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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Asian Demand 'Insatiable' as Western Gold Moves East

"We are getting pretty far down the slippery slope towards the collapse of the economic, financial and monetary world as we know it. It's just a matter of what blows up [or melts down] first."

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

The gold price opened quietly higher in Far East trading during their Monday morning...and by 2:15 p.m. Hong Kong time the price was up a magnificent seven dollars or so from Friday's New York close.

Then the price caught a bit of a bid...with the high of the day coming at the London a.m. gold fix around 10:30 British Summer Time [5:30 a.m. Eastern]. But minutes after Comex trading began in New York, gold got sold off about fifteen dollars or so. The tiny rally that followed got sold off the moment that Comex trading ended...and trading in the New York Access Market began.

Gold hit its New York low just a few minutes before 3:30 p.m...and then rallied back almost to the Comex opening price. Gold finished at $1,600.90 spot...up $36.10 on the day. Estimated net volume was around 140,000 contracts.

Silver's price was more 'volatile' in early Far East trading. A sustained rally began about 11:30 a.m. Hong Kong time...with the price spike and high of the day coming shortly after 1:00 p.m. London time...8:00 a.m. in New York.

Then, like the gold price, moments after trading began in New York, the selling began...and a not-for-profit seller peeled 90 cents off the price in just over an hour. From there, the silver price never got back above $31...or below $30.40.

Once the thinly-traded electronic session started at 1:30 p.m. Eastern time, the silver price got sold off about 80 cents, before recovering a hair into the close. The price finished the day at $30.49 spot...up 52 cents. Net volume was around 40,000 contracts.

The gold shares gapped up...and hit their peak about fifteen minutes after the equity markets open...and then began a long, slow slide. Despite the fact that the gold price finished up 2% on the day, the shares couldn't hold their gains...and the HUI finished down 1.19%.

Despite the fact that silver finished up on the day as well, the silver shares got hit pretty hard...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index finished down 2.40%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

It's pretty much a given that if the general equity markets hadn't tanked yesterday, the precious metal shares would have done much better.

The CME's Daily Delivery Report for October 3rd showed that 216 gold and 7 silver contracts were posted for delivery tomorrow. The biggest long/stopper/receiver was JPMorgan in its client account with 156 contracts. The link to the action is here.

There wasn't much activity in GLD yesterday, as a very tiny 9,732 troy ounces were added...and there were no changes reported in SLV.

It was a pretty big sales day for the U.S. Mint yesterday as 8,500 ounces of gold eagles...3,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 737,000 silver eagles were reported sold on October 1st.

It was a busy day for one of the Comex-approved depositories on Friday. A total of 1,237,734 ounces of silver were shipped in...and a very skinny 9,420 ounces were shipped out. Virtually every ounce received ended up in Scotia Mocatta's vault. The link to that action is here.

After such a tumultuous week, silver analyst Ted Butler had a rather long essay for his clients on Saturday. Here's a free paragraph...

"From the recent high point in the total commercial net short position in COMEX gold futures of over 287,600 contracts on August 2nd, that position has been reduced by 121,000 contracts (12.1 million oz) to the current reading of 166,700 contracts. This is the lowest total commercial net short position in more than two years, back to when gold was priced at less than $1000 an ounce. Since August 2nd, the commercials first covered to the upside (unexpected) and then to the downside in price (expected). Over that time, the price of gold first rose by $300 and then fell by that same amount. During this almost two month period of time, there was little notable net change in the reported holdings in gold ETFs or other documentable holdings. The most significant and verifiable net change in world gold holdings occurred on the COMEX, to the tune of the 12.1 million ounces just described. In a nutshell, the net change in the COMEX commercial net short position was what drove the price; nothing else visible in the world of gold drove the price. As a reminder, just like in silver, the COMEX futures market is clearly setting the price. This is in stark contrast to commodity law, which holds that futures trading should discover, not set the price. It further suggests that the CME Group, owner of the COMEX, is every bit the criminal enterprise I allege it to be."

October 1st is the National Day of the People's Republic of China. It is also a public holiday. The National Day marks the start of one of the two Golden Weeks in the PRC.

Here's a really neat picture of a 99.999% pure gold bar that weighs 200 kilos...one tenth of a tonne...or 3,215 troy ounces. It was on display in a department store/mall in China.

There are quite a few more pictures of this monster taken from different angles...and you can find them posted at the fofoa.blogstpot.com website linked here. They are well worth the look, and I thank Manchester, U.K. reader 'John R' for sharing that with us.

I have a huge list of stories and interviews for you today. I'm posting everything, because world events are now moving so fast that news stories have a very short [sometimes only hours long] shelf life these days. As always, the final edit is up to you.

¤ Critical Reads

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SEC finds failures at credit raters

No! Really? Who would have thought that?

Securities and Exchange Commission staff found "apparent failures" at each of the 10 credit rating agencies they examined, including Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch, the agency said on Friday in its first annual report on credit raters.

The SEC sent letters outlining the staff's concerns to each of the ratings firms and demanded a remediation plan with 30 days, an agency official said in a conference call with reporters.

The SEC staff said concerns include failures to follow ratings methodologies, failures in making timely and accurate disclosures and failures to manage conflicts of interest.

This is a Reuters story from last Friday...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for sending it along...and the link is here.

Meet the Texan investor who made millions from the credit crunch... and now he stands to make 65,000% profit if Europe goes down the drain

A Greek default would make it pay down its debt by around 70 per cent, meaning every $1,100 bet would net him an astonishing $700,000, Kyle Bass said.

He said his mother tells him to put his money in 'guns and gold'.

Mr. Lewis recalled him pulling out a huge gold brick from his desk drawer and saying: 'We’ve bought a lot of this stuff.'

Mr. Bass, who lives in a 40,000 sq. ft. house, has also bought 20 million nickels for $1 million. He said the metal inside each coin is worth 6.8 cents.

‘It may not be the end of the world,’ Mr. Bass added. ‘But a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money. Our goal is not to be one of them.'

This story was in the U.K.'s Daily Mail yesterday...and I thank British reader Tariq Khan for sending it to us...and the link is here.

Thousands rally in Portugal to protest austerity plans

Thousands demonstrated in Portugal Saturday against the government's austerity measures amid projections that the economic situation is far worse than expected.

In April, Portugal became the third eurozone country after Greece and Ireland to request an emergency bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund to deal with its mountain of debt.

In exchange for the 78 billion euro ($106 billion) the country agreed to impose reforms demanded by its creditors, including tough budget cutting measures.

Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho's right-of-centre government, which unseated the Socialists in a June vote, has promised further austerity, which is favoured the EU and IMF, but loathed by those on the streets Saturday.

This AFP story was posted over at the france24.com website on Saturday...and is Roy Stephens first offering of the day. The link is here.

Greeks Move to Slash State Jobs for 30,000

After marathon talks with foreign auditors, the Greek government said Sunday that it had reached a deal on how to slash its unwieldy public sector by putting 30,000 workers on a scheme that would lead to early retirement for some and dismissal for others, in a bid to meet conditions set by foreign lenders for the release of crucial emergency loans.

The Greek government is in a race against time to convince representatives of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, known as the troika, that it will make good on pledges to put its financial house in order. Without the release of about $11 billion in aid — part of a 110-billion-euro bailout agreement reached last year — Greece could run out of money this month and face a default that would shake the euro zone and global markets.

This story was posted in The New York Times on Sunday...and is Roy Stephens second offering of the day. The link is here.

Bad News from Athens: Greek Budget Figures Complicate Bailout Efforts

This spiegel.de story was posted the day after the above story appeared in The New York Times...and shows how fluid the situation really is...and steep the slippery slope has become.

What a difference a weekend makes. On Sunday, Greece announced that its 2011 budget deficit will be 8.5 percent of gross domestic product, well higher than the 7.6 percent it targeted last year as part of its ambitious plan to return to fiscal health. And on Monday, new figures indicate that the country's economy will contract by 2.5 percent in 2012 instead of the hoped for growth of 0.6 percent. Stock markets around the world plunged as a result.

The figures have been made public as officials in Athens struggle to put together a budget for 2012 amid growing doubts that the country will be able to avoid insolvency.

This third Roy Stephens offering was posted over at the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and the link is here.

Merkel and the Euro: Is Germany's Finance Minister Going Rogue?

Many conservative parliamentarians, regardless of their position on the common currency, feel as if they are being treated with contempt. His statements made during the euro crisis have rarely been unequivocal; he always leaves himself a way out. Not only does this confuse his political friends and foes, it also flusters the financial world, with its propensity for panic.

Many German politicians are also insinuating that he has a hidden agenda. They fear that one of the last fully committed supporters of the European project is taking advantage of the crisis to advance his dream of a United States of Europe -- at almost any price. Even the chancellor is sometimes annoyed by the finance minister's moves.

This is another Roy Stephens offering from spiegel.de yesterday...and the link is here.

European Union elite lost at sea: Alasdair Macleod

Economist and former banker Alasdair Macleod, who spoke at GATA's Gold Rush 2011 conference in London in August, writes today at GoldMoney that Europe's main problems are ever-growing government and ever-weakening currency. Macleod writes:

"The deterioration in the underlying quality of private-sector business, the result of central planning and needless regulation, has been concealed by the expansion of bank credit, which has fueled both private- and public-sector debt. According to the International Monetary Fund, at the end of 2010 gross government debt-to-GDP for the Euro area was 87%, and household debt 72%, giving a total of 159%. Germany itself was running a combined total of 142%, which is often overlooked. On these figures alone, it is clear that the Keynesian solution of more government spending as the route to salvation is unaffordable, whatever the economic arguments."

I stole the introduction from a GATA release yesterday...and the link to the goldmoney.com article is here.

This collapse is bigger than government or central banks: James Turk

With stocks plunging once again, King World News interviewed James Turk out of London to get his take on the ongoing financial crisis. When asked about the increasing fear surrounding what is happening in Europe, Turk responded, “The situation here in Europe, Eric, continues to get worse. Earlier today, Greece announced they are missing their deficit reduction targets. As the day progressed, bank stocks continued to get hit and the EU finance ministers meeting ended without any new ideas. Attention is now being focused on the banks and in particular whether Germany is going to continue writing more checks.”

Eric sent me this KWN blog yesterday...and the link is here.

Exclusive: CFTC lacks votes on position-limit plan

The U.S. futures regulator delayed a final vote on controversial measures to crack down on excessive speculation in commodity markets because it lacks the three votes needed for approval, sources familiar with the situation told Reuters on Wednesday.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced on Tuesday it was delaying by another two weeks to October 18 its meeting to consider the long-awaited rule on position limits. It was the second time a vote had been postponed.

This Reuters story was posted in The Baltimore Sun last week...and I thank reader John Bastian for sending it along. The link is here.

COMEX owner tries to lure more gold out for bullion bank leasing

Gold? Sure, We’ll take more of that, says the CME...

CME Group will today increase to $500 million the amount of physical gold its U.S. clearing members can post as collateral for margin requirements, from the existing $200 million.

The step is the latest in a string of moves by exchanges and other financial services firms to increase the use of gold as collateral, which essentially places the precious metal in the top tier of asset classes.

This story was posted over at The Wall Street Journal yesterday...and I thank Edmonton reader 'Ray' for bringing it to our attention. The link is here.

Gold posts big Q3 gain despite sharp monthly drop

Gold rose on Friday on lingering worries of a global economic slowdown, and the price of bullion notched its biggest quarterly gain of this year even after a sharp pullback from a record hit this month.

Gold posted a quarterly gain of 8 percent -- its biggest this year, despite a drop of 11 percent for September -- its largely monthly decline in three years.

This Reuters story from Friday is Roy Stephens last offering of the day...and the photo alone is worth the trip. The link is here.

Gold to regain glitter, say bankers to the rich

Wealthy individuals should buy gold as it has become an attractive investment following last month's sharp reversal, private bankers in Asia said on Monday.

"Gold at $2,000 is absolutely, potentially on the up-track, despite the selloff. That is sort of the immediate target," Marcel Kreis, Credit Suisse's head of private banking for Asia-Pacific, told the Reuters Wealth Management Summit in Singapore.

The $2,000 per ounce level was Credit Suisse's 12-month target, he added.

I thank reader 'David in California' for sending me this Reuters story filed from Singapore yesterday...and the link is here.

Financial Times lets someone say something good about gold

GATA's secretary treasurer Chris Powell couldn't figure out how a positive story about gold found its way into the Financial Times...but it did.

The story, headlined Gold Can Still Outshine Mere Cash, is subscriber protected...but it's printed in the clear in this GATA release. It's well worth the read...and the link is here.

Qatari wealth fund plans $10 billion gold mine buying spree

The Qatari royal family plans to spend up to $10 billion (L6.4 billion) buying stakes in gold producers through their sovereign wealth fund, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.

The fund is seeking to invest in a range of natural resources, but gaining access to physical gold is its top strategic priority.

This story showed up in The Telegraph yesterday...and I stole it from a GATA release. The link is here.

Battered gold bugs still defying bear raid: Peter Brimelow

Gold bugs have been shaken by the size of what they see as a manipulative bear raid, but they still believe that Asian off take underpins the market.

Gold had been declining for several days, but in the early Asian hours of Monday Sept. 26 it was struck a terrific blow, plunging $130 in a few hours before recovering.

The break has provoked a great deal of suspicion. Veteran Ross Norman, now of the U.K. gold-dealing site Sharps Pixley, remarked of the sellers: "Placing such a huge order into the market when the least number of market participants were active tells you that they were out for dramatic effect. Anyone looking to offload significant amounts of metal at the best possible price would have done so when both London and New York were both [open]. Clearly finessing gold into the market was not their motive -- they wanted a statement." [Note to Norman: This is the work of what I call the not-for-profit sellers, with JPMorgan leading the pack. - Ed]

This marketwatch.com story from yesterday is a must read...and the link is here.

Asian demand 'insatiable' as Western gold moves east, London trader tells King World News

The Asians have been buying like crazy, all through this takedown they have been buying. We have seen massive premiums and bottlenecks in supply, they simply cannot get enough physical metal as the prices have dropped. The demand has literally been insatiable. As I have stated before, the central bank gold, which was used to sell the market down, has gone to vaults in Asia.

Eric sent me this blog yesterday...and the link is here.

Gold will rise as ECB and euro sink, fund manager Zulauf tells GoldMoney's Turk

Interviewed by GoldMoney's James Turk, Swiss fund manager Felix Zulauf explains how the European Central Bank is losing solvency and credibility and why he thinks gold will go higher with debasement of the euro. The video interview is 22 minutes long and is posted over at the goldmoney.com website. The link is here.

¤ The Funnies

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¤ The Wrap

These days many politicians are demanding change. Just like homeless people. - George Carlin

Well, for the third business day running, the CME has not posted the preliminary open interest numbers in gold and silver on their website. Normally they're up by now...4:00 a.m. Eastern. I was hoping that this wasn't about to become a permanent change...but it looks like it has.

The final open interest numbers for Friday were another surprise, as gold open interest fell another decent chunk. Since the Tuesday cut-off on September 27th, gold open interest has declined another 26,000 contracts.

Silver's open interest for Friday showed a smallish decline as well...and is also down since the Tuesday cut-off for last Friday's Commitment of Traders Report.

Today at 1:30 p.m. Eastern time is the cut-off for this Friday's COT report...and if the technical fund longs don't pour in on the long side in silver and gold today, then this next COT report should show another big decline in the Commercial net short positions in both metals.

While I'm talking about the Commercial net short position...which is the Commercial long position minus the Commercial short position...I have a correction that I wish to make to a paragraph I wrote in 'The Wrap' in my Saturday column. Technical analysis wonk [and daily reader] Scott Pluschau was kind enough to point this out to me early on Saturday, shortly after my column was posted.

Here's the way the paragraph appeared..."One thing I should point out is the fact that despite these huge declines in open interest in both metals that were reported in yesterday's COT report, only some of the decline was the 'big 8' covering short positions. Most of the improvement came from the smaller Commercial traders [Ted Butler's raptors] going long. This has the mechanical effect of decreasing open interest...but they will be selling for a profit as prices rise...and then the opposite will occur as they sell their longs... as open interest will then increase for the same mechanical reason."

Everywhere I say 'open interest'...I meant to say 'the Commercial net short position'. I apologize for any confusion this may have caused.

We are getting pretty far down the slippery slope towards the collapse of the economic, financial and monetary world as we know it. It's just a matter of what blows up [or melts down] first. The current situation can't last much longer...and it's just a matter of how big and bad the black swan is going to be when it finally does surface.

I note that gold made three rally attempts during Far East trading earlier today...and all three ran into not-for-profit sellers...particularly the one that occurred at the London open...which was shortly after 3 p.m. Hong Kong time. JPMorgan also hit the silver price pretty hard at the London open as well. As of 4:15 Eastern time, both silver and gold are back to their New York closing prices on Monday afternoon...but have recovered a bit as I hit the 'send' button at 5:09 a.m. Gold volume was already pretty heavy but, surprisingly, silver's net volume was pretty light. It appears that, for the moment, the powers that be aren't going to let the precious metals prices move much higher.

I have no idea what to expect for the rest of the trading, particularly what will happen after the Comex opens at 8:20 a.m. Eastern time this morning. The rallies in both metals got capped during New York trading yesterday, so one has to wonder what JPMorgan et al will have planned for today.

See you tomorrow.

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