Cannacord target update at $1.20
posted on
Dec 03, 2009 01:58AM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
Iberian Minerals Corp. | Orest Wowkodaw, CA, CFA, 1.416.869.3092
IZN : TSX-V : C
.47 | C$158.5M | Buy , Target C$1.20
•Q3 results; US$50 million credit facility in the works; maintaining BUY rating;
target trimmed to C$1.20
Event
Iberian reported an adjusted Q3/09 operating loss of
.05 fd, slightly below our estimate
of earnings of
.01 fd and the First Call consensus of a loss of
.02 largely due to higher
taxes. Iberian also reaffirmed its 2010 production guidance. While the company’s expected
funding shortfall during ramp up has increased to US$40-45 million (from US$20-30
million), Iberian has awarded a US$50.0 million revolving credit facility mandate, which is
anticipated to close in January 2010.
Impact
Mixed.
Action
We reiterate our BUY rating but are modestly reducing our 12-month target price to
C$1.20 (from C$1.25). Our revised $1.20 target is based on a 2010 EV/EBITDA multiple of
4.5x. Our BUY rating is based on the company’s very attractive relative valuation and low
risk/cost asset base. A successful ramp up at Aguas Tenidas and the roll off of low priced
copper hedges are critical milestones required to achieve a re-rating in the shares over the
next 12 months.
Valuation
Iberian is currently trading at very attractive 2010E and 2011E EV/EBITDA multiples of
2.3x and 1.4x and at a massive 72.0% discount to our revised 10% NPV valuation of $1.68
per share, which compares to our mid-tier base metal producer coverage universe average
of 5.5x, 3.6x and a 5.7% premium to NPV.