Action Notes Equity Research...
posted on
Apr 24, 2008 10:03AM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
Action Notes Equity Research...
April 21, 2008
Action Notes Equity Research
IAMGOLD Corp.
(IMG-T, IAG-N) C$7.13
Future of Quimsacocha Uncertain
Event
On Friday a new mining mandate was passed in Ecuador which appears to
effectively suspend all mining and exploration activity for 180 days and
revokes approximately 80% of the mining concessions currently outstanding.
Impact- Negative
While it isn’t clear what impact this new mandate will have on IAMGOLD’s
Quimsacocha development project, we have removed this asset from our
valuation reflecting the uncertainty. We don’t believe the market was giving
much value to this asset in IAMGOLD’s share price, however it is important
to IAMGOLD given their declining production profile.
Details
The key clauses of the new mandate which we believe could impact
Quimsacocha are as follows:
Operations on all medium to large sized operations are to be
suspended for a period of 180 days during which time the governmentwill form a new mining code. IAMGOLD will likely have to suspend all
exploration activity at Quimsacocha, however the company is already in
a position which will allow it to complete the prefeasibility scheduled for
July 2008.
Maximum of three mining concessions per entity. While the
Quimsacocha property consists of 4 concessions, the main resource is
within one concession. The only negative impact here would likely be
reduced regional exploration potential.
Creation of a national state mining company. This could potentially
mean the government will get a stake in mining projects (likely a free
carried stake) which would negatively impact valuation.
Concessions terminated due to lack of investment, unpaid fees,
absence of environmental impact studies, tax issues, or inside a
protected area. We don’t believe these apply to Quimsacocha.
Result – Removing Quimsacocha from our Valuation
To reflect the Ecuador risk, we had been discounting Quimsacocha at 8% (above our normal 5%) and the
project represented approximately 10% of our NAV. We are now removing it from our valuation to reflect a
worst-case scenario. As a result, our NAV declines to $8.95 (down from $9.90).
Valuation
We calculate a base case NAV for IAMGOLD of C$8.95. IAMGOLD currently trades at 0.8 times NAV and
7 times 2009E cash flow. This represents a discount to its mid-tier producing peer average of 1.1 times NAV
and 10 times cash flow.
Justification of Target Price
We have arrived at our target price of $11.00 (down from $14.00) by using a 1.2x NAV multiple (down from
1.4x reflecting a declining production profile and lower sector multiples). We value IAMGOLD at the low end
of our 1.2 to 2.5 times P/NAV valuation range for gold producers to reflect the company's high operating cost
profile and lack of near-term production growth.
Key Risks to Target Price
Commodity price, construction, operating and capital cost increases, technical, political, multiple contraction,
key management retention following Cambior merger, effect of exchange rate and interest rate changes on our
forecasts and commodity price assumptions, and permitting risks.
Investment Conclusion
While it isn’t clear what impact this new mandate will have on Quimsacocha, we have removed this asset from
our valuation reflecting a worst case scenario. We don’t believe the market was giving much value to this
asset in IAMGOLD’s share price, however it is important to IAMGOLD given their declining production
profile. Given the extreme discount in IAMGOLD’s current valuation we continue believe this represents a
defensive way to gain exposure to gold, also the company does appear to have the financial flexibility to make
acquisitions to address their lack of a development pipeline. We are maintaining a BUY recommendation
however we are lowering our target price to $11.00 (down from $14.00).
Gold & Precious Minerals
Recommendation: BUY
Unchanged
Risk: HIGH
12-Month Target Price: C$11.00
Prior: C$14.00
12-Month Total Return: 55.1%
Market Data (C$)
Current Price $7.13
52-Wk Range $6.81-$10.25
Mkt Cap (f.d.)($mm) $2,116.9
Dividend per Share $0.06
Dividend Yield 0.8%
A vg. Daily Trading Vol. (3mths) 1,679,083
Financial Data (C$)
Fiscal Y-E December
Shares O/S (f.d.)(mm) 296.9
Shares O/S (basic)(mm) 293.7
Float Shares (mm) 296.9
Net Debt/Tot Cap 0.0%
N AVPS (current)(f.d.) $8.95
Estimates (US$)
Year 2006A 2007A 2008E 2009E
EBITDA ($mm) 144.1 206.3 364.3 379.5
EPS (f.d.) 0.39 0.24 0.53 0.57
C FPS (f.d.) 0.48 0.47 0.89 1.03
EPS (f.d.) Quarterly Estimates (US$)
Year 2006A 2007A 2008E 2009E
Q1 0.13 0.04 0.13 --
Q2 0.17 0.04 0.14 --
Q3 0.08 0.07 0.13 --
Q 4 0.04 0.09 0.12 --
Valuations
Year 2006A 2007A 2008E 2009E
P/E (f.d.) 18.1x 29.4x 13.3x 12.4x
P /CFPS (f.d.) 14.7x 15.0x 7.9x 6.9x
All figures in US$, unless otherwise specified.