Hi Bill,

I have been checking the Fibonacci numbers for silver. The golden fibonacci number is 1.61803 and the golden ratio is -0.61803. The silver bear market low price was in 1991 at $3.508/ounce. The ensuing bull market high London Fix was $48.70/ounce on 4/28/2011. The total move was $45.192 and when multiplied by the golden ratio yields $27.93 which should be the total drop from the high. This gives a silver price target of $20.77/ounce. Since the total wave 1 rise was $45.192 the next minor wave up should be $45.192 x 1.61803 + $20.77 = $93.44/ounce. If 1991 thru April 2011 was wave 1 up and from April 2011 thru the next couple of days is wave 2 down, the next major wave up is 3 which is normally larger in ratio than 1. Since wave 1 was $48.70/$3.508 = 13.88 fold, the wave 3 should get us to at least $20.77 x 13.88 = $288.34/ounce. I know James Turk has predicted a silver target of $400/ounce so I may not be completely nuts here.

For physical buyers looking to purchase, $20.77/ounce is not alot of downside from today and I imagine all the geeks at the banks and hedge funds are looking at close to $20.77 as a major buy point so if we get down there, it might not be for long.

*

Tonight it looks like the silver low was about $20.83 which is just a few cents higher than my $20.77 prediction. We now need to clear $20.83 x 1.61803 = $33.70 in order to establish $20.83 as the low of a major wave and for the bull market to remain the longterm trend.