Vietnam gold today stood at a premium of $80.10 to world gold of $1,570.80 (Thursday $78.47/$1,572.04).

Shanghai gold closed at a premium of $5.16 to world gold of $1,573.98 on volume equivalent to 7,744 NY lots (Thursday $8.08/$1,566.30/6,660 NY). The yuan was moved down to a 7.01% post $US "depegging" appreciation (Thursday 7.1%).

On low volume equivalent to 5,302 NY TOCOM saw 2.178 tonnes (700 NY) added to open interest but the public only added 0.383 tonnes to their net long as a 1 tonne increase in their long was offset by increased shorts. The active contract rose $3 during the session to go out 10c above the NY 4PM level.

The Irish site GoldCore has published a well illustrated discussion of mine production trends:

Gold veteran Rhona O’Connell has published a useful discussion on Reuters

Today gold started rising on the European open around 3AM NY time, initially peaking around 6-55AM. CME website volume as of 8AM was a significant 43,000 lots. Looking around it appears JBGJ should have stressed more the reversal in silver yesterday, which has attracted much comment and seems to have influenced sentiment.

Sunday, July 15, 2012

Thursday’s CFTC Final indicates that on volume 201,797 lots, 18.96% or some 33,000 lots above estimated, open interest fell 737 lots or 0.17%, to 433,320 contracts. Gold of course was down 0.62% at the floor close and 0.28% at the stock market close. At the low it was down 1.4%. It picked up $5.60 in the apparently busy aftermarket. This supports JBGJ’s suggestion that a selling climax was seen on Thursday, followed by some aggressive short covering.

On Friday in NY, after initially peaking up $22.10 just before 7AM gold backed off some $9 by just after 9AM. Over the next hour gold surged over $18 to the day’s high. Estimated volume between 9AM and 10AM was some 26,000 lots: not large for such an abrupt move. Gold subsequently withstood some selling pressure to settle up $26.70 (1.71%) in the August contract at $1,592. More selling pressure sliced $4.60 off gold by 4PM causing it to stand 1.02% above Thursday’s stock market closing level. Silver was up 0.29%. Aggregate estimated volume was 125,721 lots of which 43,000 was on the CME website as of 8AM. The CME Preliminary puts actual volume 16.92% or 21,000 lots higher at 146,991: post floor session trade was quite active.

Gold shares had a very constructive day, with the HUI and XAU peaking in the early afternoon, well after the gold high, up 1.81% and 1.85%. They closed up 1.47% and 1.58%, well ahead of gold. The GDX/GDXJ ratio came in at 1.44%/2.38% and the S&P/TXS Venture Composite closed up 1.52%.

PHYS rose to a 2.61% premium to NAV but CEF slipped to 1.7% (Thursday 2.54% and 3.8%). The GLD ETF reported no change in stated gold holdings, at 1,269.72738 tonnes.

MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus for gold added 2 points to 57% and silver’s a point to 44%. The HGNSI was unchanged at (2.3%).

In an important discussion of the state of the HGNSI, pleasantly entitled

(JBGJ emphasis)

The CFTC data, which dealt with gold up to last Tuesday when August settled at $1,579.80, down from the previous Tuesday’s $1,621.80, has raised eyebrows. HSBC notes a

(JBGJ emphasis) HSBC suggests

"A rally in either gold or silver may lead to further gains on short covering..."

The more intense analysis supplied by the Got Gold Report points out

The major previous occasion was last October following which of course gold did rally.

July has seen a serious breakdown effort by the Bears. With the macro news turning against them – JBGJ of course is particularly interested in the recovering rupee – they may now be dangerously exposed.