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Message: Ed Steer this morning

John Embry: The Public Won't Notice Gold Again Until Another Record High is Set

"I was also happy to see that both silver and the HUI index broke above their respective 200-day moving averages yesterday."

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

Gold didn't do a lot in Far East trading...and it briefly touched the $1,780 spot level about two hours after the London open...but fell back to unchanged from Wednesday's New York close by 1:00 p.m. GMT, which was 20 minutes before Comex trading began yesterday morning.

From about 8:05 to 8:55 a.m. Eastern, the gold price rose about nine bucks...and then got sold off about eleven bucks by 9:45 a.m....which was probably an early London p.m. gold fix.

The subsequent rally lasted until a few minutes before 11:00 a.m. Eastern time...which was also minutes before the 4:00 p.m. London close. From there, the gold price basically traded sideways until 2:40 p.m. in the New York Access Market. Then a not-for-profit seller came along and peeled about nine dollars off the price in minutes. From that short, sharp sell off...the gold price recovered a few dollars into the close of electronic trading at 5:15 p.m.

The high tick of the day...$1,789.10 spot...came about 12:45 p.m. during the New York lunch hour. The gold price closed at $1,780.10 spot...up $4.30 on the day. Net volume was in the 139,000 contract range, which is still a pretty chunky number, but down substantially from Tuesday and Wednesday's volume figures.

Silver didn't do much either in the early going...and was only up about a dime by the time that London opened. Then the price popped above the $34.50 mark and flat-lined until 8:05 a.m. New York time.

From there, silver was pretty much off to the races...except for the slight dip at 9:45 a.m....the same time as gold. Silver's rally came to an end at 2:45 p.m. Eastern time in electronic trading, as the same thoughtful seller that took about nine bucks off the gold price, took the time sell silver off about two bits as well. From that sell off, silver traded flat into the close of electronic trading at 5:15 p.m. in New York.

Silver closed at $35.37 spot...up $1.11 on the day. Gross volume on Thursday [102,616 contracts] was even higher that it was on Wednesday...and net volume was a very large 43,000 contracts.

Just as a point of interest...the not-for-profit seller that showed up in gold and silver at 2:45 p.m on Wednesday, did not put in an appearance in the platinum and palladium markets yesterday. The other thing worth noting is that, despite the dollar antics I mention in the next paragraph, both platinum and palladium did absolutely nothing yesterday...and both closed down a hair on the day.

The dollar index opened around 79.20 on Wednesday night and within a few hours was rolling over and heading south at a goodly clip. Then the dollar rallied 30 basis points over a 5-hour period between 9:30 a.m. in London...and 9:40 a.m. in New York, with the top of that rally coinciding almost exactly with the low in gold and silver prices in New York.

From that point, the dollar index resumed its plunge...hitting its nadir at 4:30 p.m. Eastern time. By the time the market closed, the dollar index had shed about 55 basis points, closing around 78.65.

Well, dear reader, except around 9:30 a.m. Eastern time, if you can find any solid co-relation between the moves in the dollar index and the precious metals yesterday, I'd love to hear from you.

The low in the gold stocks came fifteen minutes after the markets opened yesterday morning, which corresponded exactly with the lows of the day in both metals. By 11:30 a.m...all the gains were in for the day...and the appearance of the not-for-profit seller in both metals at 2:45 p.m. is also very obvious on this chart. The HUI finished up only 0.64% on the day when all was said and done.

Considering the big move in silver, most of the large cap silver stocks didn't do all that well...and a lot of the juniors certainly out-performed their larger cousins. Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index only gained 1.52%...which was barely higher than its Wednesday gain when silver actually close down 9 cents on the day.

(Click on image to enlarge)

It was another quiet Daily Delivery Report from the CME yesterday, as only 95 gold contracts were posted for delivery...along with 70 copper contracts...and zero silver contracts. This was not really a big surprise, as February is not a traditional delivery month for either gold or silver, and we're only days away from month end...and most contracts were delivered early in the month

But the drama in silver continues unabated...and the pressure got ramped up a bit more with Thursday's preliminary volume report from the CME. Another 50 silver contracts were added to the February delivery month, bringing the number of silver contracts still open in February up to 175 in total.

175 contracts is 875,000 troy ounce of silver. Where is the short/issuer [Jefferies?] going to get it from on such short notice...and how much will it cost them? Or maybe they already have it...and are just posting the delivery notice now. There are only three business days left to do whatever they're going to do...and you can bet your last nickel that contracts added this late in the month are for physical delivery of the metal itself.

As I said yesterday...stay tuned for further details.

The GLD ETF reported that an authorized participant added 38,871 troy ounces of gold yesterday...and over at the SLV ETF a very large 1,991,784 ounce of silver was deposited. That's one full day of world silver production...and after yesterday's big price gain, I'm sure that this particular silver ETF is probably owed even more.

The U.S. Mint had no sales report.

Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Wednesday, they reported taking in 213,413 ounces of silver...and shipped 426,072 ounce out the door. The link to that action is here.

I'm delighted to report that I don't have all that many stories for you today...and I hope I've posted some that you'll find of interest.

¤ Critical Reads

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Following Abysmal 2011, Only 10% Of Hedge Funds Are Outperforming The S&P In 2012

Too bad not every hedge fund can be long Apple (even if as Goldman points out, they sure are trying - "One out of five hedge funds has AAPL among its ten largest long positions" - a truly stunning observation and one which means that if Apple, which is priced to absolute perfection, has even one hiccup, we would see an absolutely epic bloodbath in the market).

Because if 2011 was a horrible year for hedge funds which closed the year well below, or -10%, their respective benchmark - the S&P (unchanged for the year), the last thing hedge fund LPs can afford is another year in which they pay 2 and 20 to generate a return lower than the S&P. Yet to their horror, this is precisely what is happening.

The story that was posted over at the zerohedge.com website yesterday was brought to my attention by readers U.D...and the link is here.

Gasoline Prices Are Not Rising, the Dollar Is Falling

Panic is in the air as gasoline prices move above $4.00 per gallon. Politicians and pundits are rounding up the usual suspects, looking for someone or something to blame for this latest outrage to middle class family budgets. In a rare display of bipartisanship, President Obama and Speaker of the House John Boehner are both wringing their hands over the prospect of seeing their newly extended Social Security tax cut gobbled up by rising gasoline costs.

Unfortunately, the talking heads that are trying to explain the reasons for high oil prices are missing one tiny detail. Oil prices aren’t high right now. In fact, they are unusually low. Gasoline prices would have to rise by another $0.65 to $0.75 per gallon from where they are now just to be “normal”. And, because gasoline prices are low right now, it is very likely that they are going to go up more—perhaps a lot more.

At this point, we can be certain that, unless gold prices come down, gasoline prices are going to go up—by a lot. And, because the dollar is currently a floating, undefined, fiat currency, there is no inherent limit to how far the price of gold in dollars can rise, and therefore no ultimate ceiling on gasoline prices.

Ah, the voice of sanity and reason! This 2-page article showed up over at the forbes.com website on Wednesday...and I thank Washington state reader S.A. for sharing it with us. The link is here.

Markets at a Glance: Unintended Consequences

This months Market at a Glance commentary from Eric Sprott and David Baker over at Sprott Asset Management was posted on their website late yesterday.

It's always a must read...and February's offering certainly falls into that category as well. The first paragraph reads as follows...

"2012 is proving to be the ‘Year of the Central Bank’. It is an exciting celebration of all the wonderful maneuvers central banks can employ to keep the system from falling apart. Western central banks have gone into complete overdrive since last November, convening, colluding and printing their way out of the mess that is the Eurozone. The scale and frequency of their maneuvering seems to increase with every passing week, and speaks to the desperate fragility that continues to define much of the financial system today."

As I said, this is a must read. It's posted over at the sprott.com website...and the link is here.

EU creditor countries poised to micromanage Greece

European creditor countries are demanding 38 specific changes in Greek tax, spending, and wage policies by the end of this month and have laid out extra reforms that amount to micromanaging the country's government for two years, according to documents obtained by the Financial Times.

The reforms, spelt out in three memoranda of a combined 90 pages, are the price that Greece has agreed to pay to obtain a E130 billion second bail-out and avoid a sovereign default that the government feared would throw Greek society into turmoil.

They range from the sweeping -- overhauling judicial procedures, centralising health insurance, completing an accurate land registry -- to the mundane -- buying a new computer system for tax collectors, changing the way drugs are prescribed, and setting minimum crude oil stocks.

This story was printed in the Financial Times of London yesterday...and is posted in the clear in this GATA release. It's well worth reading...and the link is here.

Growing Air of Concern in Greece Over New Bailout

Even as the European Union signed off Tuesday on a sweeping new arrangement to help avert a Greek default and stabilize the euro, many people here on the streets saw no end to their country’s woes.

“They don’t want to kill us but keep us down on our knees so we can keep paying them indefinitely,” said Eva Kyriadou, 55, as she stood in a square in downtown Athens where the smell of tear gas and the smashed facades from last week’s violent riots still lingered.

Indeed, the deal was reached amid a growing air of stalemate and concern. Greece’s foreign lenders expressed doubts that the new austerity measures the Greek Parliament passed last week — including a 22 percent cut to the private-sector benchmark minimum wage — would actually be carried out, at least before early national elections as soon as April.

This story appeared in The New York Times on Tuesday...and is Roy Stephens first offering of the day. The link is here.

German showdown with IMF looms as Bundestag blocks rescue funds

Germany's ruling parties are to introduce a resolution in parliament blocking any further boost to the EU’s bail-out machinery, vastly complicating Greece’s rescue package and risking a major clash with the International Monetary Fund.

“European solidarity is not an end in itself and should not be a one-way street. Germany’s engagement has reached it limits,” said the text, drafted by Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats and Free Democrat (FDP) allies.

“Germany itself faces strict austerity to comply with the national debt brake,” said the declaration, which will go to the Bundestag next week. Lawmakers said there is no scope to boost the EU’s “firewall” to €750bn, either by increasing the new European Stability Mechanism (ESM) or by running it together with the old bail-out fund (EFSF).

This Ambrose Evans-Pritchard offering showed up very late last night in The Telegraph. I thank Roy Stephens for sending it...and it's well worth skimming. The link is here.

Argentine advice for Greece: ‘Default Now!’

Here in Argentina, when we watch the terrible things that are happening today in Greece, we can only exclaim, “Hey!! That’s exactly what happened in Argentina in 2001 and 2002…!”

­A decade ago, Argentina too went through a systemic Sovereign Public Debt collapse resulting in social turmoil, worker hardship, rioting and street fights with the police.

Some months before Argentina exploded, then-President Fernando de la Rúa – forced to resign at the height of the 2001 crisis – had called back as finance minister the notorious pro-banker, Trilateral Commission member and Rockefeller/Soros/Rhodes protégée Domingo Cavallo.

Cavallo was the gruesome architect of Argentina’s political and economic capitulation to the US and UK when he was President Carlos Menem’s foreign minister and economy minister in the ’90s.

This absolute must read article showed up on the Russia Today website yesterday evening...and is Roy Stephens third offering in a row. The link is here.

The World from Berlin: 'Iranian Regime Will Make No Concessions'

Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency had been hoping to be allowed access to a suspicious facility southeast of Tehran, but the visit was pronounced a failure. German editorialists nevertheless argue that, despite Iranian obstinancy, negotiations remain the best option available.

This story was posted over at the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and is courtesy of Roy Stephens once again. The link is here.

Asia Times: Moscow stirs itself on Syria

With the "Friends of Syria" (FOS) grouping sponsored by the Western powers and their Arab allies scheduled to hold its first meeting in Tunis on Friday, Russian diplomacy has shifted gear into a proactive mode. The Kremlin was a beehive of diplomatic activity on Wednesday.

The venue of the birthplace of the "Arab Spring" for the FOS to gather might, prima facie, give an impression that the name of the game is high-flown rhetoric and nothing more.

But that is not how Moscow views the developing paradigm. It estimates that Tunis with its Mediterranean climate and languid look has been carefully chosen as a deceptive location for the West to launch a concerted assault on the citadel of President Bashar al-Assad and to legitimize it in the world opinion. Moscow senses that the final assault on Syria by the United States may not far off, although the US propaganda makes it out to be that the Barack Obama administration is on the horns of a dilemma, torn apart by an existential angst.

This is a must read for students of the new "Great Game". The essay was posted over at the Asia Times this morning...and is Roy Stephens final offering of the day. The link is here.

Goldline agrees to refund up to $4.5 million to former customers

Santa Monica, Calif., precious metals dealer Goldline International Inc., one of the nation's largest gold retailers, has resolved a criminal prosecution by agreeing to refund as much as $4.5 million to former customers.

Goldline agreed to an injunction that requires the company to "change its unfair sales practices" and to disclose price markups in recorded telephone conversations with customers, said Adam Radinsky, head of the Santa Monica city attorney's consumer protection unit.

The Santa Monica city attorney in November filed a 19-count criminal complaint against Goldline, accusing the company of running a "bait and switch" operation in which customers seeking to invest in gold bullion were instead sold gold coins that were marked up more than 50 percent. Six current and former employees were also charged.

This L.A. Times story was posted over at the syracuse.com website yesterday...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for bringing it to our attention. The link to this must read story is here.

Crime lab looks at safe found in Livingston, Louisiana

Ascension Parish sheriff's officials reported that State Police Crime Laboratory experts were going over a damaged safe looking for evidence, but otherwise revealed no new information Wednesday about the Gonzales robbery-killings that left two dead and one critically injured.

Deputies found three people Saturday with their throats slashed in a residence at 39122 Babin Road, according to initial reports.

The apparent motive, Bacala said, was a safe containing a collection of gold coins valued at an estimated $500,000, which was taken from the home. None of the other valuables in the house were missing, he said.

Livingston is just south of Baton Rouge...and I thank reader 'Tom in Baton Rouge' for sending it along. It was posted over at theadvocate.com website yesterday...and the link is here.

Leniency sought in sentencing of Liberty Dollar founder

It has been almost a year since a federal court jury in North Carolina convicted Liberty Dollar founder Bernard von Not Haus of what seems to be considered a sort of counterfeiting for issuing his own gold and silver coins and advocating their use as currency. The U.S. attorney prosecuting von Not Haus called him a "terrorist." Hyperbolic as that was, federal authorities lately are hurling that term at anyone who contemplates gold's use as currency.

GATA considered von Not Haus' conviction mistaken as a matter of law and on May 31 last year filed a brief with the court seeking reconsideration.

For whatever reason, the judge, Richard L. Voorhees, has not yet scheduled sentencing for von Not Haus, which may indicate that the judge is seriously considering the issues GATA sought to raise.

The link to this must read GATA release is here.

Pierre Lassonde and Richard Russell: Epic Gold Buying and Inflation

This short blog was posted over at the King World News website late last night. It's certainly worth the read...and the link is here.

Jim Sinclair: Gold will fly so much it will become untradeable for ordinary investors

Gold soon will be moving as much as $400 in a day and will become untradeable by ordinary investors, gold trader and mining entrepreneur Jim Sinclair told King World News yesterday. Sinclair adds that gold will become "the last great bubble" but not break because gold will be incorporated into a new commodity-based monetary system.

I thank Chris Powell for wordsmithing the above introduction...and the link to the KWN blog is here.

Peter Brimelow: Great Day for Gold...and the gold bugs think more is to come

Gold closed at a new high for the year Wednesday, as measured by the CME April gold contract — up $12.80 at $1,771.30. By the stock-market close, the metal was over $8 higher, up 1.1% on the day.

The NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index closed up 1.7% at 545.78, just below Feb. 2’s 551.24 high but, perhaps more importantly, breaking the downtrend involving that high.

Gold on the basis of the CME close has risen nearly 15% since the Dec. 29 low, and more than 3% since Friday.

This short marketwatch.com article was posted on their website yesterday morning. It's well worth the read...and I thank reader Elliot Simon for sending it along. The link is here.

Public won't notice gold until another record high, Embry tells KWN

Sprott Asset Management's John Embry told King World News yesterday that gold's rise this month would have been greater except for the continuing efforts to suppress it. He is confident that more money printing is inevitable, and thus higher prices for gold, but he doesn't think the public will start paying attention until gold makes another record high.

An excerpt from the interview is posted at the KWN Internet site, here...and it's definitely worth reading.

¤ The Funnies

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¤ The Wrap

Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens. - Jimi Hendrix

It was wonderful to see silver perform as well as it did...but I was disappointed in gold. As I've mentioned every day this week, both metals are running into fierce resistance from the bullion banks as the rallies progress.

Volumes are enormous, a characteristic not normally found in a short covering rally...and nothing I've seen so far this week indicates there's been much of that going on.

I was also happy to see that both silver and the HUI index broke above their respective 200-day moving averages yesterday...and I'm hoping that there's more to come...but always on the lookout for 'in you ear'.

Today we get the Commitment of Traders Report for positions held at the close of trading on Tuesday, February 21st. That was a decent rally day for both gold and silver...and Ted Butler and myself are expecting more bad news with today's report. I don't even want to think about what the report would show with Wednesday's and Thursday's trading data included.

As I said yesterday, we can certainly get a lot more overbought than we are now...but I must admit that I'm getting nervous, as the Commercial traders can end this party at any moment if they decide that the time is right. We'll have to see how this all shakes out in the days and weeks ahead.

I'm also following the silver delivery situation with great interest. There are still those 175 contracts open for February...and next week we get the delivery notices for the March contract in silver. They'll be posted on the CME's website on Tuesday night Eastern time. There is nothing normal about what's currently going on in the silver market.

Here's a little eye candy for you. It's the 3-year silver chart...and based on what I see here, where we go price-wise is anyone's guess. But I'm still "all in".

(Click on image to enlarge)

In overnight trading, not much happened during the Far East session on their Friday...but moments after London opened, a smallish rally developed in both metals and it appeared that both ran into selling pressure about 9:30 a.m. local time. As of 5:12 a.m. Eastern, gold is back down to unchanged from Thursday's close...and silver is up about 20 cents. Volumes, which had been on the lighter side right up until the London open, have now picked up quite a bit in both metals. The dollar index didn't do much all night, but headed a bit lower shortly after London opened...and is down about 25 basis points as I hit the 'send' button. It's entirely possible that these smallish rallies are related to this decline in the dollar index...but if that's the case, then why is this dollar move not having an equal effect on platinum or palladium prices at the moment? Just asking. We'll have to see how this unfolds as Friday trading progresses in London and New York.

There's still time to either re-adjust your portfolio, or get fully invested in the continuing major up-leg of this bull market in both silver and gold...and I respectfully suggest that you take a trial subscription to either Casey Research's International Speculator [junior gold and silver exploration companies], or BIG GOLD [large producers], with all our best [and current] recommendations...as well as the archives. A subscription to the International Speculator also includes a free subscription to BIG GOLD as well. And don't forget that our 90-day guarantee of satisfaction is in effect for both publications.

I hope you have a great weekend...and I'll see you here on Saturday sometime.

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