Rationale for AUM Share Retention
posted on
Feb 01, 2013 04:20PM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
We are all frustrated by the manipulation going on in the markets and by the very discouraging price performance of AUM shares. It would be easy to give up on this investment and to not do so requires one to rationalize that some day the share price will recover to the extent that we will not only be made whole but will actually realize a profit.
My own rationale, which I will state here briefly, is quite unsophisticated and easy to criticize but necessary to keep in mind if I want to avoid doing something I will live to regret. AUM owns the rights to significant proven metal resources in areas of the world that are more stable than many. Unlike most junior miners AUM has production that will soon make the company cash flow positive with a well defined plan for increases in both tons and dollars. Management communicates their plans clearly and, except for unforeseen negative events, follows them through to completion. Forecasting is a mug's game but it appears that gold and silver prices could increase substantially over the near to medium term. Individual executives hold significant personal positions in the stock. Roughly two-thirds of the share float is held by well-financed institutions that would not sell into a lowball offer from an outside source.
As to the criticisms of management for not convincing the regulators to clamp down on obvious illegal activities and so on I don't believe that we have any way of knowing what is or is not being done in that area. Management could not disclose such activities if there are any going on and they may have decided, and I would tend to agree, that a small player like AUM has insufficient influence to make any change in any case. Far better that they spend their time executing and delivering on their plan to make a significant profit in the future.
We are all hoping that once AUM does become profitable and can demonstrate that they will continue to do so into the foreseeable future that "the market" will like what it sees and will bid the share price up to the full value of that performance. To give up on the company at this stage is to admit that the manipulators can't be beaten and that the game is over.