Re: some thoughts on todays resource news
in response to
by
posted on
May 18, 2012 01:28PM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
GWR1 and I have alot of respect for each other and there are often points we agree with and some we occasionally disagree with.
Since 2008, and the JPM annihilation of gold/silver, I have disappointedly felt that the market no longer gave explorers credit for the resource. Case in point, the day ECU reported 431 million silver-equivalent ounces, I believe the stock went up merely 1 cent! Furthermore, some very credible analysts give no credit for the inferred category.
After the massive takedown in 2008, the market suddenly became focused on cash, cash flow, etc. and thus explorers without production were hammered! Fortunately, Michel Roy realized the necessity of obtaining the Hecla oxide mill, even as costly as it was to the stock (Thanks to Blackmont's corrupt sales desk and hedge fund partners in crime).
Now, focusing on this Valardena resource report, it is my understanding that Micon allowed a very wide 400-500 meters inclusion to a drill hole, whereas CAM only allowed 100 meters. It is a different methodology and I'm told by mgmt that most engineering firms are more conservative like CAM.
Management makes it very clear that one study is not right and the other wrong, just a different methodology. Management is also very clear that they KNOW the resource is huge and that there will be production from Valardena for decades. Perhaps all of the 431 million ounces are there on top of the 1/2 billion "potential" that Micon included. So, this may all be moot! However, it could not have been included in this report without drilling many more holes and spencing millions of precious dollars. This is also why management abandoned drilling the Massive Sulfide Zone--it would be expensive, it would not have been available for production for another 10 years, and the market probably would not have given any credit for it.
Management realizes that all the market cares about is production and cash flow. So, instead of spending money on additional drilling, they will put every dollar toward Valardena's production.
Lastly, I still believe that Gilder Gagnon has been the major seller this week and is probably cleaned out. Since they have been selling for a year now, I don't attribute this last million share sale to any "knowledge" of the pending resource news, however one never knows what the shorts might have ascertained. My guess is that the company was planning on delivering the report by the end of the month but was advised to submit the PR immediately with all the volatility and inquiries.
I'm glad it is out and anxiously await production enhancement, supported/funded by property asset sales. This progress will drive AUMN back up much higher.
Silverbull50