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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Bron Suchecki: How Much Gold Does China Have?

"It will be interesting to see how high this dollar index rally goes...as it is as much oversold as the precious metals are overbought."

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

It was an uneventful day in the gold market on Wednesday. The price dipped a bit in the early going in Far East trading...and the high of the day [such as it was] came just a few minutes before the London open.

From there it got sold back to unchanged by the New York open...and traded sideways into the close from there.

Gold closed the day at $1,769.70 spot...down $1.40 from Tuesday. Volume was an immense 171, 000 contracts...mostly of the high-frequency trading variety one would think.

The silver price action followed just about the same price path as gold, but with a bit more 'volatility' attached to the price movements. Silver's high tick of the day also came shortly before the London open...and the low tick came about ten minutes after the Comex open.

Silver finished the Tuesday session at $34.57 spot...down 21 cents on the day. Volume was quite a bit lighter than Tuesday, but still a very chunky 45,000 contracts.

The dollar index closed at 79.11...down about 10 basis points on the day...but not after it rose over 30 basis points between 7:00 a.m. in London and 8:00 a.m. in New York...and then fell 35 basis points between 8:00 a.m. and 12:30 p.m. Eastern time.

It's low at that time was 79.02...before it recovered a hair into the close.

After a brief foray into negative territory around the London p.m. gold fix, the gold stocks rose into positive territory...and remained there for the rest of the trading session. The HUI finished up 0.82%.

Here's the 5-day HUI chart. The big jump on September 13th corresponded with Bernanke and Co.'s QE3 announcement...and as you can see, it's been pretty quiet since the gap up last Friday morning at the open.

Despite the negative close, the silver stocks turned in another decent performance yesterday as well. Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed up 0.65%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 13 gold and 3 silver contracts were posted for delivery within the Comex-approved depository system on Friday. As of this mornings' preliminary report from the CME, there are still 480 silver contracts open for September...and it will be of interest to see how many stand for delivery between now and the end of trading next Thursday, which is the last delivery day in the September contract.

The GLD ETF reported that an authorized participant deposited 67,865 troy ounces of gold yesterday...and there were no reported changes in SLV.

There was another smallish sales report from the U.S. Mint. They sold 6,000 ounces of gold eagles...500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 57,000 silver eagles.

Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Tuesday, they reported receiving 967,760 troy ounces of silver...and only shipped 75,396 ounces of the stuff out the door. The link to that action is here.

Yesterday's story about the 10 oz. gold bar filled with tungsten showing up at a Manhattan bullion dealer drew this incredible response from Washington state reader Vincent Youngs that is definitely worth sharing....and here it is.

"I'm surprised that the jeweler drilled his bars without first using an ultrasonic thickness guage to test them. People dealing in precious metals should know how to do this. I'm [astonished] that this effective method of detecting counterfeits remains relatively obscure and unknown. Maybe you should pass this information on to your readers. Here's a web page and a youtube.com video which explains it. I have one of these gauges...and it works exactly as they describe. These gauges can be bought for a few hundred dollars." [The link to purchase the gauge shown in the video is here. - Ed]

I thank Vincent on behalf of the entire precious metals industry...so pass it on!

I have the usual number of stories again today...and the final edit is up to you.

¤ Critical Reads

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FedEx Cuts 2013 Forecast as Economy Pinches Premium Shipping

FedEx Corp., operator of the world’s largest cargo airline, cut its annual profit outlook as a weakening economy spurs shippers in the U.S. and overseas to switch to cheaper delivery options.

FedEx, an economic bellwether because it ships goods from financial documents to electronics, pared its forecast for U.S. expansion next year to 1.9 percent from a June prediction of 2.4 percent. It trimmed its forecast for global growth this year and next to 2.3 percent and 2.7 percent, down from 2.4 percent and 3 percent, respectively.

“Fundamentally what’s happening is that exports around the world have contracted and the policy choices in Europe, the U.S. and China are having an effect on global trade,” Chief Executive Officer Fred Smith said on a conference call. “Over the last few months, exports and trade have gone down at a faster rate than GDP has.”

This Bloomberg story was reprinted in the San Francisco Chronicle on Tuesday...and I lifted it from yesterday's edition of the King Report. The link is here.

AMR expects about 4,400 job cuts, warns 11,000

American Airlines is sending layoff warning notices to more than 11,000 employees although a spokesman says the company expects job losses to be closer to 4,400.

The notices went out to mechanics and ground workers whose jobs will be affected as American goes through a bankruptcy restructuring.

American Airlines spokesman Bruce Hicks said Tuesday that fewer than 40 percent of those getting notices will lose their jobs. Hicks said federal law requires the company to notify anyone whose position could change, including those who could get "bumped" by more-senior employees whose jobs are eliminated or outsourced.

American said in February that it planned to cut 14,000 jobs, including 13,000 held by union workers. But if Hicks is right, the final job losses will be about a third of that.

This AP story showed up on the website of The Wall Street Journal early on Tuesday evening...and I thank Scott Pluschau for sending it our way. The link is here.

One big order, thousands of small ones, seen behind oil tumble

A single large sell order in the benchmark European Brent oil market, followed by an abrupt U-turn among high-frequency traders, may have caused one of the most abrupt price routs ever, brokers and analysts said on Tuesday.

As the dust settled on Monday's four-minute, nearly $4 plunge, other possible causes such as an erroneous "fat finger" trade, a computer program run amok or a broad, rumor-driven sell-off were set aside in favor of a combination of one big trade - potentially as much as 12 million barrels worth some $1.4 billion - and tens of thousands of computerized orders.

"There was most likely a large fundamental seller in the market yesterday," said Eric Scott Hunsader, Chief Executive of Nanex, a trading consultancy that regularly conducts detailed forensic analysis of erratic market activity.

But assuming a single seller got the ball rolling lower, it was algorithmic traders that almost certainly extended and intensified the decline, causing a 20-fold spike in volume as risk limits or automated price triggers fueled selling.

Silver analyst Ted Butler had this to say about it in his mid-week commentary yesterday..."This week Commissioner O'Malia promised that the Commission was looking into the 4% price decline in oil. A decline in oil of 4% gets same-day comment...35% down in silver is not worthy of any comment." West Virginia reader Elliot Simont sent me this must read Reuters piece yesterday...and the link is here.

Saudi Arabia ready to step up oil production to counter price spike

Saudi Arabia has signalled it is prepared to step up oil production to prevent the price of crude hurting the fragile global economy.

An official told reporters in Dubai that Saudi is pumping about 10m barrels of oil a day, slightly up from last month, and will do more if customers want it.

Although the price of crude has fallen so far this year, prices have spiked almost 20pc in the past three months amid escalating fears of a showdown over Iran's nuclear programme.

Saudi's oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, said last week that current prices are not justified by the mix of supply and demand.

This story appeared on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site late on Tuesday evening...and I thank Donald Sinclair for finding it for us. The link is here.

Greece sells off London consulate and royal cemetery

The debt-laden nation is selling its 10,000 square foot consular residence in London's Holland Park. Estate agent Marsh & Parsons recently sold a 4,000 sq ft house in nearby Clarendon Rd for £12m, and homes similar to the 115-year-old townhouse currently attract rents of around £25,000 per week

Also up for sale is the partially-ruined Palace of Tatoi, 16 miles from Athens, which was home to the royal family prior to them being forced to flee the country in 1967. The property comes as part of an estate that includes 40 outbuildings, stables and the graves of several members of the royal family dating back to 1880.

Other lots will include an office building in Brussels, property in Belgrade, a home in Llubljana and land in Nicosia, Cyprus.

Last year Greece agreed to raise €50bn before 2020 by auctioning off assets including the state gas utility DEPA and gas distributor DESFA as part of conditions attached to its €240bn bail-out rescue. The country has even identified 40 uninhabited islands which it plans to lease out for as long as 50 years.

This story was posted on The Telegraph's website early yesterday evening...and I thank Roy Stephens for sending it along. The link is here.

Fear of Muslim Backlash: France to Shut Embassies Over Muhammad Cartoons

The French government said on Wednesday it would close French embassies and schools in some 20 countries on Friday, a holy day in the Muslim world, for fear of reprisals after satirical weekly Charlie Hebdo published cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad.

"Is it relevant and intelligent in this environment to add fuel to the fire? The answer is no," Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius told France Info radio. "I'm very worried ... and when I saw this I immediately issued instructions for special security precautions to be taken in all the countries where it could be a problem."

Issues of the magazine hit newsstands on Wednesday with the front cover showing an Orthodox Jew pushing a figure in a wheelchair wearing a turban. There were several caricatures of the Prophet on the inside pages, including some of him naked.

This story was posted on the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and I thank Roy Stephens once again. The link is here.

More QE coming, Bank of England minutes suggest

More money printing is likely within months despite signs that inflation is proving stickier than expected, economists said, after minutes from the Bank of England’s rate-setting meeting revealed that policymakers are poised to vote for further quantitative easing.

According to the minutes, “some ... members felt that additional stimulus was more likely than not to be needed in due course”. One committee member, believed to be David Miles, almost voted for more QE at the meeting, the minutes added. In the end the decision to leave rates on hold at 0.5pc and QE unchanged at £375bn was unanimous.

Economists expressed surprise that the support for more stimulus had been so strong, given that the minutes also carried a warning that inflation will fall more slowly than the Bank predicted in its quarterly forecast last month.

“The rise in oil prices and the probable increase in utility and some food prices meant that the near-term outlook was for a less rapid fall in inflation than the Committee had thought [in] August,” the minutes said. As a result, it warned “that the squeeze on real household incomes would not ease further in the short term”.

No surprises here, as it's "Print, or Die" time everywhere on Planet Earth. This story was posted on The Telegraph's website very late yesterday afternoon BST...and I thank Roy Stephens for his first offering in today's column. The link is here.

Money printing has only allowed governments to duck their problems

Forget QE3 in the US, or whatever round of quantitative easing we are now up to here in the UK; in Japan they are about to embark on QE7, or is that QE8 – it’s hard to keep up.

In the land of the setting sun, QE is now such an everyday part of the economic landscape that it would barely have warranted a mention, let alone an entire column, but for the fact that the latest dollop of “unconventional” policy action appears to be part of a co-ordinated, global response to the economic slowdown .

Like big deficits and mountainous public debt, in Japan, QE no longer generates the same agonised debate it does in the West. It just is. For Japan, the “unconventional” is now very much the conventional.

Well, now everyone’s up to it. Against the backdrop of weaker growth, central banks in advanced economies and emerging markets alike are all taking further steps to ease monetary policy. Never mind the G7 economies, since the start of the year the central banks of Brazil, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, Israel, Korea, the Philippines and South Africa have all lowered their policy rates. Japan is just part of a global phenomenon.

What also makes the Bank of Japan’s policy action of perhaps wider interest is that it occurs against the backdrop of renewed tension in the East China seas. The Chinese slowdown is proving a big enough headache for the Japanese economy but possible retaliatory action over the disputed Senkaku islands threatens much worse.

This is another offering from Roy Stephens...and it, too, was posted on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site late yesterday evening...and it's worth reading. The link is here.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard had something to say about this above subject in a short blog he posted on The Telegraph's Internet site last evening as well. It's headlined "Japan launches QE8 as 20-year slump drags on". Ulrike Marx sent it...and the link is here.

China, Japan and the world’s Agadir Crisis (1911)

The Senkaku/Diaoyu clash in the East China Sea is the paramount political and strategic story in the world today, although you would not know that from the scant and almost jocular coverage in the British and European press.

It is eerily familiar to anybody who has studied the escalating spat between Wilhelmine Germany and the Franco-British Entente in the lead-up to the First World War. The rise of a new global power is always fraught with risk, and usually mishandled by both sides.

If you think this is a storm in a teacup – the urbane reflex – listen more carefully to US defence secretary Leon Panetta, who warned that China and Japan risk provoking each other into war, drawing in other countries. He meant the US, of course.

This Ambrose Evans-Pritchard blog from yesterday is another must read...and I thank Roy Stephens once again. The link is here.

Doug Casey on Profiting from Government Stupidity

Shortly after the conclusion of the Casey Research/Sprott, Inc. Navigating the Politicized Economy investor summit, Louis James sat down with Doug Casey to assess the conference and provide insights on how investors can win in today's distorted marketplace.

This 15-minute video interview is certainly worth your time. It's contained in yesterday's edition of Conversations With Casey...and the link is here.

Three King World News Blogs

The first is with Jean Marie-Eveillard. It's headlined "Why Gold Is Heading Higher & Governments Can't Stop It". The next blog is with John Embry...and it's entitled "We're Witnessing an Historic & Frightening End Game". And lastly is this blog with John Gray from Investors Intelligence. It's headlined "Here is the Key to the Global Markets Right Now".

Vavi rushes off 'to prevent another Marikana'

Cosatu general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi has rushed out of the Cosatu congress to intervene in a wildcat strike at a Carletonville gold mine to try and prevent “another Marikana”.

On Wednesday afternoon, Vavi announced that he would leave with National Union of Mineworkers president Senzeni Zokwana to go to Gold Fields' Driefontein mine near Carletonville where management has obtained an interdict to fire 15 000 workers by tomorrow.

The workers have been on a wildcat strike for 10 days now for, among others, better wages.

Vavi told reporters: "We can't allow another Marikana situation to move from Impala [platinum] to gold. And that is why we feel we must take our chance to see if we can resolve this situation today."

This story was filed from Johannesburg yesterday afternoon local time...and was posted on the news24.com Internet site. I thank Manitoba reader Ulrike Marx for bringing it to our attention. The link is here.

$1 Silver Certificate Still Looking Pretty Sharp

In this age of debate about the value, or non-value, of the dollar, we've encountered a little something from the past that you probably don't see every day unless you're a currency collector -- a 1935 series U.S. dollar silver certificate.

Peter Gorenstein, executive producer for The Daily Ticker and Breakout, found one in his change. If you've not come across one of these in person before, you might at first think it's counterfeit, but it is real, and you can certainly buy things with it.

The promise on the old bill below George Washington's portrait that the certificate is equivalent to "One Dollar In Silver Payable To The Bearer On Demand." We know that some of our readers love the idea of investing in hard assets and of hard assets backing the U.S. currency. But despite what this dollar says, you can't get silver for it from the government. Your ability to redeem the certificates for silver with the U.S. Treasury came to an end in 1968.

This short, but very interesting story, was posted on the finance.yahoo.com Internet site yesterday...and I thank Scott Pluschau for finding it for us. It's worth reading...and the link is here.

A Ponzi Schemer Parts With His Silver

It was 2009, and silver prices were booming. After dropping to a multi-year low, prices soon skyrocketed as investors sought safety in a tumultuous economy. Yet most investors could only indirectly participate in the metal’s run, relegated to purchase securities of silver miners or exchange-traded funds tracking the price of silver. Then, in what sounded too good to be true, a South Carolina company offered investors the opportunity to cash in on the boom by purchasing actual silver bars that would then be kept in storage at a Delaware Depository. The company, Atlantic Bullion and Coin, Inc. and its owner, Ronnie Wilson, proceeded to take in approximately $65 million during the three-year period from January 2009 to February 2012, including $33 million alone from January 2011 to February 2012. Based on prevailing silver prices, this should have translated into the purchase of thousands of 100-ounce and 1000-ounce silver bars held in storage for investors.

However, as authorities would discover in early 2012, the operation was nothing more than a giant Ponzi scheme, with Wilson purchasing “woefully insufficient” quantities of silver and using investor funds to make Ponzi-style payments to create the appearance that the scheme was wildly successful. When Beattie Ashmore, the court-appointed receiver, took over operations in June 2012, he discovered that only eighty-five 1000-ounce silver bars had been purchased since 2009, and of that minimal quantity, only sixty-four bars remained. Additionally, contrary to Wilson’s representations, there was no evidence that he or AB&C had taken possession of any significant quantity of silver bars or that the bars were held in storage for specific clients. Instead, tens of millions of dollars were used for Wilson’s and his family’s personal and/or business interests.

This is old news, but it's interesting to see how it turned out when all was said and done. This Forbes story from Monday was sent to me by Nick Laird in the wee hours of this morning...and it's worth the read. The link is here. Do you know where your silver is, dear reader?

Reserve Bank of India Mulling Financial Products to Check Gold Imports

Concerned over rising gold imports, the Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday said it is planning to come out with financial products on the lines of gold ETFs to give options to investors to take advantage of price movement in the precious metal. "...We can provide people with financial attraction of gold without them having physically own it. That would in a sense reduce the pressure on imports. So ETFs are one such," RBI Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn told reporters on the sidelines of a PHD Chamber event in New Delhi.

Did he really say that? Ulrike Marx sent me this story...and as she said in her covering e-mail..."I mean, they're practically TELLING you that this is a scam!" And that, dear reader, is precisely what it is. I certainly hope that the good folks in India can see past this but, sadly, some of them won't.

This story was posted on the businessworld.in Internet site early on their Thursday morning. It's a must read...and the link is here.

Bron Suchecki: How Much Gold Does China Have?

On the 24th of April 2009, China announced that it had increased its gold reserves 75% from 600 tonnes to 1,054 tonnes. What made the announcement unusual was the six year gap in reporting, given the previous two changes were in December 2002 (99.2 tonnes added) and December 2001 (105.7 tonnes added).

In addition, the World Gold Council’s (WGC) quarterly gold reserves reports notes that the purchase of the 454 tonnes took place over the January 2003 to April 2009 period, so it wasn’t a one-off purchase. It is clear China moved from a regular reporting schedule to a more strategic approach.

It has now been 3½ years without any indication from China as to the size of their gold reserves. With imports of gold into China, and gold production within China, having increased significantly over the past few years it raises the question of how much gold has China been accumulating since 2009?

To answer that question, in this Perth Mint Treasury paper we will look at China’s gold mining and importing activities and estimate how much of that is held by the government versus privately.

Bron is the Analysis and Strategy Manager at The Perth Mint. He slid this into my in-box just before I hit the 'send' button on Wednesday's column...and I had no opportunity to go through it at the time, so it had to wait until today. It's a must read for sure...and the link to this 5-page report is here. It also contains a couple of new charts from Nick Laird.

¤ The Funnies

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Pelangio Exploration Inc. (PX:TSX-V; PGXPF:OTC) announced the results of seven diamond drill holes totaling 1,574 metres from its ongoing drilling program at the Pokukrom East zone on the Manfo Property in Ghana. Highlights of the results included:

· 1.19 g/t gold over 113 metres, including 9.05 g/t gold over 7 metres;
· 2.60 g/t gold over 64 metres, including 11.94 g/t gold over 10 metres; and
· 16.72 g/t gold over 4 metres.

The results continued to confirm a higher grade, shallow north plunging core of Pokukrom East zone with an open plunge of 600 metres from near surface in previously reported hole SPDD-088 (7.01 g/t gold over 19 metres) to 210 metres depth in the holes reported this week. Warren Bates, Senior Vice President Exploration, commented: “These are our best holes on the Manfo Property to date. These holes represent the north-plunging core of higher grade mineralization at Pokukrom East, now demonstrating an open plunge length of 600 metres.Please visit our website to learn more about the project and request additional information.



¤ The Wrap

The majority of us favor no change in the present role of gold. Yet, we are not prepared to rule out that an enlarged role for gold may emerge at some future date. If reasonable price stability and confidence in our currency are not restored in the years ahead, we believe those who advocate an immediate return to gold will grow in numbers and political influence. - U.S. Government Gold Commission Report, March 31, 1982

Well, it was just another day off the calendar, as nothing much happened from a price point of view. But it's obvious from the stories above, especially the new ones out about Japan that mention QE8, that the printing presses won't be turned off any time soon.

Both gold and silver were down a bit in late afternoon trading in Hong Kong on their Thursday. Looking at the dollar index with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, I see that the index has been in rally mode since the 12:30 p.m. Eastern time 79.02 low in New York early yesterday afternoon...and that rally accelerated starting around 10:00 a.m. Hong Kong time this morning...but appears to have topped out for the moment beginning at the 8:00 a.m. BST London open. Both metals are still down a bit, but rallying, as I hit the 'send' button at 5:07 a.m. Eastern time. Volumes are already heavy...and the dollar index is up about 28 basis points...about 15 basis points off its high.

It will be interesting to see how high this dollar index rally goes...as it is as much oversold as the precious metals are overbought. I still haven't forgotten about JPMorgan et al and their horrendous Comex short positions in all precious metals...but silver in particular...along with their corresponding short position in SLV. Unless they get over run...they're going to be looking to cover as many of these short positions as they can.

Here's the 6-month dollar index chart...

And the 6-month gold chart

(Click on image to enlarge)

This is the "in your ear" short-term scenario that I'm concerned about...and JPMorgan et al's track record is 100% in this department, with no exceptions.

But this is one of those times that all dips should be bought...and I'll be taking my own advice if or when this scenario finally plays out.

Before hitting the 'send' button...I'd just like to let you know that the MP3 audio recordings of the recent "Navigating the Politicized Economy Summit" just held in Carlsbad, California are now available for download.

The Presenters included: David Walker, former US Comptroller General • Dr. Lacy Hunt, former Senior Economist • Dallas Fed, Executive VP, HIMCO • Don Coxe, Global Strategy Advisor, BMO Financial Group • David Webb, hedge fund phenomenon, Origin Investments, AB • Dr. Thomas M. Barnett, former Senior Advisor, Office of the Secretary of Defense • G. Edward Griffin, author, The Creature from Jekyll Island • Bob Hoye, Chief Financial Strategist, Institutional Advisor • Peter Schweizer, Hoover Institute, author of Throw Them All Out • Doug Casey, contrarian speculator • Eric Sprott, Chairman, Sprott Asset Management ... and many others.

Attendees of the summit raved about being able to see an all-star cast like this at one investment conference. And you can listen to their advice – including the top stock picks of these resource giants – in the comfort of your own home on your 23-CD set.

The CDs...and/or the MP3 files...should keep you off the street for a little while...and if you have any interest whatsoever...you can click here for more details...and it costs nothing to look.

I hope your day goes well...and I'll see you here tomorrow.

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