the only thing one has to 'guess' is the timing. This month? Next month? The month after?
We will only know as the days pass. With the massive monetary 'dilution' that is on deck, we all know how paper covers rock in the futures markets...especially the CME and COMEX....and the ETFs. If anyone has the temerity to question the resolve and objectives of the Central Banks, Fed. and JP....go for it.
My 'guess' is that we see the usual takedown in silver, gold and their stocks over the next few weeks. AUM falls into that category...as do all the other stocks I own. The scope of the takedown is also up in the air. The mess at MF Global is as loud and clear a message that the powers that be will now stop at nothing to save their asses...because things have now gone way past the point of no return. Bernie Madoff was a temporary amusment.
When the Secret London Gold Pool still operates and huge deposits of German, and who-knows-how-many other country's, fund's, bank's etc., gold bullion is firmly buried in US vaults ( 'custodians you say? )...and US gold... supposedly 8000 tons of reserves have been sold and leveraged many tmes over...then nothing will surprise me. He who holds the gold owns the gold...even if it isn't his'n he ain't going to prison...not Uncle Sam!
Let me be the very first to say that if I a wrong, I will be equally as happy as all here.