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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Sprott's PSLV Launches Bid For More Silver

"Could the Commercial traders engineer a sell-off in gold and silver at this point? You bet. Could we blast off from here? You bet."

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

As I stated in 'The Wrap' last night, the nice rally that developed in gold early in the Far East trading day, ran into the usual suspects about ten minutes before the London open...and that turned out to be the high of the day. And, like the charts I posted yesterday hinted at, the London p.m. gold fix [10:00 a.m. Eastern] was lower than the London a.m. gold fix...which was 5:30 a.m. Eastern time.

Gold closed the Tuesday session at $1,651.60 spot...up $8.80 on the day. Net volume, once you remove Monday's volume...and all the roll-overs from Tuesday...was about 111,000 contracts.

Silver's rally also got sold off about ten minutes before the London open...but it's high came about fifteen minutes after Comex trading began in New York yesterday morning...and that, as they say, was that.

Silver closed at $30.06 spot...up a whole 9 cents on the day. Net volume on Tuesday was around 28,000 contracts.

The U.S. dollar index got sold off shortly after trading began in the Far East on Tuesday morning...and by 10:25 a.m. in London the index had declined by a bit more than 65 points. That 10:25 a.m. London low is suspiciously close to the London a.m. gold fix. From there it began a smallish rally around 8:00 a.m. Eastern time...and that only lasted an hour or so before it traded sideways for the rest of the New York session. The dollar index only finished down about 35 basis points on the day.

I was surprised to see the gold stocks head south right from the open in New York yesterday morning...but apparently there was some unhappy news out of Kinross, which was down a fairly substantial amount.

And Kinross wasn't the only gold stock to get hit for a decent loss...and if you want to read all the newsy details on a daily basis, a subscription to BIG GOLD is but a pittance...and Jeff Clark keeps subscribers up to date on stuff like this. The link to the BIG GOLD home page is here.

Anyway, the gold stocks continued to sell off all day, but managed a tiny rally into the close...and the HUI only finished down 1.52%.

With some exceptions, the silver stocks were pretty much down all across the board yesterday as well...but Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index was up 0.65% on the day.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME Daily Delivery Report for Tuesday showed that only 7 gold and 12 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Thursday. In silver it was the Jefferies, Bank of Nova Scotia, JPMorgan ménage à trois again. The link to that action is here.

The GLD ETF showed a small addition on Tuesday. They added 48,605 troy ounces of gold. There were no reported changes in SLV.

The U.S Mint had a sales report to start the week off right. They sold 4,500 ounces of gold eagles...1,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 525,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date U.S. Mint sales are as follows: 90,000 ounces of gold eagles...9,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 5,122,000 silver eagles.

The Comex-approved depositories took in only 25,725 troy ounces of silver on Friday...and shipped 366,285 ounces of the stuff out the door. The link to that is here.

I must clarify a story I posted yesterday by Jeff Clark about platinum. I assumed [wrongly, as it turns out] that it was Jeff Clark from Casey Research. It was, in fact, Jeff Clark over at Stansberry Research that wrote that article...obviously two different people. One of them should change their name, as this is the second time I've made this mistake in the last six months.

Here's a chart that Washington state reader S.A. sent me yesterday. It's a little difficult to read all the fine print...but the parts you can read clearly are bad enough.

(Click on image to enlarge)

I have the usual number of stories today...and I hope you have time to read the few paragraphs of each story that I've cut and paste from each one, so you at least get the flavour of the article.

¤ Critical Reads

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Half of U.S. Households Received Government Benefits in 2010

A record-high 49% of the population lived in a household receiving some type of government benefit in the second quarter of 2010, according to Census data reported by The Wall Street Journal. Most of this group received so-called "means tested" benefits like food stamps, subsidized housing or Medicaid. Many are also benefiting from unemployment insurance spending, which has quadrupled since the downturn.

Is this statistic a watershed mark of our decline into socialism, a totally reasonable outcome from the Great Recession, or, somehow, both things at the same time?

This story was originally published in The Atlantic...and was picked up by finance.yahoo.com. I thank reader Scott Pluschau for sending it along...and the link is here.

Recovery at risk as Americans raid savings

More than four years after the United States fell into recession, many Americans have resorted to raiding their savings to get them through the stop-start economic recovery...and in an ominous sign for America's economic growth prospects, workers are paring back contributions to college funds and growing numbers are borrowing from their retirement accounts.

Some policymakers worry that a recent spike in credit card usage could mean that people, many of whom are struggling on incomes that have lagged inflation, are taking out new debt just to meet the costs of day-to-day living.

American households "have been spending recently in a way that did not seem in line with income growth. So somehow they've been doing that through perhaps additional credit card usage," Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said on Friday.

This Reuters story was posted on their website yesterday morning...and I thank Roy Stephens for his first offering of the day. The link is here.

Cupcakes confiscated by TSA

This story definitely deserves to be in a special folder in the top drawer of the "You-can't-make-this-stuff-Up" filing cabinet.

A Massachusetts woman's cupcake sparked a potential security threat when she tried to board a plane.

Rebecca Hains said she was going through security at the airport in Las Vegas when a TSA agent pulled her aside and said the cupcake frosting was "gel-like" enough to constitute a security risk.

Hains said she was able to pass through Boston's Logan International Airport security with two cupcakes, but she was stopped on the way back when she tried to return with one of them.

"We went out with two cupcakes in a jar and TSA in Boston said these look delicious, but TSA in Las Vegas thought they looked dangerous," Hains said.

This story was posted over at the kplctv.com website between Christmas and New Years...and I thank reader 'David in California' for sending it to me in the wee hours of this morning. The link is here.

Clearing houses: the next casualty of the crisis?

Clearing houses -- the plumbers of high finance -- could become the next casualties of the crisis as regulators insist that banks run their riskiest and private trades through them.

At the moment banks conduct over-the-counter trades between themselves: one to one dealings often involving multimillion-euro bets on differences in interest or other rates, the scale and complexity of which can be difficult to track.

But with the financial crisis still raging and banks, hedge funds and governments alike faced with unforeseen levels of debt, regulators are now forcing this shadowy, $600-trillion industry into the light.

The question being asked by industry insiders is whether the clearing houses, also known as central counterparties (CCPs), are any more secure.

This Reuters story, filed from London on Monday morning, is courtesy of West Virginia reader Elliot Simon...and is definitely worth the read. The link is here.

Jim Rickards: Currency love triangle

Writing for King World News, geopolitical analyst James G. Rickards argues that the U.S. dollar, the euro, and the Chinese yuan are in a dance toward devaluation, first against each other and ultimately against gold. Rickards' commentary is headlined "Currency Love Triangle" and it's posted at the KWN website.

Eric sent me this story early on Tuesday morning, but yesterday's column was already jammed full...and I didn't have room for it until today. The link is here...and it's definitely worth reading as well.

Stiglitz says European austerity plans are a 'suicide pact'

Imposing austerity measures as countries slow towards recession is a fundamentally flawed response, said Mr. Stiglitz, who won the Nobel prize in 2001 for his work on how markets work inefficiently.

"The answer, even though they see over and over again that austerity leads to collapse of the economy, the answer over and over [from politicians] is more austerity," said Mr. Stiglitz to the Asian Financial Forum, a gathering of over 2,000 finance professionals, businessmen and government officials in Hong Kong.

"It reminds me of medieval medicine," he said. "It is like blood-letting, where you took blood out of a patient because the theory was that there were bad humours.

"And very often, when you took the blood out, the patient got sicker. The response then was more blood-letting until the patient very nearly died. What is happening in Europe is a mutual suicide pact," he said.

This story was posted in The Telegraph yesterday morning...and is Roy Stephens second offering of the day. The link is here.

EU Threatens Hungary With Lawsuit Over Central Bank Law

The European Union threatened a lawsuit against Hungary for encroaching on the central bank’s independence, pressing Prime Minister Viktor Orban to resolve a dispute that halted talks on international aid for the country.

The European Commission, the EU’s regulatory arm, also started infringement proceedings against Orban’s government for political meddling with the judiciary and the data-protection authority. The commission is sending a warning letter about each of the three matters and ordering Hungary to bring its legislation into line with EU standards to avoid court cases.

“The decisions we have taken are a reflection of our determination to make sure that EU law, both in letter and in spirit, are fully respected,” commission President Jose Barroso told reporters today in Strasbourg, France. “We do not want the shadow of doubt on respect for democratic principles and values to remain over the country any longer.”

This Bloomberg story was co-filed from Budapest and Brussels yesterday...and is courtesy or Washington state reader S.A. The link is here.

Nosedive in Budapest: The Political Origins of Hungary's Economic Crisis

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán came into power on a wave of political disillusionment. But his policies have not only caused many to question his commitment to democracy, but have also steered Hungary to the brink of insolvency.

Hungary is running out of money -- and the economy is faltering badly. Rating agencies have downgraded the country's sovereign bonds to junk status, and creditors are now charging the government about 10 percent in interest on new loans. Last week, the European Commission even threatened to withhold funds in 2013, arguing that Budapest is not abiding by the deficit rules.

But the country's real problem is Viktor Orbán. The German newspaper Die Welt has called the right-wing nationalist prime minister of European Union member state Hungary, whose Fidesz Party holds a two-thirds majority in parliament, a "Puszta Putin," a reference to the plains of Hungary. A new constitution, which guarantees him a frightening amount of power, has been in effect since Jan. 1. Orbán has removed the word "Republic" from the country's official name, which is now simply "Hungary." His supporters are staunchly behind his "national revolution."

This is fascinating deep-background story on what's happening in Hungary...and you certainly won't find a story with this kind of depth anywhere on this side of the Atlantic. If you have the time, it's certainly worth the read. It's another Roy Stephens contribution...and it was posted over at the German website spiegel.de yesterday. The link is here.

Sprott's PSLV launches bid for more silver

In a company press release after the market closed yesterday, Sprott Physical Silver Trust announced a follow-on offering of trust units. This offering will close before the markets open today in New York.

I knew last week that an offering was coming, but I just didn't know the timing of it. Like you, dear reader, I'll be very interested in seeing just how much of the $1.5 billion shelf offering will get taken up...and we won't have too long to wait. I'll report on it in this space tomorrow.

The press release is posted over at the marketwire.com website...and I lifted it from a GATA release yesterday. The link is here.

Rick Rule - $100 Floor in Oil Now, Gold Strong, Juniors to Soar

Eric King sent me this Rick Rule blog yesterday evening. It's posted over at the King World News website...and it's certainly worth your time. The link is here.

At last the Financial Times notices that central banks do shady things with gold

Central banks increased the amount of gold they lent for the first time in a decade in 2011, as they used their bullion reserves to help commercial banks raise US dollars.

Although central banks hold one sixth of all the gold ever mined in their reserves, their activities in the bullion market are opaque, with not a single institution revealing its day-to-day operations. In addition to holding gold for their reserves, some central banks also trade the metal, lending it on the open market in order to obtain a yield.

Thomson Reuters GFMS, the precious metal consultancy that publishes benchmark statistics on the gold market, on Tuesday said that the quantity of gold lent by central banks had risen last year for the first time since 2000.

There's obviously been a sea change regarding gold over at the FT recently...as any discussion such as this ten year ago would have been heresy. This story is posted in the clear in this GATA release...and the link is here. It is, of course, a must read.

¤ The Funnies

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¤ The Wrap

Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly...and applying the wrong remedies. - Grouch Marx

Once the gold price got capped just before the London open yesterday morning, the rest of the day didn't amount to much, as neither gold nor silver were allowed to do anything after that. But both platinum and palladium were up two percent apiece.

The preliminary open interest number for gold on Tuesday was enormous...up over 12,000 contracts...but that would also include Monday's trading data as well. Silver's open interest was also up...but not by a huge amount. I'm hoping the final numbers will show some big reductions. But whatever those numbers are, they'll be in Friday's Commitment of Traders Report, as yesterday was the cut-off.

Friday's final gold o.i. number was up a decent amount as well...and silver's o.i. was down.

I don't have a lot to talk about in 'The Wrap' today...and even if I did, it wouldn't compare to the blockbuster information that I was able to provide in Tuesday's column. The information from 'The Wrap' in that column was probably the most important that I've ever posted.

In overnight trading, gold and silver traded all over the map within about a one percent price range...and the dollar index is all over the place as well. I don't know what to read into this, if anything...so we'll just have to wait to see how this all sorts itself out as the Wednesday trading day progresses. As of 5:07 a.m. Eastern time, both gold and silver are both basically unchanged from yesterday's close in New York.

Volume in both both metals is already pretty heavy...especially gold, so the high-frequency traders are obviously out and about...and the roll-overs out of the February gold contract are well underway. Next week we have options expiry...and the following week we have First Notice Day for delivery into the February gold contract. The next delivery month for silver is March.

At the moment we're still wandering around in no-man's land as far as price direction is concerned. Silver is still well below its 50-day moving average...and gold's attempt to break above that same moving average yesterday got stopped in its tracks.

Could the Commercial traders engineer a sell-off in gold and silver at this point? You bet. Could we blast off from here? You bet. And how it all turns out in the short term is a big unknown but, for the moment, 'da boyz' appear to have everything under control. How long this lasts still remains to be seen...but we may have to wait until after January 31st to find out.

See you tomorrow.

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