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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Tocqueville's Hathaway Sees 'Panic Liquidation' in Gold

"The rally that follows this clean-out in silver should be something to see...especially with the short-side fuel that's been added during the last few weeks."

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

The gold price drifted about ten dollars lower during Far East trading during their Wednesday, with the London low coming about 10:00 a.m. local time. From there, the price began to rally...and was back to Tuesday's closing price by 9:00 a.m. in New York. Then the selling began in earnest...and the gold price headed for the nether reaches of the earth.

Gold's low price tick of the day [$1,548.80 spot] came at precisely 3:30 p.m. Eastern time in the New York Access Market, where only the big U.S. bullion banks are allowed to play. From that low, gold recovered about five bucks going into the close of electronic trading at 5:15 p.m.

Gold closed at $1,556.30 spot...down $36.00 on the day. Holiday trading volume was a monstrous 122,000 contracts compared to only 49,000 contracts on Tuesday.

The silver price was pretty flat all through the Far East and London sessions...and was only down about a dime when Comex trading began at 8:20 a.m. Eastern time in New York. The silver price didn't start heading south until 9:25 a.m...and within thirty-five minutes was down a buck...and then slowly sold off some more from there, with the absolute low of the day [$26.78 spot] coming a few minutes before 4:00 p.m. in electronic trading. From that point, silver gained back about two bits going into the close.

The silver price closed at $27.15 spot...down $1.58...or 5.50%. Wednesday's volume was a very robust 32,500 contracts...compared to a miniscule 12,500 contracts on Tuesday.

According to Kitco's numbers, gold closed down 2.26%, silver was down 5.50%, platinum down 2.94%...and palladium closed down 3.19%. As is almost always the case, it's silver that gets in the neck, as the big commercial traders attempt to cover as many short positions as they can.

The dollar traded sideways in very quiet trading until about 9:10 a.m. Eastern time, when a huge rally came out of nowhere...and by 11:30 a.m. the dollar had gained about 85 basis points...a bit over one percent.

Although this dollar rally coincided with the fall in gold prices quite nicely, the dollar was down 40+ basis points before someone decided that silver's price should also be going lower...which it did about fifteen minutes after the gold price headed south.

Once the top of the dollar 'rally' was in at 11:30 a.m...the dollar traded sideways for the rest of the day.

If I had to bet a dollar, it would be that this 'surprise' dollar rally...and the subsequent smashing of the precious metal prices...was an engineered event as there was absolutely no news of any type to substantiate what happened.

The gold stocks got hit pretty hard...and by around 11:45 a.m. in New York, all the losses were in...and the HUI traded sideways from there, even though the gold price continued to decline for the rest of the day. The HUI finished down 3.58%.

It was the same story in silver...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed down 4.91%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

One thing I did check yesterday was the current short interest in SLV that's posted every two weeks over at the shortsqueeze.com website. It showed that the short position in SLV declined by 3.2 million units/ounces over the last couple of weeks. SLV's short position is down to 22.0 million ounces, which is still preposterously higher for a hard metal fund.

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 88 gold and 4 silver contracts were posted for delivery tomorrow...and that does it for the December delivery month. First Day Notice for January delivery should be posted later today, but I'm not expecting there to be much, as January is not a big delivery month in either gold or silver.

There were no reported changes in either GLD or SLV yesterday...and the U.S. Mint only reported selling 2,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes.

It was a busy day over at the Comex-approved depositories on Tuesday, as they reported receiving 1,300,864 troy ounces of silver on Tuesday...and didn't ship a single ounce out the door.

Silver analyst Ted Butler had his mid-week commentary for his clients yesterday...and I've borrowed a few paragraphs from it...

"It’s no fun for silver investors to have to live through the current slam down in prices. Knowing that the sell-off is intentional makes the pain more acute. The sell-off this week, in particular, has taken on the characteristics of an historic bottom. Since the predominance of the evidence indicates that silver is oversold on an absolute basis and relative to just about everything else, the most logical investment approach is to treat it as a bottom. A deliberately created bottom, but a bottom nevertheless. That means holding or buying, not selling."

"There is only one thing that could possibly account for the stunning price collapse, namely, the tremendous change in net holdings on the world’s largest silver futures exchange, the COMEX (owned by the CME Group). As indicated in the COT report of September 6, when the price of silver was around $42, the total commercial net short position was 47,300 contracts. In the most recent COT report for positions held as of December 13, the total commercial net short position declined to 14,800 contracts (with further reduction likely in Friday’s new report and beyond, given the continued decline in price since the last report). The commercials were able to reduce their total net short position by 32,500 contracts on the 35% price collapse. That’s the equivalent of 162.5 million ounces of silver."

Reader Scott Pluschau sent me this technical analysis he did on the silver price movements over the last little while. The TA work is excellent but, as I always tell Scott, the '8 or less' commercial traders can paint any chart pattern they want...and that's probably what they did here. Here's the link to Scott's short piece, which is worth the read...and contains two terrific graphs.

I have the usual number of stories for you today, so I hope you will be able to skim most of them without taking up too much of your day.

¤ Critical Reads

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Whistleblower documents illuminate case against B of NY Mellon

Confidential whistleblower documents that helped spark a massive state and federal investigation into how Bank of New York Mellon Corp charged pension funds for currency exchange, provide a rare window into how a bank insider aided a lawsuit against the bank.

The information provided by whistleblower Grant Wilson, who worked at BNY Mellon, included a detailed analysis of how the bank allegedly provided "fictitious" foreign-currency costs for pension funds.

The analysis included a step-by-step guide to how currencies were traded and internal profits generated by the bank, according to documents seen by Reuters. A memo detailing fellow employees also was provided.

This Reuters story was picked up by finance.yahoo.com late yesterday afternoon...and is Elliot Simon's first contribution to today's column. It's a must read for sure...and the link is here.

S.E.C. Wins Delay in Citigroup Fraud Case

A federal appeals court granted an emergency ruling late Tuesday that temporarily halted proceedings in the Security and Exchange Commission's case against Citigroup. The decision will allow the court to consider an appeal of a lower court’s decision to throw out a $285 million fraud settlement between the commission and Citigroup.

The United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, based in New York, ruled that further action in the case would be delayed until at least Jan. 17, giving it time to rule on whether it would grant an expedited hearing of the appeal and whether the two sides should have to simultaneously prepare for a trial.

Judge Jed S. Rakoff of Federal District Court in Manhattan threw out the settlement in November and ordered the agency and Citigroup to prepare for a trial in July. Although Citigroup and the S.E.C. have jointly appealed Judge Rakoff’s decision, he said the underlying case should proceed, with the two sides continuing to prepare for court hearings in the case.

This story appeared in Tuesday's edition of The New York Times...and I thank Phil Barlett for sending it along. The link is here.

The Fed's covert bailout of Europe: Gerald P. O'Driscoll

The Fed is using what is termed a "temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangement" with the European Central Bank (ECB). There are similar arrangements with the central banks of Canada, England, Switzerland, and Japan. Simply put, the Fed trades or "swaps" dollars for euros. The Fed is compensated by payment of an interest rate (currently 50 basis points, or one-half of 1%) above the overnight index swap rate. The ECB, which guarantees to return the dollars at an exchange rate fixed at the time the original swap is made, then lends the dollars to European banks of its choosing.

Why are the Fed and the ECB doing this? The Fed could, after all, lend directly to U.S. branches of foreign banks. It did a great deal of lending to foreign banks under various special credit facilities in the aftermath of Lehman's collapse in the fall of 2008. Or the ECB could lend euros to banks and they could purchase dollars in foreign-exchange markets. The world is, after all, awash in dollars.

The two central banks are engaging in this roundabout procedure because each needs a fig leaf. The Fed was embarrassed by the revelations of its prior largess with foreign banks. It does not want the debt of foreign banks on its books. A currency swap with the ECB is not technically a loan.

This story showed up in The Wall Street Journal yesterday...and is posted in the clear in this GATA release...and the link is here.

JPMorgan’s Swaps Occupying Cassino Prove Curse Like World War II

World War II’s Battle for Cassino leveled the Italian town and its hilltop abbey. Now, the 33,000 residents are digging out from the rubble left by Wall Street.

Six decades after U.S.-led forces ousted the Nazis from Cassino, a new generation is grappling with the fallout from the debts of postwar rebuilding -- borrowings that grew because of a derivative that backfired. Soaring costs forced Cassino, 80 miles southeast of Rome, to settle an interest-rate swap with JPMorgan Chase & Co. in 2009, leaving the town unable to pay for daycare for 60 infants and services for the poor.

It sounds like JPMorgan pulled a "Jefferson County" in Cassino, Italy...and I'm sure there are lots more example of this floating around that we haven't heard of yet. I thank Australian reader Wesley Legrand for digging up this businessweek.com story from late last night...and it's certainly worth the read...and the link is here.

Argentina tango lessons: Europe’s turn for financial danse macabre?

Argentina was used as a testing ground by the global power elite to learn how a full-scale financial, monetary, banking and economic collapse can be controlled and its social consequences suitably engineered to ensure that, with time: (a) the bankers came out unharmed, (b) “democratic order” is re-instated and the new government imposes another sovereign debt mega-swap, balance their numbers, and calm the people down (or else!), and (c) put big smiles back on bankster faces…Business as usual!

The lessons learned in Argentina in 2001/3 are today being used in Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Iceland, the UK and the US.

So, “Occupy Wall Street” demonstrators, lend me your ears! You haven’t got a chance! The global money masters already made their financial war game exercise in Argentina.

This is a very interesting article is posted over at the asalbuchi.com.ar website. I consider it a must read...and I thank Roy Stephens for sharing it with us. The link is here.

UK jobs outlook is the 'worst for 20 years'

The UK jobs market in 2012 is set to be in a worse state than at any time in the past two decades, with a “serious risk” of a surge in redundancies, a bitter analysis has warned.

Workers face another year of the severe pay restraint that has characterised the economy since 2008, with companies set for a continued “productivity pause” as they batten down the hatches, the body said.

In a further bleak outlook for the year ahead, a separate report from Totaljobs, the jobs site, warns vacancies will plummet in the first half – particularly among entry-level jobs – causing youth unemployment to rise further beyond the 1 million barrier.

This joyful bit of reading was posted in The Telegraph yesterday morning...and is another Roy Stephens offering. The link is here.

Deeply Divided: New Greek Government Runs Out of Steam

Six weeks after forming a transitional government to overcome its crisis, Greece is still failing to deliver its promised reforms. The cabinet of Prime Minister Lucas Papademos is deeply divided and has lost the public's confidence. Even the most urgent measures have ground to a halt.

The president of Greece's SEV business federation, Dimitris Daskalopoulos, recently invited journalists to his imposing neoclassical headquarters in Athens. He straightened his tie, leaned forward and with a grim expression spoke into half a dozen microphones arrayed in front of him. "Now the issue is simply whether we remain in Europe or not. The governing parties have an obligation to work together honestly to finally banish the nightmare of a return to the drachma. If this government doesn't get it right, Greece will go hungry."

His dramatic appeal was ignored, once again. The Socialist PASOK party, the conservative-liberal New Democracy party and the far-right LAOS party formed a transitional government six weeks ago under non-partisan former central banker Lucas Papademos. They vowed to avert a looming state bankruptcy. But they remain as divided as ever.

This story was posted at the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and is another Roy Stephens offering. The link is here.

Predictions for 2012: eurozone debt crisis

The European debt crisis will dominate 2012. Forget resolutions: leaders will take the embattled eurozone to the edge of the political and economic abyss before deciding to resolve the crisis.

While the leaders wrangle without resolution, sovereign states will crack on. Spain and Italy will reassure markets with their tough austerity plans but on the streets they will face dangerous civil unrest.

It will be the revolts, a sort of Mediterranean Spring, rather than the continued financial traumas, that will eventually goad leaders into action.

This story was posted in The Telegraph early yesterday afternoon...and is Roy Stephens final story in today's column. The link is here.

Iran Threatens to Block Oil Shipments, as U.S. Prepares Sanctions

A senior Iranian official on Tuesday delivered a sharp threat in response to economic sanctions being readied by the United States, saying his country would retaliate against any crackdown by blocking all oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for transporting about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.

The declaration by Iran's first vice president, Mohammad-Reza Rahimi, came as President Obama prepares to sign legislation that, if fully implemented, could substantially reduce Iran’s oil revenue in a bid to deter it from pursuing a nuclear weapons program.

This story appeared in the Tuesday edition of The New York Times...and I thank Phil Barlett for sending it along. The link is here.

Afghanistan, China sign first oil contract

Afghanistan's government signed a deal Wednesday with China's state-owned National Petroleum Corporation, allowing it to become the first foreign company to exploit the country's oil and natural gas reserves.

The contract, which covers the northeastern provinces of Sari Pul and Faryab, is the first of several such blocks to be put on the market in coming months, Afghan Minister of Mines Wahidullah Shahrani said during the signing ceremony.

Afghanistan has been seeking to find ways to exploit some of its mineral wealth to offset the loss of revenues when foreign aid and spending drops when international combat troops leave by the end of 2014. The government has been keen to develop an oil-extraction and refining capability for the landlocked nation, which is entirely reliant on fuel imports from neighboring Iran and Central Asian nations.

This AP story was picked up by finance.yahoo.com yesterday...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for bringing it to my attention. The link is here.

Citing 'financial repression,' FT's Gillian Tett sounds like Jim Rickards and Rob Kirby

A few weeks ago, some senior officials at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi spotted a fascinating fact: For the first time the volume of Japanese government bonds sitting on the bank's balance sheet swelled above corporate and consumer loans.

Welcome to a key theme of 2012. During the past four decades, it was widely assumed in the Western world that the main role of banks and asset managers was to provide funding to the private sector, rather than act as a piggy bank for the state. But now that assumption -- like so many of the other ideas that dominated before 2007 -- is quietly crumbling. And not just in Japan.

And as Chris Powell adds at the beginning of this story..."Suppressing the gold price is a crucial piece of the "financial repression" cited here, as a rising gold price would advertise the theft perpetrated by government bonds paying a negative interest rate."

This Financial Times story from December 22nd is posted in the clear in this GATA release...and the link is here.

Gold left some investors in the dust

Gold has been among the best investments in 2011.

Shares of gold miners? Among the worst.

Gold is up 12% this year but shares of gold miners have fallen almost 16%. Smaller gold miners are down almost 40%, based on the returns of leading exchange-traded funds tracking those stocks.

The surprising gulf has caused pain for some of the biggest names on Wall Street -- including John Paulson, George Soros, David Einhorn, Seth Klarman, and Thomas Kaplan -- many of whom piled into gold shares over the past year, sometimes by shifting away from gold itself.

This story from yesterday's edition of The Wall Street Journal is posted in the clear in another GATA release...and the link to that is here.

Gold Posts Longest Slump Since 2009, Silver Drops on Europe Woes

Gold fell, capping the longest slump since October 2009, and silver tumbled to a three-month low as Europe’s deepening debt crisis drove commodities and stocks lower.

This Bloomberg story was posted over at the businessweek.com website yesterday...and if you believe these reasons why gold and silver 'fell' all of a sudden starting at 9:00 a.m. Eastern time yesterday, then I have some swamp land that I want to sell you real cheap.

I thank Elliot Simon for sending me this piece...and it's worth running through, just for [dis]information purposes only. The link is here.

U.S. Mint says has enough gold, silver Eagles coins

The United States Mint said on Wednesday it has enough American Eagle gold and silver bullion coins to meet demand and does not expect to allocate them in early 2012.

Sales of the U.S. gold and silver bullion coins have slowed in the fourth quarter as precious metals prices retreated from record highs, bucking a trend earlier this year when investors flocked to physical gold and silver as safe havens.

"As we plan on having sufficient quantities of all coins available, we do not anticipate having to allocate the initial release," U.S. Mint spokesman Michael White said in a note.

This short Reuters piece was posted on their website yesterday afternoon...and I thank Scott Pluschau for sending it along. The link is here.

James Turk Audio Interview posted at King World News

In yesterday's column I posted a KWN blog that featured Jim Turk. Eric King sent me the audio interview, which is now posted on his website...and the link is here.

2012 will be harder for metals price suppression, Embry tells King World News

Sprott Asset Management's John Embry told King World News that the fundamentals supporting gold and silver as insurance against monetary debasement remain in place, that Asian demand for the metals is strong, that the market manipulators have an easy time pushing futures prices down during the holiday week, and that he expects 2012 to bring lots more "quantitative easing" and sharply rising metal prices.

This is a must read...and I thank Chris Powell for providing the preamble. The link to the KWN blog is here.

Tocqueville's Hathaway sees 'panic liquidation' in gold

Tocqueville Gold Fund manager John Hathaway today commented to King World News about indicators of a bottom in gold, including "panic liquidation."

“The action is what you would expect in a thin market like this, the moves are exaggerated. The people that have shorts on, which has been the right trade for the last several months, they are just pushing it to the limit (on the downside) to make their year. Obviously it’s uncomfortable to see this kind of action, but, to some extent, you have to look at the context in which you see it.”

“I think it’s games being played and you can always play games in thin markets. The bigger picture is, first of all, we are in a bottoming process for the stocks and the metal. Sentiment is rock bottom. I think we are seeing a number of different things that are indicative of a bottom."

Like John Embry, everything that John Hathaway has to say is a must read as well...and this blog is no exception. The link is here.

¤ The Funnies


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¤ The Wrap

As I said earlier, it's my opinion that what we saw yesterday was an engineered take-down in a lot of commodities on the back of an out-of-the-blue two hour and twenty minute dollar rally. Of course it's almost always the precious metals that 'da boyz' are after in general...and always silver in particular. Yesterday's trading action was proof positive of that once again.

The preliminary open interest numbers for the Wednesday trading day showed minor increases in both metals. Why this would be the case in gold is beyond me...but in silver it could be the result of more shorts being placed by the brain dead technical funds and small traders who are following the chart action.

All this 'fun in the sun' occurred on a Wednesday, the day after the cut-off for tomorrow's Commitment of Traders Report...and I'd be prepared to bet a few dollars that this was deliberate, as this is a trick that JPMorgan et al have used for many years to hide what they are doing as long as possible.

Any way you care to measure it, both gold and silver are hugely oversold...especially silver. Ted Butler mentioned that the Commercial net short position in silver is the smallest it's been since he's been keeping records...and that goes back about 30 years. So it's obvious that this is the mother of all clean-outs. I'll get to silver again in a moment, but here's the 1-year gold chart...

(Click on image to enlarge)

Of course silver is off the charts...and it's almost frightening how oversold it has become. The rally that follows this clean-out in silver should be something to see...especially with the short-side fuel that's been added during the last few weeks. But it remains to be seen if 'da boyz' show up on the short side once again. Here's the 1-year silver chart...

(Click on image to enlarge)

As of 3:34 a.m. Eastern time, gold is down just a few dollars after setting a new low shortly after 3:00 p.m. Hong Kong time...and silver has also recovered a bit...and is only down about a dime now that London has been trading for half an hour or so. Volume in both metals is getting up there. But at least 80% of the volume and price activity comes during the New York trading session...and I expect that to be the case again today.

As Ted Butler, John Hathaway and others have said, we are setting a major bottom in the precious metals...and probably other commodities as well. If you're brave enough to buy while blood is running in the streets, this would be a good time to consider it.

That's all I have for today. See you on Friday.

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