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Message: Re: Does it ever end?
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Apr 23, 2013 04:02PM
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Apr 25, 2013 09:06AM
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Apr 25, 2013 10:33AM
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Apr 25, 2013 03:43PM
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Apr 25, 2013 03:58PM
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Apr 25, 2013 04:27PM

I hope so as well. It's hard to imagine that next weeks jobs number will be anything but mediocre at best given the poor US data now for weeks on end. Of course the fix could be in as we have seen on occasion.

Tomorrow will reveal the Q1 GDP data and I suspect it is weaker than consensus given the poor data since for March and expect a revision lower in a few weeks so this GDP data should not be much help tomorrow.

That leaves the FED meeting next week as the wild card but it would seem to me this it is a foregone conclusion (no mystery here) it will be bullish for QE and maybe even a hint of increasing QE as opposed to the constant drivel from US commentators about QE decreasing. While I don't agree with FED QE policy per se, I have been constantly amazed for weeks about discussion of decreasing QE as this makes absolutely no sense given what those who control the FED (Bernanke, Yellen & Dudley) keep saying and given history. First of all the FED would never start a program of this significance only to decrease it but a few months later, these programs last normally a minimum of a year and given the aggressive nature of this $85 billion of monthly printing I would assume Bernanke was really scared when he initiated it and I think it is worse now not better. It's more likely to see QE eventually increased to over $100 billion per month before being decreased in any way.

I do acknowledge that the gold take down probably will make it easier for Bernanke to print more and at the very least maintain the present printing for much longer than the talking heads suggest or think. I also note the huge Japnese printing machine is finally getting wound up and the EU will cut rates before starting more aggressive direct and indirect printing of their own probably by the summer sometime. All the major central bansk are either printing or will be printing simultaneously, this is quite extraordinary and certainly they don't need gold/silver blowing the whistle or making their actions more difficult and controversial. This is on top of historical low interest rates that will remian so for as far as the eye can see. I simply don't know how rates will get back to any kind of normal as the interest would drive most government budget revenue into the ground and suck huge amounts of money out of the tax & spend system.

This may mean a good week for gold next week which of course would be the opposite of what we usually get from such a week. I remain hopeful but on guard as they have trained us like monkeys to expect the worse even when it should be the best.

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Apr 25, 2013 08:36PM
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