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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Smart Money Acknowledges its Big Miss With GATA and Gold

"The possibility of another 'in your ear' moment is almost a certainty. It's just a matter of when...and how bad it will be."

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

It wasn't an overly exciting trading day on Monday...as volume was virtually non-existent. The attempted price rally in gold, such as it was, at the Far East open didn't amount to much. From there the price declined back to below Friday's close by mid-morning in New York...but managed to close a few dollars in the black by the end of Comex trading at 1:30 p.m. in New York.

But then someone came along and was happy to sell off gold in the electronic market...and gold finished the Monday session down $7.10 on the day. Net volume was around 80,000 contracts...but in actual fact, was probably lower than that.

Silver made several attempts to move well above the $31 spot price, but there was always a not-for-profit seller waiting in the wings to make sure that didn't happen. The price moved above the $31 level in all three markets yesterday...the Far East, London...and New York...and as you already know, every attempt experienced the same fate.

Once Comex trading ended, the silver priced got sold back below $31...and below Friday's close...and at least 50 cents off its high of the day.

Silver closed at the $30.72 spot...down a dime. The roll-overs out of the September delivery month are now in full swing...and once these were removed from the volume data, the real trading amounted to only about 15,000 contracts.

The dollar index opened around the 81.60 mark...and then wandered around either side of unchanged...but finished up about 5 basis points on the day at 81.65. Nothing to see here, folks...please move along.

The gold stocks pretty much followed the gold price around during the New York trading session. There were trading mostly around unchanged...but were slightly in the black until about 12:45 p.m.

From there they began to head south...and really began selling off once the Comex closed at 1:30 p.m. Eastern. The stocks closed just off their lows...with the HUI finishing down 1.33% on the day.

The silver stocks finished lower on the day as well, although there was the odd green arrow amongst the ones that I follow. Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed down 1.09%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

As the August delivery month winds down, the CME Daily Delivery Report showed that 18 gold and 83 silver contracts were posted for delivery tomorrow. In silver, it was Jefferies and ABN Amro as the only two short/issuers...and the Bank of Nova Scotia was the biggest long/stopper with 76 contracts to be received on Wednesday. The link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report is here.

There were no reported changes in GLD yesterday...but over at SLV they reported that 1,453,740 troy ounces of silver were withdrawn. Based on the price action of the previous week, it should be obvious that this silver was desperately needed elsewhere.

Silver should be pouring into SLV, just like gold is pouring into GLD...but that's not happening. Since August 15th, SLV has only had 1.36 million ounces of silver deposited on at net basis. During the same period, GLD has had about 911,600 ounces deposited. My back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that around 5.6 million ounces is still owned to SLV over that same period of time...and that's over and above the 13.7 million ounces that is still owed to SLV by way of the current short position.

One small item that I missed in my Saturday column was a minor increase in the silver holdings over at Sprott's Physical Silver Trust on Friday. Their website showed that they received another 30,000 ounces. Nick Laird and I are looking for about one million ounces more. If it has been received, it certainly hasn't been reported on Sprott's website as of yet.

There was no sales report from the U.S. Mint.

The Comex-approved depositories only received one good delivery bar of silver on Friday... tipping the scales at 958.100 troy ounces...but they shipped 949,571 troy ounces out the door to parts unknown. The link to that action is here.

Since I don't have a chart for you...here's a doggie dish full of baby Meerkats instead. My daughter Kathleen sent me this too-cute-for-words photo a couple of weeks back, and I've been looking for the appropriate moment to post it in my column...and today's the day.

I have the usual number of stories for a Tuesday, which is quite a few.

¤ Critical Reads

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Cash Moves by HSBC in Inquiry

Prosecutors investigating the movement of money by global banks suspect HSBC of laundering money for Mexican drug cartels and moving cash for Saudi Arabian banks with ties to terrorists, according to federal authorities with direct knowledge of the investigations.

The federal and state prosecutors are also investigating whether HSBC flouted United States law by transferring money through its American subsidiary for sanctioned nations, including Iran, Sudan and North Korea.

The weight of the accusations could force HSBC, which has already set aside $700 million to cover the cost of potential fines, to pay at least $1 billion to settle the inquiry, said the authorities with knowledge of the investigation, which would make it the largest such settlement in history.

The money-laundering accusations against HSBC so far are more extensive than the potential violation of United States sanctions that is the focus of the investigations against other foreign banks, including Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank of Germany, BNP Paribas and Crédit Agricole of France and the Royal Bank of Scotland, said the law enforcement authorities, who requested anonymity because the investigations are continuing.

No surprises here. As I said many months ago, most of the world's major international banks are into all this criminal activity because there's big money to be made. The fine that HSBC and other banks will, or have already paid, are just a licensing fee. This story showed up on The New York Times website on Friday sometime...and I thank Donald Sinclair for providing our first story of the day. The link is here.

Share wars: how the robots are robbing you

The prevalence of computer-generated trading in the modern share market has created an unpredictable, and sometimes dangerous, environment for investors.

Robots don't have to take over the world when they've got share markets in their clutches already.

Unlike a mere mortal trading, there isn't even a broker between machine and, well, machine. All that stands between them is a fee the Australian Stock Exchange collects.

Self-automated algorithms can generate 150 trades in the blink of an eye and, unlike ordinary investors or even the big funds, have been given the ultimate privilege of plugging straight into the ASX's computer. They're the ultimate inside traders.

Here's the high-frequency trading story from a 'down under' perspective. It was in the Sunday edition of The Sydney Morning Herald...and I thank Australian reader Wesley Legrand for sharing it with us. The link is here.

Alasdair Macleod: The purpose of market intervention

GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod explains today why big business loves government intervention in the economy: It's a source of subsidy and price fixing and thus is anti-market and anti-consumer.

This story was posted over at the goldmoney.com Internet site yesterday...and I plucked it from a GATA release. The link is here.

Argentine leader's image falls as inflation soars

Argentine President Cristina Fernandez's popularity sank to 30 percent in August, less than half of what it was a year earlier, according to a poll published on Sunday that portrayed a country worried about crime and high inflation.

Since then the economy has slowed, and the poll suggests most people are not buying Fernandez's argument that external factors, such as Europe's financial mess, are mostly to blame.

Annual inflation, clocked by private analysts at over 20 percent, was another worry voiced in the survey. The government fines economists who publish their inflation estimates, which tend to double or triple the official figures.

This Reuters story was filed from Buenos Aires on Sunday afternoon...and I thank Scott Pluschau for sending it along. The link is here.

China announces £800bn stimulus to boost confidence

One Chinese province after another has stepped forward over the last fortnight to announce their plans, in what appears to be a propaganda effort to reassure the public that the economy is still on track.

Meanwhile, Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, promised over the weekend that the Chinese government would intensify its efforts to boost the economy in the second half of the year.

On a visit to Guangdong, the heartland of China's export industry, Mr Wen warned that "there will still be a lot of problems and uncertainties in exports going forward. The third quarter is a crucial period".

Analysts said the government could now steer the value of the yuan lower, after a gain of 4.7pc last year against the dollar. Further export tax rebates could also be used to bail out manufacturers.

This article was posted on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site early on Sunday evening...and goes on to state that "Many of the new stimulus projects appear to simply be restatements of existing commitments, and there was no indication of how they will be funded." I thank Donald Sinclair once again for providing this story...and the link is here.

At Summit Meeting, Iran Has a Message for the World

At the entrance to the convention hall where Iran is sponsoring an international summit meeting are the crumpled wreckage of three cars driven by Iranian nuclear scientists who have been killed or hurt in bomb attacks. Placards with the photos of the scientists and their children stand alongside.

The message is clear. As Iran plays host to the biggest international conference the Islamic republic has organized in its 33-year history, it wants to tell its side of the long standoff with the Western powers, which are increasingly convinced that Tehran is pursuing nuclear weapons.

Tehran, which denies that it is after the bomb, believes the scientists were killed by Israeli agents, an assertion that Israel has not acknowledged but never fully disputed.

This very interesting read showed up on The New York Times website on Sunday...and is another offering from Donald Sinclair. The link is here.

Peak cheap oil is an incontrovertible fact: Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Brent crude jumped to $115 a barrel last week. Petrol costs in Germany and across much of Europe are now at record levels in local currencies.

Diesel is above the political pain threshold of $4 a gallon in the US, hence reports circulating last week that the International Energy Agency (IEA) is preparing to release strategic reserves.

Barclays Capital expects a “monster” effect this quarter as the crude market tightens by 2.4m barrels a day (bpd), with little extra supply in sight.

Goldman Sachs said the industry is chronically incapable of meeting global needs. “It is only a matter of time before inventories and OPEC spare capacity become effectively exhausted, requiring higher oil prices to restrain demand,” said its oil guru David Greely.

This is a remarkable state of affairs given the world economy is close to a double-dip slump right now, the latest relapse in our contained global depression.

Yes, dear reader, it most certainly is. As I [and others] have been saying for many years now, we are on the downhill slope of Hubbard's Peak. Peak oil appeared to occur in 2005...and global output has been flat at best ever since. This must read story from The Telegraph on late Sunday afternoon was sent to us by Roy Stephens...and the link is here.

Merkel and Hollande sidestep Greece's plea for breathing space

Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande pledged to keep Greece in the eurozone, but offered Greece no immediate relief from its current regime of painful austerity measures.

Following talks with the Greek prime minister, Antonis Samaras, on Saturday, Mr Hollande said that "Greece is in the eurozone and Greece must stay in the eurozone".

But, he cautioned: "It still has to demonstrate the credibility of its programme and the willingness of its leaders to go the whole way, while doing it in a way that is bearable for the population."

“Once these commitments, which are not only financial but about structural reforms that the Greeks want, have been ratified by parliament and confirmed, Europe must do its part,” the French president added.

This story showed up on The Telegraph's website early on Saturday evening...and I thank Roy Stephens once again for bringing it to our attention. The link is here.

Weidmann Says ECB Purchases Could Become ‘Addictive Like a Drug’

Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said a proposed new wave of sovereign bond purchases by the European Central Bank may increase governments’ reliance on such funding and won’t help solve the euro-area debt crisis.

“We shouldn’t underestimate the danger that central bank financing can become addictive like a drug,” Weidmann said in an interview with Der Spiegel. “Such policy is too close to state financing via the money press for me.”

ECB President Mario Draghi said earlier this month that the central bank may intervene in the secondary market to lower yields in countries that ask Europe’s bailout fund to buy its bonds in the primary market. While such a move would ensure conditionality, the Bundesbank has been critical of the plan.

“In democracies, parliaments rather than central banks should decide on such an encompassing mutualization of risks,” Spiegel cited Weidmann as saying in an e-mailed summary of the interview today. The plans are becoming “concerted actions by the state rescue mechanisms and the central bank. That causes a link between fiscal and monetary policy.”

This Bloomberg story was filed from Frankfurt...and posted on their website in the wee hours of Sunday morning. It's worth skimming...and I thank Ulrike Marx for sharing it with us. The link is here.

Merkel tries to calm storms over Greece, ECB policy

Angela Merkel tried to calm a growing storm over euro zone crisis strategy on Sunday after the Bundesbank likened ECB bond-buying plans to a 'dangerous drug' and a conservative ally of the German leader said Greece should leave the currency bloc by next year.

The comments, from central bank chief Jens Weidmann and a senior figure in the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU), Alexander Dobrindt, point to mounting unease in Germany with the policies being used to combat the three-year old debt crisis.

Domestic criticism has narrowed Merkel's room for maneuver at a time when Greece is in dire need of more aid and policymakers are scrambling to prevent contagion from enveloping big countries like Spain and Italy.

Despite Merkel's plea "that everyone weigh their words very carefully"...this is a situation that is only going to get worse...never better. This Reuters piece showed up on the money.ca.msn.com Internet site on Sunday afternoon...and I thank Donald Sinclair for sending it along. The link is here.

Unilever sees 'return to poverty' in Europe

Unilever will adopt marketing strategies used in developing countries in order to drive future growth in Europe, as the head of its European business warned that poverty will rise in the region as a result of the debt crisis.

Poverty is returning to Europe," Jan Zijderveld, the head of Unilever's European business told the Financial Times Deutschland in an interview.

"If a consumer in Spain only spends €17 when they go shopping, then I'm not going to be able to sell them washing powder for half of their budget."

Unilever has already started to change the way it sells some of its products. In Spain, the company sells Surf detergent in packages for as few as five washes, while in Greece, it now offers mashed potatoes and mayonnaise in small packages, and has created a low-cost brand for basic goods such as tea and olive oil.

"In Indonesia, we sell individual packs of shampoo 2 to 3 cents and still make decent money," said Mr Zijderveld. "We know how to do that, but in Europe we have forgotten in the years before the crisis."

This Roy Stephens offering was posted on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site early yesterday afternoon BST...and it's worth reading. The link is here.

Seven King World News Blogs/Interviews

The first blog is with Dan Norcini. It's headlined "Absolutely Stunning Development in the Gold & Silver Markets". Next is this blog with Michael Pento...and it's entitled "Fed and the ECB are Involved in a Dangerous Game of Poker". The third blog is with John Hathaway...and it's headlined "Gold, Jim Grant, Bernanke, Draghi and a Collapse in Confidence". Next is a blog with Dr. Stephen Leeb...and it bears the headline "The Catalyst That Will Take Gold Over $10,000". The last blog is with Richard Russell...and it's entitled "This is the Beginning of a Major Move in Gold". The first audio interview is with Jean-Marie Eveillard...and the second audio interview is with Eric Sprott.

Eric Sprott Cautions Investors to Fear the Financial System

The dire economic situation that persists globally despite the best efforts of central planners to make things seem normal leads Sprott Inc.'s legendary Chairman Eric Sprott to broadcast a loud message of caution: "Fear the financial system." In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Sprott says it's time for people to take matters into their own hands and that means pushing further and further into precious metals equities as well as physical gold and silver. With 80% of his own portfolio in that arena, he certainly puts his money where his mouth is.

This interview was posted on The Gold Report Internet site yesterday...and it's always been my opinion that anything Eric has to say, is worth your time. This interview is no exception...and the link is here.

Smart Money acknowledges its big miss with GATA and gold

Founded in 1992, Smart Money magazine, a product of The Wall Street Journal, is going out of business with its September issue, which includes a review, titled "Hits and Misses," of what the magazine, its editors, and writers have gotten right and wrong in their 20 years. Perhaps their biggest miss is gold, as signified by the magazine's recapitulation of its June 2004 interview with GATA Chairman Bill Murphy, who remarked that the monetary metal, then priced at $422 per ounce, would double.

That article itself...and the rest of Chris Powell's preamble is worth reading as well. It was posted on the gata.org Internet site on Saturday...and the link is here.

Financial Sense Newshour interviews GATA Chairman Bill Murphy

GATA Chairman Bill Murphy is interviewed for a half hour by Jim Puplava on the latest Financial Sense Newshour Internet radio program. They discuss gold market manipulation, suppression of gold mining share prices, GATA's history, and the prospects for the monetary metals.

The interview was posted on the financialsense.com Internet site on Saturday...and the link is here.

Labour strife returns in South Africa's platinum belt

Labour strife returned to South Africa's platinum sector on Monday, derailing London-based Lonmin's efforts to restart mining and fanning fears of a resurgence of the violence that has killed 44 people this month.

Workers blocked colleagues from going down mine shafts and used threats of violence to snarl transport at Lonmin's Marikana mine - where 10 people were killed in a union turf war and police shot dead 34 striking miners.

"There have been incidents of intimidation towards bus drivers overnight as well as intimidation of Eastern's workers this morning, preventing them from coming to work," Lonmin said in a statement, referring to its eastern operations, which had avoided such incidents until now.

This Reuters story was filed from Markana, South Africa yesterday...and posted on their website early in the afternoon BST. I thank Ulrike Marx for her second offering in today's column...and the link is here.

South Africa's gold sector also hit with wage hike demands

South Africa's gold mining companies have been hit by union demands for wage hikes but the industry has little room to budge as current collective agreements do not expire until the middle of next year, the country's chamber of mines said on Monday.

Elize Strydom, who heads employment relations at the chamber, said the demands were made several weeks ago by local branches of the National Union of Mineworkers and not the national office.

South Africa's big gold miners Gold Fields, Harmony and AngloGold Ashanti negotiate collectively through the chamber for industry-wide wage agreements and the current 2-year deals will not expire until June, 2013.

"The chamber feels very strongly that we should respect agreements," Strydom told Reuters. But she added that a task team was going to look into the matter.

This is another Reuters story...this one filed from Johannesburg on Monday. It's posted on the mineweb.com Internet site..and I thank Ulrike Marx for her third and final offering in today's column. The link is here.

Gold Set for Best Year Since 2010 as Stimulus Bets Increase

Gold is poised to climb the most in two years as prospects for additional economic stimulus by governments from the U.S. to China stoke demand for the precious metal as a bet against inflation, a survey showed.

Bullion for immediate delivery may reach $1,800 an ounce by the year-end, extending gains this year to 15 percent, according to the median forecast in the Bloomberg survey of 15 traders and analysts at a conference in Hyderabad in South India on Aug. 25. That would be the most since a 30 percent surge in 2010, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Gold is set for a 12th year of gains as the European sovereign-debt crisis boosts haven demand amid speculation of further policy easing by central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, which may be considering a third round of so- called quantitative easing, or QE3. Investment holdings have expanded to a record on demand for a hedge against inflation.

“The euro zone has been quiet of late, but that doesn’t mean the problems have disappeared,” said Jeffrey Rhodes, global head of precious metals at INTL FCStone Inc. (INTL), who expects gold to rally to $1,975 by year-end. “The U.S. economy has been sluggish and there is a growing belief that there is going to be QE3 soon. This anticipation is driving the market.”

West Virginia reader Elliot Simon...who sent me this Bloomberg piece yesterday...commented that "Bloomberg can be annoying more often than not...even when they're being bullish on gold." By the time I was through reading the article, that's the impression I got as well. The link is here.

Republicans tease with gold standard, but idea seen full of bugs

This Reuters story showed up on their website on Sunday. They finally got around to mentioning GATA in this article but, as Chris Powell put it in the GATA release on Sunday..."it was just to help disparage the Republican tease about gold." That's probably the truth.

Anyway, if you're interested, the story is linked here.

Indian gold buying picks up as festival season kicks off

The lure of the yellow metal seems to be back and gold prices have been growing from strength to strength. On Monday morning, India's benchmark October gold contract extended gains to hit a high of $558.70 (Rs 31,077) per 10 grams, following a rally in the world markets and a weak rupee. On Friday, the yellow metal hit another life-time high in Rupee terms of $564.35 per 10 gram.

It seems, however, that high price levels have not really dampened retailers' seasonal buying mood in the run up to the festive season that kicks off this week in India. Bulk purchases for marriages continue, with most retailers stocking up and individuals buying smaller items of gold jewellery.

Though gifting of new clothes is a much loved custom of the festival, since the colours of the season are shades of cream and gold, people have decided to go one step further and gift smaller items of gold jewellery.

The traditional necklaces have been tweaked, at times beyond recognition, to appeal to a new generation of customers who want something more in keeping with their lifestyle. And this does not translate into something cheaper.

This mineweb.com story was filed from Mumbai yesterday...and I thank Donald Sinclair for his final offering in today's column. The link is here.

Peter Brimelow: Is gold heading to $4,500?

Gold makes its move. The bugs are rampant.

The yellow metal made life very difficult for commentators trying to keep a regular schedule on Wednesday.

MarketWatch's Claudia Assis could hardly have hit the 'send' button on her story headed "Gold ends lower as other metals gain," which dealt with the close of floor trading -- the December gold contract was down $2.40 -- when the Fed minutes set the market roaring.

By the stock market close, gold had risen over $17 to stand 1% above Tuesday's stock market closing level and at the highest since early May.

This marketwatch.com story was posted on their Internet site on Thursday of last week...and it showed up in a GATA release on Sunday, which is where I found it. The link is here.

¤ The Funnies

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¤ The Wrap

In explaining any puzzling Washington phenomenon, always choose stupidity over conspiracy, and incompetence over cunning. Anything else gives them too much credit. - Charles Krauthammer

With volume levels being as low as they were yesterday, there's not much to read into yesterday's price action...although it did appear that silver was deliberately kept under the $31 spot price mark...as no 'for profit' seller would ever sell into a rally in such a manner as to kill it.

The roll-overs out of the September delivery month in silver have to done by the end of trading on Thursday...and the lion's share of the volume in silver on Monday was just that. I expect the same sort of activity for the rest of the week. First Day Notice for delivery into the September silver contract will be posted on the CME's website late on Thursday night...and I'll have the details for you on Friday.

We're now down to the last week of summer in the Northern Hemisphere...and once we get past the Labour Day long weekend, I would make the assumption that all bets will be off.

But, having said that, there's still the little matter of what JPMorgan et al did, or didn't do, in the gold and silver markets since the 1:30 p.m. COT cut-off last Tuesday. Their handiwork in Wednesday's and Thursday's big rallies won't be know until the Commitment of Traders Report comes out this Friday. Today, at 1:30 p.m. Eastern time, is the cut-off for that report.

Both Ted Butler and I feel that the Commercial net short position will rise a considerable amount once again...and the possibility of another 'in your ear' moment is almost a certainty. It's just a matter of when...and how bad it will be...and how long it will last. Will it happen starting right after the cut-off...or maybe next week sometime. Maybe they'll get overrun. But, as Ted Butler has pointed out to me over the last ten years or so...if they do, it will be for the very first time.

Not only do 'da boyz' have to get out of their now larger short positions in the Comex futures market, there's also the little matter of the big short position that they now carry in GLD...but particularly SLV. This is something else they'll be gunning for when the time comes.

All four precious metals are already well into overbought territory, so nothing has changed since last Friday...and here's the 6-month silver chart as a 'for instance'. It appears that a top has been painted in silver...and the other three precious metals charts have a similar appearance.

(Click on image to enlarge)

But, as I said when discussing this issue in this space on Friday and Saturday...any sell-off should be agressively bought.

Gold and silver prices didn't do much in Far East trading on their Tuesday...and nothing much happened at the London open, but starting just before 9:00 a.m. BST, smallish rallies began...and both metals are now a bit above Monday's closing prices in New York. It remains to be seen how long this state of affairs lasts...or is allowed to last. Volumes, which had been on the lighter before the London open, have now picked up a bit. The dollar index rallied a hair in overnight trading...and as I hit the send button at 5:20 a.m. Eastern time, it's only up about 10 basis points.

That's more than enough for one day...and I'll see you here tomorrow.

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