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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Reflections on the Effects of War as Compared to the Effects of Fiat Money

"The price action on Tuesday looked suspiciously like the price action from last Friday."

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

The gold price didn't do much of anything during the Far East trading session...and the same came be said for the price in London trading as well.

But a rally of some significance developed the moment the Comex opened at 8:20 a.m. Eastern time. Within twenty minutes, a not-for-profit seller stepped in...and that was that. The high of the day came at that point...$1,776.70 spot.

From there, gold traded sideways until just before lunch in New York. Then a thoughtful seller came along and sold the price back down below the Comex open...and the price drifted a few dollars lower going into the 5:15 p.m. close of electronic trading...almost closing on its low of the day, which was $1,757.90 spot.

Gold finished the Tuesday trading session at $1,760.60 spot...down $3.90 on the day. Volume was pretty heavy at 165,000 contracts.

The silver price followed a similar path up until the London silver fix, which came at 12:00 p.m. BST...7:00 a.m. in New York. The rally that began there really took off at the Comex open, only to run into the same not-for-profit seller that gold did at precisely the same time. That was silver's high tick of the day...$34.60 spot...and it was all down hill from there.

Silver then followed the same price path as gold, along with the big sell off that began just before lunch Eastern time. Silver's low price tick [$33.59 spot] came shortly after 3:00 p.m...and it closed a bit off that low. Silver had an intraday price move of 99 cents.

Silver finished at $33.74 spot...down 23 cents. Volume was around 57,000 contracts.

The dollar index opened at 79.54 spot...and the index traded plus or minus 20 basis points of its open for the entire trading session...closing at 79.66...up 12 basis points on the day.

Looking at the chart, the rallies in gold and silver that started at precisely noon in London...7:00 a.m. in New York...and ending at 8:40 a.m. Eastern time, fit like a hand in a glove into the 27 basis point dollar index decline that occurred precisely during the same time period.

The same cannot be said for the big price declines in both metals that began shortly before lunch...and was all done by 12:30 p.m. Eastern time. The dollar index didn't do a thing during that period.

It was no surprise that the gold stocks gapped up about a percent at the open, but once the seller showed up shortly before lunch in New York, the stocks quickly followed suit...and the HUI finished on its low of the day for the second day in a row...down 1.53%.

The silver stocks declined as well, but didn't fare as badly as they did on Monday, as Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed down only 1.76%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME's Daily Delivery Report was a bit more subdued on Tuesday compared to Monday, as only 3 gold and 38 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Thursday. The short/issuer of all 38 contracts in silver was ABN Amro...and most of the stoppers were the "usual suspects". The link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers is here.

The GLD ETF took in another 145,415 troy ounces of gold...and there were no reported changes in SLV.

Well, the shortsqueeze.com Internet site update their short positions for GLD and SLV about midnight last night...and here's what they had to say. The short position in SLV increased, but only by 0.34%...from 13.13 million shares/ounces to 13.17 million shares/ounces. I was hoping for a substantial decrease, but that didn't happen. JPMorgan, along with a few other authorized participants, still owe SLV a lot of metal, although I would guess that the situation has improved since the middle of the month, which is the point that this updated report shows...as lots of silver has been added since then. However, we'll have to wait another few weeks to get the next update that covers all the recent additions to SLV.

The change in GLD was a bi of a shocker, as the short position jumped a massive 33.33%...from 14.97 million shares to 19.96 million shares. That increase represents 499,000 ounces of gold, but I would guess that this increase in short position has been pretty much eliminated since this report is already two weeks out of date...and there have been massive amounts of gold pouring into the fund since then...so I wouldn't be overly alarmed with what's shown here. It's already "yesterday's news" as Ted Butler would say.

I got so involved with the goings-on in both ETFs in this column yesterday, that I completely skipped over my daily report from the U.S. Mint...so I will make amends now.

On Monday, the mint reported selling 10,000 ounces of gold eagles...1,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and a very chunky 850,000 silver eagles. On Tuesday, the mint sold another 6,500 ounces of gold eagles, along with another 100,000 silver eagles.

Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Monday, they reported receiving 917,876 troy ounces of silver...and shipped out only one good delivery bar weighing 1,001.200 ounces. The link to that activity is here.

Here are a few charts from Nick Laird on gold that I thought you might find interesting. Long-time readers will recognized these charts...especially the first one. It's current as of the end of August 2012. The previous chart I kept posting was two and a half years out of date...and a lot changed during that time. It's titled "Intraday Average Gold Price Movements". It's a 5-year rolling average of gold prices based on 2-minute tick data that runs from September 2007 until the end of August 2012. All three of these charts deserve a few minutes of your time.

(Click on image to enlarge)

As you can see, there is a definite pattern to the gold price once you average out all the daily ups and downs over such a long period of time. As I've pointed out before, there are four critical data points here...two of which stand out like the proverbial sore thumbs. They are the London a.m. and London p.m. fixes...and the two other very noteworthy points are the high tick of the day which almost always occurs at the London open, which is 9:00 a.m. GMT on this chart...and the New York high tick which, on average, occurs at the 9:30 a.m. Eastern time open of the equity markets. I would like you to make careful note regarding the precise times of each of these four data points, as they never change from year to year...ever!

There are two different slopes to this 24-hour price chart...the downward price bias from the high at the London open to the London p.m. gold fix low...and the upward bias from the London p.m. fix until the London open the following day.

Theoretically speaking, if you bought the London a.m. fix on the first business day of 1970..and sold the London p.m. fix the same day...and did that for every business day for just about 43 years, your profit/loss profile would look like the chart below. Your initial $100 investment would be worth $13.48 at the close of trading on Monday, September 24, 2012. What the chart really shows is a negative London price bias. This began in January of 1975 and, with the odd exception, the general trend has been down every year since then. Even during the biggest bull market in gold the world has ever seen...the one going on right now...gold has been negative every single year between the London a.m. and the London p.m. fix, with no exception. One has to wonder how this is possible without price management. And the answer is...it isn't.

(Click on image to enlarge)

However...also theoretically...if you bought the 4:00 p.m. GMT London p.m. gold fix...10:00 a.m. in New York...and held that position through Far East trading and sold just before the London p.m. fix [the London open would have been better, but that's another story]...every day for the same 43 years...your profit/loss profile would look like the chart below. Your original $100 investment would have been worth $37,281 at the close of trading this past Monday.

(Click on image to enlarge)

As Nick Laird, who produced these wonderful charts, said in his covering e-mail..."The message is clear...don't #&$% with the LBMA".

I have the usual number of stories for a mid-week column...and I hope you can find the time to read the ones that interest you the most.

¤ Critical Reads

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Ex-Regulator Has Harsh Words for Bankers and Geithner

Sheila C. Bair, who tormented Wall Street and its Washington allies as a banking regulator, is taking a fresh swipe at her foes in retelling the dark days of the financial crisis.

In a book to be released on Tuesday, the former chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation takes aim at the bankers she blamed for the crisis. She also criticized fellow regulators, including current Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, for their response to the problems.

Ms. Bair painted Mr. Geithner, the former head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, as an apologist for Wall Street, opposing some post-crisis reforms. She questioned whether his effort to inject billions of dollars into nine big banks masked a rescue intended solely for Citigroup, a theory that other government officials have rejected.

“Participating in these programs was the most distasteful thing I have ever done in public life,” said Ms. Bair, in the book, “Bull By the Horns: Fighting to Save Main Street from Wall Street and Wall Street from Itself.”

This article, along with an embedded 9:37 minute video clip, was posted on The New York Times Internet site early yesterday morning...and I thank Phil Barlett for our first story of the day. The link is here.

Deadly Attack in Libya Was Major Blow to C.I.A. Efforts

The attack in Benghazi, Libya, that killed Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens and three other Americans has dealt the Central Intelligence Agency a major setback in its intelligence-gathering efforts at a time of increasing instability in the North African nation.

Among the more than two dozen American personnel evacuated from the city after the assault on the American mission and a nearby annex were about a dozen C.I.A. operatives and contractors, who played a crucial role in conducting surveillance and collecting information on an array of armed militant groups in and around the city.

“It’s a catastrophic intelligence loss,” said one American official who has served in Libya and who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the F.B.I. is still investigating the attack. “We got our eyes poked out.”

This is the second story in a row from The New York Times. This one was posted on their website on Sunday...and I borrowed it from yesterday's edition of the King Report. The link is here.

One Third Of Athens Businesses Shuttered

Two weeks ago we showed the human aspect of the absolute economic collapse in Greece (because depression is too light a word to describe what is happening in this globalist vassal colony) when charting Greek unemployment surging by 1% in one month to 24.4%, and which as of September is likely nearly 30%. What this means in practical tax revenue terms (if the tax collectors were actually doing their job collecting taxes, instead of striking) is that there is nobody generating any economic products and services, and thus no state revenues.

Today, Kathimerini confirms this, in a report that almost a third of all business in Athens have now shuttered: "The number of shuttered shops on the capital's busiest commercial streets, Panepistimiou and Stadiou, also hit a record high in August, reaching 34.7 percent on Panepistimiou and 42 percent on Akadimias, up 14 percent in the last six months."

And so the close loop continues as fewer businesses are around to hire less people, generating less state revenue, encouraging less businesses to open and so on, until the entire country collapses in a heap of worthless debt.

This story was posted over at the Zero Hedge website yesterday...and I thank Phil Barlett for his second offering in today's column. The link is here.

'Democracy kidnapped!' Madrid police fire rubber bullets as thousands surround Spanish Congress

Madrid riot police have cleared Plaza de Neptune of protesters, with about 200 officers securing the surrounding blocks. At least 60 people have been injured and 26 arrested as police used batons and rubber bullets to disperse the crowd.

­Local emergency services have confirmed that at least 60 people, including eight policemen, were injured in clashes between police and protesters, El Pais reports. One of the wounded is believed to be in critical condition, while one of the injured policemen suffered a severe concussion.

Riot police dispersed the protesters, dragging some who had tried to get through police lines by their arms and legs. An uneasy order was restored and reinforcements were brought in to try and disperse the crowd.

Lots of ugly photos and videos in this extensive Russia Today report that was filed on their website late yesterday afternoon Eastern time. It's Roy Stephens first offering in today's column...and the link is here.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Be Very Careful, Beloved Spain

Two weeks ago I was interviewed by the Catalan newspaper El Punt Avui. I said it would be unthinkable for the Spanish state to stop Catalan secession by military force.

Such action would violate EU Treaties and lead to Spain’s suspension from the European Union. You do not do such things in the early 21st Century...but I may have underestimated the vigour of the Spanish officer corps.

First we have the robust comments of Colonel Francisco Alaman comparing the crisis to 1936 and vowing to crush Catalan nationalists, described as "vultures".

"Independence for Catalonia? Over my dead body. Spain is not Yugoslavia or Belgium. Even if the lion is sleeping, don’t provoke the lion, because he will show the ferocity proven over centuries," he said.

This rather longish AE-S blog was posted on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site yesterday...and is certainly worth reading. I thank Roy Stephens for his second offering in today's column...and the link is here.

German business mood worsens for fifth straight month

German business sentiment dropped for a fifth straight month in September, raising fears of recession, as companies struggled with a bleaker economic outlook and the European Central Bank's bond buying plan failed to create much boardroom cheer.

Germany's relative resilience to the euro zone debt crisis has been steadily fraying as its firms see falling demand for their products from European partners and signs of a slowdown in other markets.

The European Central Bank's plan for potentially unlimited government bond-buying has raised hopes on financial markets of an end to the most acute phase of the crisis, but that optimism has not spread to the real economy.

This Reuters story, filed from Berlin on Monday, and posted on their Internet site at lunchtime in New York...is another little something that I borrowed from yesterday's edition of the King Report. The link is here.

Breaking the Banks: Switzerland Ponders a Future of Clean Money

The end of Switzerland's famous banking secrecy seems inevitable as US and German authorities crack down on tax evaders. Many Swiss are asking themselves whether their prosperity will survive if the country abandons its status as a tax haven. But some academics argue that the importance of the banking sector has been wildly exaggerated.

This Wednesday, the finance committee of the German parliament, the Bundestag, will continue a public hearing on Berlin's tax treaty with Switzerland. Under the agreement, the money held by German citizens in Swiss banks would be taxed retroactively, while allowing the account holders to remain anonymous. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble estimates that the change will bring in about €10 billion ($12.9 billion) in tax revenues.

But the Bundestag hasn't voted on the measure yet. The opposition center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) wants to block the treaty in the Bundesrat, the body that represents the German states at the federal level, arguing that it would be too advantageous for Switzerland and the tax evaders, because they could simply withdraw their previously untaxed funds in advance while remaining anonymous. The debate has brought the subject of Switzerland into the center of German domestic politics.

This article showed up on the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and I thank Roy Stephens for sending it along. The link is here.

RBS Managers Said to Condone Manipulation of Libor Rates

Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc managers condoned and participated in the manipulation of global interest rates, indicating that wrongdoing extended beyond the four traders the bank has fired.

In an instant-message conversation in late 2007, Jezri Mohideen, then the bank’s head of yen products in Singapore, instructed colleagues in the U.K. to lower RBS’s submission to the London interbank offered rate that day, according to two people with knowledge of the discussion. No reason was given in the message as to why he wanted a lower figure. The rate-setter agreed, submitting the number Mohideen sought, the people said.

Mohideen wasn’t alone. RBS traders and their managers routinely sought to influence the firm’s Libor submissions between 2007 and 2010 to profit from derivatives bets, according to employees, regulators and lawyers interviewed by Bloomberg News. Traders also communicated with counterparts at other firms to discuss where rates should be set, one person said.

This very long Bloomberg story was filed from London early yesterday morning...and posted on their Internet site at 9:15 a.m. Eastern time. I consider it a must read...and I thank Roy Stephens once again for sharing it with us. The link is here.

BBA agrees to be stripped of role in setting Libor

The British Bankers’ Association said it would agree with any recommendation by Martin Wheatley, the head of financial conduct at the Financial Services Authority, to hand over control of Libor to another body.

In a statement, the BBA said it had been co-operating with Mr Wheatley’s review of Libor ahead of the publication of his report on Friday.

“If Mr Wheatley’s recommendations include a change of responsibility for Libor, the BBA will support that,” it said.

The BBA has been heavily criticised for the way it has run Libor, although it has argued that it was not directly responsible for compiling the rate.

This is another story from The Telegraph...this one posted on their website late yesterday evening...and I thank Donald Sinclair for sending it. The link is here.

Bank reform has stalled, warns IMF

Financial regulators need to consider breaking up big banks to make the global economy safer, the International Monetary Fund said as it blasted the authorities for letting the reform programme stall and warned that the system remains “vulnerable and overly complex”.

Banks are as risky as they were before the financial crisis and are devising new ways of gaming the rules, the IMF warned in an analytical chapter of its Global Financial Stability Report.

To build a safer system, regulators need to “refine” policy further, including “a global-level discussion on the pros and cons for direct restrictions on certain business activities for banks, rather than just requiring them to hold more capital”, the IMF said.

It drew attention to the UK, where banks will have to ring-fence their retail operations to protect them from investment bank risks, and the US, which has barred casino-style proprietary trading. Both plans may herald a move to formal bank break ups, it said.

This story was also posted on the telegraph.co.uk website yesterday...and I thank Donald Sinclair for his second article in a row. The link is here.

Four King World News Blogs/Audio Interviews

The first blog is with Rick Rule...and it's headlined "This is Frightening & Destabilizing to the Financial System". Next is John Hathaway. It's entitled "Gold Shorts to Panic as This Key Level is Breached"...and it's a must read as well. The last blog is with Citi analyst Tom Fitzpatrick. It bears the title "What to Expect Next After the Recent Surge in Gold & Silver". The audio interview is with Nigel Farage.

On-going currency weakness makes gold's long-term future even brighter-Newmont CEO

"Currency is going to dictate the day for gold and that says gold is going to up," Newmont CEO Richard O'Brien told an international, record gathering of attendees at MINExpo International at the Las Vegas Convention Center Monday.

During a special CEO forum which was the opening session of MINExpo, O'Brien suggested gold was presently trading more like a currency than a commodity.

O'Brien told the audience that investment is the largest growing component of the gold market, currently comprising about 40% of the demand for gold. As more currencies weakens, such as the U.S. dollar and the Euro, O'Brien suggests the current bull market for gold will continue well into the future.

This story was posted on the mineweb.com Internet site yesterday...and is another contribution from Donald Sinclair. The link is here.

Mining, energy at risk as Chileans demand bigger share

Mining firms and energy producers are increasingly critical of President Sebastian Pinera's conservative government and warn of major output problems if regulatory issues are not resolved.

Chile is failing to take a firm hand in regulating its mining and energy industries, leaving billions of dollars' worth of projects exposed to the risk of lawsuits by local communities in the world's No. 1 copper producer.

The Andean country is banking on attracting $100 billion in mining investment and boosting annual copper output by more than 30 percent to over 7 million tonnes by 2020.

But the government faces mass protests as Chileans demand a bigger share of copper earnings, and some critics charge that a regulatory vacuum has emerged, allowing opposition groups to jeopardize approved plans for hydropower projects in Patagonia, thermoelectric plants across the country and major copper mines high in the Andes.

This longish Reuters story was filed from Santiago yesterday...and is posted over at the mineweb.com Internet site...and I thank Donald Sinclair for his second offering in a row. The link is here.

Should the U.S. Return to the Gold Standard? Jim Rickards vs. Matthew O’Brien

O'Brien is in way over his head here. Anyone stupid enough to debate the likes of Jim Rickards on a subject like this should know it advance that they're going to come out of the argument in second place...and Jim nails Matthew's hide to the shed in his usual way...with the facts of the case. But Jim does it with class.

I had breakfast with Jim in London at the GATA conference in August 2011...and Chris Powell and myself, plus one other were no match for him...individually or collectively. Not surprisingly, Chris Powell put in by far the best showing of the three of us.

This Bloomberg video interview is rather ancient...from August 30th...but reader Lou Horner dug it up for our viewing pleasure. It's a must watch...and the link is here.

Deutsche Bank: Here's How To Know When Gold Prices Are Too High

Is gold in a bubble? There's no question that it's been moving up pretty quickly in the past 10 years.

On the other hand, many analysts are still bullish, especially given the recent announcements of accommodative monetary policy from the world's three largest central banks.

Deutsche Bank sees $2000 gold soon. And Citi says it could go to $2500 in six months.

In a note to clients today, Deutsche Bank commodities analyst Michael Lewis explains how investors will know when the price of gold becomes truly excessive:

The gold price would need to move above USD 1,880/oz to represent an all time high in real terms. However, versus physical and financial assets, gold prices would need to rise to much higher levels to be considered excessive. Figure 1 examines the level of the gold price that would be considered extreme against a selection of indicators. On the seven measures we track, gold would need to hit USD 2,390/oz to reduce the purchasing power of an average G7 consumer to its lowest level on record. Moreover the gold price would need to hit USD 2,960/oz to represent an excessive valuation versus the S&P 500.

This story was posted on the businessinsider.com Internet site on Monday...and is typical of the main stream drivel you see coming from the banking establishment and the Pavlovian press that feeds on their every word. But the chart is worth the trip...and I thank Donald Sinclair for his last offering in today's column. The link is here.

Precious metal funds: Silver emerges from gold's shadow

Investors have pushed up gold and silver prices largely because they see the metals as a hedge against inflation and debasement of currencies.

Central banks in the United States, Europe and Japan recently announced bond purchases – essentially more money printing – to boost their struggling economies.

Silver looking like the new gold – at least in the short term.

Precious metals stocks have come to life recently after lagging bullion prices in recent years. And Sprott Silver Equities, the only mutual fund investing in silver securities in Canada, was shining the brightest with a stellar 35.6-per-cent gain over the seven weeks.

This story was posted on Canada's Globe and Mail website on Monday...and I thank Roy Stephens for his final offering in today's column as well. The link is here.

Donald Coxe: Obama Win Would Be Good for Gold

This 20:25 minute interview with BMO's Donald Coxe is worth listening to if you have the time. It was posted on the Kitco Internet site on September 20th. Look for it in the list of interviews on the right-hand side of the web page. I thank reader Neil West for bringing it to our attention...and the link is here.

Jeff Thomas: Manipulation of the gold price

A good summary of the Western gold price suppression scheme as construed by GATA has been written by Jeff Thomas of the International Man newsletter and financial advisory service. The essay stresses the use by bullion banks of "paper gold" to discourage investors from putting strains on the market by demanding real metal. But Thomas is confident that the scheme is being found out and is starting to unravel and will lead to a short squeeze and "mania" phase in gold's bull market.

Jeff starts his essay with this simple sentence..."There is much discussion these days as to whether the price of gold is being manipulated. The answer is simply "yes."

I borrowed the headline and the essay from a GATA release yesterday...but the first person through the door with this story was reader Michael Cheverton...and I thank him. Thomas' essay is headlined "Manipulation of the Gold Price" and it's posted at the International Man Internet site...and the link is here.

Reflections on the effects of War as compared to the effects of Fiat Money

Fiat money has destroyed humanity’s normal way of life; a way of life in which men and women could find their places and were thankful to have them. That old way of life is gone; the old attitudes toward life and work have been erased.

This is destruction many times worse than the worst destruction of any war. That is where we are today. This is what fiat money has brought to the world. Fiat money is the child of the arrogance of human intellect, which has sought to invalidate the laws of human nature which have regarded the precious metals as money for thousands of years, and sought to substitute an intellectual construct for the real thing. Now we are going to pay for that arrogance.

What now? Nobody knows. Unquestionably, we are headed straight into fearful problems never seen before. At least, owning physical gold and silver may be help some of us survive.

Hugo Salinas Price is at the top of his game in this essay posted at the plata.com.mx Internet site...and I thank reader U.D. for passing it along. The link is here.

¤ The Funnies

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¤ The Wrap

I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs. - Thomas Jefferson

The price action on Tuesday looked suspiciously like the price action from last Friday...a big rally at the Comex open, followed by a crushing waterfall decline later in the New York trading day. You pretty much have to have been born last night not to notice the fact that the precious metals want to rise strongly during the New York trading session, but there's always a not-for-profit seller there to make sure it never gets out of hand.

Yesterday, at the close of Comex trading, was the cut-off for this Friday's Commitment of Traders Report. Based on the price action during the reporting week just past, I expect some minor improvements in the Commercial net short position in both silver and gold when it comes out at 3:30 p.m. Eastern time.

We're down to the last few delivery days in the September delivery month...and there's not much outstanding in either gold or silver. A handful of contracts in both is my guess.

First day notice for delivery into the October month will be posted late on Thursday evening on the CME's website. It's not a big delivery month in either metal...and as of this moment there are only a few hundred contracts left open in October silver...and about 18,000 in gold, which is a fair chunk. But I would expect that a lot of those will disappear before the week is out.

Gold didn't do much in Far East or early London trading on their Wednesday. Silver made an attempt to break above the $34 price mark in mid-morning trading in Hong Kong...but that got turned back. Volume is pretty light in both metals as of 5:14 a.m. Eastern time...and the dollar index is up about 15 basis points. Nothing to see here.

But, as is mostly the case, all the real price action starts at the Comex open in New York...and I wouldn't be at all surprised if it turned out that way again today.

I hope your Wednesday goes well...and I'll see you here tomorrow.

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