Ed Steer this morning
posted on
Aug 29, 2012 10:24AM
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Paulson Soothes Skittish B of A Investors About Fund Gold Holdings
"Nothing has changed regarding the overbought situation in all the precious metals."
Well, the smallish rally in early London trading went nowhere early yesterday morning...and neither did the rally that began at the 10:00 a.m. Eastern time London p.m. gold fix. The high of the day [$1,673.50 spot] came around 11:45 a.m. in New York. From there it got sold off to just about unchanged from Monday's close.
The gold priced finished the Tuesday trading session at $1,666.60 spot...up $3.00. Net volume was around 112,000 contracts, but I would guess that a large chunk of that would have been of the high-frequency trading variety.
The silver rally that began in early London trading got chopped off at the knees just a few minutes after Comex trading began. That rally attempt...and the subsequent one following the 10:00 a.m. Eastern time London p.m. gold fix...were both sold off the moment that they broke through the $31.00 per ounce price point.
As I pointed out yesterday, there is obviously a not-for-profit seller sitting at this price level, so I'm not expecting that silver will be allowed to break above that price until after the price correction I'm anticipating, has run its course. However, I would be delighted to be proven wrong on this.
Silver's low price tick [around $30.45 spot] came shortly after 12 o'clock noon Hong Kong time...and the high [$31.13 spot] was set less than ten minutes after Comex trading began.
Silver closed at $30.90 spot...up 18 cents on the day. Gross volume was enormous, but once all the roll-overs out of the September delivery month were subtracted, the net volume was around 14,000 contracts...and that's not a lot.
Here's the New York Spot Silver [Bid] chart so you can see the high tick just after the Comex open...and the New York low at the 10:00 a.m. London p.m. gold fix.
The dollar index opened on Tuesday morning at 81.65...and the quickly rose to its high of the day [around 81.82] within a couple of hours. Then it slowly began to sell off...and that pace quickened considerably about thirty minutes after London opened. The low tick [around 81.29] came shortly after 11:00 a.m. in New York...and the index recovered a hair into the close...finishing the day down about 28 basis points at 81.37. Like the gold price, I wouldn't read much into yesterday's currency moves, either.
The gold stocks chopped around slightly above the unchanged mark...and then dived a bit into the close. The HUI managed to hold onto a tiny 0.13% gain.
The silver stocks finished mixed...but the ones that mattered didn't do as well, so Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed down an equally tiny 0.24%.
(Click on image to enlarge)
The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 43 gold and 11 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Thursday...and the link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report is here. There are a few dozen more gold contracts left to deliver in August...but in silver, it looks like their deliveries are done for the month.
And, for the second day in a row, there was an increase in GLD...and another withdrawal from SLV. An authorized participant added another 96,971 troy ounces of gold...but an authorized participant withdrew 387,644 ounces of silver.
Since the rally began in both metals last Monday, GLD has added 475,181 ounces of gold...and SLV has only added 969,209 ounces of silver. During that time period, there were four additions to GLD...and one addition and two withdrawals from SLV.
It was another day of no sales activity from the U.S. Mint.
Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Monday, they reported receiving 1,544,761 troy ounces of silver...and only shipped a tiny 10,032 ounces out the door. The link to that action is here.
I have the usual amount of stories for a weekday...and I hope you can find the time to read the ones that interest you.
Richard Eggers doesn't look like a mastermind of financial crime.
The former farm boy speaks deliberately, can't remember the last time he got a speeding ticket, and favors suspenders, horn-rimmed glasses, and plaid shirts. But the 68-year-old Vietnam veteran is still too risky for Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, which fired him on July 12 from his $29,795-a-year job as a customer service representative.
Egger's crime? Putting a cardboard cutout of a dime in a washing machine in Carlisle on Feb. 2, 1963.
"It was a stupid stunt and I'm not real proud of it, but to fire somebody for something like this after seven good years of employment is a dirty trick when you come right down to it," said Eggers, a Des Moines resident. "And [the big banks are] doing this kind of thing all across the country."
This comes out of the top drawer of the "You Can't Make This Stuff Up" filing cabinet...and as Chris Powell said in his GATA release, "There IS still some financial law enforcement in America, except it's just for the little people for the most trivial violations. Jon Corzine and Jamie Dimon remain at large." It was posted in the Des Moines Register yesterday...and the link is here.
General Motors Co. will idle the Michigan assembly plant that makes the Chevrolet Volt for four weeks from the middle of September to the middle of October, plant suppliers and union sources said on Monday.
It will be the second time this year that the plant, which straddles the border of Detroit and the city of Hamtramck, has stopped making Volts.
GM confirmed the plant idling, saying it will continue to "match supply with demand" for both the Volt and the Chevrolet Malibu sedan that is also made at the plant. The automaker declined to specify how long the plant will be closed.
This story was posted in the Chicago Tribune on Monday...and I dug it out of yesterday's edition of the King Report. The link is here.
Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Sandra Pianalto said Monday that monetary policy cannot solve all of the economy's problems, including the European debt crisis and uncertainty caused by the stalemate over U.S. fiscal policy.
Pianalto is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year and her views on whether the Fed should ease again are being closely watched. Pianalto did not announce whether she supported more Fed asset purchases. While prior Fed asset purchases have provided benefits, the tools come with benefits and risks, Pianalto said. The potential cost of more quantitative easing is it could interfere with financial stability or distort market functioning.
Distort market functioning??? That's all the Fed does...and that's all it has been doing since it was founded in 1913. This marketwatch.com story from Monday is another that I found in yesterday's edition of the King Report...and the link is here.
In the City, they call it a “false market”. This occurs when erroneous information, often deliberately circulated, becomes the basis for investors’ decisions. The result is illogical choices, as buyers and sellers, who believe they are behaving rationally, trade on deception dressed up as news.
Looking beyond the Square Mile to the wider British economy, there is mounting evidence that a false market is operating in our appreciation of consumer debt, state borrowing and the viability of pensions and healthcare. A baleful gap has opened up between what voters think is happening and what’s really going on. This is not surprising when so many in high office appear equally baffled. Drop into the mix a dollop of deceit from unscrupulous politicians, trade unions and financial services providers, and the upshot is widespread misunderstanding and a legacy of misery for future generations.
As Britain slips deeper into a quagmire of debt, the price of ignorance goes up. In my research for a new Sky News documentary, Born Bankrupt, I encountered a disturbing disconnection between public perception and financial reality – exacerbated by contradictory data from so-called experts.
This very interesting read showed up on the telegraph.co.uk website on Monday...and I thank London reader Iain Doherty for sharing it with us. The link is here.
Pierre Moscovici said the burden of the "extremely substantial" cut would be shared equally between the French state and oil companies with each contributing three cents per litre.
"Pump prices will drop up to six cents, three for fuel companies and three for the state," he said following a meeting with fuel companies. "This means it will cost €1.50 less to put 25 litres in the fuel tank. It's a substantial amount, especially for people with low revenues or who have to drive a lot."
The temporary three-month measure will cost the French state around €300m (£237m) in lost tax revenue, and would then be followed by a more permanent mechanism, the minister added.
Keeping a lid on pump prices, which have soared to record levels on rising costs in the European wholesale market, was a prominent pledge of Francois Hollande's presidential campaign that swept the Socialists to power earlier this year.
Isn't socialism grand? This story was posted on The Telegraph's website during the lunch hour in London yesterday...and is Roy Stephens first offering of the day. The link is here.
Spain's north-eastern region of Catalonia, which represents around a fifth of the country's economic output, will tap a state liquidity facility for just over €5bn, a spokeswoman for the region's economy head has said.
"We will not accept political conditions for the aid," she added. Of Spain's 17 regions, Valencia and Murcia have also said they would need recourse to the fund.
The government announced in July it was setting up a new liquidity mechanism to help the regions repay their debts, using funds from the state lottery and bank loans. But the facility is still not up and running.
Some six regions are expected to need the aid from the central government to be able to meet strict deficit targets and pay providers.
This story was also from the telegraph.co.uk Internet site early yesterday afternoon BST...and it's Roy Stephens second offering in a row. The link is here.
Up until now, the title of "Spain's scariest chart" belonged to one depicting its youth (and general) unemployment, both of which are so off the charts it is not even funny (especially to those millions of Spaniards who are currently unemployed).
As of today we have a contender for joint ownership of said title - Spain's monthly deposit outflows, which in July hit the highest amount ever, and where the YTD deposit outflow is now the highest on record. One look at the chart below confirms that nobody in Spain got the June 29 Euro summit memo that "Europe is fixed".
You just read this entire must read Zero Hedge posting...but the four charts embedded in the column are worth looking at...especially the first two. I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for sending it our way...and the link is here.
Spain's most iconic retailing store El Conte Ingles shows dramatic slip in sales amid the country's economic crisis and makes efforts to adjust to a new reality.
But things aren't looking good...and on it's current path, this giant department store chain days are clearly numbered. This is another Roy Stephens offering...and this 2:38 video clip showed up on theglobeandmail.com Internet site yesterday. The link is here.
Data from the European Central Bank shows that outflows from Spanish commercial banks reached €74bn (£59bn) in July, twice the previous monthly record. This brings the total deposit loss over the past year to 10.9pc...or 7pc of GDP in a single month...replicating the pattern seen in Greece as the crisis spread.
It is unclear how much of the deposit loss is capital flight, either to German banks or other safe-haven assets such as London property. The Bank of Spain said the fall is distorted by the July effect of tax payments and by the expiry of securitised funds.
Julian Callow from Barclays Capital said the deposit loss is €65bn even when adjusted for the season: “This is highly significant. Deposit outflows are clearly picking up and the balance sheet of the Spanish banking system is contracting.”
Economy secretary Fernando Jimenez Latorre said Spain is in the eye of the storm right now with the “worst falls” in economic output yet to come in the second half of the year.
It didn't take Ambrose Evans-Pritchard long to pounce on this story...and here it is all teed up in this offering from The Telegraph late yesterday evening BST. I thank Manitoba reader Ulrike Marx for finding it...and the link to this must read news item is here.
The economy is in trouble and unemployment is rising -- in the Netherlands as in much of the rest of Europe. Ahead of upcoming elections, the Socialists are riding a wave of euro-skepticism and may emerge as the strongest political force in the country.
Emile Roemer, 50, is standing in front of the large banner of his Socialist Party. Its logo consists of a bright red tomato with a white star at the top. For the Socialists, the tomato symbolizes a protest against the current situation in the Netherlands. The small star is a nod to the Maoist roots of this staunchly leftist party.
Roemer, an imposing man, is doing what he usually does these days, as he stands in front of the image of the tomato: He is beaming and looking sure of victory. According to the polls, the former elementary school teacher could become the next prime minister of the Netherlands.
This story was posted on the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and is also courtesy of Roy Stephens. The link is here.
Welfare groups say shrinking pensions are forcing older Germans to keep working even after they have reached retirement age.
Figures released by the government show that 762,000 retirees hold so-called "mini-jobs" in the country of 82m. That represents a 60pc increase since 2000.
The term "mini-jobs" is typically used to describe low-skilled work such stacking store shelves and cleaning.
The president of welfare group VdK, Ulrike Mascher, says the figures are evidence of increasing poverty among older Germans.
The opposition Left Party, which requested the figures, says the income of many retired women is frequently lower than the official minimum deemed necessary to live.
This is another story courtesy of Roy Stephens. This one showed up on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site mid-afternoon BST...and the link is here.
The negotiations have been going for years. And if all goes well, Greece and Switzerland will finally finalize a tax treaty this September which could bring billions of euros back to Athens. Modelled on Switzerland's agreements with Germany, Great Britain and Austria, the deal is aimed at the billions of euros Athens estimates that wealthy Greeks have parked in the Alpine country to avoid taxes back home.
After months of delays, the three party coalition led by Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras now wants to implement the deal as quickly as possible in hopes that they'll be able to find billions for Athens' coffers. But there's also another reason for the rush: Samaras needs to show he is serious about reform. Greece desperately needs a win in its fight against rampant tax evasion.
For one, Samaras needs to demonstrate resolve on the issue to his country's international creditors. Indeed, the issue was a topic when the Greek prime minister paid a visit to Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin last Friday. For another, the Greek government is eager to show honest taxpayers that their dishonest compatriots can't get off so easy.
This is another news item from the spiegel.de website...and it's also courtesy of Roy Stephens. The link is here.
The deliveries of truck loads of money and queues outside branches of Vietnam’s biggest lender, Asia Commercial Bank, ready to withdraw their cash almost as quickly as stocks were replenished were an eloquent expression of the fears stalking the county’s banking system.
ACB suffered a huge run on its funds by customers this week following the arrest of its co-founder, Nguyen Duc Kien, a flamboyant tycoon from one of the country’s richest families, and then the chief executive, Ly Xuan Hai, who had stepped down.
But ACB’s difficulties – which officials said were under control – are merely a reflection of wider worries about Vietnam’s fragile banking system: that the level of bad debts, the highest in south-east Asia, could imperil Vietnam’s economy.
Vietnam’s central bank said in July that the level of non-performing loans across the banking system stood at 8.6pc, double that previously acknowledged. But earlier, in June, the central bank director Nguyen Van Binh had said it was 10pc, while analysts believe the true figure could be even greater. Among smaller banks some say it might be as high as 50pc.
This story was posted on The Telegraph's website on Monday evening...and I didn't get it from reader Donald Sinclair until after I hit the 'send' button on Tuesday's column, so here it is now. No wonder the Vietnamese people are buying gold with both hands. It's a must read for sure...and the link is here.
Holders of Soviet bonds first sold in Communist leader Leonid Brezhnev’s final year are getting in France what they can’t get from President Vladimir Putin: money.
The European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg ordered Russia last month to pay Yuriy Lobanov, a septuagenarian from the Ivanovo region near Moscow, 37,150 euros ($46,497) in compensation for the 1982 notes he held, or about 140 times the average monthly pension. Mariya Andreyeva, a 95-year-old survivor of the Nazi blockade of Leningrad, won a preliminary 4,300 euros on the bonds, which doubled as lottery tickets.
The securities are part of the 25 trillion rubles ($785 billion), equal to almost half of Russian economic output, the government says it still owes the public from lost Soviet savings. Putin is stalling, most recently signing an order in April to halt payments on the notes until at least 2015. Now, armed with court rulings, veteran speculators are joining pensioners in seeking to cash in.
“This all should have been settled back in the 1990s,” said Boris Kheyfets, a Soviet debt specialist at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Economics in Moscow. “How do you assume a debt that huge? It would collapse everything immediately.”
My jaw hit the floor when I read this longish Bloomberg piece from yesterday...as I'd never heard of this until I read about it as I was working on this column last night. This story appeared on their website in the wee hours of yesterday morning, Moscow Time...and I thank Australian reader Wesley Legrand for bringing it to our attention. It's definitely worth reading...and the link is here...and please note the reference to toilet paper at the end.
The first is with John Embry...and it's headlined "Gold, Silver, a Collapsing Economy & Panic". The second blog is with Rick Rule. It's entitled "The Frightening Global Ponzi Scheme Continues". And lastly is the blog with Caesar Bryan that's headlined "Continued Bank Runs in Europe, Battle Lines Drawn & Gold".
During an usual conference call Tuesday with financial advisers from Bank of America's wealth management unit and their clients, über hedge fund founder John Paulson reportedly defended the track record of his gold fund, which he allegedly acknowledged was the worst performing in the Paulson & Co. portfolio this year.
Various news media organizations quoted unidentified sources who participated in the call. The conference call was prompted in part by a decision by Citigroup's private bank to withdraw $410 million from Paulson's two largest funds, Advantage and Advantage Plus.
Long bullish on gold, Paulson reiterated during the call that his bets on gold will pay off although current returns are disappointing. Almost a quarter of the Advantage funds were invested in gold this year, as well as in the Paulson Gold Funds, Businessweek reported in June.
There wasn't much in the way of precious metal news stories yesterday...and this is one of the two that I found. It was filed from Reno, Nevada...and posted on the mineweb.co.za Internet site just a few minutes after midnight Mountain Daylight Time...and it's well worth reading. The link is here.
Last week, gold bugs were rewarded with the long-awaited positive momentum in the yellow metal, and on Friday, bullion rose to about $1,670. After falling below the 200-day moving average, gold had been stuck in quicksand for several months. With the jumps in the price last week, bullion swiftly rose above this critically important long-term moving average.
Bloomberg reported on Thursday that gold investors were the “most bullish in nine months” as its survey of 29 of 35 analysts indicated that they expected prices to rise—only three were bearish toward the metal.
This Frank Holmes commentary on gold was posted on the kitco.com Internet site yesterday...and is certainly worth running through. The link is here.
Last week, gold bugs were rewarded with the long-awaited positive momentum in the yellow metal, and on Friday, bullion rose to about $1,670. After falling below the 200-day moving average, gold had been stuck in quicksand for several months. With the jumps in the price last week, bullion swiftly rose above this critically important long-term moving average.
Bloomberg reported on Thursday that gold investors were the “most bullish in nine months” as its survey of 29 of 35 analysts indicated that they expected prices to rise—only three were bearish toward the metal.
This Frank Holmes commentary on gold was posted on the kitco.com Internet site yesterday...and is certainly worth running through. The link is here.
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Yesterday was just another day off the calendar, as Ted Butler always puts it. The only comment I have on yesterday's price action is the obvious cap that silver now has at the $31 per ounce price level...as that was certainly the case for the second day running. We'll have to see how long that lasts.
With only three trading days left in August...and the northern hemisphere's 2012 summer season...I'm not expecting a lot of fireworks between now and after the Labour Day long weekend. I know that Bernanke is going to open his yap in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday...and it will be interesting to see what effect that has on precious metal prices. Everyone is breathlessly waiting for the QE3 announcement either on that day, or at the FOMC soirée on September 12th. So we wait.
Nothing has changed regarding the overbought situation in all the precious metals...and I'm still expecting a sharp, short and brutal sell-off to relieve this situation, before we head higher. I just can't see prices rallying significantly higher from here without that occurring first.
Yesterday at the close of Comex trading was the cut-off for this Friday's Commitment of Traders Report. With that data in hand, we should get a much clearer picture of how much deterioration there was in the Commercial net short position in both silver and gold...and just how much paper JPMorgan et al had to throw at them to keep the prices in line.
In Far East trading on their Wednesday, the prices in gold and silver didn't do much...and silver's two attempts to break through the $31 price mark were, once again, turned back in the usual way. Volume in gold is very light as London opens at 8:00 a.m. BST...3:00 a.m. Eastern time. All the current volume in silver is roll-overs out of the September contract, so there is no net volume at all. Unless they're standing for delivery, the large traders have to be out of their September silver contracts by the end of trading today...and that fact is already evident. The dollar index is flat.
As I hit the send button a couple of hours after writing the above paragraph, there isn't anything happening in either metal in mid-morning trading in London. Volume has picked up quite a bit in gold, but it's still on the lighter side...and virtually all of silver's now-considerable volume number is still all roll-overs. If there is to be any sort of price activity in the precious metals today, it looks like it will come during the Comex trading session...if at all.
Have a good day...and I'll see you here tomorrow.