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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Gold Bulls Expand as Billionaire Paulson Says Buy

"Despite the happy surprise in the COT for gold yesterday, I am getting concerned about the Commercial short position in silver."

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

The gold price did approximately nothing during the Friday trading day...at least not until shortly before the equity markets opened in New York at 9:30 a.m. At that point, not-for-profit sellers took it upon themselves to knock $15 off the price going into the London p.m. gold fix at 10:00 a.m. Eastern time.

From there, the gold price recovered a bit, only to get sold down again, with the low of the day [$1,716.40 spot] coming shortly after 11:00 a.m. in New York. Then the gold price rallied a few dollars until the Comex trading session closed at 1:30 p.m...and from that point on, gold flat-lined during the electronic trading session that followed. From it's New York high to its New York low, gold got sold off about twenty-one dollars.

Gold closed at $1,723.80 spot...down five bucks on the day. Net volume was very light...around 104,000 contracts.

Silver's price path was virtually identical. Like gold, silver had a brief spike to its high of the day...$33.80 spot...at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, but got hit immediately...and then, at the same time as gold, the silver price got sold off, with the low of the day [$32.97 spot] coming sometime between 11:30 a.m. and 12:30 p.m. in New York.

The subsequent...and very tiny rally...ended at the Comex close...and silver, too, traded sideways for the rest of the session. From its New York high to its New York low, silver got sold off about 83 cents, or 2.46%. Silver closed at $33.28 spot...down 24 cents on the day. Net volume was also pretty light...around 29,000 contracts.

Here's the New York Spot Silver [Bid] chart on its own. Note the 8:30 a.m. price spike to $33.80 spot...which got smacked in a heartbeat. Gold had a similar spike at the very same moment, but not as big. It's hard to pick out the exact bottom tick...but it looks like a few minutes past high noon in New York to me.

If you examine Kitco's 24-hour chart above against this New York chart below, you can see just how much fine detail gets lost when looking at the big picture chart on its own.

The dollar index didn't do much...although it did decline 25 basis points right up until 9:30 a.m. Eastern time...and then in the space of forty minutes gained it all back...and closed unchanged from Thursday.

The sell-off in both gold and silver started about ten minutes before the dollars index's little 25 basis points rally began at 9:30 a.m...and the sell-off in both metals continued long after the 30-minute dollar index rally ended, which was just minutes after 10:00 a.m. Eastern.

It all looked a little too contrived for my liking...but as I've said on several occasions, maybe I'm looking for black bears in dark rooms that aren't there. I'll leave it up to you to draw your own conclusions...and I have more to say about this in 'The Wrap' further down.

The gold stocks opened in positive territory, but that didn't last long, as the sell off in gold that had begun just ten minutes before the equity markets opened, soon turned the metal price and their associated shares into negative territory...and that was it for the day. The stocks pretty much followed the lead of the gold price itself...and the HUI closed down 1.24%...giving up half of its Thursday gains.

The silver stocks finished mixed...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment index closed down 1.05%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME Daily Delivery Report showed that only 1 gold and 57 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Wednesday. It was the same threesome in silver as usual...Jefferies as the short/issuer...and the Bank of Nova Scotia and JPMorgan as the long/stoppers. The link to this action is here.

There were no reported changes in either GLD or SLV on Friday...and no sales report from the U.S. Mint, either.

Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Thursday, they reported receiving only 7,491 ounces of silver...and shipped 329,691 troy ounces out the door.

The Commitment of Traders Report, for positions held at the close of trading on Valentine's Day, was a bit of a surprise...and both Ted Butler and myself were trying to sort out what it really meant during our daily phone conversation yesterday.

Despite the fact that there was virtually no price movement in silver during the reporting week, the Commercial net short position rose by another 2,660 contracts, which translates into 13.3 million ounces of silver. The total Commercial net short position now sits at 186.6 million ounces of silver...up over 105 million ounces from its late December low. I was not happy to see this...and neither was Ted. He said that the small commercial traders sold another 1,600 of their long positions...and JPMorgan went short another 1,400 contracts.

JPMorgan, all by itself, now appears to hold a short position of more than 25% of the entire Comex futures market in silver.

If silver's COT numbers were a surprise...the gold numbers were a surprise in the other direction. The Commercial net short position in gold declined by a very chunky 11,664 contracts, or 1.16 million ounces. Like silver, the gold price did very little during the reporting week.

Why the dichotomy between the metals? Beats me. Off the top of his head, Ted couldn't make any sense out of it either...but maybe he'll have an answer in his weekend report, which he'll be sending out to his paying subscribers later today. If he does, I'll steal it...and post it in my next column.

Here's a chart that some kind reader sent me about a week ago. It's been posted on my desktop for so long, I've forgotten who sent it to me. The graph is self-explanatory.

I have the usual number of stories...and quite a number of them I've been saving for Saturday's column because of content or length. They're definitely worth the read, so I hope you have time to spend on them over the weekend.

¤ Critical Reads

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Volcker Said to Lobby SEC Chief Personally

Former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker met in person with U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Mary Schapiro this week to discuss the proposed ban on proprietary trading named for him, according to a person familiar with the meeting.

Volcker, 84, has been a prominent advocate for the ban, which he asserts would curb the kind of risky trading that contributed to the 2008 financial crisis.

“Proprietary trading of financial instruments -- essentially speculative in nature -- engaged in primarily for the benefit of limited groups of highly paid employees and of stockholders does not justify the taxpayer subsidy implicit in routine access to Federal Reserve credit, deposit insurance or emergency support,” Volcker wrote in a commentary submitted to regulators Feb. 13th.

This Bloomberg story was posted on their website yesterday afternoon...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for sending it along. It's certainly worth the read...and the link is here.

Jim Rogers: Don’t Pay Governments Much Attention

Investors shouldn’t pay “much attention” to what governments are doing, well-known investor Jim Rogers, CEO and Chairman of Rogers Holdings, told CNBC Friday.

“If you listen to governments, then you are not going to make a lot of money. Governments lie, distort and make mistakes,” he said.

Investors should focus on “real assets” like commodities to deal with continuing worries of another downturn, he added.

“My way of playing this is to own real assets like commodities,” he said “You now have the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve printing money. The way to protect yourself at a time like this is to own assets.”

Rogers added that he thinks silver looks more attractive than gold at the moment because of the sustained rise in the gold price.

This story was posted on the cnbc.com website yesterday...and is another contribution from Elliot Simon. The link is here.

A New Bull Market? - Doug Noland

But don’t count me bullish. I see no holes in the analysis that this is an ongoing slow train wreck – the unfolding worst-case-scenario. The European financial and economic crisis will not be resolved anytime soon (think post-Bubble Japan). Greece is an unmitigated disaster and, throughout Europe, economic structure now (in a post Credit boom backdrop) matters. I don’t see how such dissimilar economic structures (and social and political systems), say between Italy and Germany, are consistent with a common currency. LTRO only buys time. China is, as well, an accident in the making.

I look at the global backdrop and see all the makings for a major, major market top. It’s just impossible to know how far away – both in time and price – we are from such an outcome. I don’t envisage a new bull market – but instead see the same type of manic marketplace that brought us the 2010 “flash crash” and the 2011 10-day market shellacking.

Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin every Friday is a must read for me...and it should be for you as well. I thank reader U.D. for sending me yesterday's edition that's posted over at the prudentbear.com website...and the link is here.

The Collapse of Jon Corzine

On December 15, Jon Corzine (D-NJ), former CEO of the suddenly bankrupt commodities and futures brokerage firm MF Global, finished three days of testimony before the House Financial Services Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee. This followed the December 2nd decision of the House Agriculture Committee to subpoena Corzine after a request for a voluntary appearance went unanswered. Two other congressional committees subpoenaed Corzine in the next several days. To say that it is unusual for Congress to issue a subpoena to a former United States senator (and, in this case, governor) is an understatement. As an Associated Press article noted, "Congressional historians and Capitol Hill insiders can't recall another time when a former member of Congress was summoned by his former peers to testify about a matter under federal investigation."

In fact, the move was so rare that even the New York Times, Washington Post, and Politico—each of which had reported remarkably little on the eighth largest bankruptcy in our nation's history and America's biggest financial failure since Lehman Brothers—had to take notice.

The bankruptcy was caused by Corzine's decision (if I may borrow a phrase from Corzine's good friend, President Barack Obama) to fundamentally transform MF Global from a sizeable but relatively staid commodities brokerage firm into a gambling enterprise. MF, which was spun off from the British firm Man Financial in 2007, not only risked the firm's own money but then used customers' funds to plug the holes when Corzine's massive speculative purchases of European government debt went south. Fundamentally transforming something that was already working pretty well is perhaps not the best strategy for success.

Having read Roger Lowenstein's classic 2001 tome...When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management shortly after it was published, I was already well aware of this creature called Jon Corzine, as Roger did not paint a flattering picture of him, or Goldman Sachs, even back in those days.

This 3-page exposé on Corzine showed up as the feature article in the February edition of The American Spectator...and I thank Washington state reader S.A. for digging up this absolute must read on our behalf. The link is here.

Creeping Fascism, Part One: Return of the Company Town

The US government's obliteration of the Bill of Rights via the Patriot Act, the recent defense bill that allows the military to detain citizens indefinitely without trial, the health care law that forces citizens to buy insurance, and the attempted takeover of the Internet through SOPA and PIPA has gotten a lot of attention lately, and in a few rare cases has generated some effective push-back.

But according to an article in this month's Harper's Magazine (Killing the competition: How the new monopolies are destroying open markets, by Barry C. Lynn), US corporations are evolving into forms that are more threatening to their victims than anything emanating from Washington. As the author characterizes it, a new generation of monopolists are imposing their own private governments on their industries -- and not always the industries one would expect. This long, detailed article should be read by anyone with a desire to understand how the US is evolving.

This excellent piece by John Rubino was posted over at the safehaven.com website on Thursday...and is well worth the read. I thank Swiss reader B.G. for bringing it to my attention...and the link is here.

Washington's Insouciance Has No Rival: Paul Craig Roberts

Is Obama a hypocrite or merely insouciant? Or is he an idiot?

According to news reports Obama’s White House meeting on Valentine’s day with China’s Vice President, Xi Jinping, provided an opportunity for Obama to raise “a sensitive human rights issue with the Chinese leader-in-waiting.” The brave and forthright Obama didn’t let etiquette or decorum get in his way. Afterwards, Obama declared that Washington would “continue to emphasize what we believe is the importance of realizing the aspirations and rights of all people.”

Think about that for a minute. Washington is now in the second decade of murdering Muslim men, women, and children in six countries. Washington is so concerned with human rights that it drops bombs on schools, hospitals, weddings and funerals, all in order to uphold the human rights of Muslim people. You see, bombing liberates Muslim women from having to wear the burka and from male domination.

One hundred thousand, or one million, dead Iraqis, four million displaced Iraqis, a country with destroyed infrastructure, and entire cities, such as Fallujah, bombed and burnt with white phosphorus into cinders is the proper way to show concern for human rights.

As usual, Paul is right on the money. This piece was posted on the paulcraigroberts.org website on February 15th...and I thank reader 'James R' in Texas for sending it. It's definitely worth the read...and the link is here.

Meteorological Office in the Media: 29 January 2012

Last Saturday I posted a story out of London's Daily Mail that was written by columnist David Rose. It was headlined "Forget global warming - it's Cycle 25 we need to worry about (and if NASA scientists are right the Thames will be freezing over again)" - repeats what is becoming a common misconception in the tabloid press: that a drop in solar activity is about to cause a 'mini ice age'.

In the piece, Rose so badly misrepresents the Met Office's work that they have taken the unusual step of responding to it on their blog, describing his article as containing "numerous errors in the reporting of published peer reviewed science undertaken by the Met Office Hadley Centre."

The link to their January 29th rebuttal is posted at their website metofficenews.wordpress.com...and the link is here. It's worth the read...and I thank reader J. Parker in Houston, Texas for bringing this item to my attention.

The Truth Peddlers: Smoke and Mirrors in the Climate Debate

A new book by an executive at a major German power utility claims we aren't facing a climate catastrophe and rejects current mainstream ideas on global warming. Both climate change skeptics and those who warn of global warming profit from such controversies -- so who should we believe?

Science can be so easy -- at least when it is stripped of its nuances. Fritz Vahrenholt and his colleague, geologist Sebastian Lüning, say the world isn't facing a climate catastrophe. The two are peddling precisely the kind of theory that generates publicity and allows both sides of the debate to profit. But it also leaves people wondering who they should believe.

The authors both work for German electric utility company RWE, where Vahrenholt is an executive. In their book "Die Kalte Sonne" ("The Cold Sun"), they claim that important research about climate change has been kept under wraps and that cries of an impending climate catastrophe are misleading. Their book arrived in book stores in Germany last week, with considerable media attention.

This climate story was posted over at the German website spiegel.de on Thursday...and I thank Roy Stephens for sending it along. It's a short read that's worth your while...and the link is here.

Vatican told to pay taxes as Italy tackles budget crisis

After several years of scandal in which the Catholic Church has faced allegations of financial impropriety, pedophile priests and rumours of plots to kill the Pope, the Vatican is now facing a new €600m-a-year tax bill as Rome seeks to head off European Commission censure over controversial property tax breaks enjoyed by the Church.

As the EC heads closer to officially condemning the fiscal perks enjoyed by the Catholic Church and introduced by the Berlusconi administration, Prime Minister Mario Monti has written to the Competition Commissioner, Joaquin Almunia, saying that the Vatican will resume property tax, or Ici, payments.

This story was posted over at the independent.co.uk website yesterday...and I thank Australian reader Wesley Legrand for sharing it with us. The link is here.

Iceland's Viking Victory: Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Congratulations to Iceland.

Fitch has upgraded the country to investment grade BBB – with stable outlook, expecting government debt to peak at 100pc of GDP.

The OECD's latest forecast said growth will be 2.4pc this year, after 2.9pc in 2011.

Unemployment will fall from 7pc last year to 6.1pc this year and then 5.3pc in 2013.

The current account deficit was 11.2pc in 2010. It will shrink to 3.4pc this year, and will be almost disappear next year.

This story appeared in The Telegraph yesterday...and is worth skimming. I thank Roy Stephens for sending it along...and the link is here.

Big Bucks Attract High School Grads To Mining

Don Kotschevar teaches high school in the small town of Mullan in north Idaho's remote Silver Valley. He is the assistant principal, basketball coach and shop teacher. Lately, Kotschevar has been questioning his own career path. He watches his students parlay the skills he teaches them in this industrial mechanics class into lucrative mining jobs.

"Some of them, in the first six, eight months, their salaries absolutely crush mine," Kotschevar says. Entry-level mine jobs can pay $50,000 a year. Kotschevar has been thinking he could get a similar offer from local mine bosses.

"You know, I've got nine more years, so I can get my retirement here, and then when I retire I'll probably go to see if they'll hire me. Hopefully I won't be too old," he says. "I've been in teaching — I need to have a retirement plan."

This story was posted on the National Public Radio website yesterday...and is another offering from West Virginia reader Elliot Simon. The link is here.

Gold Bulls Expand as Billionaire Paulson Says Buy

Gold traders are getting more bullish after billionaire hedge-fund manager John Paulson told investors it’s time to buy the metal as protection against inflation caused by government spending.

Twelve of 22 surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to gain next week and five were neutral. Paulson & Co. is already the biggest investor in the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest exchange- traded product backed by bullion, with a stake valued at $2.9 billion, a Securities and Exchange Commission filing Feb. 14 showed. Investors have 2,389.7 metric tons in ETPs, within 0.2 percent of the record reached in December and more than all but four central banks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

This Bloomberg story from yesterday was sent to me by Washington state reader S.A...and the link is here.

The above Bloomberg story prompted the following outburst over at zerohedge.com yesterday..."We wish we had good news, but we are not going to lie: This is the worst possible news for any gold bull out there." Wesley Legrand sent me that story...and the link is here.

John Williams: $8,890 Gold, $517 Silver & Hyperinflation Update

Despite the September 5, 2011 historic-high gold price of $1,895.00 per troy ounce, and despite the multi-decade-high silver price of $48.70 per troy ounce, gold and silver prices have yet to re-hit their 1980 historic levels, adjusted for inflation. The earlier all-time high of $850.00 of January 21, 1980 would be $2,476 per troy ounce, based on January 2012 CPI-U-adjusted dollars, $8,890 per troy ounce based on SGS-Alternate-CPI-adjusted dollars.

In like manner, the all-time high price for silver in January 1980 of $49.45 per troy ounce still has not been hit since 1980, including in terms of inflation-adjusted dollars. Based on January 2012 CPI-U inflation, the 1980 silver price peak would be $144 per troy ounce...and would be $517 per troy ounce in terms of SGS-Alternate-CPI-adjusted dollars.

John knows his stuff...and he's absolutely right about this. Silver is dirt cheap at today's price. This must read blog is posted over at the King World News website...and the link is here.

Colorado looking at gold, silver currency

Worried that the U.S. dollar may not be good as gold, some Colorado lawmakers are pushing a bill to legalize gold and silver coins as usable currency.

"There are lots of concerns about the U.S. monetary system," said the bill's sponsor, Republican Sen. Kent Lambert of Colorado Springs. "Individuals and states ought to be increasing their gold reserves. There's no way to maintain the value of anything if countries start a race to the bottom by inflating their currency to get out of debt."

Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul is among those who believe the nation should return to the gold standard, in which paper currency is guaranteed by precious metal.

"I am not a Ron Paul kind of guy," Lambert said. "But that's something I think is very legitimate that he brought up."

This story was posted in the Daily Herald out of Provo, Utah yesterday...and I thank reader Ken Metcalfe for sending it along. The link is here.

Investor Alert - The Enduring Popularity of Gold

The World Gold Council (WGC) reaffirmed the power of the Love Trade in its 2011 Gold Demand Trends report released this week. Gold demand grew 0.4 percent in 2011 despite a 28 percent year-over-year increase in bullion’s average price.

After flirting with the top spot for some time, China emerged as the world’s largest gold market for jewelry and investment during the fourth quarter of 2011 as demand in India weakened. This is the first time China’s demand outpaced India’s in 11 quarters. However, India did retain the gold demand crown for the entire year, purchasing 933 tons compared to China’s demand of 770 tons.

I always say the trend is your friend, and I believe China’s increasing demand for gold is one trend that is just getting started. Although gold imports from Hong Kong were cut in half in December, HSBC Global Research reports that overall gold imports from Hong Kong were 10 times the historical average from January through November 2011. HSBC expects a continued rise in Chinese incomes will keep demand at a robust pace. The WGC sees domestic demand for gold jewelry and investment driving 20 percent growth in Chinese gold demand during 2012.

This rather long piece [with some excellent charts] was posted by my friend Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer over at U.S. Global Investors. It's worth reading if you have the time...and it's Elliot Simon's final offering in today's column. The link is here.

Debt derivatives and gold will explode shortly, von Greyerz tells King World News

Fund manager Egon von Greyerz, was interviewed by King World News yesterday...and he expects debt derivatives to start exploding across Europe and the United States soon, and gold to end its consolidation phase and to start moving up again as soon as next week.

Let's hope he's right. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the KWN website...and the link is here.

¤ The Funnies

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¤ The Wrap

I think that the current financial system, as we know it, will be totally destroyed, probably sooner rather than later. The next system will require gold backing to have any legitimacy. This has happened many times in history. - John Embry, Sprott Asset Management

I have a couple of 'blasts from the past' for you today. The first one popped into my head earlier this week. If any song is instantly identifiable with Paris in particular...and France in general...it's this one. Written in 1951 by French composer and lyricist, Hubert Giraud, it's instantly recognizable by anyone pushing 60...or older. I have two youtube.com versions for you. Listen to both and then decide which one you like the best. Arrangement #1 is here...and #2 is here.

My second'blast from the past' was written by the same French composer in 1970. He conceived the song in his car waiting out a Parisian traffic jam...and completed its demo within a few days. It went on to be a world-wide hit in 1971/72. My jaw hit the floor when I made this discovery, because I used to play the 45 rpm recording of this on AM radio station CHAR in Alert, N.W.T. back in 1972/73! I hope you'll be amazed as well...and the link to the group that made it a hit is here.

I must admit that I wasn't overly surprised atFriday's price action. The 8:30 a.m. Eastern time pop in both gold and silver was indicative of how gold and silver prices want to behave if given a free market to roam in...and that certainly wasn't the case yesterday. Shortly before the equity markets opened, the selling pressure was on...and 'da boyz' took both metals lower on the day.

Here's Nick Laird's "IntradayAverage Gold Price Movements" chart that he made up at my request a couple of years back. Note that the absolute high price tick of the day on this chart occurs at precisely 9:30 a.m. Eastern time...the time when the equity markets open in New York. The four years worth of data in this chart lays bare the primary trend for all to see. This ain't rocket science, dear reader...it's price management.

(Click on image to enlarge)

So the 9:20 a.m. price take-down in gold and silver yesterdaywas just 'da boyz' doing what they have always done.

Despite the happy surprise in the COT for gold yesterday, I am getting concerned about the Commercial short position in silver. True, we are nowhere near the extreme short positions of the past, but that doesn't negate the possibility that JPMorgan et al will pull the lever and ring the cash register sometime during the days or weeks ahead.

Silver analyst Ted Butler pointed out last weekendthat we could still have major rallies in both metals based on the current COT structure...and he's absolutely right about that as well.

But which scenario is going to play outin the short, medium, or long term? Beats me. However, any pull-back in prices is just going to be another buying opportunity in my eyes.

Before signing off on today's column, I continue to point out that there's still timeto either re-adjust your portfolio, or get fully invested in the continuing major up-leg of this bull market in both silver and gold...and I respectfully suggest that you take a trial subscription to either Casey Research's International Speculator [junior gold and silver exploration companies], or BIG GOLD [large producers], with all our best [and current] recommendations...as well as the archives. A subscription to the International Speculator also includes a free subscription to BIG GOLD as well. And don't forget that our 90-day guarantee of satisfaction is in effect for both publications.

That's it for the day and the week. Monday is President's Day in the U.S.A. I'm not sure if the precious metals markets will be open or not...and IF I do have a column on Tuesday, it won't be in your mail-box early in the morning, as I see no reason to get sweet, young, tender Juli out of bed early on a holiday...so she can post it whenever she gets up. And if nothing shows up on Tuesday, then you'll know the reason.

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