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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Will Silver See a Major Supply Squeeze and Massive Price Increase?

"The monstrous and grotesque short positions held by the 'Big 4' traders are mostly still intact in both silver and gold."

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

With a quiet Friday volume backdrop...and a slowly but steadily rising dollar index...I guess it should have been expected that the gold price would slowly lower during Far East and London trading.

But by the 8:20 a.m. Eastern Comex open, the gold price was only down about seven bucks from Thursday's close. Friday's New York 'high' came about an hour later...$1,739.60 spot...and was only a couple of bucks lower than Thursday's close.

Then, with 100% of the Friday's dollar index rally already factored into the PM prices, the engineered price decline began...and thirty minutes later the low of the day [$1,714.20 spot] was in. As I love to say at moments such as this, it was sooooo obvious, that even Stevie Wonder could see it.

The gold price recovered a bit from there...and that rally lasted until the 1:30 p.m. Comex close...and from that point it traded sideways as traders headed out the door for the weekend.

Gold closed the day at $1,720.50 spot...down $21.10 from Thursday's close. Volume [about 175,000 contracts] was not as heavy as one would expect, especially considering that this price decline took gold below its 50-day moving average for a few minutes. The reason I'm dwelling on this, is that we had a $16.90 decline in gold on Monday...and volume that day was 189,000 contracts. Very strange.

As usual, the silver price was much more 'volatile'...but the general price path was mostly the same...and the price action in New York was almost identical to the price action in gold during that time period. Silver had an intraday price move of over a dollar...and the absolute low of $31.83 spot came around 12:20 p.m. Eastern.

From that point, there was a tiny rally into the close of Comex trading...and the silver price didn't do much going into the 5:15 p.m. electronic close.

Silver finished down 75 cents, but volume was only 51,000 contracts.

The dollar index opened the day at 79.34...and then traded sideways until 2:00 p.m. Hong Kong time...7:00 a.m. in London. A tiny rally began, which picked up steam at 9:30 a.m. in New York...and was all done by a few minutes after 11:00 a.m. Eastern. From there it traded almost ruler flat into the 5:00 p.m. electronic close. The index finished at 79.63...up about 29 basis points.

It nearly goes without saying that the big price declines in gold and silver had zero to do with the any currency movements yesterday. Both metals refused to decline in price during the New York trading session...and had to be shoved. Platinum and palladium prices had already begun to fall many hours earlier but, for whatever reason, gold and silver did not.

The gold stocks opened down a bit, but made an immediate attempt to rally, despite the fact there was considerable weakness in the equity markets. The stocks broke slightly into positive territory shortly after 10:00 a.m. in New York...and then headed lower...with the low tick coming just a few minutes before noon...gold's low tick of the day.

Then away they went to the upside...and by early afternoon were solidly in positive territory...where they stayed for most of the rest of the Friday trading day. The HUI closed up 0.28%...which I found astonishing...especially in light of what happened to the gold price in particular...and the equity markets in general.

Not only that, there was no sign whatsoever in the HUI chart of the big waterfall decline in the gold price that occurred between 11:25 and 11:55 a.m. Amazing!

The silver stocks finished mixed...another big surprise...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed down only 0.33%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 51 gold and 7 silver contracts were posted for delivery within the Comex-approved depositories on Tuesday. The link to that activity, such as it was, is linked here.

There was a smallish increase of 9,692 troy ounce in GLD...and no reported changes in SLV.

The U.S Mint had a sales report on Friday. They sold 10,000 ounces of gold eagles...and 198,500 silver eagles. Month-to-date the U.S. Mint has sold 41,000 ounce of gold eagles...7,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 2,016,500 silver eagles. Based on these sales numbers, the silver/gold sales ratio is just over 42 to 1 as of the end of the week.

Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Thursday, they reported receiving 1,229,498 troy ounces of silver...and shipped only 195,008 ounces of the stuff out the door. Half of the silver received ended up in the JPMorgan Chase depository, which now sits at 24.81 million ounces. The link to that activity is here.

The Commitment of Traders Report wasn't quite what I was expecting...at least in silver.

What the COT numbers showed in silver was virtually no change in the Commercial net short position. I found this rather surprising for two reasons. The first was that during the reporting week, the silver price declined by a dollar...and second, the Commercial net short position in gold fell by a rather substantial amount. If you're looking for an answer why that is the case, I don't have one...and neither did Ted...at least an answer that satisfied me. So I'll be looking forward what he has to say about it in his weekend review to his paying subscribers later today.

The Commercial net short position in silver sits at 57,094 contracts, or 285.5 million ounces.

On a net basis the 'Big 4' traders, who I now believe to be JPMorgan Chase, the Bank of Nova Scotia, HSBC USA...and Citigroup, are short more than 44% of the entire Comex futures market in silver. But JPM and the Bank of Nova Scotia account for 90% of that short position, so HSBC and Citi each hold only tiny positions. Collectively, they are short 248.9 million ounces of silver, which represents a bit over 87% of the entire Commercial net short position....and the numbers in this paragraph are minimum numbers. I'm using the legacy COT report...and Ted uses the disaggregated report. That report shows more spread trades than the legacy report. Ted subtracts those as well, and that always ups the concentration level.

The '5 through 8' largest silver shorts are short an additional 8.6 percentage points of the Comex futures market. Add that on to more than 44% that the 'Big 4' are short...that makes the 'Big 8' short over 53% of the entire Comex futures market in silver.

And according to the charts from reader EWF, the raptors [all Commercial traders excluding the Big 8] only hold a tiny long position in silver...and the '5 through 8' traders added a small amount to their short position during the reporting week.

But by far the biggest hogs at the trough are JPMorgan Chase and Scotia Mocatta...and what they decide, will determine where silver prices go from here.

In gold, which fell less than $50 during the reporting week, the Commercial net short position dropped by a very chunky 19,605 contracts, or 1.96 million ounces...and is now down to 24.74 million ounces.

On a net basis the 'Big 4' traders are short 35.8% of the Comex futures market in gold...and the '5 through 8' traders are short an additional 14.1 percentage points. So the 'Big 8' are short 49.9% of the entire Comex futures market in gold...and using the numbers from the disaggregated COT report will put these eight trader over the 50% mark.

You can bet your last nickel that virtually every one of the 'Big 8' shorts in silver are the same LBMA market making members as the 'Big 8' shorts in gold...and they all work together to 'make' the market'...with the raptors riding along on their coat tails.

Here, in graphic form, are the short positions of the 'Big 4' and 'Big 8' as shown in days of world production needed to cover their respective short positions in all physical commodities traded on the Comex. The chart tells all. As always, I thank Nick Laird for providing it.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Without doubt, the Commitment of Traders report would show much more improvement in gold and silver's Commercial net short positions if it was calculated as of the close of business yesterday...but that data won't be available until next Friday's report.

Since the 20th of the month fell on a Saturday in October, The Central Bank of the Russian Federation updated their website with their September data. I must admit that I was disappointed to see that, officially, they didn't add to their gold reserves during that month. Maybe they're keeping their gold accumulation quiet, like China does. Anyway, here's Nick Laird's updated chart.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Here's another chart courtesy of Washington state reader S.A. This one is self-explanatory.

(Click on image to enlarge)

My daughter Kathleen sent me this too-cute-for-words photo of Mrs. Otter and one of her newborns the other day...which I thought was worth sharing.

Since this is my Saturday column, I get to empty out my in-box...and that's precisely what I plan on doing. I hope you can find the time over the weekend to read what interests you the most.

¤ Critical Reads

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Meredith Whitney: Nobody Can Fix Citi — The Incredible Shrinking Bank

Citigroup released its third-quarter earnings on Monday, and Pandit quit on Tuesday, and though the bank said his departure was voluntary, the timing has raised red flags.

Pandit reportedly clashed with the bank’s board over strategy and operational issues. John Havens, the bank’s chief operating officer, stepped down as well.

“Citigroup is ‘the incredible shrinking bank,’ and the least interest of the big four, in our opinion,” Whitney wrote in a note, according to The Wall Street Journal.

“No CEO will be able to change these facts in the near term. It appears the board feels the same way, as they have appointed an unknown to the outside to the new CEO position, Mike Corbat.”

This story showed up on the moneynews.com Internet site early on Thursday afternoon...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for our first story of the day. The link is here.

Jamie Dimon: I Will ‘Do Whatever it Takes’ to Press for Fiscal-Cliff Solution

Thursday, 15 members of The Financial Services Forum, a non-partisan financial and economic policy organization comprising the CEOs of 20 of the largest and most diversified financial services institutions doing business in the United States, sent a letter to President Barack Obama and Congress warning that interest rates could spike significantly if policymakers do not agree to stop the series of automatic tax cuts and spending hikes and replace them with a long-term plan to tame federal debt.

“The consequences of inaction — for stability in global financial markets, for economic growth, for millions of Americans still without work and for the financial circumstances of American businesses and households — would be very grave,” the letter stated.

“But merely avoiding the fiscal cliff is not enough. We further urge you and your colleagues to enact legislation that truly restores the nation’s long-term fiscal soundness.”

This is the second story in a row from the moneynews.com website...and the second offering in a row from Elliot Simon. The link is here.

Welfare spending jumps 32% during Obama’s presidency

Federal welfare spending has grown by 32 percent over the past four years, fattened by President Obama’s stimulus spending and swelled by a growing number of Americans whose recession-depleted incomes now qualify them for public assistance, according to numbers released Thursday.

Federal spending on more than 80 low-income assistance programs reached $746 billion in 2011, and state spending on those programs brought the total to $1.03 trillion, according to figures from the Congressional Research Service and the Senate Budget Committee.

That makes welfare the single biggest chunk of federal spending — topping Social Security and basic defense spending.

This story showed up on The Washington Times Internet site on Thursday...and I plucked it from the Friday edition of the King Report. The link is here.

Doug Noland: The Crash of '87...25th Anniversary

The Fed’s statement on October 20, 1987 commenced 25 years of serial (and escalating) booms and busts around the world. We’re nowadays in the midst of “melt-up” Credit debasement, a “blow-off” top in global speculative excess, and complete policy capitulation in hope of holding the downside of the global Credit cycle at bay. For a few years now, I’ve referred to the “global government finance Bubble” as the granddaddy of them all. What started as excesses at the fringes of U.S. bank and junk bond finance back in the late-eighties eventually made its way to terminally infect Treasury and related debt at the core of our entire monetary system. Global excesses, having fueled precarious Bubbles in Japan, SE Asia, Europe and the emerging economies over the years, afflicted China with its estimated population of 1.3 billion. Today’s historic Bubble phase risks the loss of market trust in sovereign debt. The current global “inflationist” policy regime risks being completely discredited. And the historic Chinese Bubble risks a precarious post-Bubble day of reckoning.

Unlike the 80’s and 90’s, there’s no longer any attempt at a coordinated strategy to deal with global excesses and imbalances. Policymakers have thrown in the towel - and these days have no strategy beyond reflation and Bubble perpetuation. U.S. policymakers pay little more than lip service to incredible federal deficits. This, however, is actually more than is paid to the massive Current Account Deficits that have been the root cause of now deep structural global imbalances and economic impairment. More than 25 years later, our nation’s policy prescription for unmatched global imbalances is even looser monetary policy and added stimulus for all nations, everywhere, all the time.

As always, Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin is a must read...and this one is no exception, as it shows how we got to where we are today in twenty-five years or less. The link is here.

Martin Sheen and Woody Harrelson set for 9/11 'truther' film September Morn

Hollywood is to court controversy with a film that will challenge the official version of the events of 9/11, a previously taboo topic for the industry mainstream. Martin Sheen, Woody Harrelson and Ed Asner, who have all supported conspiracy theories about the terrorist attacks, have signed up to the movie, which is entitled September Morn.

Styling itself as a drama in the tradition of Twelve Angry Men, the film's advance publicity note hints at a cover-up, saying: "We the people demand that the government revisit and initiates a thorough and independent investigation to the tragic events of 9/11."

Details of the film, which is to be directed by BJ Davis and written by Howard Cohen, are expected to be revealed at an American Film Market conference in Los Angeles next week.

This story showed up on Wednesday on the guardian.co.uk Internet site of all places...and I thank reader 'David in California' for sending it. It's worth reading...and the link is here.

Best Doug Casey Speech Ever! An Anarchist, Economic Collapse & 7 Billion Chimpanzees

This is the 62-minute speech that Doug gave at Libertopia 2012 in San Diego last Saturday. I haven't had the time to listen to all of it and, like you, it will go on my 'ta do' list this weekend. It was posted over at the youtube.com Internet site on Monday...and the link is here.

Europe mistakes market lull for vote of confidence

Sorry to quibble, but there was no EU banking union deal Thursday night. It was a step backwards from agreements already made in June.

Germany has succeeded in kicking the issue into touch until after the Bundestag elections late next year. There will be no decision until deep into 2013 on whether to recapitalise the banks (i.e. crippled Spanish banks) directly through the European Stability Mechanism.

The crucial issue of whether this can be applied "retroactively" to legacy assets remaining from the Spanish burbuja will be discussed later by finance ministers. i.e., by the same AAA bloc that has already said it won't underwrite this mess.

The final text repeats verbatim the loose commitment from the June summit to break the vicious circle between banks and sovereign states, but Europe is not in fact any closer to doing so. The timetable has slipped further.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has his knickers in a twist in this blog posted over at The Telegraph website yesterday. It's certainly worth reading nonetheless...and the link is here.

Millions affected after cyber attack on HSBC

An unknown group launched a so-called “denial of service” attack on Britain’s largest bank on Thursday evening, crashing web-based services for about seven hours.

At its peak, HSBC was deluged with internet traffic 500 times its normal level, five times higher than the amount of traffic that hit the bank in a similar attack earlier this year.

A spokesman for the bank said full internet services were restored by 3 a.m. yesterday and claimed that no customer data had been compromised as a result of the attack.

This HSBC banking group is NOT related to HSBC USA, even though they bear the same name. I thank Donald Sinclair for sending this story which was posted on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site late last night BST...and the link is here.

Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals British Met Office report quietly released

The world stopped getting warmer almost 16 year ago, according to new data released last week.

The figures, which have triggered debate among climate scientists, reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012, there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures.

This means that the 'plateau' or 'pause' in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose...1980 to 1996. Before that, temperatures had been stable or declining for about 40 years.

The new data, compiled from more than 3,000 measuring points on land and sea, was issued quietly on the Internet, without any media fanfare,and, until today, it had not been reported.

The graph is worth checking out...and it was posted on the dailymail.co.uk website on Monday afternoon BST. I thank reader Rick Mark for bringing it to our attention...and the link is here.

Border Tensions: Syrian Conflict Raises Kurdish Specter For Turkey

As the confrontation between Turkey and Syria escalates, Ankara is readying not only for possible war against Syrian President Bashar Assad, but also against Kurdish separatists. Turkey fears they may be emboldened by the situation in Syria and resurrect their cause.

Turkey's army, second in size only to that of the United States within NATO, would likely defeat the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad within a few days. But an attack could drag NATO into the conflict, and it also poses substantial risks. The few shells that are landing on Turkish soil should be the least of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's worries. Indeed, he should be more concerned over a strategic maneuver on the part of Syria, whereby Assad is allowing the Kurds to do as they please on his side of the border, fueling the Turks' fears of a new uprising by the Kurdish minority in their own country.

In principle, an enabling statute for military campaigns would allow Prime Minister Erdogan to strike at any time. The situation in the region is already volatile. Syrian artillery shells continue to strike near refugee camps that now house up to 100,000 Syrians. And with the forced landing last week of a Syrian passenger jet, which apparently had ammunition and missile parts from Russia in its cargo hold, Turkey irritated the Assad regime and antagonized Syria's ally, Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The "New Great Game" in full cry. This spiegel.de story was posted on their Internet site on Tuesday...and I've been saving it for today's column. I thank Roy Stephens for sending it...and the link is here.

Syria: An Energy-Based Proxy War in the Making?

The Vietnam war wasn't really about Vietnam. Spaniards may have fought in the Spanish Civil War, but the real opponents were elsewhere. US and Soviet machinations in Afghanistan in the late 1970s had little to do with liberating a repressed population.

They were all proxy wars, struggles between superpowers that chose to fight their battles in faraway lands and inflict their collateral damage on other peoples instead of their own.

Each war had a cover. Each time the superpowers of the world got involved - overtly or covertly - to right an arguable wrong. Really though, they were there to fight each other. To weaken each other. To claim moral superiority and political preeminence. And to win the right to use the proxy nation's resources and location to their advantage.

It would be lovely to think such wars are a thing of the past... but another proxy war is rapidly developing...in Syria.

This Wednesday edition of the Casey Daily Dispatch was written by our own chief energy investment strategist, Marin Katusa. It's a must read for sure...and the link is here.

Iraq issues arrest warrant for ex-central bank chief, other officials

Iraqi authorities issued arrest warrants for the former central bank chief and other bank officials after a probe into corruption, a spokesman for the high judicial council said on Friday.

Iraq's cabinet on Tuesday ousted director Sinan al-Shibabi over a parliamentary charges bank officials were abusing dollar sales. His dismissal will do little to ease investor worries the government is undermining the bank's autonomy.

Abdul-Sattar al-Birqdar, a spokesman for the judiciary council confirmed an arrest warrant issue was issued against Shibibi and some other officials. But he did not give any details about the charges they face.

You've just read the entire 3-paragraph Reuters story on this subject. It was posted on their website very early on Friday morning Eastern time...and I thank Scott Pluschau for sending it along. The link to the hard copy is here.

A wake-up call for Pakistan's broken society

The barbaric attempt on the life of a 14-year-old schoolgirl last Tuesday by Taliban terrorists has spawned a state of trauma and national mourning in Pakistan. It's unlike other incidents that have hit the tragedy-prone country with a devastating frequency in recent years.

Malala Yusafzai, the innocent victim of the Pakistani Taliban's bloodlust, rose to prominence three years ago when, as an 11-year-old from the picturesque Swat Valley, she challenged the Taliban edict that girls shouldn't get an education. The Taliban, with their archaic, stone-age mentality, were then in control of Swat, and the Pakistan Army had just mounted a major military offensive against them. The militants had torched scores of schools for girls and threatened to deface with acid burns any girl seen going to a school.

Malala's bravado made her a celebrity; she became an icon to those who abhorred the Taliban's anachronistic and wayward interpretation of their religion. Once the Taliban brigands had been driven out of Swat, Malala was showered with government recognition and accolades. She became a standard-bearer of the Pakistani secularists and religious moderates who loathed the Taliban's craving to turn the clock back to the Middle Ages and deny the benefits of education to half the country's population.

This story showed up on the Asia Times Internet site on Wednesday...and I thank Roy Stephens for his final offering in today's column. The link is here.

Four King World News Blogs/Audio Interviews

This first blog is a repeat of one I posted yesterday...with the wrong link, as it turned out. It's with John Embry...and it's headlined "London Trader, Commercials & a Spike in Gold". Next comes James Turk...and his blog is entitled "One of the Most Important Gold Charts Ever". The third blog is with Dan Norcini. It bears the headline "Incredibly Key Chart, This One Worries the Gold & Silver Bears". The audio interview is with Egon von Greyerz.

Conflict-free gold standard launched

The World Gold Council launched the Conflict-Free Gold Standard yesterday, which it describes as, an industry-led approach to combat the potential misuse of mined gold to fund unlawful armed conflict.

The World Gold Council has developed the Conflict-Free Gold Standard with its member companies, comprising the world's leading gold mining companies, and with extensive input from governments, civil society and supply chain participants. By following this Standard, gold miners can assess their operations and provide assurance that they do not cause, support or benefit unlawful armed conflict, nor contribute to serious human rights abuses, or breaches of international humanitarian law. It is designed to increase trust and transparency in the gold supply chain. It provides further confidence that responsibly undertaken, gold mining is an important source of social and economic development.

It sure sounds great on paper in the not-so-hallowed halls of the World Gold Council...but in practice it will be impossible to prevent it, regardless of how noble it all sounds. The story was posted on the mineweb.com Internet site yesterday...and I thank Donald Sinclair for bringing it to our attention. The link is here.

Nugget photo excites Goldfields prospectors

A photo of a large gold nugget believed to have been found near Kalgoorlie-Boulder is creating much excitement in the gold mining community in Australia.

The nugget is said to weigh up to 60 kilograms, with an estimated value of around $1.6 million.

No one has claimed ownership and the photograph's origin is unknown.

Rumours of big gold finds in the area are not uncommon but rarely verified.

This short story, along with an eye-popping photo, was posted on the abc.net.au Internet site on their Friday afternoon while North America was sound asleep on Thursday night. Not surprisingly, it was Australian reader [and chartist extraordinaire] Nick Laird who came up with this must read item...and the link is here.

A Golden Solution for Europe's Sovereign-Debt Crisis

Here's an idea that almost certainly wasn't discussed at Thursday night's European summit: using countries' gold reserves to lower the borrowing costs of euro-zone governments.

Central banks of the 17-nation currency union are sitting on more than 10,000 metric tons of gold. At northward of $1,740 a troy ounce, that's a chunk of change.

From the point of view of Europe's debt crisis, most of it is in the wrong place. Nearly a third of it belongs to Germany and almost a quarter of it is in France, neither of which is struggling with high debt-interest costs. For some countries burdened with debt—Spain, which holds 282 tons, Greece with 112 tons and Ireland with just six—their holdings are too small to make much of a difference.

But two countries have enough gold to make a difference to their financing costs. Italy, which has flirted with unsustainably high borrowing costs, is sitting on the second-largest holding of gold reserves in Europe: 2,450 tons. The small economy of Portugal, which is in a bailout program after it lost access to affordable government finance, has reserves of 382 tons.

This Wall Street Journal reporter is a day late and a dollar short with this story, as this idea has been proposed in the gold world...and by your humble scribe...for many years now. The only thing that the reporter didn't mention, that in order to make it really work, gold would have to be re-priced to about ten times its current value...and that's what I expect will happen sooner or later...and probably sooner rather than later.

This story was posted on the WSJ website on Thursday evening...and I thank Ulrike Marx for bringing it to our attention. The link is here.

Addison Wiggin: China And The Recipe For $12,000 Gold

Gold has steadily advanced over the last 60 days from $1,600 to this morning’s $1,742. The IAU and GLD have been off to the races. Which is making some people a little nervous. For instance: “Can you comment,” a reader asks, “on what you think might happen to the price of gold if Romney gets elected?” I’ll tackle that question today in the course of examining some longer-term trends that will prove immune to whatever happens [checking the calendar] 25 days from now [thank God].

One of the most respected gold fund managers sees gold reaching for a new high inside the next 12 months. In his latest shareholder letter, Tocqueville Gold Fund chieftain John Hathaway bases that forecast on continued negative real interest rates: That is, as long as central banks push interest rates below the rate of inflation, gold performs well.

“Some suggest,” Hathaway writes by way of answering the reader’s question, “that a Republican victory in November would be a game changer for gold. It could bring about the dismissal of Bernanke, the taming of fiscal deficits, the painless elimination of excess liquidity from bloated central bank balance sheets and the restoration of robust economic growth.” [Pausing while your editor guffaws…]

This piece by the Daily Reckoning's Addison Wiggin was posted on the Forbes website on Tuesday morning....and I consider it a must read. I thank Jonathan Lewis for digging this story up for us...and the link is here.

Senior Paulson executive says loose monetary policy may boost gold price

John Reade, senior vice president at Paulson & Co., made the following comments at the SALT conference in Singapore today.

"I think gold has an appropriate place in a portfolio during certain macroeconomic circumstances and I think that's right now.

‘‘Under the right macroeconomic circumstances, gold is a good place to be and those circumstances will continue to play out over the next few years.

‘‘And there is no doubt the expectation or the announcement of QE4 or QE infinitive has been positive for gold and I would expect gold will do well in this environment where central banks will continue to print and where monetary policy is still in an extraordinary condition.

This Bloomberg story, filed from Singapore yesterday, was posted on the mineweb.com Internet site...and it's definitely worth reading. I thank Donald Sinclair for his final offering in today's column...and the link is here.

Will silver see a major supply squeeze and massive price increase?

A note by long term silver analyst (and silver bull), Israel Freidman published on Ted Butler's internet site contains some true gems which will be manna to the ears (if you can have such a thing) of silver investors everywhere. Leading off with the comment that silver is, in Freidman's view, the best raw material of all for the investor to hold, he says he held this opinion 30 years ago (when silver was under $5 an ounce) and holds the same view today (at $33) and that for the investor in bullion, silver remains one of the few commodities that the average person can actually hold in his possession (gold is another but the price precludes the ‘average' investor holding all but a tiny amount in comparison).

And he waxes enthusiastic, particularly about the US Mint's silver eagle coin which he describes as the most beautiful, and popular, coin in the world. He is convinced that it is so popular that one day the US Mint will not be able to keep up with demand (we have seen occasional times in the recent past when the Mint has had to ration sales) and that premiums on the coins will explode if, and when, the Mint has to stop producing them.

Lawrence [Lawrie] Williams, Mineweb's General Manager and Editorial Director, comments on the above essay that I linked in this column on Thursday. Lawrie's take on it is very interesting...and I consider it a worthwhile read. It's almost pointless to mention that it was posted over at the mineweb.com Internet site yesterday...and the link is here.

¤ The Funnies

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¤ The Wrap

When I was a boy I was told that anybody could become President; I'm beginning to believe it. ~ Clarence Darrow

My 'blasts from the past' are a couple of songs from a 1960s group that needs no introduction from me. I was in my mid teens when these were hits...and the links are here and here.

If you're looking for a complete understanding of what happened in yesterday's gold and silver price/share action...you're not going to find it here...or anywhere else for that matter.

Once again I wasn't surprised by the engineered price decline in gold and silver...but surprised that JPMorgan Chase et al, once again, didn't push it further than they did. Yes, they got the price of both metals below their respective 50-day moving averages for a brief period...but they did not close there. And yes there's been further improvement in the Commercial net short position when you consider yesterday's price action. But the associated volumes were only so-so...and not a sign of a major price capitulation. The monstrous and grotesque short positions held by the 'Big 4' traders are mostly still intact in both silver and gold.

Ted Butler says that there's still major room to the downside because of everything I spoke of in the previous paragraph...but can they, or will they? I don't know the answer to that, but I doubt very much that "da boyz" will leave us in suspense for long.

Having said all that, the RSI traces in both gold and silver are getting pretty close to oversold, but could remain down at these levels as long as the bullion banks keep the selling pressure on. I suppose they could be gunning for the 200-day moving averages...and I certainly wouldn't put it past them...but one thing you should never forget is that the price action in the precious metals has zip to do with supply and demand.

Here's the 1-year chart for both gold and silver, so you can get an idea of where we are vs. where we've been...

(Click on image to enlarge)

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I should point out that at the rate that JPMorgan et al are engineering prices lower through bid-pulling and high-frequency trading, we could be all done sometime during the coming week. And as I've said on several occasions before, any dips should be bought. That is still my opinion.

While on the subject of 'buying the dips'...I was rather taken aback by yesterday's share price action. Very deep pockets were in the precious metal markets yesterday...and made even more remarkable by the fact that it was done in the face of that big engineered price decline...plus a big sell-off in the general equity markets. My guess is that someone knows something that we don't..and if they're buying this dip with both hands and billions of dollars...we should be as well.

But nothing has changed with me, as I'm still 'all in'.

Before heading out the door for a couple days off, I'd like to mention Casey Research's flagship publication...the International Speculator. It's not cheap, that's true...but like I said earlier this week...quality pays, it never costs. That certainly applies to this monthly epistle. When you subscribe to IS...I believe that you get BIG GOLD thrown in for free. Don't forget that CR's 90-day guarantee of satisfaction is in effect. It costs nothing to check it out...and the link is here.

See you on Tuesday.

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