorrow's COT report will show further improvement in the market structure for silver...and unless JPMorgan et al smack the gold price, we are at, or very near, the bottom of the barrel in the silver price.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Here's the 3-year gold chart for comparison...and it still gives me the horrors. The RSI is still in hugely overbought territory...and the MACD line is at a record high. So please don't forget about the "in your ear" quote that I love to throw at you at times like this. If there's any way that 'da boyz' can engineer a sell-off, they will do it.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Of course, there's still the outside chance that they could get overrun and be forced to cover in a panic...just like some of the Commercial traders did early last week. But if that did happen, it would be on a much larger [and far more dramatic] scale from a price point of view.

The silver and gold shorts in the Comex futures market are trapped...and in a very precarious position. They have to cover, deliver, or default...as there are no other ways out. We'll just have to wait it out and see which way this is going to unfold.

As I put this column to bed for another night, I see that the gold price is flirting with the $1,800 price mark once again...and silver, which had been up in price, got smacked at the London open...and is now down below yesterday's New York close. What else is new? Gold and silver trading volumes are not overly heavy for this time of day...5:09 a.m. Eastern

September is a big delivery month for silver, and the roll-over activity out of September and into the December delivery month is really picking up steam...as everyone will have to roll, sell, or stand for delivery by next Friday at the absolute latest.

As usual, I await the Comex open at 8:20 a.m. in New York with great interest.

See you on Friday.

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