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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Tocqueville's Hathaway Expects 'Terrific Short Squeeze' In Gold

"If these small commercial traders decide to hold off selling as silver and gold prices rise, then a short squeeze in both metals could materialize in a flash."

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

Gold rose about five bucks in rather uneven trading during the Far East session on Tuesday, but headed sharply higher very shortly after the London open. This rally lasted until twenty minutes after trading began on the Comex in New York...and the party was brought to a quick end.

Gold closed at $1,632.20 spot...up $21.20 on the day...but definitely well of its high, which was $1,641.70 spot. Volume, net of all roll-overs, was around 129,000 contracts.

The silver price didn't do a thing through the Far East trading day and...like gold...began to rally shortly after the London market opened. The silver party ended at the same exact time as the gold party was brought to an end, about twenty minutes after New York trading began. Silver's high price tick was $30.45...and then got sold off about two percent from that high price.

Silver closed the electronic trading session in New York at $29.94...up 89 cents on the day. Volume was pretty decent as well...37,500 contracts net.

The dollar index traded within about a 15 basis point range of 80.9 yesterday...and closed virtually unchanged from Monday. It was obviously never a factor in yesterday's price moves in the precious metals complex.

The gold stocks gapped up...and stayed up...although they slid a bit as the day wore on and the gold price eroded. The HUI finished up 1.54% on the day...a full percentage point off its early high tick.

The silver stock did just OK but, like the gold stocks, would have done better if the silver price peak had come while the equity markets were open. Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed up 2.64%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME's Daily Delivery Report was a real yawner yesterday, which should come as no real surprise, as most futures contract holders in January that stood for delivery have received their metal already. There were only 14 gold and 1 silver contracts posted for delivery on Thursday...and the action isn't worth linking.

For the fourth day in a row there were no reported changes in either GLD or SLV.

There was another sales report from the U.S. Mint yesterday. They sold 3,500 ounces of gold eagles...4,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 300,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date the mint has sold 82,500 ounces of gold eagles...7,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 4,257,000 silver eagles. Not a bad start for the year.

Monday was another action-packed day over at the Comex-approved depositories. They took in 1,777,720 troy ounces of silver...and shipped the magnificent sum of 1,984 ounces out the door. The link to that action is here.

Technical analyst Scott Pluschau sent me another one of his blogs yesterday. This one is about silver and he titled it "Silver Futures Inverted H&S Pattern Brewing". It's worth read if you're a T.A. person...and the link is here.

Here's the "Total PMs Pool" chart courtesy of Nick Laird over at sharelynx.com. He notes that..."as you can see, despite the price fluctuations and the sell-offs, the total PMs pool continues to rise."

(Click on image to enlarge)

I don't have a lot of stories for you today, so I hope that you have the time for the ones I do have.

¤ Critical Reads

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Break-Up of CME on the Table: Gasparino

Here's a 5:10 Fox Business News interview with Charlie Gasparino. He has it on good authority that the CME is going to be broken up. I was happy to hear that...and Ted Butler, who has always considered them to be a criminal organization, was dancing on his computer desk when I spoke to him about it yesterday morning. It's a must listen...and I thank reader Kip Lee for sending it along. The link is here.

Corzine Sued by Montana Farmers Over MF Global Futures Account Money

The lawsuit filed today by three farmers and a cattle- raising operation in Montana seeks to represent a nationwide group of commodities futures customers whose money went missing amid the $41 billion bankruptcy of MF Global, parent of the futures brokerage that is being liquidated. A trustee is looking for $1.2 billion or more in money missing from commodity customers’ accounts.

Corzine, the former governor of New Jersey, and other executives at MF Global made “knowingly false statements” to induce the plaintiffs to enter into contracts with the brokerage, according to the complaint filed in federal court in Missoula, Montana.

The executives failed to disclose to customers that their money was used to finance MF Global’s bad bets on European sovereign debt, the farmers said in the complaint.

This Bloomberg piece was forwarded to me by Casey Research's Aaron Bedrick yesterday...and the link is here.

Awaiting a Greek Payout: Hedge Fund the Winners if Greek Bailout Arrives

Could Greece’s next rescue payout go straight into the pockets of London hedge funds?

That, more or less, is the bet that a growing number of investors are making now as they load up on Greek government securities that mature in March. That is when Athens hopes to receive a potentially make-or-break bailout payment — a lifeline of as much as 30 billion euros ($38 billion) from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

Greece’s new prime minister, Lucas D. Papademos, has warned that without that infusion, his country might well default on its debts, a move that might force Greece to leave the euro currency union.

Reader Phil Barlett sent me this story from yesterday's edition of The New York Times...and the link is here.

Economic crisis means the Mafia is now ‘Italy’s number one bank’: report

Organized crime has tightened its grip on the Italian economy during the economic crisis, making the Mafia the country’s biggest “bank” and squeezing the life out of thousands of small firms, according to a report on Tuesday.

Extortionate lending by criminal groups had become a “national emergency,” said the report by anti-crime group SOS Impresa.

Organized crime now generated annual turnover of about €140-billion ($178.89 billion) and profits of more than €100-billion, it added.

I hate to say it, but there's not much difference between the Cosa Nostra and all the power and money in the world on Wall Street. They're one in the same to me. The only major difference is that the crooks on Wall Street have the government protecting their criminal enterprises. Casey Research's own Erik Nelson passed this National Post story around yesterday...and the link is here.

The Escalation: Iran and the West Rediscover Oil as Weapon

Four decades after the 1973 oil shock, Iran and the West are once again embracing oil as a weapon. Tehran is threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz, while the industrialized countries are considering a boycott of Iranian oil. But both sides will suffer if such tactics are used.

Surprisingly enough, supertankers don't burn very well. Although the crude oil they transport is highly flammable, there is not enough oxygen in their tanks to create an explosive mixture.

On average, 14 of these giant tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, every day. If Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad actually ordered his forces to fire missiles at one of these tankers, quite a bit of firepower would be needed to set off a Hollywood-style inferno.

But the verbal attacks from Tehran are more than sufficient to set the global markets ablaze.

This story was posted over at the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and I thank Roy Stephens for sending it along. The link is here.

The war dance is in full swing: Asia Times

If the most recent wave of escalations in the Middle East is a bluff, it is a very convincing one. Russian analysts speculate that a military intervention against either Syria or Iran (or both) could start by the end of the month; the latter is still hard to imagine, but the time frame seems to correspond to the nature of the developments and the rate at which they are being announced.

Barring a full-scale war in the Middle East in the next few weeks, we could think of what is happening on both sides as a modern version of a war dance, a dress rehearsal for a showdown and a spectacle for domestic consumption, for the enemy and for the international community alike.

There is a widespread perception that the crises with both Iran and Syria are nearing a climax. There is a massive Western naval presence off the coasts of both countries, and the opposing sides are conducting war games at a dizzying rate. In fact, it looks suspiciously as if the games are an excuse for them to keep their militaries on near-constant high alert (a dangerous situation, not least because an isolated incident or a miscalculation could lead to a full-scale clash). The diplomatic war is near a peak level as well.

This story was posted in the Asia Times early yesterday morning...and I thank Roy Stephens once again for sharing it with us. The link is here.

Hyperinflation Comes To Iran

An EA source reports that a relative in Tehran ordered a washing machine for 400,000 Toman (about $240) this week. When he went to the shop the next day, he was told that --- amidst the currency crisis and rising import costs --- the price was now 800,000 Toman (about $480). Another EA source says that the price of an item of software for a laptop computer has tripled from 50,000 Toman to 150,000 Toman within days.

[This is a]100% replica of the US-planned Japanese escalation that led to the Pearl Harbor attack, and gave America the green light to enter the war.

For those of you who have never read Robert Stinnett's book Day of Deceit: The Truth about FDR and Pearl Harbor...now would be a good time to do so.

This zerohedge.com piece was sent to my by Australian reader Wesley Legrand. It's a must read...and the link is here.

Iran bans MPs from standing for re-election to parliament

At least 33 Iranian MPs were told on Tuesday that their candidacies had not been approved even though they currently serve in the parliament, local news agencies reported.

Many reformist MPs and even some conservatives are among those barred from running in the March vote, which the country's intelligence minister has described as "the most sensitive elections" since the 1979 Islamic revolution.

Ali Motahari, a conservative MP whose father, Ayatollah Morteza Motahari, was among the key founders of the Islamic republic, is among those on the blacklist. As an outspoken critic of the government's political and economic policies, Motahari was the driving force behind an impeachment motion against Ahmadinejad.

This story showed up in The Guardian yesterday evening...and is courtesy of Roy Stephens. The link is here.

China's trade surplus shrinks as country pledges to boost stock market investments

China's trade surplus shrank last year as import and export growth slowed sharply, official data has showed, after domestic tightening measures and the global economic crisis weighed on consumption.

The figures add to evidence that the Eastern economy is slowing, and will increase pressure on Beijing to further loosen policies to prevent the world's second largest economy from suffering a hard landing.

The news came as China's securities regulator has pledged broad reforms to the country's capital markets, including boosting investment in the stock market, which has slumped to a near three-year low.

This story was posted in The Telegraph yesterday morning...and is Roy Stephens final offering of the day. The link is here.

Everything you wanted to know about gold

This graphics-intensive story showed up as a posting over at the wealthwire.com website yesterday. I can't vouch for the accuracy of the figures, but it appears that the author has done his homework.

Reader Tolling Jennings was the first person through the door with this story yesterday...and it's a must read. Use the 'click to enlarge' feature to bring the commentary up to full-screen size once the website has loaded. The link is here.

Rob McEwan Audio Interview: King World News

I posted this blog in my Tuesday column, but Eric slid this audio link into my in-box in the wee hours of this morning. His covering e-mail said that this was Rob's "best interview ever". Of course Eric pretty much says that about everything he posts on his site. The link is here.

Tocqueville's Hathaway expects 'terrific short squeeze' in gold

Tocqueville Gold Fund manager John Hathaway told King World News yesterday that he's expecting a "terrific short squeeze" in gold and gold mining shares, as gold's fundamentals are strong and improving, even as sentiment in the gold sector has entered "the dry-heave stage".

I thank Chris Powell for writing the preamble for me...and an excerpt from the interview is posted at the KWN website. The link is here.

¤ The Funnies

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¤ The Wrap

There are no markets anymore, only interventions. - Chris Powell, GATA

The rather large volumes associated with the rallies in both gold and silver on Tuesday made me wonder just how much actual technical fund short-covering was going on. I'm sure there was some, but we'll have to wait until Friday's Commitment of Traders Report before we'll get a clearer indication of what might have happened. I'm just hoping that all the trading volume and open interest data was reported in a timely manner.

The preliminary open interest number for gold saw a decent increase, but I was happy to see virtually no change at all in silver. I'll see what the final numbers show later this morning but, as always, it's hard to draw any definite conclusions from these daily CME reports. Only the COT data is definitive.

In overnight trading, gold had a slightly positive bias during Far East activity...and popped a few more dollars going into the London open. As of 5:02 a.m. Eastern time, gold was about twelve bucks.

It's about the same in silver as well. The metal traded flat all through the Far East trading day during their Wednesday...and then had a tiny rally going into the London open and, as of 5:04 a.m. Eastern, silver is up about two bits.

And, despite the lack of significant price action, volumes are already pretty decent.

The dollar index gained and lost about 20 basis points overnight...and is basically unchanged during the first two hours of London trading.

As John Hathaway pointed out in the KWN blog further up, he's expecting a short squeeze in the metals and their associated shares. From his lips, to God's ears!

But, as Ted Butler has pointed out on numerous occasions, how fast and furious we rally, especially in silver, has to do with how willing the raptors...who are mega-long in both metals...are willing to sell out to the tech funds that have gone short.

At the moment it appears that the raptors are quite willing to sell to them on this rally, as the price moves have been very orderly up until now. But if these small commercial traders decide to hold off selling as silver and gold prices rise, then a short squeeze in both metals could materialize in a flash. We'll just have to wait and see how this all plays out.

Everything is pretty quiet at the moment as we wait for something of significance to happen...and when it does, it will be interesting to see how gold and silver will be allowed to respond. We can't stay this oversold forever...and it just remains to be seen how the ensuing price rally manifests itself over time...and that sequence of events is already underway, as we most likely saw the lows for this cycle at the London silver fix at noon GMT on Thursday, December 29, 2011.

That's all I have for today...and I'll see you here on Thursday.

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Jan 11, 2012 10:06AM
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