Re: Lost mentors
in response to
by
posted on
Feb 03, 2014 01:14AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
So much I want to say as a respose to Baba's post.
If a market goes up for 12 years in a row doesn't it seem likely that a correction should occur and for how long? Things don't go up forever. Wouldn't a correction of up to 50% from top to bottom of this 12 year move seem logical? Shouldn't a correction last between 2-3 years with a bottom formation and base building where a stuck trading range at the end of a correction will wear out the remaining players out of the sector entirely before the next move up begins?
If gold has made a 50% correction why wouldn't the dollar mirror that move up in the same manner in the opposite direction. The dollar is at 81 why isn't it around 95?
Sinclair made a comment at his shareholders meeting in 2007 during the good times stating that most investors can not stomach what will be coming in the future. There is nothing more volitile than the PM markets and it will set you hair on fire and burn those that don't have the patience.
Which brings me to your next comment, "The tapering figured to come to an end, the question was when, really not if. Yet, many said it would never end. It may be coming to an end this year, or perhaps they throw it in neutral or reverse, but eventually it will end."
If the dollar is at 81 and not 95 the QE that is used to support the treasury markets the mortgage backed securities, and the derivitives market will come from where if tapered? Do you really think the financial system can support itself if QE is pulled? If major world countries are pulling the support by not purchasing the quantities of treasuries needed to keep the dollar strong where will the difference come from? With the recent actions in the middle east is the petro dollar at risk and if so how do you rectify that situation that will settle in currencies other than the dollar? I would suggest you watch the Mike Maloney series the "Hidden Secrets of Money" to realize the debt / money creation must expand exponentially or the currency crashes.
"A group of people who take a view as far off the mainstream as many who post here do, are likely to be wrong, for whatever reason, good or bad."
If you follow the mainstream media for anything related to the precious metals one word of advice get out now and never come back. There is nothing more despised, hated, and misinformed than the media and the need to discredit anything that threatens the dollar. Where was the media back in the early 2000s through 2010 when the price of pm's were soaring? There is plenty of discussion today because they want everyone to think this is the worst sector to possibly consider. Do you think it's a coincidence that there is more press on the pm's over the last 2 years than the last 10 years combined? In the late 1990's the media couldn't stop talking about how great high techs were. Why didn't pm's get the same treatment during that it's incredible 12 year run as the techs did? Why after the crash in 2000 of the techs were techs still being promoted positively while the pm market immediately became the most hated sector after it's 1900 top? Why doesn't the media report about the flow of gold going into the BRICS countries? Why is the media not reporting on the German repatriation of their gold? Why is the media not covering the huge cultural gold issues facing the Indian population and why it's being smuggled into the country? Why is the media not reporting the JP Morgan headquarters that holds the gold for the Fed has recently been purchased by a holding company for the Chinese government?
"And has Trader Dan been permanentlly retired by Eric King? Too bad, it seems his year end vacation has been extended, and Trader Dan was one of the few correct voices over the past 18 months or so."
I couldn't agee with you more on this subject. He has been spot on correct but his advise is for traders that trade the markets for the shortest periods of time and not for longer term traders. In fact as I stated above we are in the wear you out trading range bound base building stage. If you listen to Dan what has he stated over and over and over every week since mid summer 2013 is that we are stuck in a trading range of 1180 on the low side and 1270 on the high side. Until 1270 is broken with volume we will continue to be range bound.
Lastly the taper talk from last week has been very disruptive to the emerging markets. The fed will closely watch the flow of dollars built as money flows from the weak countries back into the dollar. If the flow into new dollars isn't great enough QE will be resumed. Do you really think that Venezuela, Bolivia, Turkey, Thailand, and the Ukraine as examples will take the place of QE?