Please see this report from April 2009 on Ontex:
http://mineralfields.com/pdf/ONTEX.pdf

In April, 2009, gold was trading at $925/oz, and according to this report, the market was paying an average of $29.33/oz. In other words, about 3.17% the POG. Yesterday, we agreed that our total NI43-101 resource is 1.1M ounces. This estimate assumed a 3.4 g/t cutoff for the Brookbank region, and a 1.0 g/t cutoff for the 30% interest in Hardrock. This 1.1M ounce estimate includes Brookbank at just under 700k, Northern Empire at 50k, and Hardrock at just over 300k.

The 1.1M ounce estimate does NOT include any ounces added by the 2009 drilling program at Brookbank, the Kailey open pit zone at hard rock, the new 83/93 zones, Hardrock underground, Key Lake, or Sand River/Leitch.

Assuming the market is still paying 3.17% the POG for proven ounces in the ground, this works out to about $34.87 assuming a $1100/oz gold price. This works out to to just over $38M. The market is currently valuing GRC at $73.5M.

So where does the other $35M come from? I'm guessing GRC has about $8-9M in cash, so this would leave the remaining $26M or so to be accounted for by the mill, and possibly some of those ounces that aren't accounted for in the 1.1M I quoted above. As poster on another board concluded yesterday, $.75/share might not be an unreasonable share price right now.

The question now becomes, how many ounces do we REALLY have? Historically, finding costs have been about $17/oz at Brookbank, according to the report I linked to above (page 18). The 2009 ONT drilling budget was about $2.3M. That would imply an additional 135,000 oz were discovered by the 2009 drill program. I estimated the number of ounces to be about 70,000. Let's average this out and estimate 100k.

Does anyone know what our 2010 exploration budget is? If we assume that it's $8m, this would imply that we could add an additional 470k ounces on our 100% owned properties. This number could be higher if we hit some great grades at Sand River/Leitch and Key Lake.

So far, this would imply a potential "future ounce" estimate at 1.1M (current) + 100k (2009 brookbank drill program) + 470k (2010 GRC program) which would put us at 1.7M ounces.

How many open pit ounces are at Kailey, 83, and 93? 500k? 1M? any guesses? If 500k, that adds 150k to our resource, if 1M, that adds 300k. Let's average it out to 225k.

How many ounces does Hardrock have underground? 1M? 2M? They have hit some VERY good intercepts deep and are planning a 70,000 M drill program for 2010. If 1M, that adds 300k to our resource. If 2M, that adds 600k ounces. Let's average it out to 450k.

So, what does that potentially bring us up to by the end of 2010?
1.7M + 225k + 450k = 2.375M ounces.

At $34/oz, that works out to $80.75M and I estimated that the market is currently valuing "other assets" in this company at 35M for a total valuation of 115M or $1.15/share.

A poster on another board pointed out that Kinross paid just over $100/oz in a recent takeout - I would estimate a takeout target of about $260M or $2.60 share.

Thoughts/Comments?