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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Steve Forbes: Gold Can Save Us From Disaster

"We can also end up equally oversold as we have been overbought, but it's my opinion that a sell-off that severe is not in the cards"

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

There wasn't big price activity in the Far East...or during the London trading day on Tuesday. Gold was up five bucks by the Hong Kong lunch hour...and was down five bucks by the 10:30 a.m. BST London a.m. gold fix.

A smallish rally began from there...and that got capped shortly after the Comex open...and then a thoughtful seller showed up around 10:30 a.m. in New York...and sold gold down about fifteen bucks in less than an hour. That proved to be the low price tick of the day...$1,759.50 spot. The gold price recovered a bit from there...and that tiny rally lasted until about 12:20 p.m. before getting sold down again until 3:30 p.m in electronic trading...and then traded sideways into the 5:15 p.m. New York close.

The gold price closed down $11.60 to $1,763.90 spot. Volume was pretty decent at 144,000 contracts.

It was precisely the same story in silver...and the charts look almost identical...except the sell-off into the New York low was much more severe for silver than gold. So what else is new?

The silver price recovered smartly off its low, but that rally got chopped off at the knees at 12:20 p.m. Eastern time...and from there it traded sideways into the New York close. Silver's New York high and low price ticks were $34.21 and $33.44 spot respectively.

Silver closed at $33.90 spot...down 8 cents from Monday. Volume was very decent at 40,000 contracts.

The dollar index had a fairly sharp rally going into the London open...but that had little effect on the gold price. And neither did the rally between 8:30 and 9:30 a.m. in New York. But, for whatever reason, the rally between 10:30 a.m. and 11:40 a.m. had a huge effect on the gold price.

After that, the index was basically flat for the rest of the trading day. It's a bit of stretch to get the gold and silver price action to fit the antics of the dollar index yesterday.

The index did make it above the 80.00 mark for a while...but finished the day a hair below it at 79.99...up 38 basis points from Monday's close.

The gold stocks opened in positive territory...but began to head south after the gold price got smacked at 10:20 a.m. Eastern time. The stocks bottomed out around 11:15...and then began to develop a positive bias shortly after lunch in New York. That happy state of affairs lasted until 3:00 p.m. Eastern, when a thoughtful not-for-profit seller came in and sold off the gold stocks more than a percent in the last hour of trading...even though the gold price was trading ruler flat. The HUI closed on its low of the day...down 2.17%...and below the 500 mark on the index.

It was the same in the silver stocks. Even though silver only finished down 8 cents...the stocks got hit hard...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed down 2.52%. Most of the junior producers got clocked for more than that.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The Comex Daily Delivery Report showed that 3 gold and 62 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Thursday within the Comex-approved depositories. In silver, JPM issued 53 contracts...and the Bank of Nova Scotia stopped 52 contracts. I've always suspected that the Bank of Nova Scotia was complicit in this one way or another, as they were always the most active issuer and stopper after JPMorgan. And after what the CFTC announced on Friday, it's pretty much a certainty that they and JPMorgan run the silver price management scheme...with HSBC USA in a distant third place. The link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report is here.

There were no reported changes in either GLD or SLV...and no sales report from the U.S. Mint, either.

Switzerland's Zürcher Kantonalbank had an update to their gold and silver ETFs yesterday. They added 29,023 troy ounces of gold, but they reported that their silver ETF declined by 174,803 ounces.

There was big activity at the Comex-approved depositories on Monday. They reported receiving 1,298,253 troy ounces of silver, with almost the entire amount going into JPMorgan's depository, which is now up to 21.83 million ounces. Also on Monday, a very chunky 1,677,758 troy ounces were shipped out...most of it from Brink's Inc...and the rest from Scotia Mocatta. The link to all that activity is here...and it's worth a quick look.

Here's a chart that Washington state reader S.A. stole from a Zero Hedge article yesterday.

The red line is total federal spending...the blue line is total federal tax revenue...and the green bars are the net surplus/deficit. It's an ugly sight...and shows how America has declined since I was a small child back in the early 1950s. Note in particular the debt that was run up during WW2 vs. what has been happening over the last couple of decades.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Here's another chart from Washington reader S.A...and it requires no explanation from me. I attempted to post this in Saturday's column, but got a second copy of Nick Laird's "Days to Cover short positions" graph in its place...so I'm trying again now.

(Click on image to enlarge)

I have the usual number of stories for a mid-week column...and I hope you have the time to wade through all of them.

¤ Critical Reads

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A Firm Has Taken Responsibility For Tuesday's Violent Stock Swings

On Tuesday morning, dozens of stocks, including Pandora and Nokia, experienced violent price swings due to one trading firm's activity within a "dark pool."

Dark pools are private stock markets that connect buyers and sellers electronically so no party's identity is revealed.

According to the WSJ, the firm responsible for today's price madness has been identified, and securities regulator FINRA is looking into the matter.

What caused the trades is still a mystery. They were corrected, but even the way that was done leaves questions, according to Eric Hunsader, an executive at Nanex, a Chicago based firm that tracks market data.

This is very similar to the story that I ran on this subject yesterday...and now here is something that is brand new. This businessinsider.com article was posted on their website very early yesterday evening...and I thank Roy Stephens for our first story of the day...and the link is here.

Europe and Britain sinking under weight of welfare costs

In choosing to focus so strongly on the need for welfare reform, the Chancellor put his finger on the nub of the problem, not just for Britain, but for virtually all advanced economies.

It’s not just that much welfare spending has become bloated, unfair and sometimes outright corrupt, it is also that it is no longer economically affordable. Osborne couched his case in highly political terms, as you might expect after the latest British Social Attitudes survey.

This showed a high degree of public support for further cuts in welfare spending. Where once the Tories were regarded as cruel and heartless for wanting to slash benefits, it now seems that they can’t be tough enough. Politically, Osborne is therefore pushing at an open door when he says this is not just about saving money – it’s about fairness and enterprise.

That pretty much sums up the problems of all western democracies. They can no longer afford the welfare societies that vote them into office every four years or so. This story was posted in The Telegraph late on Monday evening BST...and is Roy Stephens second offering in a row. The link is here.

Growth crisis exposes burden of French largesse

Savouring a long lunch after a morning tending to baby quince and pear trees, the French Senate's 78 gardeners are blissfully untouched by the economic crisis gnawing at Europe's core.

They have jobs for life that pay 40 percent above the average French take-home salary and get "wet weather" bonuses when they work in drizzle, storms or snow.

Stalled growth in Europe's No. 2 economy has exposed the strain on public finances from the benefits lavished on these and other civil servants, and a growing chorus of opinion says it is time they were radically pruned back.

"I won't lie, we do very well," said one of the gardeners, who gave her name only as Natalie. "We earn much more than in the private sector and we basically can't be fired."

Even more comfortable are the hundreds of administrative staff inside who get bonuses if lawmaker debates run over into the night - regardless of whether they stayed late themselves.

They all rank as "fonctionnaires", a status held by 5.3 million state-employed teachers, medics, magistrates and clerks in a labyrinthine French administration running from the president's office to the furthest-flung town hall.

This Reuters story, filed from Paris yesterday morning, shocked me, but did not surprise me. It's certainly worth skimming...and I thank Ulrike Marx for her first story in today's column...and the link is here.

German Chancellor to Athens: 'We Are Partners and We Are Friends'

In her first visit to Greece since 2007, Angela Merkel offered verbal support for Athens, saying "there is progress every day." The German chancellor also announced two Berlin-funded development projects focusing on health care and regional administration. She was greeted by some 50,000 demonstrators in Athens protesting her tough demands for economic reforms.

They didn't necessarily represent the majority, but the message they brought with them was a bitter one. Some of the estimated 50,000 protesters on the streets of Athens greeted the German chancellor on Tuesday with swastikas, signs with epithets like "Out with the Fourth Reich" and placards depicting her face and a painted-on Hitler mustache.

This, however, did not stop Angela Merkel from delivering some encouraging words to Greece on Tuesday. The chancellor said Germany stood ready to continue helping Greece through its economic crisis, while recognizing that the country has covered "much of the ground" necessary for recovery.

"There is progress every day," she said in Athens. "But I believe that this path, as difficult as it may be, will pay off for Greece."

This story showed up on the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and I thank Roy for finding this story for us. The link is here.

Angela Merkel recoils from Greek showdown on Spain contagion fears

The German leader – protected by 6,000 police – braved hostile crowds in Syntagma Square and Nazi insults in the Greek press as she made her first visit to Athens since the debt crisis erupted three years ago. The Frankfurter Allgemeine newspaper said Chancellor Konrad Adenauer had an easier time visiting Greece in 1954, just a decade after Wehrmacht occupation.

The unflappable Mrs. Merkel offered a symbolic message of solidarity for the Greek people – now in their fifth year of recession, with an economy reduced by 22pc and youth unemployment at 55pc.

"I have not come here as teacher or judge," she said after meeting premier Antonis Samaras. "I come in the full awareness that the Greek people are going through a difficult period, and that many are suffering badly.

"You are making progress, you are coming to grips with the hard task ahead. It is in all our interests to ensure that Europe regains credibility, and to make it clear that we members of the eurozone can solve our problems."

Here's the Ambrose Evans-Pritchard spin on Merkel's visit to Greece. It was posted on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site late yesterday evening..and I thank Manitoba reader Ulrike Marx for her second contribution to today's column. The link is here.

The Egoists' Hour: Debt Crisis Gives European Separatists a Boost

The debt crisis is fueling the fortunes of separatists in a handful of European Union countries. Affluent regions in Spain, Britain, Belgium and Italy no longer feel a sense of solidarity with poorer parts of their own countries -- but they want to remain part of the EU.

The Catalans, who make up one-fifth of Spain's total economic output, have grown tired of "not making any progress within Spain." For the last 30 years, says Mas, the central government has invested too little in his region.

Just as concerns are growing in Europe over Spain's government finances, the economically powerful Basque Country is also on the rise. Polls show that the separatists are likely to do well in Basque regional elections scheduled for the Sunday after next.

Spain isn't the only country where the economic crisis is fueling independence movements. The Scots are planning to hold a referendum on independence in the fall of 2014. In Northern Ireland, Molotov cocktails are flying through the air and shots are occasionally being fired. And in communal elections in Belgium next Sunday, the leader of the Flemish separatists, Bart de Wever, stands a good chance of being elected mayor of Antwerp, the country's commercial capital. His supporters see the office in the largest Flemish city as a springboard for the position of leader of an independent Flemish state.

This spiegel.de story from yesterday was sent to me by Roy Stephens...and it's your first must read in today's column. The link is here.

Plans For Tougher Rule Enforcement: EU At Risk of Remaining a Toothless Tiger

The EU plans to enforce its rules by imposing tough penalties in the future. But experience suggests it won't be able to gets its way against major EU countries. Even the much-vaunted fiscal pact pushed through by Chancellor Angela Merkel to underpin the euro is at risk of being watered down.

According to this proposal, the European Commission, the EU's executive, would gain the right not only to recommend amendments to national draft budgets, but also to enforce them. If a government resists, the Brussels-based institution would have the power to impose fines.

In many European capitals, though, Van Rompuy's reform plans are controversial. Indeed, many politicians have been put off by the numerous rules and regulations that Brussels has already used to intervene in the economic policies of crisis-stricken countries. Until now, the threat of EU sanctions has mainly been confined to smaller member states.

By contrast, large countries such as Spain, Italy and France have so far had little to fear. Olli Rehn, the European commissioner for economic and monetary affairs in Brussels, knows better than to antagonize certain countries by imposing sanctions.

This is another Roy Stephens offering from the spiegel.de website yesterday...and the link is here.

Taming the Markets: Eleven EU Countries Agree on Transaction Tax

The idea of a financial transaction tax in the European Union has been slowly gaining support over the last two years, with Germany and France advocating most vehemently in favor. Now they have convinced nine other EU states to join them -- though details remain scarce.

Finance ministers from 11 European Union countries agreed at a meeting in Luxembourg on Tuesday to support a tax on financial transactions, hoping to discourage risky trading while simultaneously raising revenue.

Germany and France, the EU's two largest economies, have long supported the idea of the tax, while countries like the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom remained staunchly opposed out of fears the tax could harm the competitiveness of their financial markets.

Sweden imposed a similar tax in the 1980s, only to lose much of its trading activity to London. Stockholm later repealed the law.

"We still think that the financial transaction tax is a very dangerous tax," Swedish Finance Minister Anders Borg said ahead of the meeting. "It will have a negative impact on growth."

This tax is an attempt to clip the wings of the high-frequency traders...as they would suffer heavily if such a tax was implemented. The U.S. and the U.K., are vehemently opposed to it, as they would no longer be able to rig theirs...and others...stock, bond and currency markets.

This is another story from the spiegel.de Internet site...and I thank Roy Stephens for sharing it with us. The link is here.

IMF Sees European Banks Facing $4.5 Trillion Sell-Off

The International Monetary Fund said European banks may need to sell as much as $4.5 trillion in assets through 2013 if policy makers fall short of pledges to stem the fiscal crisis, up 18 percent from its April estimate.

Failure to implement fiscal tightening or set up a single supervisory system in the timing agreed could force 58 European Union banks from UniCredit SpA (UCG) to Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) to shrink assets, the IMF said. That would hurt credit and crimp growth by 4 percentage points next year in Greece, Cyprus, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain, Europe’s periphery.

“Intensification of the crisis has manifested itself in capital outflows from the periphery to the core at a pace typically associated with currency crises or sudden stops,” the IMF wrote in its Global Financial Stability Report released today. “Restoring confidence among private investors is paramount for the stabilization of the euro area.”

This is all very wonderful, but which assets are they referring to...and what is their real mark-to-market value...and who are the buyers going to be? The banks are obviously going to have to take a big haircut here. Stay tuned. I thank Roy Stephens for sending us this Bloomberg story that was posted on their website late yesterday evening Mountain time. The link is here.

Marin Katusa: Is Hyperinflation About to Light a Middle Eastern Powder Keg?

The connection between currency debasement and social upheaval makes sense - hyperinflation only occurs in times of domestic drama. For example, in 1946 Hungary experienced the greatest episode of hyperinflation on record - in the context of a small, economically limited nation wracked by the Great Depression and then Nazi occupation in World War II. Zimbabwe earned second place in hyperinflation's record books when its dollar inflated 7.96 billion percent from early 2007 to late 2008. The cause? Robert Mugabe's land-reform policy slashed agricultural output and destabilized a fragile society.

That brings me to today... and to Iran, where that volatile mix of domestic drama and hyperinflation is pushing a fragile society to the brink of revolution.

If history repeats itself and Iran descends into revolution, the outcome is both unclear and obvious. In the unclear category: the details of the resulting regime and how far an Iranian revolution might spread through the Middle East. What is obvious, though, are the generalities: a post-revolution Iran would remain Islamist and vehemently anti-US.

This article by Marin was posted in Tuesday's Casey Daily Dispatch...and is well worth reading. The link is here.

Three King World News Blogs

The first is with Dr. Stephen Leeb...and it's headlined "Gold, Silver & the Smart Move by the Chinese in Commodities". Next is Rick Rule. His blog is entitled "We Have Tight Gold Supplies & Future Supply Constraints". And lastly is this blog with Dan Norcini. It bears the headline "More Incredibly Important Developments in Both Gold & Silver".

Trading-Limit Ruling Appeal Considered by CFTC

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission may decide as soon as this week to appeal a judge’s ruling against trading limits for oil, natural gas and other commodities, according to two people briefed on the matter.

The five-member commission plans to vote following a recommendation from the agency’s general counsel’s office to appeal the ruling, according to the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the schedule is private. U.S. District Judge Robert Wilkins ruled on Sept. 28 that the CFTC failed to assess whether the limits imposed under the Dodd-Frank Act were necessary and appropriate.

The decision blocked rules scheduled to take effect Oct. 12 that were challenged by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association and International Swaps and Derivatives Association Inc. The associations represent JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and other banks and energy-trading firms.

This Bloomberg story was posted on their website during the New York lunch hour yesterday...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for sending it along. The link is here.

Are oil price benchmarks rigged just like LIBOR?

One of the world's largest oil trading groups has warned of "inaccurate pricing" in the benchmarks for the energy market that underpin billions of dollars of trading each day in contracts such as Brent and West Texas Intermediate.

Total Oil Trading SA, the trading arm of Total of France, has told international regulators that "several times a year, estimates of market prices on key [energy] indices ... are out of line with our experience of the day."

The International Organisation of Securities Commissions, an umbrella group of financial regulators, last week backed away from its initial tough proposals for regulation of the benchmarks in the physical energy market.

This Financial Times story was posted on their website on Monday...and showed up in the clear in this GATA release yesterday. It's worth reading...and the link is here.

Swiss Target Commodities Secrets Risking $21 Billion Hegemony

Vitol SA, one of the world’s biggest oil traders, is being enticed from its Geneva base by Dubai and Singapore as Switzerland considers scrapping policies that made the country a global center for commodities.

“I’m concerned for the future both in Switzerland and elsewhere,” said David Fransen, chief executive officer of Vitol Group’s trading arm, citing the threat of over-regulation and higher taxes. “Other jurisdictions are actively courting us,” he said, including Malaysia and the Caribbean.

The Swiss government, which has been probing the commodities industry since May, said the Alpine nation is “exposed to risks to its reputation” by being an oil, grain and coffee trading hub. The review, due later this year, follows Switzerland’s decision in March 2009 to meet international standards to avoid being listed as a tax haven and attempts to settle a U.S. investigation of 11 banks that allegedly helped American clients hide money from the Internal Revenue Service.

While Vitol, Glencore International Plc (GLEN) and Trafigura Beheer BV surpass Nestle SA as the biggest Swiss companies by sales, politicians are concerned a lack of industry regulation may hurt a nation struggling to find a response to a global crackdown on tax evasion.

This longish Bloomberg story was posted on their Internet site on Monday afternoon, is another story courtesy of Elliot Simon...and it, too, is worth reading. The link is here.

Gold investment should double on persisting economic woes - Coutts

Coutts, the private banking arm of Britain's Royal Bank of Scotland, says investors should double the amount of gold they hold as the value of paper currency diminishes along with the prospects for global economic growth.

Ideally, investors should aim to have 7 to 8 percent of their assets in gold, above the wealth management industry's average of 3 percent, Gary Dugan, Coutts' chief investment officer for Asia and Middle East, told Reuters.

"What's happening in precious metals is that they are becoming more mainstream," Dugan said, adding that ten years ago investors rarely held any gold in their portfolios.

"Some of the clients ask where gold prices are going, and I say don't even think about prices. It's a store of value."

I love it when banks start talking dirty like that. I found this Reuters story, filed from Singapore earlier today, posted over at the mineweb.com Internet site in the wee hours of this morning...and the link is here.

Steve Forbes: Gold Can Save Us From Disaster

In commentary published in the new edition of Forbes magazine, editor and publisher Steve Forbes endorses both a gold standard and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul's proposed legislation to facilitate competition in currencies.

In support of the latter, Forbes cites the prosecution of Liberty Dollar founder Bernard von Not Haus.

I thank Chris Powell for wordsmithing the paragraph of introduction above. Forbes' commentary is headlined "Gold Can Save Us from Disaster" and it's posted at their Internet site...and the link is here...and is a must read.

¤ The Funnies

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¤ The Wrap

There is only one question left. Which will break first - the ability of the statisticians to make numbers mean anything they want them to mean or the threadbare shreds of "credibility" which remain hanging from Washington DC and the Fed? In either case, real economic assets and the precious metals are waiting in the wings. The Privateer has gone on record as saying that we do not expect any spectacular moves in real goods prices or the precious metals until after November 6. We hold to that, but the possibility of us being proven wrong are growing. - Bill Buckler, Gold This Week, 06 October 2012

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion of course, but it's my opinion that both gold and silver...along with their associated equities...had some major help in getting sold off yesterday. There was no reason that I could see why gold got sold down fifteen bucks [and silver about eighty cents] in less than an hour yesterday morning in New York trading...especially considering their subsequent rallies off those lows. Then there was the surprise sell off in the stocks starting an hour before the close of equity trading...both yesterday and Monday. But maybe it's just me!

Well, I phoned Scotia Mocatta in Toronto yesterday morning...and spoke to one Mr. Andy Montano...the gentleman listed on the ScotiaMocatta website as being their contact in Canada.

He was very pleasant, said he'd been with the firm for over 30 years...and that this new CFTC classification issue was news to him. I asked if he could recommend someone within the Bank of Nova Scotia that would know the answer to that question. He couldn't...and that's pretty much where the conversation ended. I'm not sure whether he was being totally truthful with me, or not. I'll do some more digging on this issue when I can find the time later this week.

But as I pointed out in this space yesterday, it really doesn't matter what name is attached to this new non-U.S. bank...because like the Bear Stearns/JPMorgan situation back in 2008, the new price management player in the gold and silver market is now a known quantity. Ted Butler will have his mid-week commentary for his paying subscribers later this afternoon...and it's a pretty good bet that most of it will dwell on this issue.

Here are the 6-month charts for both gold and silver. And although there hasn't been a major sell-off in either metal to date, the monstrous overbought conditions have rapidly disappeared...and the RSI is well into neutral territory in both metals at the moment. We can still get a further engineered price decline from here, as we can also end up equally oversold as we have been overbought, but it's my opinion that a sell-off that severe is not in the cards. And if it is that severe, it won't last long. It's a dip I'll be buying with both hands if it occurs during a time of day when I can actually trade the spike low.

(Click on image to enlarge)

(Click on image to enlarge)

I'm still concerned about the length and severity of the ongoing sell-off...but breathing a little easier now than I was just a short while ago. But you still never know, as you're only certain in hindsight.

Yesterday, at the 1:30 p.m. Eastern time Comex close, was the cut-off for this Friday's Commitment of Traders Report. Based on the price action during the reporting week, I'm expecting some improvements in the Commercial net short position in both gold and silver when the report comes out. However, the amount of improvement that I'm expecting won't do a thing to change the obscene and grotesque short positions that exist in the Comex futures market in both metals...especially silver.

Both gold and silver sold off a bit during the Far East trading session on their Wednesday, but rebounded at the 8:00 a.m. BST London open...and are both virtually unchanged as I hit the 'send' button at 5:15 a.m. Eastern time. The dollar index is back down to the 80.00 level...and volumes are pretty light.

But the real price and volume action will occur in New York...and I await the Comex open with great interest.

See you on Thursday.

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