AUMN: What Changed?
in response to
by
posted on
Feb 03, 2012 08:27AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
What is clearly changing is the "psychology" surrounding AUMN (and others like McEwen Mining--MUX--formerly US Gold/Minera). A simple analogy: "Is the glass half-empty or half-full?"The level in the glass is the same but how it is viewed is entirely different.
Today, Golden Minerals is not suddenly worth twice the value that the company was worth on Dec. 31, 2011, yet the stock of AUMN has nearly doubled. Investors are suddenly seeing the merit of this tremendously-undervalued company as "success breeds success." The turnaround of the stock draws the interest and attention of prospective buyers who ignored AUMN 35-45 days ago. This is the psychological change that has occurred and I have always felt that the "psychology" of a stock (positive or negative) is often the most important factor driving the share price--more so than fundamental or technical analysis.
So, what suddenly triggered this catalyst? Well, some credit naturally goes to the rally in gold/silver. More importantly however, the shorts are now realizing the "fear of God" in their extended stay and are scrambling to cover. So, the combination of short-covering and fresh share buying has initiated combustion to the share price which may continue much much further. After all, there are 2 million more shorts to cover!
And, don't underestimate GWR's claim that "the stock could rally to $20+ in weeks." Those of us who owned the stock in early 2006 watched ECU climb 9-fold in 5 months from $.40 to $3.60) when it wasn't 1/10th the company it is today. In early 2006, market psychology for junior miners suddenly turned extremely positive as investors became enamored with the growth of in-ground resources. Many of us believe that we will see a return of that methodology this year.
Silverbull50