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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Lewis Lehrman to Present Plan For a Return to the Gold Standard

"Are the bullion banks, as short-sellers of last resort, going to actively short the next price rally in all the metals...gold, silver, platinum, palladium and copper?"

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

Gold sold off a hair at the open...and then recovered its losses by 9:00 a.m. Hong Kong time on Monday morning...which was 9:00 p.m. Sunday night in New York. Then the selling started...and by the time the bloodshed ended just minutes before the London open, the bullion banks had peeled another $120 or so off the spot gold price.

The subsequent [short covering?] rally took gold back up to around the $1625 mark by 10:00 a.m. in London. From there it traded sideways until the London p.m. gold fix at 3:00 o'clock local time...10:00 a.m. in New York. Once the 'fix was in'...gold got sold down to around $1,600 spot..and stayed there until about 2:30 p.m. Eastern time in the New York Access Market.

Gold then rallied to close at $1,628 spot...and down 'only' $29.20 on the day. Net volume was monstrous again...around 350,000 contracts...a hair higher than Friday's volume.

Silver's price path was just about the same as gold's. The low price print [around $26 spot] came minutes after 2:00 p.m. Hong Kong time on Monday afternoon...about an hour before London opened at 8:00 a.m. British Summer Time.

From there, the price rallied back [bullion bank short covering?] about four bucks to $30 spot by 9:30 a.m. in London...before getting sold down two dollars by 9:30 a.m. Eastern time...which was the New York low . From there it rallied about $2.50 by mid-lunchtime.

By the time that trading ended in the New York electronic market, silver was only down 18 cents from Friday's close...but what a wild ride in the interim! Volume was monstrous once again...around 102,000 contracts net.

Despite the fact that gold was down more than $60 when the equity markets opened at 9:30 a.m. Eastern time, the shares actually spent some time in positive territory in early morning trading. The HUI kept chugging higher from it's post-p.m. London gold fix low at 10:15 a.m...and shortly before 2:00 p.m. really caught a bid...and climbed to close up 2.04%. This was a magnificent performance considering the fact that the gold price closed down about $30 bucks on the day.

With some exceptions, the silver stocks did very well for themselves...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index was up 1.96%

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 23 gold, along with 28 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Wednesday. There's not a lot to see, but if you wish to check out the action, the link is here.

Well, I was mentally braced for the worst when I checked GLD and SLV yesterday. Yes, GLD was down 175,189 ounces...but the big surprise was SLV, where 2,774,799 troy ounces were added! You could have knocked me over with a feather. Maybe there will be a big withdrawal today.

It was no surprise to me to see a big sales report from the U.S. Mint yesterday. They sold 15,500 ounces of gold eagles...2,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and a very chunky 1,025,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date sales are as follows...65,000 ounces of gold eagles...10,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and a whopping 3,325,500 silver eagles. Based on retail bullion sales that I know about in various parts of North America, September will be another strong month for the mint...but it certainly didn't start out that way.

Friday was a busy day over at the Comex-approved depositories. They reported receiving 1,488,872 troy ounces of silver, but only shipped 26,907 ounces out the door. The link to that action is here.

Here's an interesting comment that I got from my friend Bron Suchecki over at The Perth Mint yesterday. I'd sent him an e-mail on the weekend asking him how sales were both on Friday...and their Monday, which started Sunday night here in North America. This was the reply that I got...

"The Perth Mint has been very busy this Monday morning with a lot of buying [but also some selling], however buying is outweighing selling by a fair margin [pun intended]...and the decrease in the AUD/USD has taken some sting out of the drop for Aussie investors.

"I see this sell-off driven by leveraged “weak hand” money. In contrast, average investors [the real smart money] are looking at this as an opportunity to buy in or top up at cheaper prices. These buyers are “strong hands” and have been the ones who have been driving the trend all these years.

My bullion dealer here in Edmonton had another record day in bullion sales on Monday...even larger than the record day he had on Friday. It was wall-to-wall buyers all day...and the phone was ringing off the hook. Nobody sold an ounce of anything.

Here's anther piece of technical analysis on the gold price by reader Scott Pluschau. The 'Subject' line of the e-mail read "Hammer Reversal on Gold Futures".

Hi Ed...

The Gold Futures today formed a single candle called a "Hammer" on the Daily chart. This is a well known and popular reversal pattern in Japanese Candlestick analysis. The hammer shows strong demand at lower prices in the auction. The lower wick of the candle has to be multiple times the size of the body of the candle which can be seen in the chart where I drew a blue oval. It would be even more bullish if the closing price was higher than the open.

The hammer in theory represents a turning point, since the Bears tried to push lower but got rejected, weakening them...and now there's potential for the Bulls to start a short squeeze. This single candlestick pattern needs confirmation.

I attached the chart in case you can't visualize it in the text. Scott

Here's the 1-year Gold/Silver Ratio

(Click on image to enlarge)

I have a lot of stories today...and I hope I can get them all posted before I run out of time.

¤ Critical Reads

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S&P Could Face Legal Action Over CDO Ratings

The Securities and Exchange Commission is considering taking civil action against Standard & Poor's for its rating of a 2007 mortgage debt offering. Such action could be just the first shot in a legal assault against the major credit rating agencies.

The three major agencies – S&P, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings – gave high ratings to mortgage investments that turned out to be worthless and contributed to the 2008 financial crisis.

If the SEC charges S&P with violating securities laws, it would mark the first time it's brought an enforcement action against a top rating agency.

I've always considered the U.S. rating agencies as instruments of the American Empire to be used as financial weapons against other nations...and this has turned out to be the case beyond my wildest nightmares. I thank Florida reader Donna Badach for sharing this Huffington Post story with us...and the link is here.

BBC Speechless As Trader Tells Truth: "The Collapse Is Coming...And Goldman Rules The World"

In an interview on BBC News Monday morning that left the hosts gob-smacked, Alessio Rastani outlined in a mere three-and-a-half-minutes what we all know and most ignore. While the whole interview is worth watching, the money shot for us was "This economic crisis is like a cancer, if you just wait and wait hoping it is going to go away, just like a cancer it is going to grow and it will be too late!".

While we do not know who this trader is, one thing we can be 100% certain of is that he will never appear on CNBC.

I thank Edmonton reader B.E.O. [amongst others] for sending me this piece...and the link to the zerohedge.com story is here.

Walker's World: The IMF fails again

There was disappointment, but no real surprise, that the annual meeting in Washington of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank failed to produce a comprehensive solution to the euro crisis.

Although the regional commanders of the global economy were gathered, from finance ministers to central bankers and they all knew the stakes and the deep peril that now threatens, there was an air of fatalism to the meetings. It will get worse before it gets better, they seemed to conclude, because the politicians cannot bring themselves to deliver the financial measures that will be required.

This UPI story is well worth the read...and I thank Roy Stephens for sending it along. The link is here.

£1.75 trillion deal to save the euro

British taxpayers risk being caught up in a £1.75 trillion deal aimed at saving the euro by allowing Greece to default on its massive debts.

The three-pronged deal would set up a massive fund to create a "firewall" around the most indebted eurozone countries, allow for an "orderly" Greek default on at least some of its liabilities, and bail out European banks most at risk from debt.

German and French officials came up with the strategy which aims to end the eurozone's sovereign debt crisis before it spirals completely out of control, plunging the world back into recession.

The likely deal came ahead of a major new setback for the British economy - with BAE Systems, Britain's biggest manufacturer, poised to cut 3,000 jobs.

This story was in The Telegraph on Saturday...and is Roy Stephens second offering of the day. As he said in the e-mail to me..."It's interesting how the numbers no longer have any meaning...it's all make believe." That it is...and the link is here.

France denies plan to inject €15bn into its major banks

France has denied reports that it had drafted a plan to inject up to €15 billion into its major banks amid fears over their heavy exposure to Greek debt.

The Journal du Dimanche reported on Sunday that the state offered a €10-15 billion bank recapitalisation at a meeting earlier this month with senior officials from five institutions: BNP Paribas, Société Générale, Crédit Agricole, Banque Populaire-Caisse d’Épargne and Crédit Mutuel.

A sharp drop in the share prices of French banks since the beginning of the summer has led to speculation that the state may have to intervene and set up a recapitalisation fund, as it did during the 2008 global banking crisis.

This story was posted in The Irish Times on Monday...and it's Roy's third offering of the day. The link is here.

Central banks are intervening in currency markets all over the place

The South Korean central bank surprised the markets on Friday with a $4 billion lightning intervention in support of the won, carried out in the last two minutes of trading,

The day before, Brazil spent $2.75 billion selling dollars in the currency swaps market to stop the rapid decline of the real.

Does this mean central banks in emerging markets are finally trying to reverse the sharp plunge in their currencies over the past month?

Probably not, currency strategists believe. Officials are primarily aiming to curb what they see as excessively wild swings in their currencies. They want stability, not appreciation.

But, as Chris Powell put it...they're probably managing gold and silver prices as well...but the folks over at the Financial Times who posted this story, would never ask about that.

This FT story was printed in the clear in this GATA release yesterday...and the link is here.

"Gold is Quite Oversold" - Marc Faber

Here's a 6:56 minute CNBC Europe interview with Dr. Faber and two other guests. I haven't watched the whole thing, but I would guess it's worth your time. The video is posted over at the futuremoneytrends.com website...and I thank reader Brad Robertson for sharing it with us. The link is here.

Embry explains central bank intervention; Sean Boyd thinks gold's bottom is in

Here are two King World News blogs that were posted yesterday...and I stole the preambles to both from a GATA release.

The smashing of gold and silver by central banks is only proportionate to the problems faced by central banks as the world financial system totters, Sprott Asset Management Chief Investment Strategist John Embry told King World News yesterday. An excerpt from the interview has been posted at the KWN website...and the link is here.

Meanwhile, Agnico-Eagle Mines CEO Sean Boyd remarks calmly that the problems of the world financial system have not been diminished and governments will address them with more money creation, and so he suspects that the bottom for the monetary metals has been reached. A summary of the interview with Boyd has been posted at the KWN website...and the link to that blog is here.

Retiring Japanese bureaucrats buy gold, while the general population sells

At a shop in Tokyo's upscale Ginza district, a steady stream of pensioners are selling their gold.

Osamu Ikeda, managing director of Tanaka Holdings Co., which owns the Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo KK bullion house, said customers are cashing in on high prices.

Toshima said there is one group that does not appear to share the country's enthusiasm for cashing in on gold. A growing number of retired bureaucrats from financial ministries and agencies have asked his advice on buying gold, he said.

"I am afraid they are keenly aware that Japan is in peril," he said. "They may be investing in gold because they think a nosedive of government bond prices and sharp fall in the yen is inevitable."

This story is definitely worth your time...and I thank Swiss reader B.G. for sending me this story that's posted over at the Japanese website asahi.com. The link is here.

Is China Business News following the gold issue through GATA?

Here's a very interesting GATA release that came out on Sunday. Chris Powell has already wordsmithed this...so I won't reinvent the wheel with my introduction. This is a must read...and the link is here.

Where is Mexico's gold, and is it really gold at all?

This is another GATA release that's well worth the read. Here's a sentence from Chris Powell's extensive introduction.

"Mexican journalist Guillermo Barba reports that the Bank of Mexico refuses to disclose where it is keeping the 93 tonnes of gold it claimed to have purchased this year, apparently doesn't even know the form of the gold it claims to have purchased."

It gets more interesting from there...and the link to the GATA release is here.

China launches its first gold vending machine

China, already the world’s -second-largest bullion consumer, has installed the country’s first gold vending machine in a busy shopping district in Beijing, state media said yesterday.

Shoppers on the popular Wangfujing Street can insert cash or use a bank card to withdraw gold bars or coins of various weights based on market prices, the People’s Daily said on its Web site.

Each withdrawal is capped at 2.5kg, or 1 million yuan (US$156,500), worth of gold, the report said.

This AFP story was filed from Beijing on Monday...and is posted over at the taipeitimes.com website. I thank reader 'David in California' for sending it along...and the link is here.

Gold Premium Over Platinum Seen Rising to Record

Gold’s premium to platinum, already the biggest in almost two decades, may surge to the highest on record in the next year because of investors’ mounting concern about the global economy.

Gold cost 3.1 percent more than platinum in London on Thursday, compared with an average discount of 39 percent over the past decade, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The metal may reach a premium of 26 percent in the third quarter of 2012, according to David Wilson of Société Générale S.A. in London, the most accurate platinum, palladium and silver forecaster tracked by Bloomberg over two years. That would be the highest in data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 1987.

This Bloomberg story, filed from London on Friday, is Roy Stephens final offering of the day...and the link is here.

Wartime wreck to give up £148m in lost silver bullion

The largest ever consignment of precious metal found in the sea - 200 tons of silver [7 million troy ounces] worth £148m - has been discovered along with the wreck of a British cargo ship sunk during the Second World War by a German U-boat.

Odyssey Marine, an American underwater archaeology and salvage firm, announced the discovery yesterday along with plans to recover the bullion as part of a contract with the British Government which will see the company retain 80 per cent of the value of the cargo.

It's 4,700 metres [3 miles] below the surface of the stormy North Atlantic...and it will be of great interest to see how much they can recover and how long it takes. But I doubt that this silver will be sold on the open market any time soon, if ever.

I thank U.K. reader Tariq Khan [and many others] for sharing this must read story with us...and the link is here.

Why We're Aggressively Buying Gold, Silver & Miners - Rick Rule

“What we are seeing in the markets right now is exactly the type of psychotic break, the type of non-fundamentally related volatility, that has over the last twenty or thirty years given us the entry points that have, in fact, built our track record."

This King World News blog is a must read...as Rick is buying while "blood is running in the streets". The link is here.

Avoid counterparty risk as financial system topples, Turk tells King World News

GoldMoney founder, GATA consultant, and Free Gold Money Report editor James Turk told King World News this weekend that the Western financial system is wobbling like a top about to fall over, that counterparty risk has to be avoided, and that this can be done only with gold. The interview is 11 minutes long and is posted over at the KWN website...and the link is here. I thank Chris Powell for wordsmithing the introduction.

Lehrman to present plan for return to gold standard: New York Sun

A New York Sun editorial yesterday reports that industrialist and philanthropist Lewis E. Lehrman, a member of the U.S. Gold Commission 30 years ago, will present, on October 5th, a detailed plan for the restoration of a gold standard in the United States. Lehrman's plan will be announced at a conference sponsored by the Heritage Foundation in Washington.

The Sun's editorial is headlined "Plan to Return America to the Gold Standard Set to Be Offered at Washington". It, too, is a must read...and the link is here.

¤ The Funnies

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¤ The Wrap

One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. The bamboozle has captured us. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back - Carl Sagan

Hopefully we saw the bottom in afternoon trading in the Far East yesterday. Of course virtually all of the volume was from the New York bullion banks, or their proxies, in the Globex trading system...as volume in the local markets is virtually non-existent.

The final open interest numbers for last Friday's trading day were positive...but how positive won't be known until this Friday's Commitment of Traders Report. The preliminary open interest numbers for Monday's trading day aren't so happy looking, but I'm not prepared to read a thing into them...or the final open interest numbers when they're posted on the CME's website later this morning.

I'm sort of hoping that today will be a rather quiet day in the precious metals, as I can hardly wait to see just how big the leveraged long clean out was this in this Friday's COT report. Today's final open interest numbers will also be in that report, and the less activity we have, the better. Any excitement can wait until after the close of Comex trading at 1:30 p.m. Eastern time today...as that's the cut-off. Then the price can do anything it wants after that.

I was fascinated by the fact that the bullion banks set the low prices for this move before the market opened in London, as I couldn't figure out why they didn't press their advantage further. But maybe there just weren't enough leveraged longs left to made it worth their while.

Here's silver's 6-month chart. Silver has never been this oversold...ever! I would guess that the bottom is certainly in for silver...and look at that positive hammer! Let's see if it holds.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Here's the 6-month gold chart as well...

(Click on image to enlarge)

The low tick in the gold price yesterday came very close to its 50-day moving average...and that may have been enough to clean out the vast majority of the leveraged longs...as the 50-day m.a. is of far more importance than the 200-day moving average.

Now that I've looked at both these charts, I have to agree with Agnico Eagle CEO, Sean Boyd, that we've probably seen the bottom in both these metals...and what a bottom it was! I hope you remember my comment recently about how positive I was about things going forward...but that I was always on the lookout for "in your ear". As we just found out, there was a good reason why I always qualified my bullish stance.

And, as I mentioned on the weekend, silver analyst Ted Butler had told me many times that before the bullion banks let prices fly, we would have a sell-off that would scare the living hell out of us. Well, he was right about that.

As I mentioned further up in this column, the physical off-take in both metals has been absolutely staggering, as the buy-the-dip purchasers have been invading every precious metal store on Planet Earth since last Friday...and the U.S. Mint sales on Friday and Monday were huge...and are going to get even larger the longer that prices for both gold and silver stay at these price levels. I hope that you're getting your share.

But the big question now is the same question that Ted Butler asks every time there's a sell-off of any magnitude...are the bullion banks, as short-sellers of last resort, going to actively short the next price rally in all the metals...gold, silver, platinum, palladium and copper? The answer to that question will determine both high we go from here...and how fast we get there. I would guess that we won't have too long to wait to find out the answer to that question.

Now that London has been open for about two and a half hours...both silver and gold are doing rather well for themselves. It's entirely possible that this is short covering by the bullion banks...but that won't be known for sure until Friday. At the moment, gold is up about $43...and silver is up a whopping $2.03 spot. As of 5:27 a.m. Eastern time, volume in both metals is already very heavy.

It could be an interesting day when New York opens at 8:20 a.m...and I'll be ready for anything. So should you.

I'm done for the day...and I'll see you here tomorrow.

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