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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Lawrence Williams: Yesterday's Gold Smash Was Great Advertising for GATA

"We didn't have to wait long for that engineered price decline by JPMorgan Chase et al that I spoke of in yesterday's column"

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

The gold price was pretty flat up until noon in London. From there it got sold off a few more bucks, but recovered a hair going into the 8:20 a.m. Eastern time Comex open.

And that, as they say was that. A bit more than thirty five bucks got peeled off the price between the Comex open and the open of the equity markets at 9:30 a.m. about seventy minutes later.

The low price tick...$1,704.80 spot...came about one minute before the markets opened...and the subsequently rally gained back about half the original sell off...before the gold price began to trade sideways starting late in the New York lunch hour.

Gold closed at $1,719.80 spot...down $22.00 from Tuesday. Gross volume was an off-the-charts 486,000 contracts...but after the roll-overs were removed, net volume came in at a very low 66,000 contracts.

The silver price struggled throughout the entire Far East and London trading sessions...making it back to almost the $34.00 mark by 11:00 a.m. in London before it, too, began to head south...running into the same 8:20 a.m. Eastern time not-for-profit seller.

Silver's low...$32.83 spot...came at the precise same moment as gold's low price tick...but the recovery off that low was far more dramatic.

This subsequent rally ended at the same moment that gold's rally ended...about 12:40 p.m. during the New York lunch hour...and from there it traded sideways into the 5:15 p.m. electronic close.

Silver finished the Wednesday trading session at $33.77 spot...down only 28 cents from Tuesday...but had an intra-day price move of 3.6%. Ted Butler was very impressed by silver's strong recovery after such a battering. Silver's gross volume was around 163,000 contracts, with net volume only about 16,000 contracts.

It was the same not-for-profit seller story in both platinum and palladium yesterday as well. Palladium actually finished positive on the day...and platinum would have too, until it obviously got capped at the same 12:40 New York time as gold and silver did.

You have to be pretty much brain dead not to recognize Wednesday's price activity at the Comex open for what it was...a blatant engineered waterfall decline by JPMorgan et al...precisely what I wrote about in yesterday's column about five hours before it happened. That's the second time I got that lucky this year.

Even the pros weren't taken in by the fat finger/short seller b.s. that was circulating in the main stream media yesterday...and I'll have more in the 'Critical Reads' section...and in 'The Wrap'.

The dollar index opened at 80.35...and traded flat right up until mid-morning in London. It then rallied a bit up to the 80.57 mark between 8 and 10 a.m. in New York...and then at 10:00 a.m. Eastern time precisely, the index got sold off...and lost all of its gain. The index closed the day at 80.30...down an insignificant 5 basis points.

There was obviously no co-relation at all between the precious metal prices and the currencies yesterday.

I was expecting the worst in the precious metal equities...and was quite taken aback by what I found when I clicked on the HUI link late yesterday morning. Not only did the gold shares finish in positive territory, they closed on their absolute high tick of the day, as the HUI finished up 0.85%.

The silver shares didn't do as well as their golden brethren...but it could have been worse...much worse. Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed down 0.31%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that only 5 gold contracts were posted for delivery tomorrow...and that will just about wrap it up for the November delivery month. First Day Notice for delivery into the December gold and silver contract will be posted on the CME's Internet site late this evening Eastern time...and I'll have all the details in my column on Friday.

The GLD ETF reported receiving 38,750 troy ounces of gold yesterday...and SLV went in the other direction, as an authorized participant removed 483,966 troy ounces and shipped it off to parts unknown. Since its peak on November 9th...SLV has had almost 8.8 million ounces of silver withdrawn from it.

Over at Switzerland's Zürcher Kantonalbank for the period ending November 26th, they reported that 44,196 troy ounces of gold...along with 227,177 troy ounces of silver were added to their respective ETFs.

I was amazed at what I found when I clicked on the U.S. Mint eagles sales web page yesterday, as an absolutely stunning 44,500 ounces of gold eagles were sold...along with 3,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes. There were no silver eagles reported sold.

Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Tuesday, they reported receiving 633,807 troy ounces of silver...and shipped 60,711 troy ounces of the stuff out the door. The link to that activity is here.

Here's a table of numbers from Washington state reader S.A. that needs no further explanation from me.

This chart, also courtesy of Washington state reader S.A., shows the sad state of affairs that exists on Toronto's Venture Exchange. I have an amazing story about this in the 'Critical Reads' section that's more than worth your while...but if you don't want to scroll down to find it, the link is here.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Here's a chart from Nick Laird that you're more than familiar with..."Largest Traders Short vs. Days of World Production"

(Click on image to enlarge)

Here's the other side of the coin that you never see..."Largest Traders Long vs. Days of World Production".

(Click on image to enlarge)

A couple of things about this chart. First is the much smaller 'Days to Cover' positions of the 'Big 4' and 'Big 8' in three of the four precious metals. The second take-away from this chart is that the participants on the long side are not colluding to keep the price up, like JPMorgan Chase/Scotiabank et al are colluding on the short side to keep prices suppressed in all four precious metals. The other point interest is that Ted Butler says that there are a couple of the largest traders on the long side of silver that hold more contracts than they're legally allowed to...so the CFTC's position limits aren't being enforced on either side of the short/long equation in silver. And lastly, palladium is market neutral at this point...the longs and shorts positions are identical...a situation that we can only dream about in gold and silver.

I have a lot of stories for you today, so I hope you can find the time to read the ones you find the most interesting.

¤ Critical Reads

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America's Lost Decade In One Simple Chart

Forget the stock market's dismal decade of much-ado-about-nothing and ignore the U.S. Dollar's declination; when it comes to reflection on what this once great nation has 'created' since 2001, the following chart from Pennsylvania's Department of Public Welfare sums it up better than most.

The graph is certainly worth looking at...and the link to this tiny Zero Hedge story is here. I thank Marshall Angeles for sending it.

Fed's Evans Shifts to Bolder Target for Jobless Rate

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said the central bank should keep interest rates near zero until unemployment falls to 6.5 percent or below as long as inflation is under 2.5 percent, aligning himself more closely with other Fed officials.

Evans previously had proposed 7 percent for the jobless rate and 3 percent for inflation.

“I now think the 7 percent threshold is too conservative,” Evans said in the text of prepared remarks given in Toronto Tuesday. “I am aware that the 3 percent threshold makes many people anxious” as an inflation measure.

This story showed up on the moneynews.com web site on Tuesday evening...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for sending it our way. The link is here.

Kill the dollar bill, for $1 coins instead?

A nonpartisan, investigative arm of Congress is calling for the United States to stop printing dollar bills and switch entirely to $1 coins instead.

Why? Because the Government Accountability Office believes it could save Uncle Sam money.

A $1 coin typically costs about 30 cents for the U.S. Mint to produce, but then the government can sell them to Americans for a dollar each. That financial gain is called seigniorage, and over a period of 30 years, it could save the U.S. government about $4.4 billion, the GAO said. These coins typically last around 30 years.

In contrast, producing paper bills is cheaper, at about 5 cents apiece. But they also wear far more quickly. A typical $1 bill lasts only 4.7 years, according to GAO estimates.

The push is nothing new. The GAO has been recommending the change for the last 22 years, and will try again Thursday in a hearing before the House Financial Services Committee.

This story showed up on the cnn.com Internet site during the New York lunch hour yesterday...and I thank Mumbai, India reader Avinash Raheja for finding it for us. The link is here.

Fitch downgrades Argentina and predicts default

Credit rating agency Fitch has downgraded Argentina, which is locked in a court battle in New York over its debt, and said the country would probably default.

Fitch cut its long-term rating for Argentina to "CC" from "B," a downgrade of five notches, and cut its short-term rating to "C" from "B". A rating of "C" is one step above default, AP reported.

US judge Thomas Griesa of Manhattan federal court last week ordered Argentina to set aside $1.3bn for certain investors in its bonds by December 15, even as Argentina pursues appeals.

Those investors don't want to go along with a debt restructuring that followed an Argentine default in 2002. If Argentina is forced to pay in full, other holders of debt totaling more than $11bn are expected to demand immediate payment as well.

This story was posted on The Telegraph's website at almost midnight GMT on Tuesday...and I thank Marshall Angeles for his second offering in today's column. The link is here.

'The Euro Will Blow Up Europe Instead Of Bringing It Together'

“I cannot be disillusioned because I no longer have any illusions about Europe,” muttered Euro Group President Jean-Claude Juncker last week after the horse trading over Greece’s bailout had failed once again.

But he wasn’t the only one who lost his illusions.

“There are better alternatives to the bailout policies of Chancellor Merkel,” declares the man who’ll run against her in 2013; alternatives that “protect taxpayers and don’t only benefit the banks.”

This commentary was posted on the businessinsider.com Internet site late Wednesday afternoon...and I thank Roy Stephens for sharing it with us. The link is here.

The World from Berlin: 'Europe Hasn't Learned Lessons from Greece Crisis'

For the third time, European finance ministers this week have put together a package of aid measures for Greece and assured Europeans that the country is now back on track to financial health. But is it really? German commentators certainly don't think so.

Hedge fund managers, at least, are pleased. The deal struck late on Monday night between euro-zone finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund to reduce Greece's overall debt load includes a measure stipulating an Athens buyback of its own debt. Investors that bought Greek bonds for as low as 17 cents on the euro can now expect to sell them back to Athens for around 35 cents on the euro -- a tidy little profit.

Elsewhere, however, investors would appear to be unimpressed by the deal. Markets across the world were down on Wednesday and the euro lost value early against the dollar, with Greece cited -- along with US debt troubles -- as one of the reasons for the uncertainty. Investors, it would seem, see the Greece deal as yet another attempt by European leaders to muddle through the crisis rather than take steps toward a lasting solution.

That pretty much sums it up. This story was posted on the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and it's Roy Stephens' second offering in a row. The link is here.

Germany displaces China as US Treasury's currency villain

The US Treasury has issued a damning criticism of Germany’s chronic trade surplus in its annual report on worldwide exchange rate abuse, although it stopped short of labelling the country a currency manipulator.

Treasury officials told Congress that internal balances within the eurozone are disrupting the global trade structure, with almost nothing being done by north Europeans states to curb their huge surpluses.

The report said Germany’s current account surplus is running at 6.3pc of GDP, and Holland is even worse at 9.5pc. Yet the countries still cleave to fiscal austerity policies that constrict internal demand.

The EU’s new tool for cracking down on intra-EMU imbalances is "asymmetric" and does not give "sufficient attention to countries with large and sustained external surpluses like Germany".

If I were Germany, my answer to this would be to sell U.S. treasuries...and ask for all my gold back from the Federal Reserve vaults in New York. This Ambrose Evans-Pritchard blog was posted on The Telegraph's website early yesterday evening GMT...and I thank Manitoba reader Ulrike Marx for sending it our way. The link is here.

Anti-Semitism in Parliament Hungary's Far-Right Rhetoric Reaches New Dimension

People of Jewish heritage are a "security risk" and should be registered on a nationwide list, according to right-wing extremist Hungarian politician Márton Gyöngyösi. His comments, made in the country's parliament, have sparked widespread outrage. But the government was slow to distance itself.

Conversations with the right-wing extremist Hungarian politician Márton Gyöngyösi regularly devolve into tiring marathons of relativization. He's not an anti-Semite, he insists, but the Jews … ; he's not against the Roma, but the Gypsies … ; he's not an extremist in favor of dictatorships, but liberal democracy … has failed.

The 33-year-old economist and former tax advisor is not just some random right-winger, though. He is the deputy parliamentary floor leader for the Jobbik party, which won 17 percent of the vote in Hungary's 2010 elections. Gyöngyösi's parents work for Hungarian trade associations abroad and as he was growing up, he spent time in Egypt, Afghanistan, India and Iraq. Jobbik made him the party's foreign policy spokesman.

This is certainly getting ugly...and it will be interesting to see how this unfolds as time progresses. This is another story from the spiegel.de Internet site yesterday...and also another offering from Roy Stephens. The link is here.

Why China's New Leadership is a Lot Less Conservative Than Everyone Thinks

China’s recent leadership transition was widely depicted as a triumph for conservative hard-liners and a setback for the cause of reform – a characterization that has deepened the gloominess that pervades Western perceptions of China. In fact, nothing could be further from the truth.

Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang – the top two officials in China’s new governing council (the Standing Committee of the Politburo) – are both well educated, well traveled, and sophisticated thinkers who bring a wealth of experience to the many challenges that China faces. As so-called Fifth Generation leaders, they continue the steady progress in competence that has marked each of China’s leadership transitions since the emergence of Deng Xiaoping in the late 1970’s.

This commentary by Stephen Roach was posted on the businessinsider.com Internet site early yesterday afternoon Eastern time...and I thank Roy Stephens for his final contribution to today's column. The link is here.

Four King World News Blogs/Audio Interviews

The first blog is with Ron Rosen...and it's entitled "Key Targets for Gold, Silver, Miners & Common Stocks". The next blog contains data that Eric borrowed/stole from the latest Investors Intelligence report. It's entitled "Here is a Huge Key to the Markets". The last blog is with Richard Russell...and it bears the title "Bursting Bubbles Will Make Things Far Worse". The audio interview is with James Turk

52% of the TSX Venture Exchange is 10 cents or less

Earlier this month the TMX Group was touting the 26 new issuers it welcomed in October. Ten were from the mining sector and of those 10, seven listed on the TSX-V. The TSX-V now has 2,436 companies listed, many of which are in the mining sector. What the exchange has not been touting, however, are the low prices of its battered listings. As of today, 1,266 TSX-V-listed companies, or 51.9 per cent, closed at 10 cents or under; 743 companies, or 30.5 per cent, closed at five cents or under.

This short story, which is worth the read, was posted on the stockwatch.com Internet site late on Tuesday evening...and I thank reader U.D. for bringing it to our attention. The link is here.

Canada's Bank of Montreal Launches Silver Deposit Program

BMO Financial Group is expanding its Canadian precious metals deposit service offering with the addition of the BMO Vaulted Physical Silver Deposit Program. BMO launched its Gold Deposit Program in September 2011.

"Since the launch of our Gold Deposit Program, there has been an overwhelming amount of demand for real physical precious metals products in the Canadian marketplace," said Simon Carling, Managing Director, BMO Capital Markets. "Physical silver offerings that completely avoid the use of derivatives, unallocated metal, or certificates are surprisingly difficult to find-which may explain why they are so highly sought after."

BMO's vault-based programs are designed to take the guesswork out of a physical precious metal investment. All programs are backed on an ounce-for-ounce basis with real, physical bullion at all times.

This is just another brick in the wall for JPMorgan/Scotiabank et al. I thank reader 'Mike' for sharing this short read with us...and the link is here.

'Counterintuitive' sure is the word for the gold market

Yesterday's commentary by Ross Norman of Sharps Pixley Ltd., the London bullion brokerage, notes today's "counterintuitive" smash down in gold on the opening of the New York futures market, which he writes was probably a "short play" trying to trigger sell stops with the sudden dumping of 24 (paper) tonnes of metal.

Of course GATA partisans are tediously familiar with such "counterintuitive" moves in gold. At GATA's Gold Rush 21 conference in Dawson City, Yukon Territory, Canada, in August 2005, South African gold market analyst Peter George said: "In the last 10 years central banks have effectively shown that when there's a real crisis, gold actually goes down. It's so blatant, it's a joke."

The link to Ross Norman's commentary from yesterday is embedded in this GATA release...and it's definitely worth reading. The link is here.

Lawrence Williams: Yesterday's gold smash is great advertising for GATA

MineWeb's Lawrence Williams marvels at yesterday's sudden pummeling of gold at the New York open and figures that it was great advertising for GATA.

Williams writes: "We have seen this happen in silver and in gold from time to time -- talk about ammunition for those who suggest the gold price is being suppressed or manipulated by central banks and allied bullion banks. There seems to be little other logical explanation for this kind of activity. It could even turn long-term suppression deniers into GATA adherents - and if you do start trending toward this viewpoint, the few-and-far-between GATA-organized conferences are much more fun and interesting than the mainstream gold ones, even if some of the views expressed by audience members (and the odd speaker) may stretch credulity in the other direction."

Williams adds: "You probably shouldn't let the manipulators, whether government-backed or not, put the frighteners on you but see such short-term price falls as an opportunity to buy rather than as a reason to get out of gold."

I thank Chris Powell for wordsmithing "all of the above"...and I thank Ulrike Marx for being the first reader through the door with this mineweb.com story from yesterday. Even your humble scribe gets a mention...and the link to this must read article is here.

Aiming to boost gold reserves, China sees 'fundamental market shortage'

China aims to have domestic gold production reach 450 metric tons by the end of 2015, a rise of around 25% from 2011, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said Monday.

The ministry forecast rising domestic demand for gold and a "huge amount of room" for the industry's development due to gold's safe-haven and wealth-preserving properties, it said.

Still, domestic consumption is likely to exceed 1,000 tons by the end of 2015, "widening the fundamental market shortage," the ministry noted.

This rather short item was filed from Beijing on Monday...and is posted on the marketwatch.com Internet site. I found the story in a GATA release yesterday...and it's another must read...and the link is here.

¤ The Funnies

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¤ The Wrap

The 21,000 additional silver contracts that JPMorgan shorted since July were sold to satisfy tech fund buying demand...and nothing else. I am also saying that without JPMorgan shorting COMEX silver so aggressively and exclusively, the price would have climbed much higher. There is no way that this specific set of circumstances is not price manipulation. This is what gives me the nerve to call the bank crooked. - Silver analyst Ted Butler...28 November 2012

Well, we didn't have to wait long for that engineered price decline by JPMorgan Chase et al that I spoke of in yesterday's column. Less than five hours after I filed it, down went the price of all four precious metals in unison. Nothing free market about that.

As Lawrie Williams said in his mineweb.com commentary further up..."You probably shouldn't let the manipulators, whether government-backed or not, put the frighteners on you but see such short-term price falls as an opportunity to buy rather than as a reason to get out of gold."

Of course that applies to silver and the other two precious metals as well.

I should point out that "da boyz" pulled this stunt the day after the cut-off for Friday's Commitment of Traders Report, so we won't know what happened for sure until December 7th...and if you think that the choice of days to hit the precious metals was pure chance...I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.

And as Ted Butler said in his mid-week commentary to his paying subscribers yesterday, there's no way of knowing if this sell-off has run its course, or whether there is more to come. I don't know the answer to that either, but nothing would surprise me...and as I said in previous columns, you should prepare yourself emotionally for anything that JPMorgan Chase/Scotiabank et al have to throw at you between now and the end of the year.

This evening the CME will post the deliveries for Day One of the December delivery month...and I must admit that I'm not sure to what to expect...but whatever the numbers are, I'll have them for you in tomorrow's column.

In Far East trading for most of the Thursday trading session, there wasn't any price activity worth mentioning. However a positive bias began to develop around 3:00 p.m. Hong Kong time...an hour before the London open. This has continued for the first hour of the London trading session...and it remains to be seen how far this state of affairs is allowed to continue.

The gross volume numbers are very heavy...and there are still a lot of roll-overs out of the November contract...but there's also a lot of trading going on in the next delivery months...which is February for gold and March for silver.

The dollar index, which had been trading pretty flat all through the Hong Kong trading session, began to head south about a half hour before London opened...and is down about 11 basis points as of this writing...4:04 a.m. Eastern time.

And as I hit the 'send' button at 5:15 a.m...gold and silver prices [along with platinum and palladium] are continuing their smallish rallies...volumes are very decent...and the dollar index is down about 17 basis points. The Comex trading session in New York could prove interesting today.

Before heading off to bed, I'd like to take this opportunity to mention the fact that Doug Casey has a new book coming out very soon...and it would be my guess that it's a must read. It bears the title "Totally Incorrect"...which pretty much sums up Doug's persona in two words. The cost of his new tome is US$14.95...46% off the retail price...and a pittance in the grand scheme of things. If you have any interest at all, you can find out more by clicking here.

See you on Friday...Saturday west of the International Date Line.

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