"that appears to be the only way you can truly determine if a physical shortage is imminent." (explorationguy)

I believe that U are partly right. No one knows the exact numbers...but gov't sales are not infinite and have been dwindling for years...hedging doesn't affect the physical imbalance and is probably offset by de-hedging as well...recycle is a very tough number to pin down, but we know that most recycle came from photography and is also on the wane, (as is photo demand)...This is a bit open-ended, but the recycle numbers don't appear as large as the increases in investment demand appear to be.

It is enough for me to believe that the investment demand, and the corresponding imbalance seems to be building at such a rate that eventual physical default is a mathematical certainty...but I shouldn't suggest that anyone else believe it..!

The INCREASE in physical investment demand is exponential at this point. Exponential increases reach physical limits very quickly. I'm not implying "imminent"...but I DO believe that it will happen before 2014. It is hard for me to believe that the mining sector can find another 600-700 million ounces of available silver for investors in the next 2 years (without drastically raising prices to induce investor selling)...even without exponential investment growth...then again, maybe the numbers are all cooked, or perhaps there is a billion Ag ounces sitting in vaults on the bottom of the ocean..!

I should not speculate out loud...since common sense has become an ancient relic.

lotus petals,

gildage