Ed Steer this morning
posted on
Dec 16, 2011 09:20AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Bad Publicity Bullish For Gold: John Hathaway
"I have no idea when the next rally in gold and silver will begin, or how far it will be allowed to run when it does."
Gold sold off about ten dollars by 3:00 p.m. Hong Kong time...and then rallied until just before 1:00 p.m. in London. Then the gold price rolled over from there, hitting its low of the day at 10:45 a.m. in New York.
The subsequent rally didn't get far...and the price traded quietly in a tight range for the rest of the New York trading session.
The gold price closed at $1,570.60 spot...down 5.90 on the day. Net gold volume was a pretty chunk 195,000 contracts.
Silver traded a dollar lower until 3:00 p.m. Hong Kong time...and then rallied back to unchanged by 8:30 a.m. in London, before trading sideways until exactly 9:30 a.m. in New York. Then silver got sold off for 80 cents...and it's low came at 10:45 a.m...the same time as gold's low.
The rally that followed managed to get the silver price into positive territory by the end of trading in the New York Access Market. Silver closed at $29.28 spot...up 32 cents on the day. Volume was a chunky 45,000 contracts.
The dollar didn't do a lot, drifting lower and closing down about 20 basis points on the day.
The gold shares started off the trading day in positive territory, but that didn't last very long. The bottom came at 10:45 a.m....the low for both gold and silver. The shape of the HUI and the Dow charts looked like carbon copies of each other...except for the fact the Dow finished up...and the HUI closed down 1.47%.
With the odd exception, the silver shares fared better than their golden cousins...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed down only 0.87%.
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The CME Daily Delivery Report showed that 632 gold and 9 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Tuesday. In gold, Goldman Sachs and HSBC were the two big short/issuers...and JPMorgan and HSBC were the big long/stoppers. So far in December...2.1 million ounces of gold have changed ownership on the Comex, but not one bar of that has been taken off the exchange, although it may have changed racks in the warehouses. The link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report is here.
There were some withdrawals from both GLD and SLV yesterday. GLD had a very chunky withdrawal of 476,494 troy ounces...and SLV holdings declined by 826,624 ounces.
The U.S. Mint had another sales report yesterday. They sold 6,000 ounces of gold eagles...1,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 50,000 silver eagles.
The extent of the activity at the Comex-approved depositories on Wednesday was a tiny withdrawal of 1,897 troy ounces of silver.
One thing that Ted Butler and I talked about on the phone yesterday were the new short interest positions in both SLV and GLD. The latest report came out a couple of days ago...and it showed that GLD's short position was down 31.1% from the previous report two weeks ago. Two weeks ago, the short interest in GLD was 22 million units...and now it's down to 15.2 million units. That's a big change.
However, in SLV, the change went in the other direction, as the short interest increased by 9.7%. The number of units/ounces short rose from 23 million to 25.2 million, which was not what either Ted nor myself were hoping for.
The next short interest report isn't out for another couple of weeks...and after the price action this week, we're both expecting big declines in both. We'll see.
For a change, I don't have that many stories today, so I hope you'll have time to run through most of them.
Despite a seasonal slowdown in overall foreclosure activity, and a process still bogged down and backed up by the "robo-signing" processing scandal, the U.S real estate market is about to be hit by another surge of bank repossessions, according to a new report from the online foreclosure sale site RealtyTrac. As banks resubmit millions of documents and courts begin hearing cases again, the backlog of over four million delinquent loans will start surging through the pipeline again.
"November’s numbers suggest a new set of incoming foreclosure waves, many of which may roll into the market as REOs [bank repossessions] or short sales sometime early next year,” said James Saccacio, co-founder of RealtyTrac. “Overall foreclosure activity is down 14 percent from a year ago, the smallest annual decrease over the past 12 months, and some bellwether states such as California, Arizona and Massachusetts actually posted year-over-year increases in foreclosure activity in November."
This story, posted over at the cnbc.com website yesterday, was sent to me by West Virginia reader Elliot Simon...and the link is here.
In a statement accompanying a filing in Federal District Court in New York, the agency cited “legal error” in the decision in late November and said it would ask the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit to overturn the opinion of Judge Jed S. Rakoff. In the ruling, the judge rejected an agreement for Citigroup to pay $285 million and accept an injunction against future violations of an antifraud provision of federal securities laws.
Judge Rakoff’s ruling shook a central pillar of federal securities law, potentially upending a practice that allows the S.E.C. to settle hundreds of enforcement cases each year. The commission usually settles charges with companies by getting them to pay a fine and agreeing to reimburse investors without making them admit or deny the charges.
This story was posted in The New York Times yesterday...and was provided courtesy of reader Phil Barlett. The link is here.
Fitch Ratings says U.S. government financial support for banks is declining and argues that future bailouts will likely be restricted to just eight lenders it regards systematically important.
In a report issued Thursday on the prospect for future government aid to troubled banks, Fitch concludes that only Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Bank of America Corp., Bank of New York Mellon Corp., Citigroup Inc., JP Morgan Chase & Co., State Street Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. are candidates for government financial support.
Fitch has a support rating floor for these banks of "A," down from "A+."
This AP story is another Phil Barlett offering from yesterday's New York Times...and the link to that is here.
Chris Powell sent out the following GATA dispatch last night.
GATA's friends at the Berger and Montague law firm in Philadelphia have been asked to bring a federal class-action lawsuit seeking recovery for clients of the MF Global brokerage house who were expropriated in the firm's collapse. MF Global clients interested in participating in the lawsuit should contact Berger and Montague's Merrill Davidoff at mdavidoff@bm.net or 215-875-3084...or Michael DellAngelo at mdellangelo@bm.net or 215-875-3080.
The link to the GATA release is here.
Some of the world’s most powerful investment banks were downgraded by ratings agency Fitch as Germany’s cherished European fiscal compact appeared to be unravelling.
Mario Draghi delivered a speech in Berlin on Thursday and said there's "no external savior" for heavily indebted governments in the eurozone debt crisis.
Amid fresh warnings that Europe is triggering a 1930s-style global depression, the German chancellor faced open rebellion against the key plank of her Brussels accord. The leaders of Hungary and the Czech Republic told a joint conference in Budapest they were ready to reject the planned treaty changes and implied move towards a centralised tax system. Czech prime minister Petr Necas said he was “convinced that tax harmonisation would not mean anything good for us”.
This must read story was posted in The Telegraph late last night...and is Roy Stephens first offering of the day. The link is here.
Like much of what passes as agreed policy in Europe these days, the deal announced only last weekend to address the eurozone's gathering debt storm is fast unravelling.
Key objections have been raised in national parliaments to the fiscal disciplines that the new, and spectacularly mis-named, "stability union" imposes on members of the eurozone, while the beefed-up financial backstop to halt further market contagion already looks pretty much dead in the water.
Nor is it just within the narrow confines of the eurozone that the financial crisis is testing multilateral solutions close to destruction. Who could in any case regard the vicious programme of austerity measures prescribed by multilateral arrangements as any kind of solution?
Most shareholders in the International Monetary Fund, including Britain and the US, are balking at the idea of coughing up yet more money to bail out Europe's monetary union.
This is another must read that was posted at the telegraph.com website last evening. It's another Roy Stephens offering of course...and the link is here.
In a speech on Thursday, Lagarde said that if countries don’t work together, the world will face a situation similar to the 1930s, before the world slid into World War II.
“There is no economy in the world, whether low-income countries, emerging markets, middle-income countries or super-advanced economies that will be immune to the crisis that we see not only unfolding, but escalating at a point where everybody would actually have to focus on what it can do,” Lagarde said.
If the international community doesn’t work together, “the risk from an economic point of view is that of retraction, rising protectionism, isolation,” Lagarde said. “This is exactly the description of what happened in the ‘30s and what followed is not something we are looking forward to.”
This Bloomberg story from yesterday morning was sent to me by reader Scott Pluschau...and it's worth skimming. The link is here.
"As European leaders press forward with failed attempt after failed attempt to suppress borrowing cost, control spending, reduce deficits and prop up what the markets have already told us is a broken monetary system..."
This 11-minute CNBC video interview with Kyle Bass was done on Wednesday...and I thank reader Lance Gilason for sharing it with us. It's a must watch for sure...and the link is here.
According to the Australian Finance Review, banks down under "have been given 1 week by regulators to stress test how they would handle a spike in joblessness, plunge in home prices spurred by EU debt crisis." Aka: a European "Meltdown".
This zerohedge.com piece from yesterday afternoon was sent to me by reader Phil Barlett...and it's certainly worth a minute of your time. The link is here.
Here's an interview that Eric did with Jim Rickards yesterday. He sent me the blog very late last night. It's definitely worth the read...and the link is here.
Marketwatch reported yesterday that market analyst and gold advocate Peter Grandich's million-dollar gold price challenge has had no takers so far...and Peter follows up on the challenge in commentary posted at his internet site yesterday.
All of the links are contained in this GATA release...and the link to that is here.
"Silver is much more than jewelry and sterling tableware," says Terry Hanlon, President of Dillon Gage. "It's not just for wedding presents and birthday gifts but has widespread uses throughout the economy."
Strong, malleable silver can be made into various forms, wires and threads. It's a good electrical and thermal conductor for all types of circuits and connections. Silver conducts rather than absorbs heat and can endure temperature swings, making it an excellent soldering agent for joints that undergo expansion or contraction in heat and cold. It's also a reflector and has anti-bacterial properties.
World industrial demand for silver could reach a record 665.9 million ounces in 2015 versus 487.4 million in 2010, according to a Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS) study for The Silver Institute, released in early April.
This silver-friendly story was posted over at the mineweb.com Internet site yesterday...and I thank Matt Nel for bringing it to my attention. The link is here.
Here's a blog that Eric posted over at his kingworldnews.com website yesterday. This Richard Russell piece is worth the read...and the link is here.
Tocqueville Gold Fund manager John Hathaway told King World News yesterday that the explosion of bad publicity about gold is bullish for the metal. Monetary debasement not only continues but, Hathaway adds, is the only option for governments and central banks.
I borrowed Chris Powell's introduction from a GATA release yesterday evening...and the link to this must read KWN blog is here.
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Yesterday's price action in both metals didn't come as a total surprise but, as per usual, both gold and silver got hit again during the Comex trading session in New York.
For a change, the preliminary open interest numbers for Thursday's trading activity showed smallish declines in both gold and silver...but what the means as far as a reduction in the Commercial net short position won't be known until next Friday's Commitment of Traders Report.
The final open interest numbers for Wednesday's trading day still showed very large increases in open interest and, like Thursday's open interest numbers, what they all mean will have to wait until next Friday's COT report as well...as this week's big down-leg didn't start until a few minutes after Tuesday's cut-off for today's COT report...and as I said before, that was probably deliberately planned that way.
Today's COT report will be posted on the CFTC's website at 3:30 p.m. Eastern time sharp...and I'll be looking forward to those numbers with more than the usual amount of interest. So will a lot of other people.
Here's the 6-month gold chart. As you can see, the RSI has now dipped well into oversold territory. I wouldn't be surprised if we hung around this price level a bit...and I have no idea when the next rally in gold and silver will begin, or how far it will be allowed to run when it does...as it all depends on whether the Commercial traders will be stepping in as not-for-profit sellers of last resort, as there are no legitimate short sellers left at these price levels.
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Here's the six month silver chart. Except for the big spike down on September 26th, this is the lowest price that silver has painted since February. Silver is certainly all cleaned out to the downside at this point.
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Both gold and silver rallied quietly through most of the Far East trading session earlier today...and both metals are still trending higher now that London has been open for a couple of hours. Volumes are already pretty decent...and I'm guess that the high-frequency traders are out and about in both metals.
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With today being Friday, I have no clue as to what the precious metals are going to do. If they didn't do much of anything, that certainly wouldn't surprise me...but if we have a big rally, that wouldn't surprise me either. Whatever happens, I'm ready for it.
I hope you have a terrific weekend...and I'll see you here on Saturday sometime.