Next week's economic highlights include the Treasury Budget on Tuesday, Retail Sales, Import and Export Prices, Business Inventories, and the fed's Beige Book on Wednesday, Initial Jobless Claims, PPI, Empire Manufacturing, and the Philadelphia Fed on Thursday, and CPI, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Michigan Sentiment, and Net Long-Term TIC Flows on Friday.

Over the holidays the gold open forward rate (GOFO) stayed negative, signalling a continuing shortage of physical gold in the market. The pattern of GOFO has been to go more negative on dips below $1200, which suggests that physical buyers have been accumulating bullion at that level.

In the three trading days between Christmas and New Year the Shanghai Gold Exchange delivered a further 28.96 tonnes, giving a total delivered into Chinese wholesale markets for the year of 2,102.36 tonnes, compared with 2,194.99 tonnes in 2013. This is a remarkable figure, and with a revival in Indian demand following relaxation of import restrictions, China and India are officially absorbing the world's mine supply between them, given that there is strong evidence that China's domestic mine output is quietly absorbed by the State.

Next week

Monday

Japan - Bank Lending Data, Current Account.

Tuesday

Japan - Economy Watchers Survey, M2 Money Supply.
UK - CPI, Input Prices, ONS House Prices, Output Prices.
US - Budget Balance.

Wednesday

Eurozone - Industrial Production.
US - Import Price Index, Retail Sales, Business Inventories.
Japan - Key Machinery Orders.

Thursday

Eurozone - Trade Balance.
US - Empire State Survey, Initial Claims, PPI.

Friday

Eurozone - HICP.
US - CPI, Capacity Utilisation, Industrial Production, Net Long-Term TICS Flows.