Cockerel,

With the US midterm elections happening in November, I feel the numbers will be cooked beyond all recognition.

But if Iraq splits into three countries or the Middle East explodes into a regional war with Syria, Turkey, Iraq, Isreal, Iran...and the Soviot Union with the US fingerprints all over the whole mess; that will be good for the PM's and oil if you bet that way.

and oil production is effected, that could be interesting.

If Iraq simply went away as it becomes part of Iran, Syria, Turkey and Kurdistan I think it would be better for the world...but maybe not for US interests.