Re: A question for Fishbeecee and Others
in response to
by
posted on
Feb 11, 2010 04:43PM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
Fishbeecee,
First of all, excellent post.
You state that the following things could really get this stock moving:
1) Price of Gold.
2) Incredible drill results.
3) Takeover.
I agree with all of these, and would like to add to your list, as well as add some comments.
1a) I think you summed up the POG argument very well. Not much to add here.
2a) Incredible drill results. Brookbank has continued to produce steady, solid drill results. They have not been earth shattering, but they have been very good. We are hitting gold at 1000+ meters and there has been no evidence of the structure stopping at depth. Couple this with the new Brookbank East zone, which the company has announced they plan on further exploring this year and the potential is very good. Keep in mind that Brookbank is just one property. Don't forget about Leitch + Northern Empire + Hardrock. Hardrock has turned out the best drill results of all, in my opinion, and they are only going to get better as PG has announced a 3 drill, 70,000 meter program for 2010. I'm a firm believer that the Hardrock estimate, which is due out this month, is going to be VERY good, and is going to have a very positive influence on our share price. Right now, GRC has a total combined NI43-101 resource estimate of just under 1M ounces (Brookbank + Roxmark Properties). I think our combined NI 43-101 ounces is going to come close to doubling within the next month when this Hardrock estimate comes out. I think this is our best short term hope for a sudden spike.
3a) A takeover can certainly influence the share price. Do I see this happening near term (6-12 months)? Probably not. Typically majors will not consider a takeover until you have proven up a sizeable (4-5M+ ounces). HOWEVER, if a major sees big enough POTENTIAL, they may try for a takeover while the proven ounces are still low, so get the property for cheaper instead of paying a premium for proven ounces.
What else could get the stock moving?
4) Institutional interest would be the next big thing. If management can get mutual funds, investment banks, and big money interested, this could cause a big SP jump. What do you think would happen if a mutual fund decided they want to buy 5M shares in the public market? Sheridan has the funds invested in GUY, so we know he has the connections and capabilities to do this with GRC. Sprott picked up 250,000 shares a few weeks ago, certainly a good sign.
Why do I think the SP has suffered in the past month or so?
I think it’s a combination of a couple of reasons.
Rumors that a large shareholder (Metalore) dumped a significant amount of shares. This can cause downward pressure on any stock. The second reason is management, in my opinion, has not done a very good job of keeping retailers apprised of what is going on. The Brookbank drills results were held on to for much longer than necessary, and I think this pissed a lot of people off. Also, since the merger, the company has not come out and given any sense of direction on what their plans are. Sure, they have said they plan to continue drilling, but that is obvious. I think a prime example of a company that does an excellent job of keeping shareholders apprised is PG. They have clearly stated that they plan on releasing semi-monthly press releases, they update the public of progress on all developments, when things can be expected, etc..
For example, as a GRC shareholder, I have no idea right now whether drills are operating, how many drills are operating, what the planned 2010 exploration budget is, when we can expect a 43-101 for Brookbank, etc. This lack of transparency is the other reason for the SP decline. There is a big part of me that thinks this is intentional, however, as they are trying to shake shares out of weak hands. If you don’t believe me, check the insider reports - insiders have scooped up 300,000+ shares during this down trend.