So, What's An Eager Gold Investor To Do?
Obviously, you don't
have to get your physical silver and gold by investing in GORO.
Instead, you could just take your dividends from a gold and/or silver producer, then go out and buy precious metals yourself.
What GORO's new program does is make this whole process a lot simpler for those of its shareholders who prefer the real thing.
So of course that begs the question: Should you buy into Gold Resource Corporation?
Patient and early shareholders of GORO have been well rewarded with a tenfold gain since 2006.
But at today's share price of $23, GORO's trading at a P/E of 22.6 - a bit rich for my taste.
And despite the 2.5% dividend, which is generous by gold producer standards, you'd need to own $68,000 worth of GORO stock to receive one gold ounce annually at today's gold price.
That places Gold Resource out of reach for many.
A Golden Alternative
Investors could look instead at the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca:
GDX), which mimics the Gold Bugs Index (NYSE:
HUI). It is trading at a P/E of 13, though offering a negligible yield of 0.27%.
This kind of valuation is near historical lows, making precious metals producers (as a group) a very compelling investment right now.
That's not to say they can't get cheaper.
But consider this: The very first time GDX traded at today's prices was back in October 2007.
At the time gold was trading under $800 and silver under $15.
Both metals are at
double those levels right now. Yet the gold and silver producers are still trading at October 2007 prices.
This can't last.
Investor sentiment toward gold is at exceptionally low levels versus the average of the past four years.
But real interest rates (interest you can earn safely minus inflation) are near -3%. That has historically kept gold in a bull market.
On a seasonal basis, we're also likely at the "trough," where gold stocks tend to bottom out before heading higher.
How much higher?
Well, if we look at the data from the past decade since gold started its secular bull run, the HUI has
averaged 15% gains from mid-March until the end of May.
And gold stocks are at an extreme "undervalued' level right now: another great contrarian signal.
The past several times we've had this kind of setup, gold stocks have absolutely soared, with the HUI Index shooting up over 100% in the ensuing twelve months.
The current price range for GDX - $45 to $50 - has previously acted as both resistance and support.
In my view, the inflection point is close at hand. The odds are in favor of gold stock investors.
My advice: Seriously consider going long gold stocks, which you can easily do by adding
GDX.With such great odds, you could well double your money by this time next year.
In the meantime, keep your eye out for companies that follow GORO's lead and begin to offer dividends payable in gold and silver.
Even though this development has drawn little fanfare in the press, I believe it's a watershed moment in precious metals investing.