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Message: Action Notes Equity Research...

Action Notes Equity Research...

posted on Apr 24, 2008 10:03AM

Action Notes Equity Research...

April 21, 2008

Action Notes Equity Research

IAMGOLD Corp.

(IMG-T, IAG-N) C$7.13

Future of Quimsacocha Uncertain

Event

On Friday a new mining mandate was passed in Ecuador which appears to

effectively suspend all mining and exploration activity for 180 days and

revokes approximately 80% of the mining concessions currently outstanding.

Impact- Negative

While it isn’t clear what impact this new mandate will have on IAMGOLD’s

Quimsacocha development project, we have removed this asset from our

valuation reflecting the uncertainty. We don’t believe the market was giving

much value to this asset in IAMGOLD’s share price, however it is important

to IAMGOLD given their declining production profile.

Details

The key clauses of the new mandate which we believe could impact

Quimsacocha are as follows:

Operations on all medium to large sized operations are to be

suspended for a period of 180 days during which time the government

will form a new mining code. IAMGOLD will likely have to suspend all

exploration activity at Quimsacocha, however the company is already in

a position which will allow it to complete the prefeasibility scheduled for

July 2008.

Maximum of three mining concessions per entity. While the

Quimsacocha property consists of 4 concessions, the main resource is

within one concession. The only negative impact here would likely be

reduced regional exploration potential.

Creation of a national state mining company. This could potentially

mean the government will get a stake in mining projects (likely a free

carried stake) which would negatively impact valuation.

Concessions terminated due to lack of investment, unpaid fees,

absence of environmental impact studies, tax issues, or inside a

protected area. We don’t believe these apply to Quimsacocha.

Result – Removing Quimsacocha from our Valuation

To reflect the Ecuador risk, we had been discounting Quimsacocha at 8% (above our normal 5%) and the

project represented approximately 10% of our NAV. We are now removing it from our valuation to reflect a

worst-case scenario. As a result, our NAV declines to $8.95 (down from $9.90).

Valuation

We calculate a base case NAV for IAMGOLD of C$8.95. IAMGOLD currently trades at 0.8 times NAV and

7 times 2009E cash flow. This represents a discount to its mid-tier producing peer average of 1.1 times NAV

and 10 times cash flow.

Justification of Target Price

We have arrived at our target price of $11.00 (down from $14.00) by using a 1.2x NAV multiple (down from

1.4x reflecting a declining production profile and lower sector multiples). We value IAMGOLD at the low end

of our 1.2 to 2.5 times P/NAV valuation range for gold producers to reflect the company's high operating cost

profile and lack of near-term production growth.

Key Risks to Target Price

Commodity price, construction, operating and capital cost increases, technical, political, multiple contraction,

key management retention following Cambior merger, effect of exchange rate and interest rate changes on our

forecasts and commodity price assumptions, and permitting risks.

Investment Conclusion

While it isn’t clear what impact this new mandate will have on Quimsacocha, we have removed this asset from

our valuation reflecting a worst case scenario. We don’t believe the market was giving much value to this

asset in IAMGOLD’s share price, however it is important to IAMGOLD given their declining production

profile. Given the extreme discount in IAMGOLD’s current valuation we continue believe this represents a

defensive way to gain exposure to gold, also the company does appear to have the financial flexibility to make

acquisitions to address their lack of a development pipeline. We are maintaining a BUY recommendation

however we are lowering our target price to $11.00 (down from $14.00).

Gold & Precious Minerals

Recommendation: BUY

Unchanged

Risk: HIGH

12-Month Target Price: C$11.00

Prior: C$14.00

12-Month Total Return: 55.1%

Market Data (C$)

Current Price $7.13

52-Wk Range $6.81-$10.25

Mkt Cap (f.d.)($mm) $2,116.9

Dividend per Share $0.06

Dividend Yield 0.8%

A vg. Daily Trading Vol. (3mths) 1,679,083

Financial Data (C$)

Fiscal Y-E December

Shares O/S (f.d.)(mm) 296.9

Shares O/S (basic)(mm) 293.7

Float Shares (mm) 296.9

Net Debt/Tot Cap 0.0%

N AVPS (current)(f.d.) $8.95

Estimates (US$)

Year 2006A 2007A 2008E 2009E

EBITDA ($mm) 144.1 206.3 364.3 379.5

EPS (f.d.) 0.39 0.24 0.53 0.57

C FPS (f.d.) 0.48 0.47 0.89 1.03

EPS (f.d.) Quarterly Estimates (US$)

Year 2006A 2007A 2008E 2009E

Q1 0.13 0.04 0.13 --

Q2 0.17 0.04 0.14 --

Q3 0.08 0.07 0.13 --

Q 4 0.04 0.09 0.12 --

Valuations

Year 2006A 2007A 2008E 2009E

P/E (f.d.) 18.1x 29.4x 13.3x 12.4x

P /CFPS (f.d.) 14.7x 15.0x 7.9x 6.9x

All figures in US$, unless otherwise specified.

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