Re: AUMN: TD Update and commentary on 5/4/12 PR
in response to
by
posted on
May 07, 2012 06:13PM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Thanks for the comments and TD bank update Silverbull. I have a few thoughts of my own below.
The news release was only very slightly negative in my view as expressed by Dan Earle from TD bank in his note posted by Silverbull but I suspected those who are at the end of their rope would react in a nasty fashion, such is the world today. It was a decrease of 100,000 ounces over the course of the year 2012, just chump change compared to where the company plans to go with 2013 production at approximately 4 million silver eq. ounces run rate and in subsequent future out years to a production rate of about 10 million silver eq. ounces. None of their future expansion targets have changed for Velardena, nor their positive outlook on the resource and its large size.
I am told the equipment should arrive in June but this delay necessitated a small change in production guidance for reasons I very well understand having been to Velardena a few times. The existing mine portals are limited as they have always been by size and haulage capacity plus the company needs the equipment to drive the new portal but has no increased equipment (which is now aged) from when ECU management was in charge. The process to get this equipment from Argentina was started last October and was expected to arrive on site in Mexico for late January but as the company indicated there have been problems with Argentinian customs which is quite normal. They expected arrival then for April which didn't happen so they had to adjust guidance for the balance of the year having lost the benefit of this equipment which they very much need. If you recall ECU management needed this very same equipment but didn't have the capital to acquire it. Fortunately Golden Minerals already owned this equipment from driving their own portal and drifts at El Quevar project.
They are simply studying all options for increased production and besides they can’t increase production to 1300 tpd or eventually 2000 tpd without the completed new ramp being driven which can’t be completed without the arrival of the expected equipment as right now they have to use what was on hand when the merger closed last September which was barely adequate for hauling to meet demands of the mills this is one of the reasons they outlined a decrease in tpd last fall because they needed this equipment to haul muck for the mills and waste from the ramping process. This must have been a very difficult scheduling problem the last few months and has certainly tied their hands.
They also tried to acquire some other equipment but the lead times on some of these items can be many months and they know the equipment will finally arrive from Argentina even if delayed beyond reason. From the perspective of Argentina they know any equipment leaving is not coming back and is gone from providing jobs in Argentina so it’s not hard to imagine the delays.
The company remains ahead of schedule on the new mining techniques to reduce waste rock from the production stopes and in enhancing recovery rates at the 2 mills so the ability to haul more material (muck) is all that remains for continued increased results and to exceed guidance as they accomplished in Q1. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to find that they beat this slightly revised guidance by year end. I also know the company adamantly denies they will use the equity markets for the coming expansion of production to 1300 tpd, if this is the final path they choose. They have lots of capital on hand plus they have stated numerous times they are pursuing deals to monetize part of their inventory of over 80 exploration properties to fund some portion of future expansions and of course debt is option. A company with approximately 35 million shares outstanding and close to 500 million silver eq. ounces with 2 producing mills and tens of millions of dollars in the bank and no debt have tons of options for future development.
I still think the stock is cheap and grossly undervalued and although I bought all the way down the last time the stock went to these levels, I never sold any on the way backup as I very much like the prospects for Golden Minerals. I am on the bid now for those who can’t take the volatility anymore and I understand their tiredness with the whole precious metals sector and this story, it has been a ride the last few years. I intend to be patient for some time yet even though I am frustrated as this bull market wants to carry as few investors as possible when it moves, nothing ever seems to change and this is nothing new but it is maddening to watch the action.