Ed Steer this morning
posted on
Sep 22, 2011 09:40AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
There's a Raging Battle in Gold Below $1,800 - James Turk
"Now it's just a matter of waiting it out. Once the bullion banks have covered as many shorts as they possibly can in both silver and gold, then the price bottom will be in."
The gold price didn't do much in early Far East trading during their Wednesday morning. But there was a spike up to gold's high of the day right at 12 o'clock noon Hong Kong time.
From that high, gold was down just under ten bucks shortly before lunch in London...and at that point, a somewhat more serious selling episode got under way. This bout of selling ended at precisely 10:30 a.m. in New York, before a buyer showed up...and that took the price up $30 by 1:00 p.m. Eastern.
The price drifted a bit lower from there, but the moment the Fed made their 'announcement'...gold spiked up to its New York high of the day, which Kitco recorded as $1,816.30 spot. Then 'da boyz' showed up...and in about thirty minutes they had the price down about thirty-eight bucks.
The subsequent rally met the same fate...and gold closed virtually on its low of the day...down $24.30 spot. Net volume wasn't overly heavy...around 170,000 contracts.
Here's the New York Spot Gold [Bid] chart on its own. The 24-hour chart [above] doesn't capture the smaller details of the New York trading day. In this chart, you can see the work of JPMorgan et al quite clearly.
The silver price rose in fits and starts...and its interim high of the day came at 12 o'clock noon in London...which is the time of the daily silver fix. From there it got sold off more than 50 cents...rallied a bit at the Comex open...then got sold off until precisely 10:30 a.m. Eastern.
From there it rallied, just like gold...but suffered the same fate as gold the moment that Mr. Bernanke spoke.
According to Kitco, from its New York high to its New York low, the bullion banks smacked the silver price by a bit more than $1.50 spot. The silver price closed about 20 cents off its low of the day...and 'only' down 12 cents from Tuesday's close. Net volume was around 41,000 contracts.
Of course, all the bad news for the dollar yesterday resulted in a huge increase in its 'value'...as it was up over 100 basis points in no time at all from its absolute Wednesday low in New York. The hit on the precious metals...and the rise in the dollar...were most likely co-ordinated events, as this would not be the normal free-market reaction to such Fed news. Here's the 2-day dollar chart for entertainment purposes only.
The gold shares hit a preliminary low at 10:30 a.m...but rallied along with the gold price after that...rolling over a hair once the gold price topped out. Then came 'the news'. From there, the HUI pretty much followed the price path of gold...and the Dow, which also headed south at the same moment...a natural reaction.
The HUI, which had been up more than 2% at one point, finished down 1.78% on the day...as nervous weak hands sold their positions. The Dow had been down slightly most of the day.
The silver stocks, along with their golden cousins, were having a good day yesterday as well, until 'the word' came out. They also turned on a dime, with most ending down on the day. Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index finished down 1.69%.
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One has to wonder what the price of the precious metals might have been [along with their associated shares] if the bullion banks hadn't been waiting to smash the rally after the Fed meeting was over.
The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 40 gold and 19 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Friday. The link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report is here...and it's worth a quick look.
There were no changes reported in either GLD or SLV...no U.S. Mint sales...and, for whatever reason, the CME Group did not update the Comex-approved depository data for Tuesday's trading day.
Silver analyst Ted Butler sent out his mid-week commentary to his paying subscribers yesterday...and here are a couple of free paragraphs...
"The biggest single obstacle to terminating an increasingly obvious ongoing manipulation in silver and the imposition of legitimate silver position limits has been the ability of those opposed to marginalize the issue and shroud it in a blanket of silence. Those who allege there is a silver manipulation [like me] are invariably cast, at best, as outsiders lacking in sophistication and industry knowledge and, at worst, as conspiracy wing nuts with some unspoken personal agenda. This then leads to the position that there is no point in even discussing the merits of the allegations. It’s all rather circular with the end result being that there never is an open debate. Silence reigns supreme. As I’ve written previously, I find this behavior on the part of opponents to position limits and ending the silver manipulation to be repulsive and un-American."
"The main antagonists against enacting position limits and ending the silver manipulation appear to be JPMorgan and other leading silver shorts on the COMEX and the CME Group, which owns and operates the exchange. Certainly, both JPMorgan and the CME lead the way in attempting to silence discussion on the issue. After all, even when repeatedly accused of manipulating silver and being sued privately for such, JPMorgan refuses to discuss the matter. Neither do I recall the CME ever commenting. Clearly, if there is ever found to be a manipulation in silver and JPMorgan and/or the CME are found to have been involved, their liabilities would appear to be enormous."
Nick Laird over at sharelynx.com, thinking well in advance of the Fed's decision, sent me this chart showing U.S. bonds across the various yield curves the day before the meeting ended. The Fed's objective is to get the 10 and 30-year bond yields down in the general area of where the 5-year bond yield is...if "Operation Twist-2" works as they hope.
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Here's the updated version with Wednesday's numbers plotted as well. You can see that the 10 and 30-year bond yields are already heading lower.
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Despite my best editing efforts, I still have quite a few stories again today.
The Federal Reserve announced an unconventional plan on Wednesday to reduce borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, trying once more to spur economic growth despite urgings from Republicans that it refrain from any expansion of its stimulus program.
The Fed said that it would invest $400 billion in long-term Treasury securities over the next nine months, using money raised by selling its holdings of short-term federal debt, in an attempt to drive down interest rates on mortgage loans, corporate bonds and other forms of credit.
Well, it's hardly an "unconventional plan"...as this is exactly what Jim Rickards said they were going to do...and he's been saying it for more than a month.
This Roy Stephens offering was posted yesterday afternoon over at The New York Times...and the link is here.
With today’s Fed announcement leaving interest rates unchanged and kicking into gear “Operation Twist,” Michael Pento of Pento Portfolio Strategies writes for the King World News blog, “The Fed has it all wrong by launching 'operation twist' and extending the duration of their balance sheet. And the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which fell over 280 points today, seems to agree. The 10-year note is trading at an all time low nominal yield and its real rate of interest is already extremely negative.”
Eric sent me this KWN blog shortly after Bernanke did his thing...and the link is here.
Bank of England officials said they may need to buy more bonds to bolster a faltering recovery after holding off adding stimulus this month in a decision that was “finely balanced.”
Most policy makers said it was “increasingly probable that further asset purchases to loosen monetary conditions would become warranted at some point,” the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee’s Sept. 8 decision said. “For some members, a continuation of the conditions seen over the past month would probably be sufficient to justify an expansion of the asset purchase program at a subsequent meeting.”
This Bloomberg story is courtesy of reader Scott Pluschau...and the link is here.
Attempts by central banks on both sides of the Atlantic to reignite faltering economic recoveries left stock markets underwhelmed on Wednesday.
The US Federal Reserve announced "Operation Twist", which will see the central bank buy $400bn of government bonds with longer maturities and sell the same amount of shorter maturities. Hours earlier, the Bank of England delivered its clearest signal yet that it is poised to restart quantitative easing.
But with both the Fed and the Bank of England having already deployed much of their ammunition since the crisis started, investors focused on the deteriorating outlook that’s forcing the fresh stimulus.
This story was posted in The Telegraph very late last night...and is courtesy of Roy Stephens. The link is here.
Moody's Corp cut the debt ratings of Bank of America Corp, Wells Fargo & Co and Citigroup Inc on Wednesday, saying the U.S. government is getting less comfortable with bailing out large troubled lenders.
The government is "more likely now than during the financial crisis to allow a large bank to fail should it become financially troubled," the ratings agency said.
Moody's decision hit Bank of America hardest as it cut both the long-term and short-term debt of the holding company and long-term deposits at its lead bank. The ratings agency cut only the short-term debt of Citigroup and limited the Wells' cut to its senior debt and to deposits at its lead bank.
I note that the Fed's bank, JPMorgan Chase, did not receive the same downgrade. What a surprise. This Reuters story is courtesy of West Virginia reader Elliot Simon...and the link is here.
Lloyd's of London, concerned European governments may be unable to support lenders in a worsening debt crisis, has pulled deposits in some peripheral economies as the European Central Bank provided dollars to one euro-area institution.
“There are a lot of banks who, because of the uncertainty around Europe, the market has stopped using to place deposits with,” Luke Savage, finance director of the world’s oldest insurance market, said today in a phone interview. “If you’re worried the government itself might be at risk, then you’re certainly worried the banks could be taken down with them.”
With actions like this one, it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. I thank Washington state reader S.A. for sending me this Bloomberg story. It's a longish article, but worth your time if you have it...and the link is here.
The European debt crisis has generated as much as €300 billion euros [$410 billion] in credit risk for European banks, the IMF said, calling for capital injections to reassure investors and support lending.
Political squabbling in Europe over ways to fight contagion and delays in implementing agreed measures are raising concern about the risk of government defaults, the IMF said. Banks, in turn face “funding challenges” because investors are concerned financial institutions will potentially show losses on government bonds holdings, and reliance by some on the European Central Bank for liquidity, it said.
This is Washington state reader S.A.'s second contribution to today's column...and the link to the Bloomberg story is here.
A big market-making state bank in China's onshore foreign exchange market has stopped foreign exchange forwards and swaps trading with several European banks due to the unfolding debt crisis in Europe, two sources told Reuters on Tuesday.
The European banks include French lenders Société Générale, Credit Agricole and BNP Paribas .
"Apart from spot trading, all swaps and forwards trading [with the European banks] have been stopped," one source who is familiar with the matter told Reuters.
I borrowed this Reuters piece from yesterday's King Report...and the link is here.
Here's a surprise! Yesterday I posted a story about this 9/11 lawsuit against Saudi Arabia...and here's a story today stating that it was "dropped without explanation". Maybe they discovered they were suing the wrong country...or more likely, they got a phone call or a visit. I suspect the latter.
I thank reader Jim Akers for sending along this story that was posted over at businessinsurance.com website yesterday...and the link is here.
Doug is back with his latest 'Conversations with Casey' interview with Louis James...the editor of the International Speculator. Here's a snippet from his first answer, just to give you a hint where this interview is headed...
"Let me be completely clear. The West in general, but the US in particular, has been living way above its means for a long time. The proof for that statement is all the debt we’re awash in – federal, state, municipal, and individual. Debt is worse than living out of capital. It amounts to living out of anticipated future revenues – which may not even be there. It amounts to eating the seed corn."
This interview is a must read of course...and the link is here.
Here's Mark Hulbert being as bullish on gold as I've ever seen him.
It seems that way to many, given its stunning rise in recent months. Their speculation has been fueled by no shortage of posts in the blogosphere that declare gold to be in a blow-off similar to the final stage of the Nasdaq Composite’s rise before the Internet bubble burst in March 2000.
But I’m not so sure.
Compare gold’s rise over the last decade to that of the Nasdaq Composite over the 10 years through March 10, 2000 — the day of its all-time closing high at 5,048.60. At least in comparison to that bubble, gold still has a long way to go.
This must read marketwatch.com story from yesterday is reader Scott Pluschau's second contribution to today's column...and the link is here.
Mining firms are hiring, but the city government, and even mine employees, are wary. Only a decade ago, tanking gold prices saddled the region with abandoned homes and tarnished dreams.
This far-flung capital of Nevada's Gold Belt is booming — very, very reluctantly.
With the price of gold in the stratosphere, the mine-chiseled corner of northeastern Nevada is scrambling to fill thousands of jobs, while newcomers to the barren region beg for somewhere to sleep. The motels: sold out. The apartments: good luck. The RV parks: get in line.
This very interesting story from yesterday's edition of the Los Angeles Times was one I 'borrowed' from a GATA release yesterday...and the link is here.
Gold will soon be accepted in payments against the delivery of securities on the Swiss stock exchange, in what will be a world first.
SIX Securities Services announced the plans after the successful settlement of transactions involving gold with a pilot set of customers.
“Gold is the new currency,” said the company.
This very short absolute must read story was posted over at the swissinfo.ch website on Monday...and is Washington state reader S.A.'s third and final offering of the day. The link is here.
With gold a stone’s throw away from $2,000 and already up 27% on the year, the objective investor might begin wondering how much higher both it and silver can climb. After all, gold is nearing its inflation-adjusted 1980 high – and that peak was a spike that lasted only one day.
So, how much return can we realistically expect in each metal at this point? And is one a better buy than the other? There are dozens of ways to calculate price projections, but I’m going to use data based strictly on past price behavior from the 1970s bull market.
It's somewhat embarrassing when a reader has to point out a gold story that I hadn't seen before that's posted on the website of the company that I work for...and that's what happened in this particular case.
I thank reader Rob Bentley for sending me this. As the headline states, it's written by BIG GOLD editor Jeff Clark here at Casey Research. I've read it...and it's definitely one that falls into the must read category as well. The link is here.
Eric King sent me this James Turk blog very late last night. It's definitely worth the read, as it's the headline story for today's column...and the link is here.
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I ask in the cause of giving individuals, nations, and all humanity a chance at democracy, liberty, and limited government...with a neutral, fair, and impartial international currency that serves not just one government or another, or one class or another, but rather the whole brotherhood of man. - Chris Powell, GATA, September 21, 2011
I guess the bullion bank smack-down of the precious metals [or the US dollar rally] after the Fed meeting shouldn't have come as a surprise...but the interventions are now so blatant, that they no longer care who is watching, as no one is prepared to do anything about it...especially the 'regulators'.
The preliminary open interest report for Wednesday's trading day was nothing special in both metals...and open interest was up in both. But the final report for Tuesday showed smallish o.i. declines in both metals. Tuesday's data will be in tomorrow's Commitment of Traders Report...but not Wednesday's numbers.
Here's the 6-month gold chart. The price continues its bullion bank-driven decline...and at the same time, the 50-day moving average continues its relentless climb upwards. There's about $40 between yesterday's close and that moving average. It appears that JPMorgan et al are determined to take it out, despite the hugely negative news for interest rates and the US dollar. Let's see if they make it...and if they do, by how much...and for how long.
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Here's the 6-month silver chart. We've closed below the 50-day moving average for quite a few days in a row, so any longs that were going to throw in the towel and liquidate their positions, have pretty much done so by now.
Of course there's still the 200-day moving average to contend with...which will move above the $36/ounce level today...but, as I've said several times before, I consider that to be a bridge too far. I would doubt that there are many long positions left to be liquidated down there, as the 50-day moving average is the key one. We'll see what happens.
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Now it's just a matter of waiting it out. Once the bullion banks have covered as many shorts as they possibly can in both silver and gold, then the price bottom will be in. But it's a big unknown as to when that might be. And, as I said yesterday, we're a lot closer to the bottom than we are to the top.
Both metals came under selling pressure early in Far East trading earlier today...and at one point, the gold price was down over $15 spot. Currently silver is down about two bits as we approach the London open. Volume is already very heavy in gold...and getting up there in silver as well.
Very little of this overnight volume in Far East trading is the local traders doing their thing. Most of it involves the U.S. bullion banks...or their proxies doing their dirty work for them in the Globex trading system.
[Note: It's been a couple of hours since I wrote the above two paragraphs...and there has certainly been some interesting action in London since then...as the bullion banks really went to work on both gold and silver starting at 9:30 a.m. local time, which is 4:30 a.m. Eastern. Here's what the Kitco silver chart looked like shortly before 5:00 a.m. Eastern time. They only got gold down about twelve or thirteen bucks...but they really smacked silver pretty good. Volume in both metals is now about double what it was just before the London open...about 52,000 contracts in gold...and 12,500 contracts in silver. The dollar barely moved.]
I would suspect that it will be another interesting trading day in the precious metals once New York opens this morning.
I hope your Thursday goes well...and I'll see you here tomorrow.