Ed Steer this morning
posted on
Sep 13, 2012 09:38AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
‘Best Climate' Don Coxe Has Ever Seen For Gold Price Increases
"There was nothing free-market about that 20-minute engineered price decline in silver yesterday morning, either."
Well, it was an interesting day on Wednesday. The gold price spiked on the news out of the German courts yesterday morning...but the rally was crushed in minutes by a massive selling orgy by the bullion banks.
From that point, the gold price traded more or less sideways until the 8:20 a.m. Comex open...and then the selling pressure began anew. The low for the day [$1,724.30 spot] came around 10:45 a.m. Eastern...and about fifteen minutes before the London close.
The gold price made several attempts to rally after that, but every rally, no matter how small, got sold off...and the gold price was carefully closed below Tuesday's closing price. In technical terms, gold had a key reversal to the downside.
Gold finished the Wednesday trading session at $1,731.40 spot...down $1.10 from Tuesday. Net volume was an eye-watering 197,000 contracts. "Da Boyz" threw everything they had at the gold price yesterday to prevent it from blowing to the outer edges of the known universe...and the same can be said about the silver price as well.
The silver story for Wednesday was even more egregious. After getting stopped cold at the $34 spot mark for the fourth day in a row, silver got sold down slowly until about 10:20 a.m. in New York. At that point, JPMorgan et al engineered a one dollar waterfall price decline that ended less than twenty minutes later. Silver printed $32.40 spot at its low tick. Then, like gold, silver made several attempts to rally, but got sold off each time...and also had what I consider to be an engineered key reversal to the downside finish to the day.
Silver closed the Wednesday trading session in New York at $33.31 spot...down 17 cents from Tuesday's close. Silver's volume was an astounding 73,000 contracts.
For obvious reasons, platinum did very well for itself yesterday, rallying strongly right from the London open. This lasted until just before the 12 o'clock noon lunch hour BST, before a thoughtful seller peeled about one percent off a price that was about to go parabolic. From there it traded sideways for the rest of the day, finishing up a hair over $40 by the close of trading...but would have done better if left to its own devices.
The dollar index opened at 79.90 on Tuesday night...and drifted slowly lower, hitting its nadir of 79.55 at 11:30 a.m. in London yesterday morning. Ninety minutes after the low was set, the index had gained back half its loss...and then traded flat into the 5:30 p.m. New York close. The dollar index closed down about 20 basis points...and at no time was a factor in the shenanigans that went on in the precious metal markets.
The gold shares sold off in sympathy with the price during the first hour or so of trading yesterday...and the low was in around 10:40 a.m. Eastern time. From there, the gold stocks recovered strongly...and were up well over a percent by shortly before 2:00 p.m. Eastern time. Then a thoughtful seller showed up and sold the stocks down about 1.5% in less than fifteen minutes. From there the stocks more or less traded sideways into the close...and the HUI finished up 0.44%.
Considering the pounding that silver took, the shares [for the most part] finished strongly...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index actually closed up 0.61%.
(Click on image to enlarge)
The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that only 18 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Friday within the Comex-approved depository system. Nothing to see here.
Both GLD and SLV showed withdrawals by authorized participants yesterday. There was 119,649 ounces taken out of GLD...and 387,575 troy ounces removed from SLV.
Switzerland's Zürcher Kantonalbank provided an update of their gold and silver ETFs as of the close of business on Monday, September 12th. Since August 30th, they added 57,401 troy ounces of gold...and a smallish 2,315 troy ounces of silver.
Well, the new short interest numbers were posted over at the shortsqueeze.com Internet site late last night...and the silver number was a big surprise. It also confirmed Ted Butler's worst fear. It showed that during the last two weeks of August, there was a 4.16% decline in SLV's short interest, which now stands at 13,129,800 shares/ounces.
During that two week period, the price of silver rose by about $3.50...give or take...and silver should have been pouring into SLV...just like gold was pouring into GLD during the same period. But it wasn't. During that approximate time period, the amount of silver in SLV actually declined by several million ounces. When the authorized participants don't have the metal to add to SLV, they short the shares in lieu of that until they're in a position to deliver the metal. Then they reverse that transaction. Not only did the authorized participants not add metal, they didn't short the shares in lieu of, either...as the SLV short position declined over that 2-week reporting period, when it should have risen substantially. So what the #%@& is going on?
All I can tell you is that Ted Butler, in his September 5th commentary to his paying subscribers, mentioned the fact that..."The short position on stocks come from a source that I'm uncomfortable with...the Depository Trust Clearing Corporation...or the DTCC." Did JPMorgan whisper in their ear? If that's the case, we've sunk to a new low in the silver price management scheme. Without doubt, I'm sure that he'll be writing about that very thing in his special commentary later today.
Not that I want to second guess what Ted might do, but it's my opinion that whatever he writes on this issue, will be posted in the public domain in short order.
GLD's short position declined by 18.95% which, considering the huge rally in the gold price...combined with the large amount of gold that poured into the fund during that 2-week period, is no surprise to me...and was expected. GLD's short position now stands at 14,970,500 shares, or 1.50 million ounces...46.56 tonnes.
There was no sales report from the U.S. Mint.
Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Tuesday, they reported receiving 841,080 troy ounces of silver...and shipped 331,479 ounces out the door. The link to that action is here.
Here's a chart that Washington state reader S.A. sent my way yesterday afternoon...and it doesn't require any further embellishment from me. As I said back in February of 2007...call me in 2013 and we'll talk about a bottom in the U.S. residential real estate market.
Despite my best efforts, I have the usual number of stories for you today...and I hope you can find the time to read the ones that interest you.
The income gap between rich and poor Americans grew to the widest in more than 40 years in 2011 as the poverty rate remained at almost a two-decade high.
The U.S. Census Bureau released figures yesterday that showed median household income fell, underscoring a sputtering economic recovery and struggling middle-class that are at the center of the presidential campaign.
The proportion of people living in poverty was 15 percent in 2011, little changed from 15.1 percent in 2010, while median household income dropped 1.5 percent. The 46.2 million people living in poverty remained at the highest level in the 53 years since the Census Bureau has been collecting that statistic.
Today's first story was posted on the Bloomberg Internet site early yesterday afternoon Eastern time...and I thank Manitoba reader Ulrike Marx for sending it. The link is here.
A ruling in the case of failed futures brokerage Sentinel Management Group could make it more difficult for customers to recoup money lost in the much larger collapse of MF Global, according to Sentinel's bankruptcy trustee.
A federal appeals court on Thursday upheld a ruling that puts Bank of New York Mellon ahead of former customers of Sentinel in the line of those seeking the return of money lost in the 2007 failure of the suburban Chicago-based futures broker.
The appeals court affirmed an earlier district court ruling that the bank had a "secured position" on a $312 million loan it gave to Sentinel, which turned out to have been secured by customer money.
Futures brokers are required to keep customers' funds in dedicated accounts to protect them from being used for anything other than client business.
This Reuters story was posted on their website this past Sunday...and I thank Roy Stephens for digging it up on our behalf. It's a short read...and the link is here.
Wall Street has plenty of worries heading into autumn: the stability of the euro zone, persistent United States unemployment and the historically volatile October stock market...and Goldman Sachs has an additional concern: Greg Smith’s book.
Mr. Smith’s memoir, “Why I Left Goldman Sachs,” is set for publication on Oct. 22. The release date comes just seven months after Mr. Smith publicly resigned from the bank with an Op-Ed page article in The New York Times that detailed his disappointment with Goldman’s business practices that reflected, more broadly, a corrosive culture at the nation’s largest banks.
The article struck a nerve. Within 24 hours, it had more than three million views online. Publishers clamored for the rights to a book. Grand Central Publishing, a division of the Hachette Book Group, secured a deal, offering Mr. Smith an advance of close to $1.5 million, according to people with direct knowledge of the negotiations.
Its depiction as a blood sucking “vampire squid” in a Rolling Stone article captured the public’s imagination, helping to make Goldman a symbol of Wall Street’s dark side.
I would suggest that Mr. Smith's book will do rather well...and it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Matt Taibbi wrote the introduction. If he didn't do that, I'm sure he'll have something to say about it when it does hit the book stores. This story appeared on The New York Times website early yesterday afternoon as well...and I thank Washington state reader S.A. for bringing it to our attention. The link is here.
Bradley C. Birkenfeld, a former banker at UBS, recently served two and a half years in prison for conspiring with a wealthy California developer to evade United States income taxes.
But Mr. Birkenfeld, 47, has a lot to show for his time and effort: The Internal Revenue Service acknowledged on Tuesday that information he had provided was so helpful that he would receive a $104 million whistle-blower award for revealing the secrets of the Swiss banking system.
By divulging the schemes that UBS used to encourage American citizens to dodge their taxes, Mr. Birkenfeld led to an investigation that has greatly diminished Switzerland’s status as a secret haven for American tax cheats and allowed the Treasury to recover billions in unpaid taxes.
For all U.S. citizens with something to hide from the taxman...this falls into the must read category. It was posted over at the nytimes.com Internet site on Tuesday...and I thank Donald Sinclair for sending it. The link is here.
G. Edward Griffin works tirelessly to dispel the notion that the Fed has been a failure. His latest effort was at the just-concluded Casey Research/Sprott Inc. investor summit on Navigating the Politicized Economy, where he told a packed hall that the Fed has been wildly successful at its true mission - to protect the banking system at all costs. According to Griffin, the problem is the American people are footing the bill for these costs through stealth taxation, thanks to the coordinated actions of the Fed and US government.
If you haven't read Ed Griffin's book "The Creature From Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve"...you should consider yourself uneducated. If I had to pick one book that changed my life forever...this would be the one. You owe it to you, to read it. The link to this 25:50 minute video interview with Ed Griffin is imbedded in yesterday's edition of Conversations with Casey...and is linked here...and is a must watch for sure.
In a historically significant signal for the euro rescue, the German Federal Constitutional Court on Wednesday ruled there are no grounds to stop the country from ratifying the European Stability Mechanism, the permanent euro bailout fund, and the fiscal pact aimed at bringing economic governance to countries in the euro zone. The decision bolstered stock markets in Europe and around the world and also strengthened the euro. However, the justices at the Karslruhe-based court also expressed some reservations.
The court ordered that ratification can only be completed if it is ensured under international law that Germany's current maximum liability of €190 billion ($245 billion) can only be increased with the approval of the German representative in the ESM board, court President Andreas Vosskuhle said. "(No) provision of this treaty may be interpreted in a way that establishes higher payment obligations for the Federal Republic of Germany without the agreement of the German representative," the court states.
This also means that Germany's federal parliament, the Bundestag, must play the leading role in important decisions. Under a German law accompanying the ratification of the ESM treaty, the German parliament must first vote on the positions taken by the German representative in the ESM board before they can act on them. However, it is still unclear at this point whether decisions will require a vote of the full parliament or the significantly smaller budget committee.
This is the first of two stories that I have on this topic. The first is from the German website spiegel.de early yesterday morning...and I thank Ulrike Marx for sending it. The link is here.
Markets breathed a sigh of relief across the world after the Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe ruled that the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and the EU’s Fiscal Compact are compatible with the country’s Basic Law. The euro surged to a four-month high of €1.29 to the dollar.
The European Parliament leapt to its feet in thunderous applause as the news came through, the verdict removing the final hurdle blocking deployment of the €500bn (£397bn) bail-out fund and consummating Europe’s grand plan to hold monetary union together.
Yet it was a double-edged ruling, with plenty of cheer for the 37,000 citizens who had filed complaints in an outpouring of civic protest, including the neo-Marxist Left Party, the More Democracy movement and a core of eurosceptic professors.
In keeping with rulings on the Lisbon Treaty and earlier rescues, the eight judges issued a “Yes, but” verdict, imposing constraints that greatly reduce Berlin’s room for manoeuvre in the future.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has at it in this longish article posted on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site at 8:34 p.m. BST last evening. This story is also courtesy of Ulrike Marx...and it's certainly worth reading. The link is here.
Few problems in economics are genuinely new. Virtually every scenario you care to think of has been played out before in some shape or form. Thus it is with the eurozone debt crisis, which has some striking parallels with the debacle of Britain’s entanglement with the European exchange rate mechanism back in the early Nineties.
Today’s crisis is of course infinitely more complex, intractable and serious, but it shares many of the same characteristics. The central issue – that it is next to impossible to maintain a currency union with Germany unless wholly aligned to the German economic cycle – hasn’t changed.
Frog marching other, structurally very different, European economies towards the imagined prize of German monetary and fiscal discipline is again proving a monumentally destructive process. Britain learnt its lesson early. Others were not so lucky. The consequences of Europe’s folly will echo for generations.
It was 20 years ago this weekend that Britain was forced out of the ERM. At the time, British membership was widely seen to have been a disaster. Certainly, it was a catastrophe for the then Conservative government. Britain’s ignominious exit branded the Conservative hierarchy as economically incompetent, a reputation that was to live with them for much of the next two decades. Associated infighting over Europe confirmed the perception of a party that was unfit to rule.
This is another story from The Telegraph's website yesterday evening...and I thank Roy Stephens for sending it along. The link is here.
The unfolding catastrophe in the euro zone has not been great for the British economy. It has hit exports to its largest and closest market. It had dented business confidence, slowed investment into the whole of Europe, and undermined faith in banks that already weren’t looking too healthy.
But in one important respect it has been a blessing. It has distracted attention from the dire state of the U.K.’s own economy. When one house is burning down, it is easy not to notice that the one next door has dry rot, weeds on the driveway, and a few holes in the roof where the slates used to be.
But Britain’s troubles may not be invisible to the markets much longer.
As growth stalls, the deficit rises, and government borrowing ticks relentlessly higher, it is inconceivable that the U.K. can remain in the small group of triple-A rated countries much longer. It is now simply a matter of time before one of the big agencies gets around to cutting the rating.
This marketwatch.com story was filed from London just after midnight Eastern time on Wednesday...and I thank Roy Stephens for his second offering in a row. The link is here.
Iran is using a little-known port off the East Malaysia coast to hide millions of barrels of oil from Western sanctions, according to shipping data, industry sources and officials.
A Reuters examination of shipping movements and interviews shows how Iranian crude is shipped to the area and loaded on to empty vessels at night to await potential Asian buyers. Storing the oil on hired tankers operating under the Panamanian flag in the calm waters off the tax-haven port of Labuan - an offshore financial centre about the size of Manhattan - means Iran can keep its own fleet active and ensure the flow of oil money into its struggling economy.
At least two large oil tankers have been unloaded this way in recent weeks and several more Iranian vessels were steaming towards Asia, according to Reuters Freight Fundamentals, which tracks the movement of the global tanker fleet. One was destined for a Chinese port, while three others, carrying as much as 6 million barrels of crude or fuel oil, were sailing to unknown destinations.
While not illegal, the dead-of-night transfer of oil in the South China Sea illustrates the lengths to which Iran will go to keep exporting its oil to skirt Western sanctions aimed at pressuring Tehran's suspected pursuit of nuclear weapons. A European Union oil embargo has virtually halted access around the world to insurance for Iranian crude and oil products.
This very interesting Reuters story was filed from Labuan, Malaysia early yesterday evening Eastern Daylight Time. Its worth reading...and I thank Roy for his third and final offering in today's column. The link is here.
The first blog is with Rob Arnott...and it's headlined "Major Defaults, German Court Decision & Inflation". The second blog is with Dr. Stephen Leeb. It's entitled "$150 Silver & an Ocean of Paper Money to Flood the System". And lastly is this blog with "Mish" Shedlock. It bears the headline "Global Economic Plunge, Money Creation & Soaring Gold".
Ten days ago, when describing the latest casualty of the ongoing South African miner revolution, we said: "Expect more South African mines to shutter, as gold production in the world's third largest gold producer grinds to a halt, and the local workers grasp they had the leverage all along.
Should the South African example spread to other countries, then expect the price of gold to soar regardless of how much printing the central planners engage in the coming weeks and month."
Fast forward to today: "Labour unrest sweeping across South Africa's mining sector hit top world platinum producer Anglo American Platinum on Wednesday, with striking miners blockading roads leading to shafts belonging to the mining giant, police said.
This must read zerohedge.com story from yesterday morning was sent to me by reader Marshall Angeles...and the link is here.
Anglo American Platinum Ltd., the largest producer of the metal, halted its Rustenburg operations as labor turmoil in South Africa’s mining industry disrupted gold and platinum mines.
“In light of the current volatile situation in the Rustenburg area, where our employees, who want to go to work, are being prevented from doing so and are being intimidated by the threat of violence, Anglo American Platinum has decided to suspend its operations” with immediate effect, Chief Executive Officer Chris Griffith said today in a statement. The halt will last until work can safely resume, he said.
The company diverted about 3,000 employees from its mines in the area to an undisclosed “neutral place” for their safety, Mpumi Sithole, a spokeswoman for the Johannesburg-based company known as Amplats, said by mobile phone. They were released at noon after being briefed by management, she said.
This Bloomberg story was filed from Johannesburg late yesterday morning local time...and I thank Ulrike Marx for her final offering in today's column. It's certainly worth the read...and the link is here.
Casey Research's Senior Precious Metals Analyst, Jeff Clark, had a short commentary about gold posted on the CR website yesterday afternoon. It's certainly worth reading...and I thank reader Peter Handley for sending it our way. The link is here.
Ed,
I read your Gold & Silver Daily letter every day.
I heard this interview with CME trader Michael Gurka on CNBC this morning. Some interesting tidbits on silver. Start listening around the 2:55 mark. Gurka mentions the "stealth move" in silver - the current move from $26 to $34. Kernen asks him why the move up - QE? Gurka comes back with a "short squeeze up to a $100" comment.
This might be the first public mainstream media hint that JPMorgan is in deep trouble with its massive short silver position. Some of the guys I read believe JPM short position is fix'n to blow, which would make for a massive move up as JPM is forced to cover.
This video is a must watch...and I thank reader J.P. for sharing it with us. The link is here.
Some very curious thoughts ahead of tomorrow's FOMC announcement from none other than Citigroup...
In addition, we are struck by the somewhat skeptical reaction of investors and colleagues to the Fed’s analysis of the benefits from past rounds of QE. In particular the Fed’s benefit calculation explicitly assumes that the level of stimulus is a function of the size of the Fed’s balance sheet, so keeping the Fed’s balance sheet fixed would not result in any diminution of stimulus. Most clients and traders feel that rates would back up significantly if the Fed were to stop expanding the balance sheet. In that world, subsequent rounds of QE just keep rates where they are rather than lower them and the cumulative benefits are much less pronounced. There is a strong view in markets that 1) the Fed have to do a big QE, given the expectations that have been built up, and 2) the added liquidity will have a marginal effect. Taken together this raises the risk that the assets that will benefit are those sensitive to liquidity, such as money substitutes and Treasuries, rather than assets that are sensitive to real business cycle expansion.
More importantly, let's recall that "money substitutes" = gold. So... Citi basically said that tomorrow Ben Bernanke is about to (again) become a goldbug's best friend.
This story was posted over on the Zero Hedge website early yesterday afternoon...and I thank Washington state reader S.A. for bringing it to my attention...and now to yours. The link is here.
Ray Dalio, one of the most successful hedge fund managers of all time, spoke with CNBC's Maria Bartiromo at the Council on Foreign Relations yesterday morning.
The hedge fund god made some interesting comments on gold.
"Gold is a currency. Throughout the history, I won't tell you in length, money was like a check in a checkbook and what you would do was get your gold and gold was like a medium. So gold is one of the currencies-- We have dollars, we have euros, we have yen and we have gold.
To this, Bartiromo asked if he owns gold.
"Oh yeah. I do. I think anybody, look let's be clear, that I think anybody who doesn't have...There's no sensible reason not to have some. If you're going to own a currency, it's not sensible not to own gold. Now it depends on the amount of gold. But if you don't own, I don't know 10%, if you don't have that and that depends on the world, then there's no sensible reason other than you don't know history and you don't know the economics of it.
This businessinsider.com story from yesterday contains a partial transcript of the 1:07 hour video interview. The link to the story...and the embedded interview is here. I haven't had the time to watch it, but from the transcript, I'd guess it's more than worth it. I thank Nick Laird for finding this important story.
Global commodities strategist Don Coxe declares now "is the best climate I have ever seen for an increase in gold prices."
During an address to Denver Gold Forum conference, Coxe urged fund managers, mining analysts, and mining executives to prepare for significantly higher gold prices and higher gold mining stock valuations.
He believes a "lustrous" rally in gold mining stocks will happen before a year passes. "The opportunities ahead are the best I've seen," Coxe declared.
Although Coxe admitted the stock market could be better for junior mining and exploration companies, he feels a new gold rush is ahead for investment in gold mining stocks.
This very short mineweb.com article was filed from Reno, Nevada yesterday...and is a must read in my opinion. I thank reader Neil West for contributing the final story in today's column...and the link is here.
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According to government data for positions held as of September 4, 2012, I calculate JPM to be short 130 million ounces (26,000 COMEX futures contracts). That’s up from the 70 million ounces JPMorgan held two months ago. 130 million ounces is more than any country produces for an entire year and four times what the U.S. mines annually. It is such a large amount of silver that silver would have traded above $50 recently had not JPMorgan sold short an additional 60 million ounces since July. There can be no argument that the short sale of 60 million ounces in less than two months by one entity would exert significant downward pressure on the price. - Silver analyst Ted Butler, 12 September 2012
Well, it was a wild and woolly day yesterday...and it was obvious that with the exception of platinum in the early going, gold and silver were mostly in lock-down...especially in early London trading when the decision came out from the German court. I've never seen volume explode as quickly as that. It obviously wasn't short covering, so it had to be the bullion banks going short against all comers...and it's most unfortunate that this volume activity won't be in tomorrow's Commitment of Traders Report.
And there was nothing free-market about that 20-minute engineered price decline in silver yesterday morning, either.
What I was happy to see, was the quick recovery in both metals...and by the end of the day, both gold and silver were almost back to their Tuesday closing prices. Ted Butler was wondering out loud if what we saw yesterday was the beginning of a price correction...or not. We'll find out soon enough I would think
We get the announcement from the FOMC meeting early this afternoon...and it will be equally as interesting to see how the precious metals react...or are allowed to react, in the wake of whatever news comes forth from Bernanke & Co.
The precious metals market is so distorted and twisted out of shape, it's impossible to tell what may, or may not, happen next...especially considering the dominant position that JPMorgan et al hold in both gold and silver...but especially silver. I, for one, don't have a clue as to how this is going to turn out in the very short term, but the long term is not in doubt. This price management scheme isn't going to last forever...and it has now become obvious to a lot of people...and the comments by CME trader Michael Gurka in that CNBC video clip in the 'Critical Reads' section, proves that point nicely. If he's talking about it on CNBC, you can bet that there are lots of wheels turning on this that we know nothing about. So the forces going on under the surface are certainly there, it's just that we can't see them. But once in a while we get a clue that they exist.
The other news item that really caught my attention was this Ray Dalio fellow, whom I'd never heard of before. But when he started talking about gold inside the 'hallowed' halls of CFR...then that's another thing that should make you stand up and take notice. And if you know nothing about the Council on Foreign Relations, you'll find out all about it when you read Ed Griffin's book "The Creature From Jekyll Island".
In Far East and early London trading, the price action in both silver and gold was fairly quiet...a far cry from what it was on Wednesday morning. I would guess that all and sundry are waiting for whatever Ben Bernanke has to say. Trading volume at the 8:00 a.m. BST London open are precisely what they were this time on Wednesday morning...around 4,600 contracts in silver and 12,000 in gold. The dollar index is down a hair.
And as I hit the 'send' button a bit more than two hours into the London trading day, volumes are up substanitally, even though prices aren't doing a lot...and the dollar index is still down a hair.
Like you, I await the word from the FOMC meeting...and we'll see what develops from there.
See you on Friday...Saturday west of the International Date Line.